Expectations, Hysteria, and Calm Objectivity

I agree with you that Michigan is on pace for 6-6, which is within a game of where nearly everyone thought they'd be. What's distressing is the trend. The team's two best games were against Western Michigan and Notre Dame. Since then, nearly every game (not counting Delaware State) has been worse than the one before.

i agree lots of people got hyped up on TATE juice and now that the effects have worn off the predictions of 6-6 or hopeful 7-5 are still the most likely outcomes.

of course, i wouldn't be a true blue fan if i did not now have the paranoia that we did not just end up going downhill for the second half of illinois, but we have lost our sh-- for the season and slide to a disappointing 5-7.

..... legitimate questions abound. Here are a few:

Can TF recover his confidence and finish with a couple of wins behind an OL that lost an all-BT C, forcing three position changes and is getting the sh** kicked out of its tackles?

What can be done, if anything, to stop the bleeding caused by the LB and S units that may be the worst M has ever seen take the field.

If the answer to these questions is no/nothing, M will not win another game and go 5-7. I'll let you decide.

Which leads us to these questions:

Is the mix of GRob, Jay Hopson (LBs) and Tony Gibson (DBs) the best mix that RR can assemble to get the job done on defense?

..... or, maybe there is a largeer question than the defense alone. Given the current state of affairs in AA/at the U, can RR withstand the pressure he is going to be under if he does not make a bowl? Will his head explode? His personality may be his own worst enemy .... he looks uncomfortable these days.

You can't say that your prediction was based on intellect and objectivity while those of everyone who disagreed with you were based on emotion and subjectivity. That is an insult to everyone who didn't agree with you and sounds sort of Spartyish. Also, there are many things you couldn't have predicted, such as Forcier's injury or its effect on the team.

It looks like you will turn out to be right, but it isn't a guarantee yet. If it were me, I would probably wait until the end of the season to crow about it. This team could win the next three or lose the next three. You really never know.

As for Illinois, they are a garbage team according to their results this year, but they pulled "their Super Bowl" out of their ass against UM, just like MSU did. All it really proved was that UM is a young team and that it will sometimes bite them in the ass, even against a garbage but inspired team like Illinois.

Anyway, I predicted 9-3 and later amended it to 9-4 including a bowl game. If it somehow happens, rest assured that I won't make an "all about me" post about how I was more intelligent and objective than everyone else. Predictions are a crapshoot; it takes a lot of luck for any of them to be right. Don't confuse luck with intellect or superiority to the other posters on this forum.

....it's the method of getting to the record.

It's not so much that the team might finish 5-7 or 6-6, it's the fact that they aren't getting better. Losing to PSU is OK. Losing to PSU by 25 at home is not OK. Losing to Illinois on the road is OK (big, big stretch). Losing to Illinois by 25 is not OK.

BTW.....Michigan scored TD's on the opening drive in each other those games and never scored another one. They also didn't score any points in the second half of either game. I'm just saying.....

Michigan has played four common opponents from last year so far. Notre Dame, Illinois, MSU and PSU. They have scored fewer points than the 2008 Sheridan/Threet teams in three of those four games (ND being the exception).

I'm pretty sure that they won't put up 42+ against Purdue or 27+ against Wisky. It might be possible to score more than seven against OSU but I certainly wouldn't bet on it. It's entirely possible that Michigan will score fewer points in 2009 than it did in 2008 against five or six of the seven common opponents. That's not progress. Obviously every annual version of a team is different but this gives you a general look at the situation.

So yeah, we all saw 5-7 to 7-5 coming before the season. It's just the way that the team is getting there that is so hard to take. It certainly doesn't instill confidence that 2010 will be much better. I think that's all fans are looking for.....some reason to be optimistic about the future.

The problem is they gave us a glimmer of hope with the way they started. Obviously, everyone adjusted their expectations based on the start of the season. The reason people are so frustrated is that this has happened in most of our games as well over the course of the season. MSU, Iowa and Illinois all seemed like games we would, could or should win at some point during the game, and then the hope disappears. Like the rest of the season, it would be easier to swallow if we just played bad the whole game rather than choking at the end. Similarly, had we started off 3-3 rather than 4-2, our current state would be easier to swallow.

