Hockey Pairwise update
After tonight’s Senior Night heroics by Carl Hagelin (bork bork bork!), Michigan hockey stands 6th in the Pairwise rankings and 2nd place in the CCHA, one point behind Notre Dame.
Quick Pairwise summary for the uninitiated:
Teams are compared to each other in four categories: RPI ranking, record against Teams Under Consideration (TUC), record against common opponents (COp), and head-to-head record. The TUCs are, this year, the teams with an RPI above 0.5, so the top half of college hockey. For the Pairwise, teams earn one point for each of the first three categories won, and one point for each head-to-head victory, and whichever team has more points in its comparison with another wins the comparison (ties are broken by the higher RPI ranking). The Pairwise rankings total up each team’s number of comparison wins against all of the TUCs and ranks them in order of comparisons won. This system is an approximation of how the NCAA decides on the tournament field and has predicted the teams in the NCAA field perfectly for years.
This weekend's results
Friday night saw Michigan get a lot of help:
- MSU lost to Alaska, making it less likely that they’ll climb over the TUC cliff and hurt Michigan’s comparisons.
- Dartmouth and Rensselaer lost in ECAC play, and Wisconsin lost to Minnesota, lessening the chances that they pull ahead of us.
- Elsewhere in the WCHA, Minn.-Duluth lost to Minnesota State (who should absolutely be called the Screaming Eagles, but aren’t), Neb.-Omaha lost to Alaska-Anchorage, and Denver lost to Michigan Tech. The UNO loss isn’t that big, since the big games to decide the comparison are over the next two weeks. The Denver loss is big enough to pull us within reach of their RPI, giving us a couple ways to pull ahead of them. The biggest of these, however, is UMD’s loss to MSU (NTMSU or the other MSU). It basically means that a sweep over Northern next week puts us ahead of them.
- The Friday win over Western (actually, Notre Dame simply playing Ferris) temporarily pulled us ahead of Notre Dame by virtue of a massively improved record against common opponents. Michigan added a 3-0-1 record against Ferris, while ND added a 1-0-1 record against Western, which makes our record a little bit better than theirs. However, this comparison will still come down to whoever wins more games down the stretch, and is basically a tie right now.
In Saturday’s action:
- OSU beat Lake State, bumping them above the TUC cliff and helping Michigan’s comparisons by adding our 3-1-0 record against them. OSU plays Ferris next week, and ideally OSU picks up a couple points and both OSU and Ferris stay above the TUC cliff.
- In Hockey East, BC lost to Northeastern 2-1 after tying them 7-7 (!!) the previous night. Also, New Hampshire tied a pretty bad Vermont team.
What has changed since last week?
- We have flipped our comparison with UNH, as our RPI moved ahead of theirs. We have also flipped our comparison with BC temporarily, as our record against TUCs is now percentage points better than theirs. However, BC plays UNH in two weeks, so one of those teams will almost certainly move back ahead of us after that weekend. The only way that might not happen is if the two teams split their series and Michigan sweeps Northern, but that might still leave our RPI behind UNH’s. Count on losing one of these comparisons (probably the one with BC).
- We have flipped the comparison with Neb.-Omaha as well, moving ahead in TUC record thanks to OSU’s and Bemidji’s move into the TUC field. This is temporary, since their remaining games are all against TUCs. How they finish will probably determine the status of this comparison. However, we should win either this one or Denver, depending on how they do against each other and (believe it or not) whether Bemidji State can stay in the TUC field. Yes, that matters.
Here are the comparisons that we are currently losing, along with whether those comparisons can be flipped by season’s end.
1. Yale: not flippable.
2. North Dakota: not flippable. Well, if they were to end up with no better than a loss and a tie against Michigan Tech in two weeks, and drop a game to Bemidji State next week, maybe. But that’s not going to happen.
