Grading the Big 10 Programs/Coaches

The Dantonio/Bielema temper tantrums about Urban Meyer’s recruiting tactics got me thinking: they’re just scared.  For the past few years, these programs have been making moves towards the elite level of the Big 10.  You know, the territory traditionally reserved for Michigan and Ohio.  We helped them do that, thanks to our little flirtation with the bottom half of the conference.  Ohio too, what with the vacated wins, departing coach and imminent postseason ban.  Unfortunately for the nouveau riche of the conference, though, the old money has reasserted itself in a big way, with the traditional powers of the conference absolutely dominating the 2012 recruiting cycle.  It was if, from subterranean offices near playing fields in East Lansing and Madison, the newcomers looked to Ann Arbor and Columbus and heard the words: “I’m sorry, sir, but the this is an exclusive country club. Perhaps you’d be happier with a more…local option?” 

Whether there’s any truth to this is another story, but you can feel the paranoia emanating from those who think their window of opportunity may be closing.   So how accurate are they?  What kind of opportunities do exist for the various schools in the conference, with their current rosters, recruits and coaching staffs?  I decided to take this question on with a bit of qualitative analysis, by grading the performance of each team in 2011 and its recruiting class for 2012.  Then I predict what the near future holds for these schools, with a brief outlook and then a predicted average wins (in the regular season) over the next 3-5 years, given the current coaching staff and their likely performance in recruiting, training and coaching.  Finally, I choose the 2012 model car that I believe best encapsulates all this information.  Why?  Because I like cars, that’s why. 

But let me run through a quick example to show you why it’s appropriate.  For Brady Hoke, I chose the 2012 BMW M5. That would be the F10 model, for all you gearheads out there, an efficient-and-deadly speedster powered by a V8 biturbo engine.  His predecessor Rich Rodriguez, by extension, is the now defunct E60 version, which broke from long-standing tradition by installing a naturally aspirated V10 instead of the traditional V8.  This model was, and remains, the favorite of a core of enthusiasts who fell in love with its raw power and pure, unadultered speed.  Problem was, it didn’t handle so well in some pretty basic conditions, and ran through gas like nobody’s business.  The 2012 M5, then, is something of a return to what M5s are traditionally good at—delivering high performance consistently and efficiently—if, in the process, it loses a dab of peak performance in a straight-ahead race.  Channel Fred Jackson and think Carr-level success, only turbocharged!

So with that said, here’s your conference for you…

Big 10 Programs/Coaches

1. Illinois

Coach: Tim Beckman

2011 Season Grade: C-

2012 Recruiting Grade: F

Outlook: Zook dropped the FAIL grenade on the Illini after the sixth game of the season, and so the AD went searching for a new coach.  Wait…and they hired that guy?? Maybe Beckman surprises us all, but it doesn’t look good for the Illini.  Sure Zook was the class clown of the conference, but he did actually get some actually good players to play for Illinois, and he did actually get Illinois to a Rose Bowl back in 2007.  Beckman?  There’s nothing in his resume that suggests he’ll turn Illinois from mediocre to good, and a lot to suggest they’ll stay on the low end of mediocre. 

Predicted avg. wins over next 3-5 years: 5

As a 2012 model car: Fiat 500.  Underneath the shiny new exterior, it’s still a very small Chrysler. 

2. Indiana

Coach: Kevin Wilson

2011 Season Grade: F

2012 Recruiting Grade: F

Outlook: DOOM. 

Predicted avg. wins over next 3-5 years: 3

As a 2012 model car: Smart ForTwo, which appears to have been dreamed up by people who know nothing about cars, care nothing about cars and wish they were working in the gift card and/or baby stroller manufacturing industries.  Oh, and it’s basically ready-made to get crushed to death in a dustup with any other vehicle imaginable, including bicycles, pedicabs and actual baby strollers. 

3. Iowa

Coach: Kirk Ferentz

2011 Season Grade: B-

2012 Recruiting Grade: B

Outlook: More, more, more of the same, which of course means disciplined, sure-tackling vanilla defenses coupled with bruising but unimaginative MANBALL offenses.  Fine, generally, when you get them at home, but a pain-in-the-ass to play away.

