This is our off-season strategy, and I love it

It's easy to forget that the "Hail Mary" is not just a football play, but also a prayer.  While Brady Hoke's desired scheme is more Lloyd Carr than Rich Rodriguez, his coaching approach is certainly closer to Art Briles' play-calling than Mike DeBord's.

So what the hell does that mean?

I love--as I believe most do--Hoke's aggressiveness on fourth down.  But we've learned quite a bit more about his willingness to go "all in" this off-season, and the result will be a 2014 team that looks drastically different from its predecessor.  No less than six position changes that could affect the starting line-up, a new offensive coordinator, and significant scheme change on defense.  This is the "Hail Mary" off-season: it is both a long, risky pass, and a prayer.

2013, to me, was The Season of Infinite Pain.  It wasn't just the losing, it was the way we lost.  The go-backwards offense that decided four downs were just too many combined with a defense that seemed to know exactly when to self-destruct made for a season that was excrutiatingly painful to watch, and I believe that the manner in which we lost (and won) was even more of a factor in our recruiting death spiral than the record itself.  In the few games where the offense did click (Notre Dame, Indiana, Ohio) the defense couldn't keep-up, and the offensive line was never even close to adequate.

I hope we're all still smiling in December

So what did Brady Hoke do about this?  He fired his friend and Offensive Coordinator--with whom he'd had lots of success.  He made wholesale changes to the positions the defensive staff coaches, and removed himself as a position coach.  He will be instituting a new scheme on both sides of the ball--completely new on offense, and moving from a 4-3 Under to a 4-3 Over on defense.  Make no mistake about it, this change on defense is almost as significant as moving from a 3-4 to a 4-3 (but not as significant as going to a 3-3-5).  On top of that, Hoke is reshuffling a slew of starters and key back-ups.

Here's what I love about this:

• It's all on Hoke.  If this season ends in disaster, the J. Ira and Blah Blah Blah Coach will be the last place for the finger to point.  It's mostly his roster, the coaching staff has been rebuilt, player positions have been changed.  The answer to the question, "Can Brady Hoke coach?" is now clearly: "See 2014 season."
• The courage to change.  I get Brian's negativity about some of the changes.  A new OC?  A new scheme on defense?  Changing the position of your best player on defense (maybe the best player on the team)?  It all smacks of desperation.  That's scary as hell, and should make you nervous.  It makes me nervous.  But last year was awful, and here is a coach saying, "You know what?  We have to make significant changes.  Tweaks aren't going to do it."  He's admitting the failure--not just through coachspeak--and making changes that could turn things around.
• Win or lose, this should be better to watch.  Devin Gardner called it "a new style of practice."  We know that Nussmeier at least practiced the no huddle at Alabama.  Whether or not we see U-M stopping for a group chat between every play this season, I would expect the offense to move more quickly and the QBs to have more time at the line.  I can damn near guarantee you'll see some of the constraint plays many on this board have been clamoring for, since Nuss' has always used WR screens and extended hand-offs.  And we now know that Devin Funchess will be playing "on the outside."  Nussmeier has always used a balanced attack that focuses on getting the ball in the hands of his playmakers and scoring points.  Even if our offense doesn't set records this year, it should be a lot more fun to watch.
• Defense, too.  The Tampa Two defenses that were en vogue in the NLF in the early '00's (and longer for the Lions) proved that "bend-but-don't-break" defense could work.  Forcing the offense to plod towards the end zone and use all their downs increases the chances of a mistake and forces an offense to be more precise.  I have two problems with that: 1) It's much harder to do against a no-huddle offense, since you can't rotate your D-Line as much, which MUST get pressure.  2) It's not as fun to watch.  Last season, it often seemed like Mattison's "Keep the ball inside and in front" mantra mostly meant, "If you want a first down passing over the middle, we're happy to give it to you."  Compounding that frustration was the snake-bitten (or gypsy-cursed) outside coverage that always seemed to be in the right place at the right time but didn't make the play.  Even though we produced 17 INTs and nearly as many turnovers as we did in 2011 (when we recovered a ridiculous 20 fumbles) it never felt like a game-changing or play-making defense, mostly because there were far too many times when we let teams like Akron, Penn State, Indiana, 2nd-half Iowa, Ohio State, and Kansas State move the ball seemingly at will.  Too many times, when it mattered most, our defense whiffed.  Hoke says NO MORE!  The changes that have been made public about positions and scheme strongly suggest we are moving to a high-pressure, in your face defense closer to MSU's style than Monte Kiffin's.  I expect more blitzing, more play-making, and more TFLs.  Might we get torched more often?  Maybe, but I'd rather watch that brand of football, and I think players (and recruits) would rather play that way.
• Musical chairs on defense.  Moving Keith Heitzman to TE is a virtual no-lose change: here's a guy who had been passed by younger players at SDE, switching to a position he played in high school where we need toughness and depth.  But moving your best defender (and maybe player) to MLB from what was closer to a 3-4 OLB?  It's a gamble, and not a small one.  The upside is huge: if you go right, Jake Ryan is there; if you go left, JMFR is there.  Starting from the middle, he has the potential to be involved in every play.  But what if he's not very good at his new job?  What if JRIII gets put on his ass by opposing TEs?  What if Desmond Morgan is too slow to play the WILL in a 4-3 Over?  Hoke took his deepest, most experienced position group on the entire team and changed everything.  If it works, it could be beautiful.  If it doesn't, he could be fired.  But Jake Ryan went from 6.8 tackles/game to 3.7 and, even more alarming, from 1.27 TFLs/game to 0.56.  Sure, some of that is the injury, but some of that is opposing teams saying, "We're not letting him beat us."  Now?  Defensive coordinators will have to fool Ryan to beat him, because we already know he can shed blocks and move sideline-to-sideline.  If he can diagnose plays, he's going to kick some serious ass in 2014.  And now Mattison is his position coach.

Do these changes make me nervous?  Of course.  These are huge changes, and change always brings risk.  But, to me, these changes seem to directly address the issues--both in terms of success and enjoyment--that made 2013 so damn unwatchable.  And win or lose, we'll know what we have in a head coach.

What it all boils down to is this: it's Hoke's fourth season, and very much the fourth quarter in a game he's losing to stay on as Michigan's blah blah blah Head Coach.  And he's not calling the safe, conservative I-form off tackle play, or even the single-back play-action post; while it may require some help from the heavens, he's calling the fucking Hail Mary.

We'll just have to pray it works.