3. Merrimack: only flippable if we pass them in RPI and they meet and lose to UNH in the Hockey East tournament, or they get swept at Maine next weekend. Highly unlikely.
4. Denver/Neb.-Omaha: we will probably win one of these and lose one. At the moment we are beating UNO and losing to Denver; before Bemidji State beat Colorado College it was the other way around. Bemidji is 3-0-1 against UNO, and 0-2 against Denver, so Bemidji’s presence as a TUC dramatically affects both teams. The two teams play each other in Denver next weekend. As Bemidji is likely to fall back down, giving us the win over Denver, I’d root for UNO in those games, but it’s anyone’s guess.
5. Minn.-Duluth: we have closed the gap a bit in RPI, but this comparison will be decided by the next two weeks, as they play two at Colorado College and two at home against UNO, and we have two at Northern. These are all common opponents for both teams, and the comparison is pretty close there. Whoever wins that should win the overall comparison. This is the most flippable of all the pairwise comparisons.
The upshot:
1. We have pretty much locked up a spot in the tournament. Getting swept by Northern would be damaging, but we’d still make it without an implosion in our first series of the CCHA tournament.
2. This is about as high as we can get. It’s almost impossible to flip two of these comparisons. The best we are likely to do, if we win out, is a tie for fourth and winning the RPI tiebreaker to get the top seed in a regional. Of course, none of the regionals are particularly close (the closest are St. Louis and Green Bay), but the top seed means not having get by an east coast team on the east coast to get to the Frozen Four. This, however, is about as likely as the basketball team making the NCAAs. The most likely scenario now is a 2-seed. It is very easy for us to lose the Notre Dame comparison, and we will probably also lose at least one of the BC and UNH comparisons.
3. If things ended today, we’d probably either get sent to Green Bay as the 2-seed with North Dakota the 1-seed, or to Manchester, NH as the 2-seed, with Boston College the 1-seed. A lot will change in the next few weeks, though.
Who/what to root for in the next few weeks:
- Michigan, obv.
- Ohio State to at least split with Ferris and make it to the quarterfinals of the CCHA.
- Ferris to also stay a TUC.
- Colorado College to take points from Minn.-Duluth.
- Lake State to steal one against Miami and get up to the TUC field.
- UNH losing other games but beating BC.
- A split between UNO and Denver is probably the best way to pull ahead of both.
- Bemidji to steal points in North Dakota or against Minnesota.
- Michigan State to stay below the TUC cliff by dropping points to Bowling Green or losing quickly in the CCHA tournament.
- Notre Dame to drop at least a point against Western next week. Besides getting us the regular-season CCHA title, it would be great to go into the CCHA tournament knowing we wouldn't have to face both Miami and Notre Dame.
February 20th, 2011 at 1:40 AM ^
Pairwise Rankings (through tonights games):
1. Yale (EC) - 31
2. North Dakota (WC) - 29
3. Boston Coll (HE) - 28
4. Merrimack (HE) - 27
5. Denver U (WC) - 27
6. Michigan (CC) - 26
7. Minnesota-Duluth (WC) - 25
8. Union (EC) - 23
9. Nebraska-Omaha (WC) - 23
10. Notre Dame (CC) - 22
11. New Hampshire (HE) - 21
12. Miami (CC) - 21
13. RPI (EC) - 21
14. Wisconsin (WC) - 18
15. Western Mich (CC) - 17
16. Atlantic Hockey (AH)
Bridgeport:
1. Yale (EC)
8. Union (EC)
9. Nebraska-Omaha (WC)
16. Atlantic Hockey Champ (AH)
St. Louis:
2. North Dakota (WC)
5. Denver (WC)
12. Miami (CC)
15. Western Michigan (CC)
Manchester:
3. Boston College (HE)
6. Michigan (CC)
11. New Hampshire (HE)
13. RPI (EC)
Green Bay:
4. Merrimack (HE)
7. Minnesota-Duluth (WC)
10. Notre Dame (CC)
14. Wisconsin (WC)
February 20th, 2011 at 4:23 AM ^
