Hockey pairwise update 3/19/11 (updated with all games completed)

Submitted by mfan_in_ohio on

Note: this diary has changed quite a bit since it was originally posted.  The Michigan win over Notre Dame made a huge difference in their final position, as did the WCHA, CCHA, and Hockey East championships. 

 

Saturday's important results

Michigan 4, Notre Dame 2

BC 5, Merrimack 3

Miami 5, Western 2

North Dakota 3, Denver 2 in OT

 

Pairwise rankings

1.Yale

2.North Dakota

3.Boston College

4.Miami

5.Michigan

6.Merrimack

7.Denver

8.Union

9.Minn-Duluth

10.Western Michigan

11.Notre Dame

12.Nebraska-Omaha

13.New Hampshire

14.Colorado College

15.Rensselaer

16.Air Force

Air Force won their conference tournament, so they get the autobid and 16th spot.

Now what?

UNH has dropped to a #4 seed. Since they stay in Manchester as the host school, and the committee does not want intraconference first round matchups, BC would probably be the #1 in St. Louis.  Here is how the brackets should look:

Bridgeport

1. Yale

16. Air Force

8. Union

9. Minn.-Duluth

Manchester

4. Miami

13. UNH

6. Merrimack

11. Notre Dame

Green Bay

2. North Dakota

15. Rensselaer

7. Denver

10. Western Michigan

St. Louis

3.  Boston College

14. Colorado College

5. Michigan

12. Nebraska-Omaha

This bracket has no intraconference matchups in the first round.  It also limits travel as much as possible, and at least gets a team or two that might draw fans in St. Louis. Merrimack gets placed in Manchester to at least have a team other than UNH that will fill those seats. The original location would have been Michigan and Miami in Manchester, with BC and Merrimack in St. Louis.  That seems stupid.

The most likely way for this bracket to change is if the committee decides not to put both Denver and North Dakota in the same region.  The Michigan-UNO pairing would get switched with the Denver-Western pairing in that case.  I don't think they'll do that, however, because it might absolutely kill the attendance in St. Louis.  At least Michigan has the fan base to bring people to St. Louis, and Nebraska-Omaha is within driving distance.  Denver and Western probably don't draw people to St. Louis.  They could also switch Denver and Merrimack, but that would mean a regional in New Hampshire with three "western" teams, and you could have a lot of empty arenas, which the NCAA abhors.  Also, there is more bracket integrity with the above setup.

The only way that this bracket could see substantial change is if the committee bumps UNH up to a 3 seed, switching them with UNO.  This would be way against their stated principles, but it would allow them to put BC and UNH in the Manchester regional without playing each other, and have Miami host in St. Louis.  Michigan would probably get sent to Manchester in that unlikely scenario.

Selection Sunday is tomorrow at 11:30 am on ESPN2, when we'll find out for real.  Go Blue!

Comments

mfan_in_ohio

March 19th, 2011 at 9:02 PM ^

Should Michigan end up in St. Louis, with BC, UNO, and CC, that is basically best-case scenario.  We split with UNO back in October, but they are really limping into the tournament, losing four of their last five, including getting swept (again) by Bemidji State. Colorado College is a team that has a chance at knocking off BC, especially with BC having to travel quite a bit for the game.  CC scores a lot of goals at times, as in their 6-5 loss to us at the GLI.  BC is BC.  They are really good, and if we have to play them, I hope it's not in Manchester, which is almost a home game for them.  I'd also rather play them than Miami right now, just because I think Miami is absolutely on fire, and they really pounded us last month. 

JustGoBlue

March 19th, 2011 at 9:41 PM ^

i really, do NOT want to play in the tournament at any point.  So not being in their regional would be nice, because that gives them the most chances to get knocked off before we have to play them.  They're pretty close together, but in order, those teams are:

1.  North Dakota

2. Miami

3.  Boston College

They're all really, freaking good.  So BC as the one seed, if we don't end up getting it (I have the CCHA final currently as 2-1 Miami, after 2) is pretty much the best case scenario, especially if we get them in the west, compared to Yale in Bridgeport.  There are several more teams that are dangerous, but those are the three that I would go into feeling we have slightly less than at least a 50% chance to win.

JustGoBlue

March 19th, 2011 at 10:22 PM ^

5-2 final for their first ever Mason Cup.

BC beats Merrimack, Denver still down to North Dakota, 2-1 with 10 left in the third.

Interesting to note last year Miami won the regular season and Michigan won the tournament and this year the results were reversed.  Also interesting to note that the senior class graduates with 2 regular season titles and two CCHA tournament titles.  The next step is to make it two Frozen Fours and from there, 1 National Championship. 

redwings8831

March 20th, 2011 at 12:09 AM ^

North Dakota has finished off Denver in the WCHA finals and ending all the games. Below are the final pairwise rankings:

1. Yale (ECAC) - 29

2. North Dakota (WCHA) - 28

3. Boston College (HE) - 27

4. Miami (CCHA) - 26

-------

5. Michigan (CCHA) - 24

6. Merrimack (HE) - 24

7. Denver (WCHA) - 23

8. Union (ECAC) - 22

-------

9. Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA) - 21

10. Western Michigan (CCHA) - 19

11. Notre Dame (CCHA) - 18

12. Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA) - 17

-------

13. New Hampshire (HE) - 16

14. Colorado College (WCHA) - 16

15. RPI - 16 (ECAC) - 16

16. Air Force (Atlantic Hockey Champ)

 

Bracket coming.

redwings8831

March 20th, 2011 at 12:34 AM ^

To fill out the bracket we need to place the host schools first, which are Yale and New Hampshire. Yale will be the #1 in Bridgeport while New Hampshire will be the #4 in Manchester.



