Does that mean Bo Pelini is Michigan's next head coach? I'm okay with that part.
I thought that myself when I read that article that talked about a Data Scientist(tm)
Omaha is my hometown, Michigan my school. Living in the heart of Big Red Country, if you want to be included in sports conversations you better be ready to talk about the Huskers. The ultimate villains in Nebraska are not Barry Switzer or Mack Brown, but Steve Peterson and Bill Callahan. Peterson fired Frank Solich and hired Callahan. Callahan was the first head coach that had no direct ties to the University either as a player or assistant coach since Bob Devaney. He was brought in to bring an offensive spark to an “outdated” system. In his first season, Nebraska had their first losing season since 1961 and ended their 35-year bowl streak.
When they were both fired following the 2007 season, people put mock gravestones in the backyards reading "RIP Bill Callahan and Steve Peterson".
Sound eerily familiar? So does the 30-35 years prior to the outside hires.
The coaching legends: Tom Osborne (25 years): 255-49-3 (.835) Bo Schembechler (21 seasons): 194-48-5 (.802)
The understudies (not including Gary Moeller): Frank Solich (6 seasons): 58-19 (.753) Lloyd Carr (13 seasons): 122-40 (.753)
Callahan and Rodriguez were both hired because of their offensive expertise. Both came in after the successful understudies of legends were fired or “retired”. Other than record, they would be judged by their teams’ offensive outputs. Here is a simplified analysis of their results by points per game (excluding 1-AA opponents):
Bill Callahan Rich Rodriguez
2004: 21.9 ppg 2008: 20.25 ppg
2005: 24.6 ppg 2009: 24.25 ppg
2006: 28.6 ppg 2010 (through PSU): 34.4 ppg
2007: 33.4 ppg 2011: ?
Both programs clearly improved offensively from year to year, delivering on their promise to improve offensively. However, for both the other side of the ball was a different story. Here are the points allowed per game (excluding 1AA opponents) for both programs:
Bill Callahan Rich Rodriguez
2004: 28.1 ppg 2008: 28.9 ppg
2005: 22.3 ppg 2009: 29.45 ppg
2006: 19.2 ppg 2010 (through PSU): 29 ppg
2007: 37.9 ppg 2011: ?
The interesting divergence is that through the first three years of Callahan’s regime the defense improved from year to year. Then in 2007, the wheels came off when in a crazy Big 12 North loaded with teams who had similar team structures to the 2010 version of Michigan, they lost to Missouri 41-6, Kansas 76(!)-39, and Colorado 65-51.
Thus far in Rich Rodriguez’s tenure, the most points allowed in a game has been 46 to Penn State in 2008. Instead, his defenses have been more consistently pathetic by giving up at least 30 points in 16 of 20 Big 10 games.
One note of optimism is that it seems once the Nebraska defense was entirely rid of Solich’s players, the defense took a complete nosedive. While in Ann Arbor, the defense has been on a steady decline since the great 2006 defense. Perhaps Michigan’s defense could turn around as Rodriguez’s defensive talent from the 2009 and 2010 classes mature and take greater control of the defense…or perhaps not.
Finally, a look at their records:
Bill Callahan Rich Rodriguez
2004: 5-6 (3-5 Big 12) 2008: 3-9 (2-6 Big 10)
2005: 8-4 (4-4 Big 12) 2009: 5-7 (1-7 Big 10)
2006: 9-5 (6-3 Big 12) 2010 (through PSU): 5-3 (1-3 Big 10)
2007: 5-7 (2-6 Big 12) 2011: ?
(2007 record worst in Nebraska history)
After four years of underachievement, frustration, and an entire state deep in depression, new AD Tom Osborne (people claim Nebraskans didn’t vote him in as governor because the AD job was more important) fired Bill Callahan and his defensive staff led by Kevin Cosgrove.
Instead of starting from scratch, Osborne kept OC Shawn Watson and hired defensive guru Bo Pelini as head coach. In year one, the Huskers went 9-4 while still giving up 30.33 ppg. In year two, they went 10-4 and had a Rodriguez-like leap on defense giving up only 10.5 ppg, all with Callahan’s recruits (Larry Asante, Prince Amukamara, Jared Crick, Phillip Dillard, Zach Potter, and of course, Ndominatin Suh). Interestingly enough, Pelini was Solich’s DC during his last year at Nebraska and took over as interim head coach for the bowl game (they beat Michigan State in the Alamo Bowl 17-3). It would be pretty weird if Michigan managed to keep the offensive staff and hire Ron English as head coach. Of course, that is probably about as stupid as it is unlikely.