Getting semi-away games against UNH and BC to advance would really suck. However, there is a faint chance that the NCAA committee would choose to break the UNH-Miami-RPI tie in the way that would be best for attendance and geographical purposes by making UNH and RPI 3-seeds and Miami a 4-seed.* This would allow the NCAA to send Miami and Nebraska-Omaha to St. Louis, boosting attendance there. Western Michigan and Union would then be sent to Manchester, Denver and RPI would bewould be sent to Bridgeport, and Michigan would replace Denver in St. Louis, resulting in the following bracket:
Bridgeport
1. Yale (ECAC)
16. AH Champ
5. Denver (WCHA)
12. RPI (ECAC)
St. Louis
2. North Dakota (WCHA)
13. Miami (CCHA)
6. Michigan (CCHA)
9. Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)
Manchester
3. Boston College (HE)
15. Western Michigan (CCHA)
8. Union (ECAC)
11. UNH (HE)
Green Bay
4. Merrimack (HE)
14. Wisconsin (WCHA)
7. Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)
10. Notre Dame (CCHA)
This is better for the NCAA because it will significantly boost attendance in St. Louis, as Michigan, UNO, and Miami are all potential draws there. Meanwhile, it doesn't hurt any other regional, as Green Bay is untouched and both Manchester and Bridgeport keep three proximate teams apiece. As for Michigan, this bracket is perhaps slightly easier, as they have to face two slightly tougher opponents, but they'd do it on neutral ice as opposed to a more hostile crowd. Regardless, Michigan's kind of screwed either way. On the bright side, these rankings are still likely to change dramatically before season's end, particularly with the massive parity in college hockey this year.
*I only mention this as a possiblity because the NCAA showed how little they care for bracket integrity last year when they gave Michigan a spot in Fort Wayne against Bemidji State, shredding any sense of bracket integrity for the sake of improving attendance. The chance of this happening should these rankings be identical to the final ones, however, is still rather remote.
February 20th, 2011 at 10:52 AM ^
February 20th, 2011 at 12:55 PM ^
Air Force has to fly wherever they go, so the NCAA is just going to seed them wherever is most convenient. At the moment, the most convenient regional is still Bridgeport. This could, however, change as the rankings change.
February 21st, 2011 at 10:37 AM ^
I was thinking St. Louis might be within busing range, but only on western, life-is-a-highway standards to which the NCAA probably doesn't subscribe.
I did start thinking about what tournament upsets could be envisioned. It strikes me that both the WCHA (5 teams in top 13 or so make for a particular tall order for, say, the Gophers) and the CCHA (already 4 teams listed, and much mediocrity down below Western; Don't see Ferris or Alaska as much of a threat at the Joe) are unlikely sources. (Also, most likely scenario would be for an upstart to supplant Wisconsin or Western, respectively, anyway.)
HE and ECAC, however, could provide a streaky team to ruin some #15-ranked team's day (as Michigan did last year).
In the ECAC, Cornell has been as strong as anyone (save Union) in the past month, and could contune their run. Dartmouth is decent too. There is the prospect of RPI dropping out, but they're actually probably the second most talented team in the conference, so it would be a shock to me (even if it is the current trajectory of things).
In the HE, BU and Maine both have the talent, and Northeastern's 1-1-1 week against BC probably has them thinking big. Either way, it's a lot to look forward to out here (in the east), where I consider college conference hockey tournaments to be the most underrated sporting event of the year.
February 20th, 2011 at 2:04 PM ^
So you're suggesting an all CCHA first round match up for Michigan? I don't think the NCAA would do that.
February 20th, 2011 at 7:43 PM ^
It's a non-issue. But yes, the NCAA cannot place two teams from the same conference in a first-round conference unless it is impossible to avoid based on seeding bands by rule.
