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How the 2010 NFL Draft will transform the Big Ten - Part II

By umhero — January 20th, 2010 at 3:39 PM — 9 comments
Filed under:
  • big 10
  • NFL draft
The deadline for declaring for the 2010 NFL Draft was Friday, January 15. As a follow up to an earlier diary, "How the 2010 NFL Draft will transform the Big Ten", I wanted to review the players who actually left college and how the Big Ten will change as a result.

Many prognosticators suggested that this year's draft would set a record for the most juniors to leave early. Some said that as many as 75 underclassmen would put their names in for draft consideration. It was a record-tying year for early entrants, but not the mass exodus that many predicted. 53 underclassmen declared that they would be available for draft consideration by NFL teams; tying the previous high set in 2008 and exceeding the 46 that declared last year.

As I discussed in my earlier diary, the reasons this draft inspired so many players to consider early entry were all related to the expiring labor agreement between NFL players and owners, and the chances of a lockout in 2011. Changes in the new contract might limit both player rookie earnings and prospects for free agency, so many agents were encouraging players to take a shot now.

It sounds like the NFL went out of their way to discourage underclassmen from leaving early.

"There will be no change in our current [rookie pool] system, at least until 2011," Goodell told ESPN on Saturday. "I've explained that to some college head coaches, athletic directors and league commissioners. Any underclassman who is hearing differently is probably hearing it from an agent or from another source who is misinformed." Source - ESPN

Players who submitted their paperwork and did not receive a grade within the first three rounds, were not informed of an official grade. Instead, they were told that they did not receive a grade within the first three rounds. As far as we know, in past years, players were told what round they were projected to get drafted in by the NFL Advisory Committee, even if it was a grade later than round three. Source - NFL Draft Bible

Roger Goodell's assertion that there won't be any changes to the rookie system until at after 2011 is probably true according to the Players Association. . . since they think that season will be locked out.

Union sources believe the likelihood of a rookie hard cap being in place by 2011 is remote because, as Smith inferred again, management is preparing for a lockout that season. Source - ESPN

So what effect will early entry have on college football? Here's a list of players that have declared (I included the Scout star ranking when they left high school or junior college):

POSPlayerTeamStatusRank
QBJimmy ClausenNotre DameDeclared5 star
QBJevan SneadMississippiDeclared4 star
QBSam BradfordOklahomaDeclared4 star
RBJoe McKnightSouthern CaliforniaDeclared5 star
RBJonathan DwyerGeorgia TechDeclared4 star
RBJahvid BestCaliforniaDeclared4 star
RBToby GerhartStanfordDeclared3 star
RBShawnbrey McNeilSMUDeclared3 star
RBDarius MarshallMarshallDeclared2 star
WRArrelious BennIllinoisDeclared5 star
WRChris BellNorfolk StateDeclared5 star
WRDez BryantOklahoma StateDeclared4 star
WRDamian WilliamsSouthern CaliforniaDeclared4 star
WRGolden TateNotre DameDeclared4 star
WRDemaryius ThomasGeorgia TechDeclared3 star
WRDezmon BriscoeKansasDeclared2 star
WRMico McSwainNorth AlabamaDeclared2 star
WRMike WilliamsSyracuseDeclared2 star
WRCarlton MitchellUSFDeclared2 star
WRAntonio BrownCentral MichiganDeclared1 star
TEAaron HernandezFloridaDeclared5 star
TEJermaine GreshamOklahomaDeclared4 star
TERob GronkowskiArizonaDeclared4 star
OTAnthony DavisRutgersDeclared5 star
OTBrian BulagaIowaDeclared4 star
OTBruce CampbellMarylandDeclared4 star
OLMaurkice PounceyFloridaDeclared4 star
DEJason Pierre-PaulSouth FloridaDeclared5 star JC
DECarlos DunlapFloridaDeclared5 star
DEEverson GriffenSouthern CaliforniaDeclared5 star
DEClifton GeathersSouth CarolinaDeclared4 star
DEThaddeus GibsonOhio StateDeclared4 star
DEDerrick MorganGeorgia TechDeclared4 star
DEKevin BaspedNevadaDeclared2 star
DTGerald McCoyOklahomaDeclared5 star
DTBrian PriceUCLADeclared5 star
DTAbe KoromaWestern IllinoisDeclared3 star
ILBRolando McClainAlabamaDeclared4 star
OLBJason WorildsVirginia TechDeclared4 star
OLBRennie CurranGeorgiaDeclared4 star
OLBNavorro BowmanPenn StateDeclared4 star
SChad JonesLSUDeclared5 star
SEric BerryTennesseeDeclared5 star
SMajor WrightFloridaDeclared5 star
SEarl ThomasTexas Declared4 star
SReshad JonesGeorgiaDeclared4 star
SMorgan BurnettGeorgia TechDeclared4 star
CBDonovan WarrenMichiganDeclared5 star
CBJoe HadenFloridaDeclared4 star
CBDominique FranksOklahomaDeclared4 star
CBKareem JacksonAlabamaDeclared3 star
CBAmari SpieveyIowaDeclared2 star