Predicted avg. wins over next 3-5 years: 7

As a 2012 model car: Ford F-150.  Bulky, cumbersome and can’t really corner, but rugged, efficient and lasts forever. 

4. Michigan

Coach: Brady Hoke

2011 Season Grade: A

2012 Recruiting Grade: A

Outlook: Rosy.  Hoke and his staff got 11 wins with spotty talent, an offense built for a system his coordinator didn’t really know that well, close to zero depth and what was, just a year ago, Michigan’s worst defense ever.   If he can do this with that, imagine what he can do when he has all his pieces in place?  We’re going to be really good for a while, though I expect 2012 and 2013 to be a little more difficult than 2011 was.  We’re back, though.  We’re ****ing back. 

Predicted avg. wins over next 3-5 years: 10

As a 2012 model car: BMW M5.  A classy return to traditional form, while capturing a lot of what people liked about the last variant. German efficiency all sported up. 

5. MSU

Coach: Mark Dantonio

2011 Season Grade: A (as much as it pains me to say it)

2012 Recruiting Grade: B

Outlook: Dantonio has put together the best back-to-back Sparty seasons probably since the 1960s.  A classic WWF-style heel, this is the kind of guy who cuts assistant coaches off during presentations and allegedly doesn’t like well-wishers who work at rival teams’ stadiums.  But the heel can coach, having taken advantage of our brief recruiting emphasis on small/fast dudes from outside the state to put together a genuinely good, prototypical Big 10 squad.  Now that we’re back, and splitting basically 90% of their top recruiting targets with Ohio, expect some regression to the mean. 

Predicted avg. wins over next 3-5 years: 8

As a 2012 model car: Chevrolet Camaro SS.  It’s got a big block engine and can go pretty fast, but it’s fairly simplistic at the end of the day.  Might look flash peeling out on the straights, but it’s bound to let you down on the corners.  Plus it’s going to look really embarrassing in a few years. 

6. Minnesota

Coach: Jerry Kill

2011 Season Grade: D-

2012 Recruiting Grade: D-

Outlook: It can’t get much worse than the beatdown we put on these guys, and luckily for them, it did get a little better towards the end.  Kill is a pretty good coach, but he’s drinking from a poisoned chalice.  If they give him the chance, I expect him to improve things over the long haul, but perhaps not enough in the short-term for that chance to be granted. 

Predicted avg. wins over next 3-5 years: 4

As a 2012 model car: Hyundai Azera.  No one cares about this car, but it’s supposed to have good resale value.  So that's something...

7. Nebraska

Coach: Bo Pelini

2011 Season Grade: B

2012 Recruiting Grade: C+

Outlook: Hard to say, because Nebraska is both the new guy and the odd duck in the Big 10.  I’d say based on flimsy evidence that it looks pretty good, but not that good.  Everyone expected them to contend for the conference title this year, but they weren’t really all that impressive.  On the other hand, they’ve won 9+ games each of the last four seasons…though three of those were in the Big 12 North. 

Predicted avg. wins over next 3-5 years: 8

As a 2012 model car: Nissan 370Z.  Weird looking, the 370Z still manages respectable numbers, like a 4.7 second 0-60, provided you’re going straight ahead with no complications. That’s good for 8 wins, right? 

8. Northwestern

Coach: Pat Fitzgerald

2011 Season Grade: C+

2012 Recruiting Grade: B+

Outlook: It’s never really clear how the Wildcats are going to do.  Some years they beat expectations, whereas in others (like 2011), they fail to meet them.  Souped-up mediocrity.  

Predicted avg. wins over next 3-5 years:

As a 2012 model car: Mazda RX-8, the kind of low cost sports car kids like to paint neon green.  

