Early 2009 Season Projection - Win Total

Submitted by Michiganguy19 on

It’s a topic that I am sure every Michigan fan has considered heading into this fall; after a disappointing 3-9 record last year, how many wins will the Wolverine’s have in 2009? Clearly there are an innumerable # of factors that can be considered and we are months from the opener verse Western Michigan. But it’s never too early to do a logical rundown of the 2009 schedule.

9/05 Western Michigan – last year’s Broncos enjoyed a good season in the MAC, finishing 6-2 in conference play and 9-4 overall. The results in the off season was that Western gave its coach Bill Cubit a new 5 year contract on the same day they lost to Rice 38-14 in the Texas Bowl. The team had great success at home (5-0), beat Illinois at Ford Field, and earned its second consecutive bowl appearance. Overall Western welcomes back 7 starters on Offense and 3 or 4 on Defense, and starting QB Tim Hiller. All joking aside regarding the last two home opener’s, this one should be a WIN – Michigan has superior talent to limit the WMU offense and the team should be very well prepared. Michigan, 1-0

9/12 Notre Dame – Michigan has enjoyed great success against ND in the last few years, and last years rain soaked game was the perfect storm for the young Michigan team. ND returns virtually their entire offense including Clausen and Tate, and a healthy # of defensive players. This is clearly a pivotal season for Weiss esp. after last year’s – MEH season (7-6) that included an embarrassing loss to Syracuse (adv. Mich DC). ND will be coming off their own opener against a good Nevada team with a high powered offense so there can be no assumption that both teams will be 1-0. Michigan dominated the last home game between these two and there will no doubt be a Clausen/Tate v. Stevie Brown moment. I like to think this one is a tossup in the end so I will handicap it. Michigan 1.5-.5

9/19 Eastern Michigan – I would like to think that this one should go smoothly, and that with two games under our belt this team should have an idea who is under center and there should be no problem with a EMU team that went 2-6 in conference and 3-9 overall (familiar?). Michigan 2.5-.5

9/26 Indiana, Big Ten opener, fourth straight home game, and a team Michigan desperately wishes was on its 2008 schedule (1-7, 3-9). At this point, both teams will have played WMU, so we will certainly have a measuring stick leading up to this game. IU no longer has a QB controversy, as Chappell will be their leader – Kellen Lewis has switched to WR…Reports indicate that IU has a new offense referred to as the “Pistol”, which involves shotgun, the tailback BEHIND the QB, and incorporates the no-huddle. WTF? Indiana has more to overcome than even Michigan does, and this is a home game… Michigan 3.5-.5

10/03 Michigan State, definitely one to circle on the early half of the schedule and the team should certainly be motivated after last year’s loss… For the team, it will be their first game away from Ann Arbor and little brother will certainly put up a big fight after last year’s win. The Spartans (9-4, 6-2) lost QB Brian Hoyer and RB Javon Ringer, but still have seven offensive and eight defensive starters back. Dantonio has recently signaled that the starting QB race between Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol could go all the way into the 2009 season. Cousins has limited game experience as a backup last year and Nichol is a transfer from Oklahoma (from Lowell, MI). Overall this one could go either way… If you go with the logic that Michigan has better talent and should be much improved, then you can be optimistic that they should be in this game… If you think Dantonio is a good coach and is building something at MSU then you are probably pessimistic about our chances. By gameday each team will be well into the season and we will have more answers. Give it to State today, but my heart says a toss-up. Michigan 3.5-1.5

10/10 Iowa, another road game and this one is against a Big Ten team that started 3-3 last year, but finished with a string of big wins including a big one over PSU (also most of their losses were close). Returning QB in Stanzi, who with improvement could be very solid, and good LB core. Tough for Michigan but for the time being we will give it to Iowa… 3.5-2.5

10/17 Delaware State, defer to Brian’s preview around the time they were scheduled. Home game, anything but a win mid season in this one would be a complete embarrassment. 4.5-2.5.
10/24 Penn State, this year @ home, Nick Sheridan should wear street clothes for this one. PSU will have strengths at all the key positions, and Evan Royster by this time should be having a hell of a season. They lose a lot at WR, OL, and Defense, but this is a very talented team. This game hinges on QB play and hopefully the home crowd and a fast start can assist Michigan. PSU has to be a clear favorite in this game. 4.5-3.5

10/31 Illinois, definitely an explosive offense and a road game down in Champagne. Juice is finally a Senior, but future dual threat QB Eddie McGee has been getting time in the slot, so Michigan will get a look at him either way… The Illini sucked last year, except when they roared past UofM, overall their explosive Offense is mostly intact from last year (individual yardage record by Juice at the Big House last year) and this game could end up being a barn burner. I don’t like this one unless the Offense is really clicking, but both teams are coming off poor seasons. Toss-up. Michigan 5-4

11/07 Purdue, hopefully after a good showing at Illinois this is a welcomed home game after a nice win. Michigan could have beaten Purdue last year, except for their one game offensive explosion. Joe Tiller is out the door and replaced by Danny Hope. The offense of the Drew Brees era is long gone and Purdue like Michigan has a laundry list of possible QBs. This one should be a great home game for Michigan. 6-4

