How the 2010 NFL Draft will transform the Big Ten - Part II
The deadline for declaring for the 2010 NFL Draft was Friday, January 15. As a follow up to an earlier diary, "How the 2010 NFL Draft will transform the Big Ten", I wanted to review the players who actually left college and how the Big Ten will change as a result.
Many prognosticators suggested that this year's draft would set a record for the most juniors to leave early. Some said that as many as 75 underclassmen would put their names in for draft consideration. It was a record-tying year for early entrants, but not the mass exodus that many predicted. 53 underclassmen declared that they would be available for draft consideration by NFL teams; tying the previous high set in 2008 and exceeding the 46 that declared last year.
As I discussed in my earlier diary, the reasons this draft inspired so many players to consider early entry were all related to the expiring labor agreement between NFL players and owners, and the chances of a lockout in 2011. Changes in the new contract might limit both player rookie earnings and prospects for free agency, so many agents were encouraging players to take a shot now.
It sounds like the NFL went out of their way to discourage underclassmen from leaving early.
Roger Goodell's assertion that there won't be any changes to the rookie system until at after 2011 is probably true according to the Players Association. . . since they think that season will be locked out.
So what effect will early entry have on college football? Here's a list of players that have declared (I included the Scout star ranking when they left high school or junior college):
You'll notice that the list is made up of mostly 4 and 5 star players with an abundance of WRs and DEs. Overall it's hard to say that the departures of these players will have a major impact on next season in college football.
The Big Ten only ended up losing six players. So what kind of impact will departing players (including seniors) have on the Big Ten?
* indicates non-starting contributor
** indicates early entrant
Source: www.rivals.com, www.foxsports.com, www.scout.com
Since the conference didn't lose as many players as my original diary suggested, the turnover won't have the repercussions I had hoped. Unfortunately many of the stars decided to return to school, including most of the Ohio State defense and offensive stars like John Clay from Wisconsin and Evan Royster from Penn State.
On the plus side the Big Ten should once again be strong out of conference, but it will make for a challenging season for our Wolverines.
Go Blue!!
Many prognosticators suggested that this year's draft would set a record for the most juniors to leave early. Some said that as many as 75 underclassmen would put their names in for draft consideration. It was a record-tying year for early entrants, but not the mass exodus that many predicted. 53 underclassmen declared that they would be available for draft consideration by NFL teams; tying the previous high set in 2008 and exceeding the 46 that declared last year.
As I discussed in my earlier diary, the reasons this draft inspired so many players to consider early entry were all related to the expiring labor agreement between NFL players and owners, and the chances of a lockout in 2011. Changes in the new contract might limit both player rookie earnings and prospects for free agency, so many agents were encouraging players to take a shot now.
It sounds like the NFL went out of their way to discourage underclassmen from leaving early.
"There will be no change in our current [rookie pool] system, at least until 2011," Goodell told ESPN on Saturday. "I've explained that to some college head coaches, athletic directors and league commissioners. Any underclassman who is hearing differently is probably hearing it from an agent or from another source who is misinformed." Source - ESPN
Players who submitted their paperwork and did not receive a grade within the first three rounds, were not informed of an official grade. Instead, they were told that they did not receive a grade within the first three rounds. As far as we know, in past years, players were told what round they were projected to get drafted in by the NFL Advisory Committee, even if it was a grade later than round three. Source - NFL Draft Bible
Roger Goodell's assertion that there won't be any changes to the rookie system until at after 2011 is probably true according to the Players Association. . . since they think that season will be locked out.
