Going For Two in OT
November 10th, 2010 at 10:54 AM ^
No point in faking the kick there, as Nebraska has to be expecting the fake. If there's one place where conventional wisdom suggests going for two, it's as an underdog thinking one play for the win is likely to be your best opportunity. Send out the offense and put in a passer who isn't going to float a wounded duck into the wind.
November 10th, 2010 at 1:34 PM ^
I don't think we are given enough data to make the determination.
A few comments with regard to the .5225 win percentage for the team that goes second starting with the third OT:
1) How many observations is that based upon?
2) What is the win percentage of the home team starting with third OT? And how does that breakdown when split into those that have the ball first and those that have the ball second?
3) What is the win percentage of the Vegas favorite starting with third OT? And how does that breakdown when split into those that have the ball first and those that have the ball second?
4) How does #3 above breakdown when one one team is favored by more than 7 points, 10 points, 14 points etc.
Obviously as the data is evaluated more granularly, there will be fewer observations which will reduce the statistical significance of any outcome differentials.
Further, as pointed out by other commenters, the 2point conversion data is from the NFL.
November 10th, 2010 at 3:37 PM ^
It isn't an reasonable theory. However in this case I preferred going for the one and trying to stop them from getting a TD next time around - I had little doubt we could score another TD. At that pojnt I thought our D had a better chance of making a stop than IL had of stopping us, so play for the 3rd OT.
November 10th, 2010 at 3:52 PM ^
After the TD in the second overtime, I immediately turned to my buddy and said the exact same thing. We should go for two right here, right now. My reasoning is slightly different than your friends. When I was obviously questioned about my reasoning, I replied that the turnover ratio was undoubtedly against us... and the turnover bug was going to bite sooner or later. Tate Forcier had almost thrown an interception on the play we scored a touchdown on. If we continue to go back and forth, who is most likely to turn the ball over? With the turnover ration at 5-1, the answer was undeniably Michigan. In the college overtime system, with a kicker as good as Illinois', a turnover in OT is an automatic loss. I wholeheartedly believe that if this game went into another overtime, we would have lost due to a fumble or an interception. Tate Forcier is not known for being particularly cautious with the ball.
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