Now, if I’m going to point out their similarities, I should also go into their differences. This begins with their coaching resumes prior to their respective jobs. Bill Callahan spent 15 years as an offensive assistant in the college ranks (primarily coaching OL) at most notably Illinois and Wisconsin before moving on to the NFL. He spent a few years as the OL coach for the Eagles until he was hired as Jon Gruden’s OC in Oakland. As many remember, he took over for Gruden when he left for the Bucs and ended up losing to his old boss in the Super Bowl. The following season, the Raiders finished 4-12 and many of the veterans (like say, Tim Brown and Charles Woodson) publically criticized him, some even saying he was purposely sabotaging the team. Those two years in Oakland represent his entire head coaching experience prior to Nebraska. Meanwhile, Rich Rodriguez had 15 years of successful head coaching experience at different levels of college football prior to his arrival in Ann Arbor.
Another difference has been their success in big games against big opponents. Against ranked opponents Callahan had a 4-10 record, never beating a team ranked better than #20. And while Rich Rod’s record against ranked opponents is a paltry 2-8, all but one was ranked higher than #20, and four of those teams were ranked in the top 10. Furthermore, Rich Rod has a victory against a top ten team (#8 Wisconsin in 2008). It may seem like splitting hairs or grasping at straws (probably because it is), but all of Callahan’s top 25 victories came against weak Big 12 North opponents who soon vacated the national rankings.
Perhaps more than the losing, the way in which he ran the program was a key reason Callahan was let go. He understandably wanted to do things his way, but that involved largely ignoring in-state recruits who would give both their legs and a testicle to play for Nebraska. He also killed one of the most successful walk-on programs in the nation, thus leaving the program without the blue-collared identity that it and the state has had from the beginning. Players like Seth Olson (Iowa, 3rd round pick of the Broncos), Adam Shada (Iowa), Jeff Tarpinian (Iowa), and Paul Homer (Washington) left to go elsewhere when all they needed was an offer. He ran a loose ship like he was still coaching in the NFL and it showed; the teams were undisciplined (particularly on defense) and didn’t have much fight to them. Rodriguez, on the other hand, made an effort to learn Michigan’s traditions and incorporate them in with his own. Instead of turning a blind eye to former players like Callahan did at Nebraska, he welcomes them to the facilities.
What does this all mean? Hell if I know. There are some alarming similarities in the way in which the two situations have played out to date, but some important differences. I have been telling myself for the better part of three years that the differences matter more than the similarities and that everything will work out. Let’s just hope that sentiment is right. Go Blue!
Does that mean Bo Pelini is Michigan's next head coach? I'm okay with that part.
Great example of how a previously well accomplished coach can come into a situation and not perform. The best the Nebraska ever did was get rid of Callahan for Pellini. Can you imagine where they would be if they had stuck with him?
Thank you. People seem to think that one's resume is the end-all be-all. Sorry, that's not how the real world works.
Maybe we can work out something regarding Shawn Watson, however...
I'd like to see what Pat Hill could do at a big time university. For being in the "MAC" of Cali, dude can flat out coach. Love watching him tear up the sidelines. Love watching how intense his teams are. Even if his team doesn't have a chance.
I think the proper analogy (which the OP mentioned) is that Ron English would be Michigan's next HC.
Interesting parallel, but I think ultimately the comparison doesn't hold up simply because RR showed he could win as a HC using his own guys while Callahan rode Gruden's coattails to a Super Bowl and then careened off a cliff.
Also, *shudder 2*, Callahan actually posted winning records and made bowl games in Years 2 and 3.
If RR is retained and backslides in year 4, like Callahan did, I don't think there will be any dispute over whether or not to fire him. Like you said, the prior track record of each coach at the college level is not in the stratosphere. Also, not sure what the injury/attrition status was of the Nebraska teams, but I can't imagine it was anything like it has been here. Even if RR is responsible for all of that attrition, it's very unlikely to continue over the next few years as his players become the majority of the team.
Like any program, there were injuries. But no, the injuries/attrition was no where close to what Michigan has experienced.
Interesting analysis of somethng talked about since day 1. The big difference is that Callahan was never a college coach where RR has a proven track record and is a lifetime college coach.
I think the thing I keep pounding is the past is gone. Try to forget about the pain and look what we have to look forward to. We will improve if RR stays next year. I have no doubt. You don't play that many freshmen and not improve. Don'l look at other programs look at our offense. 50pts a game next year...book it.
RR does not have a record of success when he doesn't have Jeff Casteel as his DC. This is the thing that worries me. RR seems determined to turn whomever he hires into a Casteel clone, when they aren't capable of doing so.
Then hopefully RR can hire Casteel.
I'd feel a lot more optimistic about him if he could - but he's tried twice already and Casteel has said no each time.
Judging by how things have gone so far, improvement on offense is pretty certain but so is the continuing mismanagement of the defense. Who is to say that RR won't meddle with next year's DC? Hell, we might have to put up 60.
The story goes that Nehlen told RR was a fool if he didn't accept the Michigan job. WVU Nation is in denial over that. But Nehlen was a Michigan Man even while being the "Bo" of WVU. I would seem to think that Bo would approve of the hire.
