Hockey at-large bid.. Oops I crapped my pants

Submitted by Wolverine In Exile on

So that happened.

 

In probably the worst case scenario, Michigan hockey dropped both games at Penn St, while other things in the conference have basically assured that the B1G will be a ONE BID CONFERENCE. Yes, you read that right-- the conference of multiple national champions Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, and Wisconsin will get a grand total of 1 team into the NCAA tournament this year. The breakdown:

- Michigan sits tied for 19th in PairWise Ranking (PWR). It would take essentially a 3-4 game win streak to get back into the 14th or higher PWR position, and with the results from this past weekend that's no guarantee since the teams above UM are all still alive in their conference tourneys and wil be playing meaningful opponents meaning their PWR will probably not take a huge hit at this point. BTW- a 4 game win streak means we won the BTT which makes the at-large bid a moot point anyway.

- Minnesota with their split against Ohio St, now sits on the hairy precipice of losing their at-large bid fallback plan (sound familiar?). They are tied for 14th in PWR and need a winning streak to stay up (remember the 16th slot in the tourney this year is already tabbed essentially for the Atlantic Hockey tourney champ, so any at large teams are going to have to finish at least 15th in PWR, more likely 14th or higher to absorb a cinderella tourney champ from another conference). A sweep for Minnesota next week against Penn St and a Semi final win in the BTT might still get them in as an at-large, but they're going to have to hope that 1 and 2 seeds in confernce tourneys win out so that the PWR 13-18 teams don't get a bump from a winning streak in their conference tourneys.

- It's basically cannibalism at this point in the B1G tourney. A cinderella run resulting in a tourney championship from a team not in consideration today (PSU, OSU, MSU, WIscy) will definately knock Michigan out of an at-large run, and possibly/probably Minnesota too (especially if it's two cinderella teams in the final, i.e. Michigan and Minnesota lose in the tourney semis).

- And oh BTW, in case you needed more depressing news, Michigan State is in the drivers seat to hang a banner as B1G Regulart Season champions. As if they needed more motivation for next weekend, MICHIGAN STATE can win the regular season conference title with a sweep against us, no matter what Minnesota does. A split with us and a Minnesota split gives Sparty the title too. Talk about depressing. Now I know how Tottenham fans feel. (apologies for the EPL reference)

Silver linings and bottom lines? A couple:

 - Michigan's only viable path to a NCAA bid at this point is likely to win the tourney title. Not out of the realm of possibility at all, but with the consistency (and frankly coaching / testicular fortitude) questions overhanging the team, I wouldn't bet on it.

- We still can salvage some Europa League title like satisfcation next weekend. If we sweep, we win the B1G regular season and hang a banner next year. We would be at worst tied with Minnesota in points and we win the tiebreaker over the Gophers based on more wins in conference. (Insert tiny flag waving here). Maybe that motivation is tangible enough to get an inspired performance for two games in a row??? The way thigns are shaking out, I'd hope for a Michigan sweep and a split by Minnesota with Penn St so that Penn St stays out of our semifinal.

Side thought stream of consciousness: I mentioned it in a comment on the Saturday night open thread, but we may seriously need to think about sacraficing some sort of animal with an Al Montoya jersey on it. Every since he left the season early in 2005, Michigan has not had that 3-4 year recruited goaltender that the 90's - early 2000's powerhouses could rely on. We lucked into Tiny Jesus Shawn Hunwick after whiffing on / getting mugged by John Gibson and our goaltending has not been consistently adequate in going on 10 years... Is this the REAL failure of the contemporary Red Berenson era? Not being able to close the deal on a top flight goaltender?? Is this something that falls on Billy Powers or Josh Blackburn? Will I need a really big bottle of scotch next weekend??

Comments

Wolvie3758

March 9th, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^

All the talk about "NHL" talent on this team and yet they are about to FAIL to make the NCAA tourney for the 3rd consecutive year..They had a reg season Big Ten title in their grasp and completely and utterly CHOKED at Penn St...at this point I see nothing from this team that suggests they would be able to sweep MSU this weekend so Im chalking that up as a no go..

