I started to post this under the forum topic scholarship-numbers-and-number-commits but I thought it might be better to make it more permanent. 

Here, to the best of my knowledge, is our current roster breakdown.  I've divided the spreadsheet into four categories, Confirmed Roster, Fifth Years, Recruits, and Questions.  Confirmed Roster are players we are fairly certain will be receiving a scholarship next year.  Fifth Years still have eligibility and may or may not be offered a scholarship next year.  Recruits are current verbal commits.  Questions are players that may or may not count against scholarships next year.

Confirmed Roster	Fifth Years	Recruits	Questions
QB:	QB:	QB:	QB:
Tate-So	Sheridan-5th	Jones
Denard-So	Cone-5th	Gardner
RB:	RB:	RB:	RB:
Shaw-Jr		White	Moundros-Sr*
Smith-So		Hopkins
Cox-So*
Toussaint-Fr*
WR:	WR:	WR:	WR:
Stonum-Jr		Miller
Hemmingway-Jr*		Williamson
Stokes-So		Jackson
Gordon-Fr*		J Robinson
Slot:	Slot:	Slot:	Slot:
Odoms-Jr		Drake	Grady-Jr*
Roundtree-So*		Dileo
T. Robinson-So*
Gallon-Fr*
TE:	TE:	TE:	TE:
Webb-Sr
Koger-Jr
Moore-So*
OL:	OL:	OL:	OL:
Molk-Jr*	Schilling-5th	Pace	Morales-So*
Huyge-Jr*	Dorrestein-5th
Khoury-So*	Ferrera-5th
Barnum-So*
Omameh-So*
Mealer-So*
Schofield-Fr*
Washington-Fr*
Lewan-Fr*
DT:	DT:	DT:	DT:
Sagasse-Sr	Banks-5th	Talbott
Martin-Jr		Ash
Campbell-So
DE:	DE:	DE:	DE:
Van Bergen-Jr*	Patterson-5th	Paskorz
LaLota-Fr*
Quick:	Quick:	Quick:	Quick:
Herron-Jr*		Wilkins
Watson-Jr*
Roh-So
LB:	LB:	LB:	LB:
Fitz-Jr	Ezeh-5th	Kinard	Leach-Jr*
Demens-So	Mouton-5th		B Smith-So*
Hawthorne-So
M Jones-So
Bell-Fr*
CB:	CB:	CB:	CB:
Rogers-Sr		Avery	Warren-Sr
Woolfolk-Sr		Talbott	Cissoko-Jr
T Jones-So		Christian
Floyd-So*		Witty
Turner-Fr*
FS:	FS:	FS:	FS:
Williams-Jr*		Vinopal	Kovacs-So*
T Gordon-Fr*
SS:	SS:	SS:	SS:
Vlad-So		C.Johnson
		M Robinson
Sp Teams:	Sp Teams:	Sp Teams:	Sp Teams:
Gibbons-Fr*	Wright-5th	Hagerup
Total – 48	Total – 10	Total – 24	Total – 8
* = Redshirt

Data Source: mgoblue.com&michigan.scout.com

As you can see, we have 48 confirmed players using scholarships next year, ten players with remaining eligibility who may receive scholarships next year, and eight players, under the Questions category, who could potentially receive scholarships next season.  These three categories total 66 potential scholarship players.  Subtracting 66 from the 85 scholarship max leaves 19 scholarships for recruits.  Since we have already gotten commits from 24 players and we may add four more before we're done, we would need to find up to nine scholarships.  That means that nine players on the Fifth Year list or the Questions list may not receive scholarships next season.

Let's review the eighteen players at risk of not receiving scholarships next year to identify the most likely candidates. 

Among the eighteen, five are walkons (Moundros, Grady, Morales, Leach, and Kovacs); since walkons rarely get scholarships, most of these players probably assume they won't get one next year.  However, it has been mentioned several places that Coach Rodriguez has indicated that Kovacs will receive a scholarship if one is available (if anyone has anything more concrete than that please post it in the comments).  We can assume that we have four scholarships from this group for sure and possibly five, which brings us up to 23 or 24 openings.

The next group to consider would be the remaining Question players (Smith, Warren,&Cissoko).  Of the three, Cissoko's scholarship is the only one we are certain is available since he was removed from the team and is unlikely to be reinstated until the start of next year, if at all.  The coaches will know then if there's a spot for him. As of now, Brandon Smith remains on the team, but may confirm his intentions to leave before signing day, thus opening another slot.  I doubt the staff would remove Warren's scholarship until they are certain he won't return, so as long as he doesn't contact an agent his scholarship is off limits.  That means this group provides one for sure and possibly two scholarships, which brings our openings to 24 or 26.

The final variable group is the Fifth Years.  There are ten players in this group that still have eligibility.  I know Cone was honored at the Football Bust, so he is gone.  Beyond that I'm not sure who has been invited back.  Schilling will undoubtedly return but after that I'm not sure.  I assume some of these players won't know if they will have scholarships until signing day.  If anyone has any insight post it in the comments.  With Cone's departure it gives us 25 or 27.

It looks like, depending on how many fifth years are invited back, we can make room for the 28 recruits we are all counting on.  Assuming we get them all, what does that mean for next year's class size?

It looks like we will have four true seniors next year (five if Warren comes back), the remaining fifth year slots from this year (i.e. Schilling et al.), and seven redshirt juniors with a fifth year of eligibilty remaining next year.  The math is difficult until we know the futures of this year's fifth years, the Smith, Warren, and Cissoko plans, and any surprise player departures, but I would guess that we will have around 16 slots for next season.

I hope this helps anyone who, like me, is trying to make it all make sense.  I will edit the post if anyone notices anything wrong or can provide more information.  Add your insights to the comments.