Union sources believe the likelihood of a rookie hard cap being in place by 2011 is remote because, as Smith inferred again, management is preparing for a lockout that season. Source - ESPN
So what effect will early entry have on college football? Here's a list of players that have declared (I included the Scout star ranking when they left high school or junior college):
POS | Player | Team | Status | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
QB | Jimmy Clausen | Notre Dame | Declared | 5 star |
QB | Jevan Snead | Mississippi | Declared | 4 star |
QB | Sam Bradford | Oklahoma | Declared | 4 star |
RB | Joe McKnight | Southern California | Declared | 5 star |
RB | Jonathan Dwyer | Georgia Tech | Declared | 4 star |
RB | Jahvid Best | California | Declared | 4 star |
RB | Toby Gerhart | Stanford | Declared | 3 star |
RB | Shawnbrey McNeil | SMU | Declared | 3 star |
RB | Darius Marshall | Marshall | Declared | 2 star |
WR | Arrelious Benn | Illinois | Declared | 5 star |
WR | Chris Bell | Norfolk State | Declared | 5 star |
WR | Dez Bryant | Oklahoma State | Declared | 4 star |
WR | Damian Williams | Southern California | Declared | 4 star |
WR | Golden Tate | Notre Dame | Declared | 4 star |
WR | Demaryius Thomas | Georgia Tech | Declared | 3 star |
WR | Dezmon Briscoe | Kansas | Declared | 2 star |
WR | Mico McSwain | North Alabama | Declared | 2 star |
WR | Mike Williams | Syracuse | Declared | 2 star |
WR | Carlton Mitchell | USF | Declared | 2 star |
WR | Antonio Brown | Central Michigan | Declared | 1 star |
TE | Aaron Hernandez | Florida | Declared | 5 star |
TE | Jermaine Gresham | Oklahoma | Declared | 4 star |
TE | Rob Gronkowski | Arizona | Declared | 4 star |
OT | Anthony Davis | Rutgers | Declared | 5 star |
OT | Brian Bulaga | Iowa | Declared | 4 star |
OT | Bruce Campbell | Maryland | Declared | 4 star |
OL | Maurkice Pouncey | Florida | Declared | 4 star |
DE | Jason Pierre-Paul | South Florida | Declared | 5 star JC |
DE | Carlos Dunlap | Florida | Declared | 5 star |
DE | Everson Griffen | Southern California | Declared | 5 star |
DE | Clifton Geathers | South Carolina | Declared | 4 star |
DE | Thaddeus Gibson | Ohio State | Declared | 4 star |
DE | Derrick Morgan | Georgia Tech | Declared | 4 star |
DE | Kevin Basped | Nevada | Declared | 2 star |
DT | Gerald McCoy | Oklahoma | Declared | 5 star |
DT | Brian Price | UCLA | Declared | 5 star |
DT | Abe Koroma | Western Illinois | Declared | 3 star |
ILB | Rolando McClain | Alabama | Declared | 4 star |
OLB | Jason Worilds | Virginia Tech | Declared | 4 star |
OLB | Rennie Curran | Georgia | Declared | 4 star |
OLB | Navorro Bowman | Penn State | Declared | 4 star |
S | Chad Jones | LSU | Declared | 5 star |
S | Eric Berry | Tennessee | Declared | 5 star |
S | Major Wright | Florida | Declared | 5 star |
S | Earl Thomas | Texas | Declared | 4 star |
S | Reshad Jones | Georgia | Declared | 4 star |
S | Morgan Burnett | Georgia Tech | Declared | 4 star |
CB | Donovan Warren | Michigan | Declared | 5 star |
CB | Joe Haden | Florida | Declared | 4 star |
CB | Dominique Franks | Oklahoma | Declared | 4 star |
CB | Kareem Jackson | Alabama | Declared | 3 star |
CB | Amari Spievey | Iowa | Declared | 2 star |
You'll notice that the list is made up of mostly 4 and 5 star players with an abundance of WRs and DEs. Overall it's hard to say that the departures of these players will have a major impact on next season in college football.
The Big Ten only ended up losing six players. So what kind of impact will departing players (including seniors) have on the Big Ten?
Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Michigan | |
---|---|---|---|---|
QB | Juice Williams | |||
RB | Daniel Dufrene* | Demetrius McCray* | Brandon Minor | |
RB | Bryan Payton* | Carlos Brown* | ||
WR | Arrelious Benn** | Trey Stross | Greg Matthews | |
WR | Chris Duvalt | LaTerryal Savoy* | ||
WR | Jarred Fayson | |||
TE | Michael Hoomanawanui | Troy Wagner | Tony Moeaki | |
TE | Brian Zematis | |||
OT | Rodger Saffold | Kyle Calloway | Mark Ortmann | |
OT | Bryan Bulaga** | |||
OT | ||||
OT | ||||
OG | Jon Asamoah | Pete Saxon | Andy Kuempel* | David Moosman |
OG | Mike Reiter* | Dace Richardson | ||
OG | Dan Doering* | |||
C | Eric Block | Rafael Eubanks | ||
C | ||||
DE | Antonio James | Greg Middleton | Chad Geary* | Brandon Graham |
DE | Doug Pilcher | Jammie Kirlew | Adam Patterson* | |
DE | ||||
DT | Rahkeem Smith* | Travis Meade* | ||
DT | Sirod Williams | |||
DT | ||||
LB | Will Patterson | A.J. Edds | ||
LB | Justin Carrington* | Pat Angerer | ||
LB | Matt Mayberry | |||
LB | ||||
CB | Dere Hicks | Amari Spievey** | Donovan Warren** | |
CB | ||||
CB | ||||
S | Donsay Hardeman | Austin Thomas | Steve Brown | |
S | Collin Taylor* | |||
S | Nick Polk | |||
S | Matt Kurz* | |||
K | Jason Olesnavage | |||
P | Anthony Santella | Zolton Mesko | ||
Total | 15 | 16 | 13 | 12 |
Michigan State | Minnesota | Northwestern | Ohio State | |
QB | Mike Kafka | |||
RB | ||||
RB | ||||
WR | Blair White | Ben Kuznia* | Andrew Brewer | Ray Small* |
WR | Kevin Frymire | |||
WR | ||||
TE | Nick Tow-Arnett | Jake Ballard | ||
TE | ||||
OT | Rocco Cironi | Matt Stommes* | Kurt Mattes* | Jim Cordle |
OT | Mike Schmeding* | |||
OT | ||||
OT | ||||
OG | Brendon Moss | Desmond Taylor* | ||
OG | ||||
OG | ||||
C | Joel Nitchman | Andrew Moses* | ||
C | John Stipek* | |||
DE | Trevor Anderson | Cedric McKinley | Corey Wootton | Thaddeus Gibson** |
DE | Colin Neely | Barrett Moen | Lawrence Wilson* | |
DE | Derrick Onwuachi* | |||
DT | Michael Jordan* | Eric Small | Adam Hahn | Todd Denlinger |
DT | Garrett Brown | Marshall Thomas* | Doug Worthington | |
DT | Rob Rose | |||
LB | Brandon Denson | Simoni Lawrence | Austin Spitler | |
LB | | Rex Sharpe* | ||
LB | Adam Decker* | Nate Triplett | ||
LB | Lee Campbell | |||
CB | Jeremy Ware | Traye Simmons | Sherrick McManis | Andre Amos* |
CB | Ross Weaver* | Marcus Sherels | ||
CB | ||||
S | K. Davis-Clark* | Brad Phillips | Kurt Coleman | |
S | Ashton Henderson* | Brendan Smith | Anderson Russell | |
S | Dan Fortener | |||
S | ||||
K | Brett Swenson | |||
P | Blake Haudan | Jon Thoma | ||
Total | 17 | 15 | 11 | 14 |
Penn State | Purdue | Wisconsin | ||
QB | Daryll Clark | Joey Elliott | ||
RB | Jaycen Taylor* | |||
RB | Garrett Graham | |||
WR | Patrick Mauti* | Royce Adams* | ||
WR | Aaron Valentin | |||
WR | ||||
TE | Mickey Shuler | Mickey Turner | ||
TE | Andrew Quarless* | |||
OT | Dennis Landolt | Zach Jones | ||
OT | Ako Poti* | |||
OT | Nerraw McCormack* | |||
OT | ||||
OG | Zach Reckman | |||
OG | ||||
OG | ||||
C | Doug Klopacz* | Jared Zwilling | ||
C | ||||
DE | Jerome Hayes | Keyon Brown* | O'Brien Schofield | |
DE | Tom Golarz* | |||
DE | ||||
DT | Jared Odrick | Mike Neal | Daniel Moore | |
DT | Dan Cascone* | |||
DT | Jeff Stehle | |||
LB | Sean Lee | Jason Werner | Jaevery McFadden | |
LB | Navorro Bowman** | |||
LB | Josh Hull | |||
LB | ||||
CB | Knowledge Timmons | Brandon King | ||
CB | A.J. Wallace* | David Pender | ||
CB | S. McCullough* | |||
S | Torri Williams | Chris Maragos | ||
S | Dwight Mclean | |||
S | ||||
S | ||||
K | ||||
P | Jeremy Boone | Chris Summers | ||
Total | 17 | 15 | 8 |
* indicates non-starting contributor
** indicates early entrant
Source: www.rivals.com, www.foxsports.com, www.scout.com
Since the conference didn't lose as many players as my original diary suggested, the turnover won't have the repercussions I had hoped. Unfortunately many of the stars decided to return to school, including most of the Ohio State defense and offensive stars like John Clay from Wisconsin and Evan Royster from Penn State.