You'll notice that the list is made up of mostly 4 and 5 star players with an abundance of WRs and DEs.  Overall it's hard to say that the departures of these players will have a major impact on next season in college football.

The Big Ten only ended up losing six players.  So what kind of impact will departing players (including seniors) have on the Big Ten?


IllinoisIndianaIowaMichigan
QBJuice Williams    
RBDaniel Dufrene* Demetrius McCray*  Brandon Minor
RB Bryan Payton*  Carlos Brown*
WRArrelious Benn** Trey Stross Greg Matthews
WRChris Duvalt  LaTerryal Savoy*
WRJarred Fayson   
TEMichael Hoomanawanui Troy WagnerTony Moeaki  
TE Brian Zematis  
OT Rodger SaffoldKyle CallowayMark Ortmann
OT  Bryan Bulaga** 
OT    
OT    
OGJon AsamoahPete SaxonAndy Kuempel*David Moosman
OG Mike Reiter*Dace Richardson 
OG  Dan Doering* 
CEric Block  Rafael Eubanks 
C    
     
DEAntonio JamesGreg MiddletonChad Geary*Brandon Graham
DEDoug PilcherJammie Kirlew
Adam Patterson*
DE    
DTRahkeem Smith* Travis Meade* 
DTSirod Williams   
DT    
LB Will PattersonA.J. Edds  
LB Justin Carrington*Pat Angerer  
LB Matt Mayberry  
LB    
CBDere Hicks Amari Spievey**Donovan Warren**
CB    
CB    
SDonsay HardemanAustin Thomas Steve Brown
S Collin Taylor*  
S Nick Polk  
S Matt Kurz*  
     
K   Jason Olesnavage
PAnthony Santella   Zolton Mesko
Total15161312
     
 Michigan StateMinnesotaNorthwesternOhio State
QB  Mike Kafka 
RB   
RB    
WRBlair WhiteBen Kuznia*Andrew BrewerRay Small*
WR  Kevin Frymire
WR    
TE Nick Tow-Arnett Jake Ballard
TE    
OTRocco CironiMatt Stommes*Kurt Mattes*Jim Cordle
OTMike Schmeding*   
OT    
OT    
OGBrendon Moss Desmond Taylor*
OG   
OG    
CJoel Nitchman  Andrew Moses*
CJohn Stipek*   
     
