Okay, so at first this diary started off as just another post at a different forum. But, one thing led to another, and here we are. The original post started off as a way to statistically justify why UMs defense was ranked #100 in the country. Without further ado, here we go.
These "rankings" are going to change. Especially when competition becomes tougher for the higher "ranked" defenses. For example, you've got a team like OSU sitting at #7 in total defense. They are a great defense, but their ranking is based on play against the #95 offense in Marshall, #65 offense in Miami, and #119 offense in Ohio. (rankings from ncaa.org)
On the flip side, UM faced the #57 offense in UConn, #24 in Notre Dame, and UMass, if placed in with the FBS schools, ranks #17 in the nation at 467 yds/game.
So, on average, UM faced the #33 offense in the nation, while OSU faced the #93 offense.
At this point, you're probably saying to yourself some of the same things I was questioning. Well, of course Notre Dame's offense is going to look good because they played against UMs defense. Well, just how much did UM effect those rankings?
ND would move from #24 to #48 without the UM game. UM held UMass under their season average. UMass would move from #17 to #15. UM held UConn to 50 less yards than their season average. They'd move from #57 to #41. So, UMs average offensive opponent taking out their UM game = #34. So, taking UM out of the equation pushed the rank of their opponents' offense from #33 to #34. Not much change. OSU was a different story.
Looking at OSU...
Marshall moves from #95 to #68
Miami has only played two games, but w/o OSU game move from #65 to #53
Ohio moves from #119 to #114.
OSU average opponents' offensive rank = #78. A move from #93.
So, when taking out the immediate matchup, UM was facing the #34 offense while OSU was facing the #78 offense. For comparison's sake, the #78 offense is Texas Tech at 345.67 yds/game. The #34 offense is Wake Forest at 430.67 yds/game.
How does this pertain to the rest of the schedule?
Based on the average of #34, UM will only face 3 more offenses better ranked than the average offense they've already played. (MSU, OSU, and Wisconsin at #28, #20, and #30, respectively)
Pushing the analysis further, UM is holding their opponents to 100.68% of their average offense.
UConn - 343/417 = 82.25%
ND - 535/409.5 = 130.64%
UMass - 439/481.5 = 91.17%
Total - 439/436 = 100.68%
OSU is holding their opponents offense to 68% of their average offense.
Marshall - 199/371 = 53.63%
Miami (YTM) - 352/405 = 86.91%
Ohio - 158/257 = 61.47%
Totals - 236.33/344.33 = 68.635%
If we take those numbers and look at the UM vs. OSU matchup at the end of the season, we get this in terms of expected offensive output:
UM: 350 yds
OSU: 463 yds
Of course, this same argument can be implemented to UMs offense vs. their opponents' defense. Without taking UM stats away from their opponents average, UM is still putting up 135.28% more yards than their opponent's defense normally gives up.
So, let's take away UMs impact on their opponents' defensive stats.
UConn - gave up 525 yds in their two other games. UM put up 473 yards on them. 473/262.5 = 180.19%
ND - gave up 799 yards to their two other opponents. UM put up 532 yards. 532/399.5 = 133.16%
UMass - gave up 544 yards to their other two opponents. UM put up 525 yards. 525/272 = 193.01%
So, to this point, UMs offense is putting up 163.81% more yards than their opponent typically gives up in a game.
In terms, of what this means vs. OSU... Ohio States defense is only giving up 236 yds/game. Based on UMs offensive output, they should put up 387 yards against OSU.
EDIT: So, I took all individual games and plugged them into Excel and came up with a pretty un-scientific predictor.
It is interesting to note that based on my predictor, UM will only be outgained by one team, OSU. I think these stats will really start to reign in the right picture once UM is two games deep in Big10 play.