This team had better get its act together and PRONTO if they want to salvage this season

A very disappoinbting effort last week with every thing on the line suggests a team with little to no heart...There I said it

Sac Fly

March 9th, 2015 at 12:32 PM ^

Goalie recruiting has been fine. Hogan was a highly touted goaltender and had a great career until the groin tear. So was Rutledge.

The problem is that top flight starters don't like to share, so in most cases you can only get 1 guy like that on the roster unless they're a senior/freshman combo. If your guy doesn't pan out, that's too bad.

But honestly, with how poor our d-zone coverage has been for the last 5 years it doesn't matter who's in net.

Wolverine In Exile

March 9th, 2015 at 2:46 PM ^

Red has shown he's not against coaching defense to win. When Hunwick got the nod, we basically went from a fly by the seat of your pants outfit to a two way backchecking "form a f*g wall" unit with great results. Granted that was the last year with Pearson, so maybe that is the thing. Interesting that up at Tech, Pearson is also employing Bill Muckalt and Steve Shields as assistants....

Sac Fly

March 9th, 2015 at 3:49 PM ^

It was more of a trust factor with the players, not because of the coaching. They didn't clear the crease or collapse on net for Hogan, because they had played with him and knew he could handle what was coming.

For Hunwick, the players had never seen him in a game. They fought like dogs around the net because they had no idea what was going to happen if a puck got through.

Maddogrdt

March 9th, 2015 at 12:32 PM ^

Really sits on the Defensive side- part of that is scheme and the lack of the team to apply it (coaching & players) and part on our unlucky goalie recruiting string...We are like the fast break denver nuggets, forgoing serious back checking for chance to push offense.

 

Really sad as I sit with a few BC grads that are non-stop hockey talk and updates on who is in/out of Tourney...

ericarlyons

March 9th, 2015 at 2:11 PM ^

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gwkrlghl

March 9th, 2015 at 3:27 PM ^

is it's a 6 team league. Muuuch easier to steal an autobid than in the days of the CCHA where there was the best-of-3 and then heading to the Joe. If we can get a bye, I believe it's just two wins to the tournament and there's no one in the Big Ten we can't beat

Canadian

March 10th, 2015 at 11:16 AM ^

And this is why the B1G tournament is a fucking joke. When you have such a small league why not finish your regular season two weeks ago and have best of three series hosted on campus at higher seed.
Last weekend would've been 6@3 & 5@4
This week would be reseeded so that the 1 seed plays at home against the lowest seeded team and the 2 seed plays host to the other winner
Next weekend instead of playing at an nhl venue you have a best of three series hosted by the highest seed remaining.

Make it a true playoff and make the regular season mean more by having the series on campus.

Wolverine In Exile

March 10th, 2015 at 11:42 AM ^

If the B1G tourney ran as you suggested, there would be more of a chance for "bonus point" RPI victories to be picked up by bubble teams in those semi and final round best of 3 series which would increase our chances of multiple B1G teams in the NCAA tourney as at-large teams. In normal years. Which this year is not. (sad face)

25dodgebros

March 9th, 2015 at 3:48 PM ^

The primary problem with the program the last 6-7 years is that they do not consistently play hard at both ends of the ice.  If  you ever pay attention to Mike Babcock, you will hear him say one word alot - Compete.  In hockey, it means winning the one on one battles, picking up your man, finishing the check, going to the front of the net, keeping the right spacing on D, not making lazy passes, taking a check to make a pass, etc etc.  Red's recent teams lack the level of compete necessary to win consistently.  We are 2-7,  I believe,  against Penn State the last two years despite a gross disparity in raw talent.  Penn State's compete level is much higher and they are rewarded with wins against a Michigan team that just chooses not to compete and thereby chooses to be mediocre.  

If Harbaugh (a coach who inspires players to compete) coached the 2014 UM football team I believe we would have won at least 3 more games with Hoke's players. Likewise, if a coach who inspired compete coached UM hockey this year,  we win at least 8 more games,  win BiG 10 easily, and are worrying  about seeding in NCAA not sitting at home.