February 20th, 2011 at 8:34 PM ^
I misread that sorry. I thought you had them ranked in order of their seed. Miami again in a regional final? I don't know how I feel about that. Being in Fort Wayne last season was heart breaking. As far as UNO, I think one of our games against them got chippy at the end (I remember Brown slamming a guy to the ice). I wouldn't mind if we knocked them out.
Thanks for the knowledge Seth.
February 20th, 2011 at 2:34 PM ^
you're making it sound like the ncaa doesn't care about bracket integrity at all, when they do care some and I would see UM getting swapped with Union in this scenario. You already have UNO, NoDak and Miami for St. Louis attendance so don't know why you would make a 6 seed play a 9 seed instead of an 11 seed for attendance, even if it's a pseudo home game for the 11 seed.
February 20th, 2011 at 8:01 PM ^
Last year, overall 12-seed Michigan was placed in the Fort Wayne regional against overall 8-seed Bemidji State solely to improve attendance. Furthermore, as most hockey programs are not revenue sports, the NCAA will almost always screw around with bracket integrity to help teams out by placing them within legal driving distance. Putting Michigan in St. Louis is not just a move to improve attendance in St. Louis, but a move to allow Union to drive to Manchester rather than fly to St. Louis.
Also, St. Louis is a very problematic regional for the NCAA. The NCAA has generally been unhappy with low attendance at their regional sites, not just due to the lack of revenue, but because the TV broadcasts of half-empty arenas hurt their efforts to get more people to follow the sport. This is going to be an issue in St. Louis no matter who gets placed there because it is at least a drive of several hours for fans of the closest teams, and the regional will be played in a NHL arena. So placing a team like Michigan that can draw fans pretty much anywhere in St. Louis is probably something the NCAA would like to do if they can get away with it.
A final quick note: NoDak is not likely to be a big draw in St. Louis, as they are 850 miles away.
February 20th, 2011 at 9:41 PM ^
How does the NCAA even pick regional sites as they seem to be pretty obscure most of the time?
For instance, St. Louis? To my knowledge theres not too many big college hockey programs in the St. Louis area, and to boot, the CCHA is hosting this regional. Wouldn't it make more sense to host it at the Joe, or even where the Blue Jackets play? Heck even in Toledo where the Walleye play could be a better place.
February 20th, 2011 at 1:48 AM ^
What are the chances that even if the standings were to finish like this, we'd get put in the St. Louis or Green Bay region? Those places would be a hell of a better drive than the 13 hour drive to the east coast.
February 20th, 2011 at 1:55 AM ^
I'd really rather play UND in St Louis or Green Bay than BC on the east coast. Lesser of two evils. Last years tourney was perfect by location, if the refs didn't decide to rip our storybook up before the ending. Ft Wayne then Detroit was going to be awesome. Augh I can't get caught in this again, THIS YEAR WILL AVENGE IT
edit: to answer, though, it seems slim. Def not Green Bay, maybe St. Louie. Check green bay out, it has Wisconsin and UMD, and probably wouldn't allow for us at this position.
If we get a 1-seed, then it'll probably happen. Not out of the question if the chips fall into place. Look at the scores from tonight, seems like everyone got upset except us
February 20th, 2011 at 2:13 AM ^
Well shucks. If I remember correctly last year, we were not technically supposed to go to Fort Wayne, but they put us there for attendance? Heck, I might be making that up but I thought I heard that.
My vote is for St. Louis, seems like a cool town to visit, probably decent bars, and we would yes as you said, probably avoid those hockey crazed eastern colleges (ala BC) in their backyard. Granted, I've only seen Michigan, and the teams the've played,so I really dont know how Michigan would match up.
February 20th, 2011 at 10:18 AM ^
st. louis also has one of the best BBQ joints in the country. If anybody is going if we get put in st. louis I implore you to go here, you will not be disappointed.