DETrevor AndersonCedric McKinleyCorey Wootton Thaddeus Gibson**
DEColin NeelyBarrett Moen Lawrence Wilson*
DE Derrick Onwuachi* 
DTMichael Jordan*Eric SmallAdam HahnTodd Denlinger
DT Garrett BrownMarshall Thomas* Doug Worthington
DT   Rob Rose
LBBrandon DensonSimoni Lawrence Austin Spitler
LB
Rex Sharpe*  
LBAdam Decker*Nate Triplett  
LB Lee Campbell   
CBJeremy WareTraye SimmonsSherrick McManis Andre Amos*
CBRoss Weaver* Marcus Sherels 
CB   
SK. Davis-Clark* Brad Phillips Kurt Coleman
SAshton Henderson*  Brendan SmithAnderson Russell
SDan Fortener   
S    
     
KBrett Swenson   
P Blake Haudan Jon Thoma
Total17151114
     
 Penn StatePurdueWisconsin 
QBDaryll ClarkJoey Elliott  
RB
Jaycen Taylor*
 
RB  Garrett Graham 
WRPatrick Mauti*Royce Adams*  
WR
Aaron Valentin   
WR
   
TEMickey Shuler Mickey Turner  
TEAndrew Quarless*   
OTDennis LandoltZach Jones   
OTAko Poti*   
OTNerraw McCormack*   
OT
   
OG
Zach Reckman  
OG    
OG    
CDoug Klopacz*Jared Zwilling  
C    
     
DEJerome HayesKeyon Brown* O'Brien Schofield  
DETom Golarz*    
DE    
DTJared OdrickMike Neal Daniel Moore 
DT
 Dan Cascone*  
DT  Jeff Stehle  
LBSean LeeJason Werner Jaevery McFadden  
LBNavorro Bowman**   
LBJosh Hull   
LB
   
CBKnowledge TimmonsBrandon King   
CBA.J. Wallace*David Pender   
CBS. McCullough*   
S
Torri WilliamsChris Maragos  
S Dwight Mclean  
S    
S    
     
K
   
PJeremy BooneChris Summers   
Total17158

* indicates non-starting contributor
** indicates early entrant
Source: www.rivals.com, www.foxsports.com, www.scout.com

Since the conference didn't lose as many players as my original diary suggested, the turnover won't have the repercussions I had hoped.  Unfortunately many of the stars decided to return to school, including most of the Ohio State defense and offensive stars like John Clay from Wisconsin and Evan Royster from Penn State. 

On the plus side the Big Ten should once again be strong out of conference, but it will make for a challenging season for our Wolverines. 

Go Blue!!
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January 20th, 2010 at 4:23 PM | [sarcasm] Well, crap. I was (Score:1)
Bronco648
Bronco648's picture
Joined: 08/20/2008
MGoPoints: 998

[sarcasm] Well, crap. I was looking forward to an undefeated season thanks to all of the early departures. I guess I will have to 'curb my enthusiasm' for the '10 football season..... [/sarcasm]

Thanks for the update umhero. Nice work.

Nobody home...

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January 20th, 2010 at 4:41 PM | It would have been really (Score:1)
aaamichfan
aaamichfan's picture
Joined: 10/23/2009
MGoPoints: 14217

It would have been really nice if Evan Royster decided to declare. Judging by this information though, Wisconsin and OSU are the only B10 teams we should have a really tough time with in 2010. The top of the conference should be better next year, but beneath OSU and Wiscy and possibly Iowa, there is a serious drop in talent. Hopefully this bodes well for a Michigan team that could really use 5-6 "gimme" games on the schedule.

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January 20th, 2010 at 7:25 PM | Projections (Score:1)
BoiseBlue
BoiseBlue's picture
Joined: 10/22/2009
MGoPoints: 315

Until we see long-term real improvement, it's unfair to say the only teams we should have a tough time with next year. Remember the visions everyone (including me) had of 9-3/10-2 last year after the first four games? There's no doubt we'll be better, but our defensive problems last year were so vast it's hard to believe there's only two teams to worry about. Let's not forget we won one Big 10 game last yr. ONE. I believe the conference should be fairly wide open aside from OSU and Wiscy, but there are no gimmes for us in the Big 10 next year, especially after losing the 3 most consistent players on D and the top two running backs in an offense predicated on running the ball.