9. Ohio

Coach: Urban Meyer

2011 Season Grade: C-

2012 Recruiting Grade: A

Outlook: Detention for 2012, but mostly blue skies after that, provided Ohio can solve three problems.  The first one is the little issue of probation.  Neither Ohio nor Meyer can be said to have run a tight ship over the past few years, and unlike pre-tats Columbus or pre-retirement Gainesville, all NCAA and journalistic eyes are trained on every Ohio player’s every move.  Meyer’s going to have to run a squeaky clean problem, and that may very well entail letting go of players he wants to keep—not just the ones who free up scholarships for more promising recruits.  The second problem concerns Meyer himself.  He’s not exactly one to stay in the same place for long—he was at Bowling Green for 2 years, Utah for another 2, and at Florida for 5.5 (if you indeed count the last one at all).  Maybe that’s trending in the right direction for Ohio, but smart money says he doesn’t stay forever, or even as long as Jimbob did.  Finally, there are the fans.  Not all of Urban’s Florida teams were good, but he had the benefit of following Ron Zook’s Travelling Underachiever Freakshow.  Now he answers to a fickle fanbase that has come to expect a Tresselesque (10+wins including Michigan)/year, only with moar national championships plz.  Expect one, but not more than one.  Cue Tressel-stalgia at the first sign of trouble.    

Predicted avg. wins over next 3-5 years: 10

As a 2012 model car: Ferrari FF.  This new model is slick, bold, fast and it immediately catches your eye, but you just don’t know how long it’s going to last.  And you know it’s a question of when, not if, it breaks down on you.

10. Penn State

Coach: Bill O’Brien

2011 Season Grade: F

2012 Recruiting Grade: F

Outlook: How does a 9-win season end up with an F?  When a grand jury reveals that your former-DC was allegedly molesting children on your campus and, when confronted with this information, your once-legendary coach passes the buck to two guys who allegedly covered it up and let the guy keep coming to campus, resulting in 3 indictments and a summary termination of services for said ex-legend.  Add in Paterno’s death, the unexpected and uninspiring hire of NFL OC Bill O’Brien to replace him and Urban Meyer’s vampire-like feast on the blood of the schools’ 2012 recruiting class, and it’s clear that the Sandusky bomb has reduced Penn State to an irradiated, mutant-filled post-apocalyptic nightmare.  That isn’t to say O’Brien can’t turn things around, but if people thought Lloyd Carr left a mess for Rich Rodriguez, then Penn State redefines the parameters of what a mess can be.  And Rodriguez went in with a lot of experience running college programs.  Thankfully for Happy Valley, the rich recruiting fields of Central Pennsylvania act as a plucky postal service for the survivors, and some meager existence is eked out. 

Predicted avg. wins over next 3-5 years: 6

As a 2012 model car: Lincoln MKT.  At one point, this was a respected luxury brand (at least in some corners).  Now you can plausibly ask if it will still be with us 2 years from now.   Oh, and this one's a minivan.  

11. Purdue

Coach: Danny Hope

2011 Season Grade: D+

2012 Recruiting Grade: C-

Outlook: Danny Hope just got a contract extension, though he’s done little to prove he deserved it.  I guess I could say that he isn’t terrible, and it would be true, but he’s no Joe Tiller either.  I don’t imagine Purdue will change much in the next few years. 

Predicted avg. wins over next 3-5 years: 5

As a 2012 model car: Kia Forte.  Barely serviceable, thoroughly uninspiring, and already mostly forgotten. 

12. Wisconsin

Coach: Bret Bielema

2011 Season Grade: A-

2012 Recruiting Grade: B+

Outlook: Bielema’s quietly taken the nest egg Barry Alvarez left him and turned Wisconsin into the class of the Big 10.  Of course, a lot of this success stems from the offense, and it isn’t clear how much losing Chryst and Wilson will hurt the Badgers.  Expect a lot of Monte Ball, and whoever the next Monte Ball is, as well as some regression to the mean as the coordinators take their services elsewhere and the competition for the big guys heats up on the recruiting trail. 

Predicted avg. wins over next 3-5 years: 9

As a 2012 model car: Dodge Charger SRT8.  Another Big 10 muscle car, only this one’s bigger and uglier than the others.  Seats four, though, so it’s kinda practical.