Put the 6-6 prediction in context. Most predicted 6-6 or 7-5 on the way to a huge improvement next year, like 9-3 or 10-2. I think what is upsetting is that while this year's team is better than last year's, the outlook for the 2010 team, based on the team's recent regression, is not as rosy as we had hoped/thought prior to this year. We are starting to see just how bad the defense is and the realization it won't be that much better in 2010 is scary. If 6-6 isn't a stepping stone for next year but instead a preview, that is terrifying.

My thinking going into the season (and a post I got mildly neg-banged for) was that I had NO IDEA how we'd finish and said 6 +/- 3 wins.

My point at the time was that we would have (for Michigan fans) unprecedented volatility. There would be games we should have lost that we won and games that we should have won that we lost.

Now here we are. Nobody knows what will happen. Bowl eligibility hangs in the balance at this point. Then again, we could win all three left.

I don't think starting out 4-0 was any more of a "trend" than getting several heads in a row if you flip a coin 12 times. This is a team that has been, and will be able to win only if they can dance on a knife's edge for 60 minutes in a row.

Remember, for 33 minutes against Illinois, we didn't look great, but it looked like we had things well in hand. Kind of like things were OK for 22 minutes against PSU. We weren't winning, but we hadn't yet lost the game for good.

The success of this season will, I think, ultiamtely be judged by whether or not the team can get over this hump and find a way to win a game (or two or three) down the stretch.

the potential this team has. The reality has unfortunately taught all of us that predicting results with 80% of a football team being underclassmen is highly risky at best.

I went from 7-5 in July to 8-4 in August to 9-3 in Sept. I obviously drank too much of the spiked kool-aid, but now I have awoken with the hangover that is the reality of this ridiculously young team with suitable depth.

The time and pain it takes to replenish what left, failed, or quit all together is a job that takes the patience of Job.

If given the time, this will all work itself out. The growing pains will be extremely painful. The next three weeks are like playing chicken against someone you know nothing about. All you can do is hold on and hope it turns out OK.

I absolutely agree with your 6-6 or 7-5 before the season started, and that people are being too emotional now, because we have a fair shot to end up where we were going to end up generally.

However, there is one thing that I find a little dissapointing, though, and of course this will depend on the Purdue game as much as Illinois- if we had beaten Illinois and Purdue, then we could say we took a huge step forward and beaten all the teams we should have beaten, plus maybe one extra, and lost to all the teams better than us, and I would have felt pretty ok about things. It would have been really nice to be absolutely comfortable that we had progressed from last year's disaster to being a real team again. An average or below average big ten team, granted, but a real big ten team.

I think part of the reason people are so worked up is that after Illinois they are afraid that no such progress is being made. Illinois is really bad, and has been pounded by pretty much everyone- so I think the fear is that we just aren't getting any better. Is it too early to tell? Of course. Is it just one game? Of course. But, man, it was a stinker.

So, I'm not saying that's right necessarily, or that the freak out crowd is right, but at this point it's more than simply whether we hit the 6-6 target or go -1 and go 5-7 or whatever. If we lose to Purdue, and go 5-7, then depending on manner of said loss, I think you could argue- with some fairness- that we really haven't made much progress this year. Maybe 5-7 would be more preogress than it seems, because we didn't lose to a MAC team, but only 1 big ten win would kinda suck.

Now, I'm not ready to fire up the torches or anything extreme like that, but like Brian said yesterday, there is really legitimate concern at this point.

It feels like every game this year is the most important, but once again Purdue will tell us a lot. If we can beat Purdue, then maybe we did just suck against Illinois and oh, well, shake it off and whatever. But if we lose to Purdue then I think there's a real possibility that something larger is wrong with the team that goes beyond youth or game mistakes.

There is a real difference between reactionary whackos and a legitimate cause for concern, and right now I think there is legitimate cause for concern.