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January 20th, 2010 at 6:19 PM | Does the NFL have different (Score:1)
WanderingWolve
Joined: 01/03/2009
MGoPoints: 92

Does the NFL have different rules than the NBA regarding underclassmen declaring for the draft? If a player declares but doesn't sign with an agent, can he remove his name? Or if he declares, does that effectively end his eligibility?

2010 = Year of Justification and Redemption!

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January 20th, 2010 at 6:58 PM | I'm pretty sure that once the (Score:1)
umhero
umhero's picture
Joined: 07/26/2009
MGoPoints: 2221

I'm pretty sure that once the deadline passes they can't go back. I looked all over the web and I can't find anything that says they can.

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January 20th, 2010 at 8:50 PM | Nice work. OSU is at that (Score:1)
bronxblue
Joined: 11/22/2008
MGoPoints: 12591

Nice work.

OSU is at that stage where they just reload talent, so guys coming back just means the 4 and 5* kids behind them have another year to grow. Similarly, PSU still has quite a bit of talent on defense, though I think the loss of Clark will affect them more than the return of Royster. Clay coming back is a bit surprising, but maybe the scouts didn't like his speed or he didn't like the teams that might by vying for a RB.

Irrespective of these departures, though, I think UM will have an easier time against some of the "middling" programs than the past two years. MSU might well lose 8+ players due to suspensions and/or legal matters, plus Illinois is going to be a shell of the team that ran roughshod over UM without Juice and Co. Purdue will be breaking in another QB, and I'm not sure the backup is anywhere close to Elliott in terms of experience in the system (I don't know their depth chart, but I thought I read somewhere that the depth was pretty lean).

Now, if the season plays out next year similarly to this year - wins against the bad teams, losses to the PSU/OSU/Wiscy/Iowa set, but victories over the three other middling teams instead of losses, and suddenly you have 8 wins and a bowl game. And if you get a bit greedy and figure Iowa will swing back a bit from the great season they had this year, you could potentially see a 4 game swing in the record, which puts this team right on track.

Sure, losing Graham and Warren will hurt, but even with them the defense was comically bad at times. Figuring some improvement by players under the same defensive system for 2 consecutive years in what feels like forever, the overall defensive play should offset somewhat the loss of these stars, at least to the extent that the defense shouldn't get any worse. Combined with a better offense (as Tate & co. continue to mature), and I am willing to say 8-5, 9-4, even 10-3 are not out of the discussion.

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January 20th, 2010 at 9:25 PM | I'm going to agree with you. (Score:1)
umhero
umhero's picture
Joined: 07/26/2009
MGoPoints: 2221

I'm going to agree with you. I think we will end up better on both sides of the ball even though we lose stars on both. I think Brian's post sums it up best when he points out how much our weaknesses in the defensive backfield made our defense porous.

Regarding Clay coming back, everything I saw suggested he was a late first/early second round prospect; maybe he believes he can move up with a good senior season. Their team will be mature.

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January 23rd, 2010 at 7:28 PM | FWIW (Score:1)
MGOARMY
MGOARMY's picture
Joined: 06/22/2009
MGoPoints: 676

Robert Marve will be Purdue's starting QB next year. He is a Miami transfer, so he had to sit out this year. The little bit I saw if him playing for the U he looked pretty talented. He tore his ACL during practice at Purdue though,but he should still be a big upgrade over Elliot.

"what the hell is wrong with u?" "me? Nothing! you on the other hand, have a bullet inside of you!"

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January 21st, 2010 at 8:09 PM | umhero (Score:1)
GunnersApe
GunnersApe's picture
Joined: 11/19/2009
MGoPoints: 4101

Great work. Clay and Royster are head scatchers, RB shelf life/tire tread is well documented, as a top 3rnd RB I say you need to go to the NFL.

Fuck it, Dude, let's go bowling.

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