Bridgeport:

1. Yale (ECAC - #1 overall)

2.

3.

4.

Green Bay:

1.

2.

3.

4.

St. Louis:

1.

2.

3.

4.

Manchester:

1.

2.

3.

4. New Hampshire (Hockey East - #13 overall)

----------------------------------------------------------------

Now to fill in the rest of the #1's, North Dakota, Boston College and Miami. Lets start with BC. They would be in Manchester, but since the #4 seed is from the same conference as them, they have to be sent out west. I'm putting them in St. Louis. Thus, one of the western teams have to be sent to Manchester and will get to play New Hampshire who is the host. This will probably be Miami since they are the lower of the two western #1 seeds.



NOTE: This would be Michigan had we won the CCHA Playoffs.

Bridgeport:

1. Yale (ECAC - #1 overall)

2.

3.

4.

Green Bay:

1. North Dakota (#2 overall)

2.

3.

4.

St. Louis:

1. Boston College (Hockey East - #3 overall)

2.

3.

4.

Manchester:

1. Miami (CCHA - #4 overall)

2.

3.

4. New Hampshire (Hockey East - #13 overall)

----------------------------------------------------------------

We now want to fill in the rest of the bracket by keeping bracket integrity, accouting for attendance, and keeping teams that can bus to sites in those sites if possible.

Union will go to Bridgeport (keeping the 1-8 together). I think Merrimack will stay east (Manchester) while Denver and Michigan will be in St. Louis or Green Bay. To determine who is where, we have to look at the #3 seeds. I believe Minnesota-Duluth will get Green Bay over Western Michigan (both teams can bus) for attendance purposes (although WMU could bring a ton of fans like they did to the Joe). Since Notre Dame is the only team that can bus to St. Louis, they will go there.

Bridgeport:

1. Yale (ECAC - #1 overall)

2. Union (ECAC - #8 overall)

3.

4.

Green Bay:

1. North Dakota (#2 overall)

2.

3. Minnesota-Duluth (#9 overall)

4.

St. Louis:

1. Boston College (Hockey East - #3 overall)

2.

3. Notre Dame (CCHA - #11 overall)

4.

Manchester:

1. Miami (CCHA - #4 overall)

2. Merrimack (Hockey East - #6 overall)

3.

4. New Hampshire (Hockey East - #13 overall)

----------------------------------------------------------------

Now we can fill in the rest of the #2 seeds and #3 seeds. Michigan has to go to Green Bay (avoid CCHA 1st round matchup in St. Louis) and Denver has to go to St. Louis (avoid WCHA 1st round matchup in Green Bay). Western Michigan would go to Bridgeport and Nebraska-Omaha would go to Manchester (better bracket integrity for both matchups).

Bridgeport:

1. Yale (ECAC - #1 overall)

2. Union (ECAC - #8 overall)

3. Western Michigan (CCHA - #10 overall)

4.

Green Bay:

1. North Dakota (WCHA - #2 overall)

2. Michigan (CCHA - #5 overall)

3. Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA - #9 overall)

4.

St. Louis:

1. Boston College (Hockey East - #3 overall)

2. Denver (WCHA - #7 overall)

3. Notre Dame (CCHA - #11 overall)

4.

Manchester:

1. Miami (CCHA - #4 overall)

2. Merrimack (Hockey East - #6 overall)

3. Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA - #12 overall)

4. New Hampshire (Hockey East - #13 overall)

----------------------------------------------------------------

Finally we have to fill in the last three #4 seeds, RPI, Colorado College, and Air Force. Colorado College will be in St. Louis, leaving RPI for Green Bay and Air Force for Bridgeport.

Final Brackets:

Bridgeport:

1. Yale (ECAC - #1 overall)

2. Union (ECAC - #8 overall)

3. Western Michigan (CCHA - #10 overall)

4. Air Force (Atlantic Hockey - #16 overall)

Green Bay:

1. North Dakota (WCHA - #2 overall)

2. Michigan (CCHA - #5 overall)

3. Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA - #9 overall)

4. RPI (ECAC - #15 overall)

St. Louis:

1. Boston College (Hockey East - #3 overall)

2. Denver (WCHA - #7 overall)

3. Notre Dame (CCHA - #11 overall)

4. Colorado College (WCHA - #14 overall)

Manchester:

1. Miami (CCHA - #4 overall)

2. Merrimack (Hockey East - #6 overall)

3. Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA - #12 overall)

4. New Hampshire (Hockey East - #13 overall)

trackcapt

March 20th, 2011 at 11:19 AM ^

Your seedings/pairings make sense to me, all except the positions of Miami and BC.  Why would the committee make a 3-5, 4-6 set up, sending BC to St. Louis and Miami to Manchester, when they could have the natural, 3-6, 4-5 set up and keep BC (Manchester) and Miami (St. Louis) in their home regions and increase fan attendance?  Moreover, if you're one of the top 4 seeds, wouldn't you get preference to stay in your home region over lower seeds?  And this just so we don't have any intraconference matchups?  That seems like a worse trade-off to me.  So you get two (potential) intraconference matchups in the second round in Michigan-Miami and BC-Merrimack--who cares?  And it's really only net one more (potential) intraconference matchup, as Miami-ND goes away.