On the plus side the Big Ten should once again be strong out of conference, but it will make for a challenging season for our Wolverines.
Go Blue!!
January 20th, 2010 at 3:23 PM ^
[sarcasm] Well, crap. I was looking forward to an undefeated season thanks to all of the early departures. I guess I will have to 'curb my enthusiasm' for the '10 football season..... [/sarcasm]
Thanks for the update umhero. Nice work.
January 20th, 2010 at 3:41 PM ^
It would have been really nice if Evan Royster decided to declare. Judging by this information though, Wisconsin and OSU are the only B10 teams we should have a really tough time with in 2010. The top of the conference should be better next year, but beneath OSU and Wiscy and possibly Iowa, there is a serious drop in talent. Hopefully this bodes well for a Michigan team that could really use 5-6 "gimme" games on the schedule.
January 20th, 2010 at 6:25 PM ^
Until we see long-term real improvement, it's unfair to say the only teams we should have a tough time with next year. Remember the visions everyone (including me) had of 9-3/10-2 last year after the first four games? There's no doubt we'll be better, but our defensive problems last year were so vast it's hard to believe there's only two teams to worry about. Let's not forget we won one Big 10 game last yr. ONE. I believe the conference should be fairly wide open aside from OSU and Wiscy, but there are no gimmes for us in the Big 10 next year, especially after losing the 3 most consistent players on D and the top two running backs in an offense predicated on running the ball.
January 20th, 2010 at 5:19 PM ^
Does the NFL have different rules than the NBA regarding underclassmen declaring for the draft? If a player declares but doesn't sign with an agent, can he remove his name? Or if he declares, does that effectively end his eligibility?
January 20th, 2010 at 5:58 PM ^
I'm pretty sure that once the deadline passes they can't go back. I looked all over the web and I can't find anything that says they can.
January 20th, 2010 at 7:50 PM ^
Nice work.
OSU is at that stage where they just reload talent, so guys coming back just means the 4 and 5* kids behind them have another year to grow. Similarly, PSU still has quite a bit of talent on defense, though I think the loss of Clark will affect them more than the return of Royster. Clay coming back is a bit surprising, but maybe the scouts didn't like his speed or he didn't like the teams that might by vying for a RB.
Irrespective of these departures, though, I think UM will have an easier time against some of the "middling" programs than the past two years. MSU might well lose 8+ players due to suspensions and/or legal matters, plus Illinois is going to be a shell of the team that ran roughshod over UM without Juice and Co. Purdue will be breaking in another QB, and I'm not sure the backup is anywhere close to Elliott in terms of experience in the system (I don't know their depth chart, but I thought I read somewhere that the depth was pretty lean).
Now, if the season plays out next year similarly to this year - wins against the bad teams, losses to the PSU/OSU/Wiscy/Iowa set, but victories over the three other middling teams instead of losses, and suddenly you have 8 wins and a bowl game. And if you get a bit greedy and figure Iowa will swing back a bit from the great season they had this year, you could potentially see a 4 game swing in the record, which puts this team right on track.
Sure, losing Graham and Warren will hurt, but even with them the defense was comically bad at times. Figuring some improvement by players under the same defensive system for 2 consecutive years in what feels like forever, the overall defensive play should offset somewhat the loss of these stars, at least to the extent that the defense shouldn't get any worse. Combined with a better offense (as Tate & co. continue to mature), and I am willing to say 8-5, 9-4, even 10-3 are not out of the discussion.
January 20th, 2010 at 8:25 PM ^
I'm going to agree with you. I think we will end up better on both sides of the ball even though we lose stars on both. I think Brian's post sums it up best when he points out how much our weaknesses in the defensive backfield made our defense porous.
Regarding Clay coming back, everything I saw suggested he was a late first/early second round prospect; maybe he believes he can move up with a good senior season. Their team will be mature.
January 23rd, 2010 at 6:28 PM ^
Robert Marve will be Purdue's starting QB next year. He is a Miami transfer, so he had to sit out this year. The little bit I saw if him playing for the U he looked pretty talented. He tore his ACL during practice at Purdue though,but he should still be a big upgrade over Elliot.
January 21st, 2010 at 7:09 PM ^
Great work. Clay and Royster are head scatchers, RB shelf life/tire tread is well documented, as a top 3rnd RB I say you need to go to the NFL.
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