Facing Winners

Submitted by Bielfeldt's Calves on

Each week I put together a unofficial blog poll entry and as an analysis piece I like to look at each team's record against winning and losing FBS teams. I thought it would be interesting to take those records at a conference level. I also found out something interesting about Michigan's schedule when compared nationally. First conferences

Avg# FBS Winning Teams Faced
Big 10 7.09
Big 12 6.75
ACC 6.41
Big East 6.12
Independent 6
SEC 5.75
MWC 5.66
MAC 5.15
WAC 4.87
Pac10 4.7
CUSA 4.66
Sun Belt 3.44

Hey, so ah, PAC-10 way to get out there and get after it. Oregon and Stanford combined have only faced 7 winning teams (two of which are each other). The other piece of fun here is the mighty SEC falling below the ACC and Big East.

That's great but what did they conferences do against those schedules?

Win % vs FBS teams with winning recoreds

Win% vs FBS teams with winning record
Big 12 0.782
Big 10 0.695
SEC 0.642
Independent 0.636
Big East 0.58
ACC 0.509
Pac10 0.424
MWC 0.342
WAC 0.3
CUSA 0.272
MAC 0.155
Sun Belt 0.107

So here the SEC gains some respect back by posting a good overall winning percentage. But I think it's safe to say that Big 12 and Big 10 teams should fair pretty well come bowl time.

Now lets get closer to home since we've arguably established that the Big Ten is a pretty good conference.

Let's see how each Big Ten team did against FBS teams with winning records.

Team Games Wins Losses
Minnesota 9 2 7
Penn State 8 3 5
Michigan 8 3 5
Purdue 8 1 7
MSU 7 6 1
OSU 7 6 1
Illinois 7 3 4
Iowa 7 3 4
Indiana 7 0 7
Wisconsin 5 4 1
Northwestern 5 1 4

So we see that only three teams played as many or more winning teams than Michigan this season. And look as ol Wiscy down there toughing it out with 5 games against winning competition and yet there they go to the Rose Bowl. So Michigan played one of the toughest Big Ten schedules what about nationally.

Team Games Wins Losses Win%
Notre Dame 10 5 5 0.500
Minnesota 9 2 7 0.222
Mizzou 8 6 2 0.750
Ok. State 8 6 2 0.750
Texas A&M 8 5 3 0.625
Penn State 8 3 5 0.375
Michigan 8 3 5 0.375
Pittsburgh 8 3 5 0.375
East Carolina 8 3 5 0.375
Iowa State 8 2 6 0.250
Clemson 8 2 6 0.250
Purdue 8 1 7 0.125
Duke 8 1 7 0.125
Cincinnati 8 1 7 0.125

Of all 120 teams in the FBS 11 faced as many winning teams and only 2 faced more winning teams than Michigan. And of this group Michigan is tied for 5th for the best winning percentage. With only two teams posting winning records. And holy hell ND. I guess that's the price you pay for being independent.

And finally here is a look at teams with winning records against FBS teams Team Games

Team Games Wins Losses Win%
Auburn 5 5 0 1.000
TCU 5 5 0 1.000
Oregon 3 3 0 1.000
MSU 7 6 1 0.857
OSU 7 6 1 0.857
Wisconsin 5 4 1 0.800
VT 5 4 1 0.800
Boise State 5 4 1 0.800
Mizzou 8 6 2 0.750
Ok. State 8 6 2 0.750
Stanford 4 3 1 0.750
Nebraska 4 3 1 0.750
LSU 7 5 2 0.714
Oklahoma 7 5 2 0.714
Arkansas 6 4 2 0.667
South Carolina 6 4 2 0.667
NC State 6 4 2 0.667
Nevada 3 2 1 0.667
Northern Illinois 3 2 1 0.667
Texas A&M 8 5 3 0.625
UCONN 5 3 2 0.600
Hawaii 5 3 2 0.600
Utah 5 3 2 0.600
Alabama 7 4 3 0.571
FSU 7 4 3 0.571
Maryland 7 4 3 0.571

Anyway, take that for what it's worth. I just found it interesting at how small the number of teams that post winning records against teams that have winning records (26), that Big Ten looks a lot tougher than I thought and really that Michigan's schedule was as tough as it was. Carry on with the coaching debate.

Comments

Clarence Beeks

November 29th, 2010 at 5:52 PM ^

Awesome data.  Thanks for doing the work on this and sharing it.  Obviously it would be a lot easier to read if it were in chart format, but the point is still easily made (and I'm like you, I don't know how to make charts, either).  I definitely would not have expected the numbers to look like this.

formerlyanonymous

November 29th, 2010 at 6:23 PM ^

Playing a 9 game conference schedule has some "draw backs". While PAC10 teams schedule pretty well on the whole, they lose an opportunity to schedule a cup cake by playing one more conference game than the other big boys.

Goes from a weekend where 90% of the conference is going to win a game to a weekend where half the conference loses. With 4 teams sitting at 5 wins right now, that one shift is a looming problem for filling bowl agreements.

Irish

November 29th, 2010 at 7:18 PM ^

so your saying ND is a pretty good team then, to have gone up against 11 bowl eligible teams (under normal circumstances) in one season and come out on top of that schedule.  

good job, I agree

mi93

November 29th, 2010 at 8:44 PM ^

And 3 of the 5 losses came against three of the top 8 in the BCS (though still can't believe Sparty is one of them).

As far as the 'we should do well in bowl season' comment, keep in mind that for bowl season, we haven't been looking as good as we think we are because the Big Ten has been a little overmatched.  Consider the Texas Bowl which is Big Ten #6 against Big 12 #5.  Now add the fact that with 2 BCS teams, it'll be Big Ten #7.  And in the Insight it's is Big Ten #5 against Big 12 #4, which this year will be Big Ten #6.

MadtownMaize

November 29th, 2010 at 9:57 PM ^

as always, the Big 10 teams will play all of their bowl games basically as the road team. The Insight Bowl will be the closest to a neautral site the Big 10 will see this year. If we go to AZ, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE let us play Baylor so I might watch the game and be entertained at the same time. If we play Oklahoma State I may as well watch it in my dentists office while I get a root canal.