First Down Plays

Of course, you've read the clinical breakdown I did in the "heroe and goats' forum thread, and those numbers dont tell a story any different that what you have said above. Therefore, I will sprinkle some of my own analysis into this.

I think its pretty obvious on first downs that its likely going to be a run to McGuffie. The defense's are keying on him and unless there is a lead blocker ahead of him from the backfield, these plays are going nowhere.

Michigan had been doing OK on first downs until the play calling got "cute" like that stupid option play to Sam that has not worked all season (dear Calvin, lose that page of the playbook) or when the coaches changed the formation (like just Sam in the backfield.....or Shaw as lead blocker, as two examples).

Again, things were working with Moundros and/or Minor serving as a lead blocker for Sam (or moundros blocking for minor). When Michigan went away from not having at least two of those three backs on the field and involved in the play, the running game went nowhere.

I am becoming convinved that the starting backfield should be Sam and Moundros. And let #44 flatten folks. That was there all day yesterday (in a couple different formations to boot) and then it disappeared from the play calling repetoire.

it's about excution and blocking. Illinios brought more guys that we could block in an effort to sell out against the run because they've seen the film and know we have trouble excuting the simpliest of pass plays. We had no deep threat and played up on the line the whole game. They used a combo of safeties and LBs on the slot in what looked like a 2 man underneath zone; again no deep threat as we haven't shown we can execute the deep pass. McGuffie has been good for a freshman, but I see that hesitation that keeps him from hitting the crease. A couple of times there was a small crease that closed before he got to it, which is more a testament to the poor excution on the blocking.

The defense seemed confused all day in the secondary. Unlike a lof of folks, I am not down on Brown. I would like the coaches to simplify his reads so that he's playing more in coverage than supporting the run. Let the SS play the run more and let the FS help Warren who appeared hobbled fpor most of the game. There were a lot of reasons we looked so pourus yesterday and I think it all goes to execution.

On a positive note, the return game turned a major corner yesterday in their blocking. They actually set up a wedge and managed to split the defenders on most of the returns. I think Odoms was told to run it up the middle after his first two returns to the outside. I think the coaches saw the middle get soft after the first couple returns.

One thing about Odoms that is expected of a freshman, but maybe not evident to some is his route running is sorely lacking. Threet has enough trouble making accurate passes, but he needs to be helped out by the receivers. Matthews made a bunch of jump ball catches that saved some drives. If you watch Threet's throwing motion, he drops his elbow and "pushes" the ball which is why they tend to sail on him. Even when he tries to zip the ball into a spot, he drops that elbow and uses a 3/4 delivery versus coming over the top, which kills accuracy. I need to watch the game a little more to pick up the all of the breakdowns, but I still haven't seen the staff get to predictable in their playcalling. I would think that the coaches must be getting really frustrated because the plays are there, but the guys are just a little bit off. I think if they keep practicing and getting reps, that wll tighten up. The one worry I have is that the opposition will continue to pressure us with no fear of reprisal. I think they need to work out some quick passes out of the two back look that takes advantage of the soft zone and combo coverage..crossing routes, the wheel route, and get the tight end out into the shallow flat to stretch out the middle of the field. Just my opinion.

....in your post there. We're talking first down play calling here and the overall run/pass ratio. To that end, I disagree that you cant be critical of play calling here.

Things were working in the looks where Sam carried and followed Moundros blocking....it worked even with Minor running...and this is for the running game on all downs, not just first. It had some big plays and provided enough efficiency that play fakes actually worked opening up passing lanes for Threet.

Right now running plays not out of those sets aren't working, so when they get called from the sideline, you can indeed question it.

Why does he keep doing that option play as an example....they've been flirting with disaster on that play all season and not gaining a thing out of it. When the team is moving the chains with Moundros blocking and setting a physical tone, why do you then go with running sets that dont involve that look.

I thought the offense played well in spots. For the first time all season, it did not put the defense up against the wall with turnovers. It was on the verge on a season high output and at 31-20, I actually had some confidence if the D could get a stop that they could march down the field.

Certain plays and looks are working. There are plenty that are not, have not all season and at this point probably wont work all season. I question why the coaches continue with the latter and not modify gameplans geared towards the former.

However, play calling did not doom us yesterday. Nope it was constant breakdowns on the defensive side of the ball that lead to way too many big plays.

There is a very easy solution to our first down woes. Bench McGuffie. Yes, he can break off for a long run because of his speed, but he's unbelievably weak and cannot break off any initial tackle. Even with a solid O-Line, he's still vulnerable to DL/DE/LB who are blocked but who get an arm or a shoulder out there to disrupt the RB. Normally, a RB would just run through that, but McGuffie GOES DOWN ON ANY INITIAL CONTACT. This has been a trend the entire year save the porous Notre Dame defensive line.
We can't keep losing yardage on first down. The O-Line is weak in the interior right now and even if they were solid I still would bench McGuffie and make him a change of down back. His speed in neutralized by all of the negative first down plays that have been a staple of this offense. We simply do not have the QB or O-Line to compensate for that, nor would we ever have the ability to offset McGuffie's weakness.
Shaw has a nice combination of speed and power. He hasn't played and I think it may be due to injury or some other technique problem. For now, I would insert Shaw to give him confidence. Make him the guy who gets the most carries. But Minor should get the INITIAL carries. Someone has to soften up the defense and Minor is a bruiser who can give you tough yards at the start of the game and establish a rhythm. Then you bring Shaw in and use his superior explosiveness. The backfield should consist of Shaw and Minor. This finally happened yesterday when RR finally understood McGuffie wasn't working out. Shaw and Minor played very well together and they were driving but Shaw fumbled. Perhaps his fumble was due to the fact that he hadn't been in the game and he was still cold. Whatever is the case, McGuffie needs to be benched.

I think, with the collection of guys that Michigan fields to play every Saturday. That running the ball is a no longer a viable option. Sorry. But from now on, Michigan might as well spot the opposing team 21 points. And then play the rest of the game as if it were way down. They seem to play better that way. There's translation between scheme and execution. And why is this? Because Michigan, the players, know pound for pound this year they cannot hang as Michigan teams of old. You know when you are overmatched and rebuilding. Offensively this is that year. So the guys play better when it's a scramble. You might as well play that way always this year.

If I'm not mistaken, Threet has zero interceptions so far this year. I think his decision-making has been excellent this year. Sometimes his arm/mechanics fail him and the ball sails wildly, but he usually seems to pick the right receiver on pass plays and when he keeps the ball on the read option, it's usually the right decision.