Expanding on the 247comp recruiting class calculator

Submitted by RandomWolverine on

First (maybe only) diary, but why not. I was curious.

*** Also, updated with the Eubanks news...***

So... I've been fiddling around with excel based on the available 247 composite data out there. We have a number of excellent targets and the 2016 class is far from closed. If attrition, gray-shirts, and expectations fall as expected, we could take up to 8 more recruits to get to the total of 30 expected in this class. To give credit, this info is all available on the class calculator at 247sports.com:

http://michigan.247sports.com/Season/2016-Football/Commits/Preview

As I understand, the following are still viable targets to land in Michigan (with corresponding 247compositive score)*:

Gary 1.0000
Asiasi 0.9628
Tagaloa 0.9472
Murphy 0.9065
Camp 0.9048
Simmons 0.8913
Mathis 0.8901
Eubanks 0.8843
Pie Young 0.8789
Viramontes 0.8765
Jones 0.8745
Dublanko 0.8696
Allen 0.8656
Nate Johnson 0.8618
Donald Stewart 0.8568
Nordin 0.8565
Dytarious Johnson 0.8376

*We may be out for those in italics, really out of it is this.

I may have left off an option or two, but these should blanket the majority of our possibilities. I did leave off Elliott, I think he gone. Sad. He dominated at the All-Star game. I can't remember which, but I think I heard one of Metellus or Gil are a known (happy) gray-shirt ... so they were left off. 

So, where does that leave us.  Well, I made a cumulative chart using the information on the 247 class calculator. My goal was not to see our cumulative score. Others brighter than me have already noted we are unlikely to clear 300 points (even with Rashan Gary), so we aren't necessarily breaking any records here.  However, what is our average recruit composite ranking?  This isn't available on the calculator and is fun to mess around with.

I can't upload the excel sheet (or I would), but here is the chart with my best-case-scenario class inserted (bold = EE):

Gary 1.0000
Bredeson 0.9790
Peters 0.9674
Long 0.9658
Asiasi 0.9628
Onwenu 0.9549
Walker 0.9498
Tagaloa 0.9472
Crawford 0.9426
Fuller 0.9377
Hill 0.9359
Mitchell 0.9265
Hamilton 0.9087
Murphy 0.9065
Hawkins 0.8997
Ron Johnson 0.8987
Kemp 0.8954
Bush 0.8921
Evans 0.8911
Eubanks 0.8843
Hudson 0.8819
McDoom 0.8794
Mbem-Bosse 0.8702
Allen 0.8656
Nordin 0.8565
Uche 0.8559
Spanellis 0.8543
Davis 0.8543
McKeon 0.8494
Dwumfour 0.8454
Gil 0.8429

***Allen instead of Eubanks:***

Total avg 90.72533
Adj (top 20) 93.2185
Adj (top 24) 92.1475
Adj (top 26) 91.63692

***EUBANKS In, Allen out:***

Total avg 90.78767
Adj (top 20) 93.2305
Adj (top 24) 92.22542
Adj (top 26) 91.70885

First off... that is a lot of names.

Secondly, there are some interesting things in there. For instance, I adjusted the rankings to see how our average varies depending on the total class size (ie just keeping the top 20, 24 etc).  This is a simple average feature on excel (cell = sum(b1:b20)*100)

Alabama (the pinnacle of mathematical recruiting prowess), had 24 total recruits in the 2015 class with an average of  93.64... so we'd be close, but no cigar.  Ohio, on the other hand, finished with the #7 ranked composite class with 26 total recruits and an average rating of 90.19 ... so yeah, we'd be competitive.

Below is the trend (top = with Allen, bottom with Eubanks). Unfortunately, did not have time to chart this against past teams or opponents. I'll leave that to the professionals after all is said and done.

Aside from that, this is just speculation. Just fun with charts a la Ross Perot in election season.  The class may not reach this apex, but should still be excellent.  Go blue and best of luck to all the young men either way.

Despite being fun to always play the best-case-scenario, the below may be a more likely final class:

Gary 1
Bredeson 0.979
Peters 0.9674
Long 0.9658
Onwenu 0.9549
Walker 0.9498
Crawford 0.9426
Hill 0.9359
Mitchell 0.9265
Hamilton 0.9087
Murphy 0.9065
Hawkins 0.8997
Ron Johnson 0.8987
Kemp 0.8954
Bush 0.8921
Evans 0.8911
Hudson 0.8819
McDoom 0.8794
Mbem-Bosse 0.8702
Allen 0.8656
Nate Johnson 0.8618
Nordin 0.8565
Uche 0.8559
Spanellis 0.8543
Davis 0.8543
McKeon 0.8494
Dwumfour 0.8454
Gil 0.8429
Dytarious Johnson  0.8376
Donald Stewart 0.8568
Total avg 89.75367
Adj (top 20) 92.056
Adj (top 24) 90.99875
Adj (top 26) 90.55154

 

Still beating 2015 Ohio in a National Championship year. I'll happily take that, plus a slight bump expected from the Eubanks addition. This doesn't mean we'll win actual football games, but it does mean we'll be competing from a talent standpoint. That's an advantage that Harbaugh didn't have at Stanford.  

This is a good trend. Our top 20 is talented on an elite level and the next ten all have potential to be strong contributors at the next level. The comparison to Bama / OSU are more to say Michigan recruiting is strong like bull.

I'm aware this isn't anything earth shattering. But, it was informative and aided in my chronic procrastination.

 

Comments

RoadKill

January 29th, 2016 at 3:20 PM ^

Probably skewed the calculations a good bit. You listed a few guys on a couple of charts that are most likely not goint to land in this class. Realistically, I look for UM to finish somewhere around a healthy #5 - #6 in recruiting class. That's a damn sight better than last year, so exaggerations really aren't needed at this point.

DualThreat

January 28th, 2016 at 3:05 PM ^

What's funny is during the whole Rashad Weaver situation I almost posted this quote in defense of Harbaugh's recruiting tactics:

"You're it until you're dead or I find somebody better."

... meaning of course that Harbaugh has every right to accept a commit but then withdraw it if he finds somebody better.

And there you go posting a pic of Rico.  :-)

Odd how things like that happen.

Farnn

January 28th, 2016 at 11:37 PM ^

I like this as a way to more evenly compare recruiting classes.  Both adding up stars and taking the mean have problems that don't allow them to show the whole picture.  But showing avg of top 20 and top 25 is a nice way to show quality while accounting for quantity.

RoadKill

January 29th, 2016 at 3:31 PM ^

and the average start ratings are similar between the two, but it appears that OSU's class holds alot of explosive talent. I watched a little bit of tape on Austin Mack and the Victor kid - Both look like freakishly good WR's, possibly to the point where (Mack in particular) may have warranted a 5th star. The RB they stole from Wisconsin after Walker flipped to us looks really good. His change of direction and acceleration is off the charts. 

I'm pumped that Jim is going to land such a talented class. The only reservation I have is that the talent gap between us and the turds down south was glaring going into the offseason. OSU pulling in another talented class is doing us no favors, but I trust Harbaugh.... It's like those f*ckers are just reloading down there though. Oh, and it sounds as if they expect Weber to be 'the guy' in the backfield next year (shakes fist at sky).