February 20th, 2011 at 2:17 AM ^
If the standings end up like they are now, very slim. The problem is that Notre Dame and Miami are #3 seeds and the NCAA will avoid a CCHA matchup in the 1st round if possible. There is also a 400 mile threshold set that allows teams to bus to regionals instead of flying. Notre Dame is within 400 miles of both St. Louis and Green Bay, while Miami is 400 miles from St. Louis. We are neither. So to the NCAA, we are a flight no matter the seed or site and they could limit the number of flights by putting other CCHA teams out west.
On the other hand, I've heard from numerous people that the NCAA would like to put us in St. Louis if possible because of the connection to Red, who played with and coached the Blues in the 70's and 80's and that having him there would be a huge draw for attendance. I just don't know if the NCAA would go against there other predetermined criteria for bracketing the teams to ensure that from happening.
So I would say St. Louis would be more likely than Green Bay at this point, but neither are that likely.
February 20th, 2011 at 2:23 AM ^
If we can win the CCHA tournament and we get some help from a variety of teams (Ferris, OSU, and LSSU do well, North Dakota wins the WCHA and Minn-Duluth has some issues, BC wins the Hockey East, Merrimack loses a couple games against TUCs, etc.)*, then we'll be a 1-seed. If we fail to win the CCHA tournament, then we almost certainly won't.
*Not all of these things need to happen, just some of them.
February 20th, 2011 at 1:56 PM ^
I have a feeling that ND will drop at least one point next week against Western, which leaves the door open for Michigan if we can get the sweep.
This team has to be flying high after last night as well as the last two weekends. They believe this could be the year which is a far cry from where we were after the Miami series.
So back to tie breakers, If ND were to drop even one point (ie winning one game in a shootout) and Michigan got the sweep, Michigan would win the tie breaker because of the conference win total.
I would love to add another banner to the Yost rafters, and I think we'll get our shot next weekend!
EDIT: How about 3 banners? CCHA Regular Season, CCHA Tourney, and National Title.
February 20th, 2011 at 2:01 PM ^
I just wanted to add in a thanks to you for describing how the pairwise works. I had been aware of it but never really understood how the pairwise comparisons were used. This was very helpful.
February 20th, 2011 at 2:30 PM ^
Also, good "Coach" reference. That show deserves a good once-over through Netflix.
February 20th, 2011 at 5:07 PM ^
Nice breakdown. I think if everything plays out the way it should (sweep/win-and-tie to Northern and a decent run in the CCHA tournament), then #2 in GB sounds about right. I don't follow the other conferences as much as the CCHA, but it sounds like they are pretty set in terms of the top teams, and few of the lower teams would really be able to flip comparisons with UM.
February 21st, 2011 at 2:19 AM ^
What happens if we somehow tie ND in points? Do they do a tiebreaker or is there a share of the CCHA reg season title? If they use the tiebreaker, I understand the order of operations, but it could be that they don't tiebreak for the top spot, I don't really know
I think the only way to tie them would be if they win in a shootout and we sweep or if we lose in a shootout and they lose a game, right? Anyone know which team would win the tiebreak if there is one?
February 21st, 2011 at 8:44 AM ^
The tiebreaker is wins (not counting shootout wins), where we lead by 1. I suppose it's possible that ND has a win and a loss against Western, and we get two shootout wins against Northern (although I don't know if we've won a shootout since the CCHA started doing them), but otherwise a tie in points gives us the top seed in the CCHA tournament. I would imagine both teams would officially share the CCHA title.
February 21st, 2011 at 1:06 PM ^
On the Who / What To Root For front:
Root for Michigan? Check!
Root against Notre Dame and Michigan State? Check and check!
Root for Ohio State to split with Ferris and make the CCHA quarterfinals? ... Uhm, I'll have to get back to you on that one. (It's like Homer Simpson learning that to treat his leprosy he has to live in a clean environment - "The cure is worse than the disease!")
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