Regarding the drama.
Now we know why Carr was such an ass to the press and the facilities were nicknamed Ft. Schembechler.
If RR is guilty of anything is his golly-gee and open demeanor to the sharks in the press. If Bo was around, I'm guessing Sharp and Rosenberg wouldn't get away with being punks at press conferences (pouting in the corners/drawing attention to themselves, muckraking about race and background of recruits, etc), manipulating interviews with student-athletes, and printing a bunch of shit, based upon stretches of deductive reasoning, about the University. Seems to me there'd be a lot less drama if Bo was still around.
Thanks for all the info, OP. interesting.
If we win more than 5 games this year and play in a bowl, it's progress. I'm okay with that. Then, next year will have to show more progress...
Good research, well done.
Thank you for researching this and putting it in such a detailed form. I have been comparing the two stories since Rich Rod was hired, and you are right, it is eerily similar.
There just aren't enough baritone male vocalists these days and it'd be nice to have a head coach who could sing the national anthem so well.
That was an awesome read.
I agree, if there is any backsliding in year 4, RR is pretty much done..
But then again if we don't make a bowl this year then he may be out too..
Hopefully we can pop ILL or Purdue, cause Wisc and OSU would take near miracles or complete breakdowns of Wisc and OSU.
Im praying that we go 6-6 and make a bowl and win to finish 7-6, and make a possible nice run like MSU did this year after a 6-7 season
This is key. Rich Rod has...repeat has...to beat either Illinois or Purdue to get a Year 4. Progress, even incremental progress, is still progress until you get to that 10 win plateau. I mean if this is the breakdown...
2008: 3-9 (1-7)
2009: 5-7 (1-7)
2010: 6-6 or 7-5 (2-6 or 3-5)
2011: 8-4 (4-4)
Then Rich gets the chance to finish the 6 years. If 2012 and 2013 are in the 9-12 win range then he gets an extension. If we go 5-7 this year, he's gone. If we win less than 8 next year, he's gone. If we win 8 or more next year and then backslide back towards .500 again in 2013, he's gone.
Again, progress without a backslide is the key to Rich Rod being the coach at Michigan for a long time.
So what you're saying is that 4-5 years of mediocrity is worth it to POSSIBLY be a good team.
Are we Michigan or MSU?
If we're 6-6, with the two Big Ten wins coming against IU and a badly shorthanded PU, does that really constitute progress?
A win this week might be progress. Purdue alone? No.
RR gets 4 regardless.
MooU.'s schedule is an abomination -- their AD must be channeling his inner Bill Martin. Plus, they don't play tUoOS this year. I'm not buying Sparty at all and it wouldn't shock me one bit to see them drop one more game before it's all over. Especially if Dantonio cannot reinstate any felons at the last second again.
It isn't all bad to say if he's Bill Callahan. He put peices in place for Pelini to be able to make an impact right away. Personall,y I feel Rod is a much better coach than Callahan though.
If Rod REALLY wants to try and keep his job after this or next year, he needs to address making changes to the defensive staff, more so than just defensive coordinator. People on here are saying GERG doesn't teach fundamentals, but the assistants do. Well, that means something needs to be done about the assistants (cough Gibson cough) that will help improve teaching fundamentals. I am just sick and tired of seeing a third down and an eternity and the opposing team either juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuust getting enough for a first down, or just saying "fuck you" and getting the TD regardless of how lnog it is.I don't care how young this team is. Missing tackles on a regular basis has absolutely nothing to do with how young a kid is. Its about coaching.
It isn't all bad to say if he's Bill Callahan. He put pieces in place for Pelini to be able to make an impact right away.
The one thing that Callahan did well was recruit. It took Pelini and Co. to figure out what to do with the players, though. That situation is analogous (though by no means equal) to the John Blake - Bob Stoops transformation of Oklahoma. Blake could get the players in, but couldn't coach his way out of a paper bag. Stoops has proven he can do both.
Personally, I feel Rod is a much better coach than Callahan though.
If RR makes changes to the defensive staff. Again. He needs to relinquish some control.
There's just too much scuttlebutt floating around about how RR's boyz from WVU run the show and both Shafer and GERG were/are figure heads. Given the performance/lack of improvement, dysfunctional management is certainly a plausible cause for what we're seeing on Saturdays.
I hope he's Harry Callahan.
Bill Callahan's cornerbacks coach in 2007 was Phil Elmassian (see page 4).
Elmassian was the first DC for Rodriguez during his first year as HC at WVU in 2001 - that year WVU had one of its worst defenses ever in terms of rushing defense (213 YPG rushing, 104th in nation), but did you know that WVU in 2001 had the No. 1 ranked pass defense under Elmassian? It's true - WVU gave up only 137 ypg through the air and was ranked No. 1 passing defense in 2001. Probably due to opponents having so much fun and success running the ball.