Football Roster Breakdown
Here, to the best of my knowledge, is our current roster breakdown. I've divided the spreadsheet into four categories, Confirmed Roster, Fifth Years, Recruits, and Questions. Confirmed Roster are players we are fairly certain will be receiving a scholarship next year. Fifth Years still have eligibility and may or may not be offered a scholarship next year. Recruits are current verbal commits. Questions are players that may or may not count against scholarships next year.
|Confirmed Roster||Fifth Years||Recruits||Questions|
|Sp Teams:||Sp Teams:||Sp Teams:||Sp Teams:|
|Total – 48||Total – 10||Total – 24||Total – 8|
|* = Redshirt|
As you can see, we have 48 confirmed players using scholarships next year, ten players with remaining eligibility who may receive scholarships next year, and eight players, under the Questions category, who could potentially receive scholarships next season. These three categories total 66 potential scholarship players. Subtracting 66 from the 85 scholarship max leaves 19 scholarships for recruits. Since we have already gotten commits from 24 players and we may add four more before we're done, we would need to find up to nine scholarships. That means that nine players on the Fifth Year list or the Questions list may not receive scholarships next season.
Let's review the eighteen players at risk of not receiving scholarships next year to identify the most likely candidates.
Among the eighteen, five are walkons (Moundros, Grady, Morales, Leach, and Kovacs); since walkons rarely get scholarships, most of these players probably assume they won't get one next year. However, it has been mentioned several places that Coach Rodriguez has indicated that Kovacs will receive a scholarship if one is available (if anyone has anything more concrete than that please post it in the comments). We can assume that we have four scholarships from this group for sure and possibly five, which brings us up to 23 or 24 openings.
The next group to consider would be the remaining Question players (Smith, Warren,&Cissoko). Of the three, Cissoko's scholarship is the only one we are certain is available since he was removed from the team and is unlikely to be reinstated until the start of next year, if at all. The coaches will know then if there's a spot for him. As of now, Brandon Smith remains on the team, but may confirm his intentions to leave before signing day, thus opening another slot. I doubt the staff would remove Warren's scholarship until they are certain he won't return, so as long as he doesn't contact an agent his scholarship is off limits. That means this group provides one for sure and possibly two scholarships, which brings our openings to 24 or 26.
The final variable group is the Fifth Years. There are ten players in this group that still have eligibility. I know Cone was honored at the Football Bust, so he is gone. Beyond that I'm not sure who has been invited back. Schilling will undoubtedly return but after that I'm not sure. I assume some of these players won't know if they will have scholarships until signing day. If anyone has any insight post it in the comments. With Cone's departure it gives us 25 or 27.
It looks like, depending on how many fifth years are invited back, we can make room for the 28 recruits we are all counting on. Assuming we get them all, what does that mean for next year's class size?
It looks like we will have four true seniors next year (five if Warren comes back), the remaining fifth year slots from this year (i.e. Schilling et al.), and seven redshirt juniors with a fifth year of eligibilty remaining next year. The math is difficult until we know the futures of this year's fifth years, the Smith, Warren, and Cissoko plans, and any surprise player departures, but I would guess that we will have around 16 slots for next season.
I hope this helps anyone who, like me, is trying to make it all make sense. I will edit the post if anyone notices anything wrong or can provide more information. Add your insights to the comments.
What about early entry (EE) recruits this year? Per another thread on the board, these recruits may count as 2009 entries, thus freeing up more places for 2010.
Is this true or not?
It has been confirmed that you can count EE to the previous season. The issue this post tries to address is the 85 max issue.
would only be able to move 4 EEs max to last year's class.
there were a couple of EE's as well - Forcier and Campbell come to mind. Not sure how the accounting goes, but I would guess every year they are backdating the players that come in to maximize potential future flexibility.
If 21 were signed last year, and 2-4 of those were EE's and counted against 2008, that would allow a number of recruits this year to be EE's and counted against 2009.