RR is not panicking right now.

why isn't RR panicking?

That worries me.

5-7 will be difficult to take, but there have already been improvements on several fronts this year. The offense is improved; the Notre Dame game was an instant classic, and a signature victory; Michigan has put away athletically inferior opponents (EMU, WMU, DSU), when they could not do it last year.

Rodriguez has had two solid recruiting classes, and the team is loaded with freshman and sophomores who are going to contribute.

Leaving aside on-field performance, Rodriguez's task will be to bring in another good class in the spring, and keep the kids we have. Talented defections in the last two years have hurt, and have played a large role in the thinning of the talent pool. In the grand scheme of things, this task is far more important than whatever happens in the next few weeks.

We looked like shit. But that is the only game where we have "gotten worse". PSU is a good team. If we collapse and look lost the next three games, then I'll panic.

I pretty much agree with those who are disappointed with the trends more than the results. I have some concerns as a Richrod supporter noticing some worrying patterns. Keep in mind these are obviously opinions and that I hope the ship gets righted as we move into the unknown.
My first concern is that Michigan has become predictable based on how teams have played us recently. I know we've done a little differently here and there, but I get the feeling that the opposition knows what's coming for the most part.
Speaking of adjustments, it seems as if when the games are moving on we become more inept. Our opponents adjust there game plans and sometimes it seems as if we have no answer.
There could be reasonable explanations for all of this, and in the long run we'll probably be fine, but I am now of the opinion that our coaches need certain types of players to succeed rather than adjusting the system a bit to fit the players. That comment is not a spread vs. pro style argument, it's a comment about the specificity of the offense we run.

Not only are we playing better teams but teams now have more film to scout, which makes it tougher as the season progresses. It doesn't necessarily follow that we will do better for having played more games. The inexperience is showing. Let's just win the damn Purdue game.

Speaking of Calm Objectivity, if you haven't had the chance to listen to Brian when he is on WTKA, you really need to find the time to do so. Find them (www.wtka.com) online and listen to the podcasts. Brian has been fending off the tinfoil hat folks, the conspiracy theorists, and the RR bashers with such calm and grace it is amazing.
I have never met Brian and I wouldn't recognize him if I were standing next to him on the street, but the Wolverine faithful need a large dose of his calming, rational voice. I'm sure he's brought some folks down from the ledges. Thanks, man.

Win it, and we're in (very, very likely).

That's important.

I'm not ruling out winning @Wiscy or vs tOSU, but let's take care of business this week.

When do we as Michigan fans have to argue with each other about what blowout is worse? The beat downs in 08 or the same team beating us down in 09?

All is forgiving if RR can pull the team together and beat OSU. Another loss to them and we are in serious trouble!

I agree with the idea that ~6-6 was a reasonable expectation for this year.

Why does the potential of 5-7 feel so bad?

Because of the schedule (three wins from directional schools and I-AA) combined with the ugly Illinois loss, we now have to consider the possibility that we could be the WORST team in the conference this year.

We have been outscored by 11 ppg in conference play (11th in the BT) and are currently in last place - with three games left to play against teams much better than Illinois.

Last year, we had two conference wins without playing Indiana, who finished in last place.

It is hard to consider a 1-7 in conference as significant progress.

I'm not bringing out pitchforks. RR needs time, and I think he will get at least four years to return to the 9-win norm of the past.

However, this most recent loss brings to life a scenario that most of us did not think was possible - WORST IN THE BIG TEN?

is an improvement over last year but a few things that bother me are: 1.) We would end up 2-6 in the Conference (same as last year), 2.) The beatings in the past two games were unexpected to the extent that the players are in the second half of the season, where we might have expected at least some improvement, 3.) I'm still upset about the Illinois loss. It should never have happened. I'm still a staunch supporter of RR but now I think he needs more time than I originally thought.

Calm, rational, intelligent and clearly written. Kudos to you, sir.

The 2nd part of the season has certainly been a disappointment but this is an entirely new system. There has been some improvement from year 1 to 2, and it'll hopefully only get better!