I have also heard there is a hard 28 cap - from the Big Ten? Not sure.
I think Adam Patterson is gone too he was behind a walk-on all year
Wright also may not be awarded a 5th year since most coaches only want 1 scholarship kicker at a time
Why are Kovacs and Moundros listed as questionable returnees but not Cone or Patterson?
Cone and Patterson are both fifth year players. I put all of the fifth years in one category. I assume fifth year players by definition are question marks when it comes to scholarships.
Kovacs and Moundros are questionable to get scholarships.
Ouch. I still can not believe how thin the numbers became in the secondary these past two years. Good post. I think Moundros will be back. He will take over Kev. Grady's FB role.
5th year guys:
Wright will surely be let go and perhaps Sheridan will stay on as a walk-on; nice to have his presence and minimal depth, but not worth a scholarship at this point. Patterson will be the odd man out if his scholly is needed, but even though he is a major bust we may keep him for depth and in the vain hope that we will get one good year from all of that potential.
Next Season: Way too early to put a firm number on it but highly unlikely that we will take over 20.
As I have stated before, I think that our running back depth is questionable so perhaps the three month experiment of Teric Jones at CB will come to an end and he will return to running back. Also see Drake as strictly a running back; he is incredibly explosive and.......... look at all of those slot guys.
Speaking of the profusion of slots, I see Roundtree moving outside unless we start using double slot formations.
Final Flier: Look for Obi to back up Roh at Deathbacker this year; time to work Fitz and Demens into the ILB rotation with the hopefully improved Mouton.
Thanks again for the helpful post.
I am curious why you think "Wright will surely be let go..." Is that the common wisdom? I hadn't thought so...
on someone who only kicks off? Gibbons has a very strong leg and also punted in HS. Hagerup should be fine punting. That would leave a fifth year who has only been the kick off specialist possibly being without a scholarship spot since it would seem excessive to have three scholarship kickers given other needs.
I would also guess that Wright has graduated and with him never having been the PK he may opt to get on with his life as an NFL career would seem like a long shot.
What if something were to happen to Gibbons? Or Hagerup? Or both?
I fully realize, Bryan Wright might have some different ideas. I don't know the answers; just asking.
We've got two walkons on the roster now:
Seth Broekhuizen K FR Holland, Mich. (Holland Christian)
Scott Schrimscher PK RS SO Canton, Mich. (Catholic Central)
And I understand there's another walkon from Royal Oak coming this season. Remember Jason Olesnavage was a walkon and he was fine this past season. We don't need to use scholarships on three kickers.
Mind you, I never questioned the need for more "scholarhsip" kickers -- a few posts above, I noted the importance of kicking depth through walk-ons. And yeah, I do think that Olesnavage is a good guy to remember; who performed well in a disappointing year.
Good news we can fill so many holes with this recruiting class. I hope Rich Rod is more judicious in offering scholarships for next year, with the limited number of spots left.
Good job putting that together, umhero.
~I sure do wish we could have kept Brandon Smith around. We are still so thin with DB's of any real experience. I still don't understand that situation. A four-star recruit; a safety; three years of eligibility ahead of him.
~Are we in dire need of a great walk-on punter as a reserve? Or kicker, for that matter? Do Gibbons, or Wright, double as a reserve punter in a pinch? And (he whispered) are we pretty solid with B. Gibbons in a confirmed roster role?
Did you know that this website has this:
It's a lot of work, and it's very good work, OP, but I think you're re-treading a lot of ground that has already been plowed by this site.
I was trying to break it down by how many scholarships we can offer both this year and next. It has been brought up in dozens of posts over the last month, so I thought I would analyze it differently to answer that question.
I appreciate the Mgoblog version and I probably could have used that instead of the Scout.com version, but neither displayed the way I was trying to.
Fair enough. Good work umhero.
the work on your post. I felt a lot more comfortable after reading it regarding all the final recruits M is going after before signing day. If M can pick up a few more highly-rated recruits, this class could be a very good one.