11/14 Wisconsin, we stunk in the first half vs. Wisco last year, and several miracles occurred in the second half. They lose PJ Hill (John Clay may be a good enough replacement) who was falling apart and neither their offense nor defense is very spectacular (6 or so returning starters on each). If this was a home game I would figure Michigan for a great shot at victory, I have never been a Beilema fan so maybe I am being too optimistic. But I think a surging Michigan team can win this game. I won’t go too crazy though and will just leave this as a toss-up. 6.5-4.5

11/21 OSU, so many story lines… 5 game losing streak to OSU, Pryor’s first Big House Trip, a Michigan team maybe looking to be bowl eligible. OSU should be good, they return a lot of starters though they lose Laurinaitis and Jenkins on defense. Pryor who had a great frosh campaign should have some good seasoning… hate to say in but they are the conference favorite. Hold it right there… Bo beat an undefeated OSU in his first season, and according to RR’s track record, last year really shouldn’t count as much more than a long series of scrimmages. This game is the biggest of them all and there should be a lot of pride on the line after last year’s embarrassing second half. The week leading up to this game kills my work productivity even when we are the prohibitive underdog. I have to say OSU at this point, but I am hoping for a good level of optimism. 6.5-5.5

Overall I am an optimist, I think we beat either ND or MSU in the first half of the season (both are winnable) and I think we WIN at Illinois in a shootout. I am optimistic that we will be 7-5 next year. However, I think that if we find the luck we never got last year – we have a shot at 8-4, and a Max at 9-3… Our bottom I think is known, there are 4 games on the schedule that should be wins (WMU, EMU, D.State, Indiana) without much contest and that we have to win at least one other game. So 5 wins would be our basement in my opinion.

It’s early… But what are your thoughts?

Also, to my loser friend Rob who reads this blog and refuses to get a login, YOU SUCK!

Comments

jrt336

April 17th, 2009 at 7:48 PM ^

WMU- Toss up, should win (have we ever lost 3 home openers straight?)
ND- Loss
EMU - Win
Indiana- Win
@MSU- Toss up, probably loss
@Iowa - Loss
Delaware St.- Win
Penn St.- Loss
@Illinois-Loss
Purdue- Win
@Wisconsin-Toss up, probably loss
OSU- Loss
I say we go 5-7 or 6-6

spybucks182

April 17th, 2009 at 7:52 PM ^

WMU -- W
ND -- L
EMU -- W
Indiana -- W
MSU -- L
Iowa -- W
DSU -- W
PSU -- L
Illinois--L
Purdue -- W
Wisconsin -- L
OSU - W

Best 7-5 season in school history for obvious reasons

the_white_tiger

April 17th, 2009 at 8:41 PM ^

Oh well, maybe later... good job though. Although on some points I disagree.

(* = toss up)

WMU - W
ND - *
EMU - W
INDY - W
at MSU - *
at Iowa - L (They're underrated and will challenge PSU for the Big Ten)
DSU - W (please...)
PSU - L
Illini - L
PUR - W
Wisky - *
OSU - * (optimistically)

That would turn out to be the same. 9-3 ceiling. 5-7 basement. athough 7-5 ios likely.

MaizeinPhilly

April 17th, 2009 at 8:44 PM ^

WMU - W
ND - L
EMU - W
Indiana - W
MSU - L
Iowa - L
DSU - W
PSU - L
Illinois - L
Purdue - W
Wisconsin - W
OSU - W 34-31 :)

After hanging tight in a close loss to Illinois and a revenge blow out victory over Purdue, we gel as a team going into Madison and take care of Wisconsin. Swelling with confidence we win an up-tempo game over tO$U.

The Wisconsin game worries me the most; it's hard not to look ahead that week, but a win there with good execution on both sides of the ball would go a real long way in helping us beat the buckeyes.

Route66

April 17th, 2009 at 9:26 PM ^

WMU -- W
ND -- w
EMU -- W
Indiana -- W
MSU -- W
Iowa -- L
DSU -- W
PSU -- L
Illinois--L
Purdue -- W
Wisconsin -- W
OSU - L

8-4 and I hate putting an L next to the last one. That could be a W.

REASONING: I really think this offense can put 40 on people per game. The defense will gel and we have enough good athletes to stop people. I really think the offense will hang points on teams. Really. I am not 12 and I am not making this up. The O-line is solid and if Tate or Denard get going, we have enough weapons to do this. Remember what RR's offense can do when on all cylinders. Also, I am running the risk of jinxing us but the injury bug shall not hit us this year like last. Trust me on this one. ONE CAN BE OPTIMISTIC, right? Go ahead, tear me up.

Think about the headlines heading into Iowa. You know all of us have thought this, maybe I just have big enough nuts to write it.

Onas

April 20th, 2009 at 12:36 PM ^

Even if Forcier has a bad year, the o-line is better and we've got veteran RBs, Faegin and Robinson. The defense will be the key. Against teams with slow-scoring offenses (MSU, Iowa, Wisc) we'll run away. Against teams that can keep up the scoring (Ill, PSU?, OSU) it'll be a shootout.

Rodriquez's offenses dominated (granted) the Big East and won 2 BCS bowls even though they ran a predictable 75% of the time. Our opponents won't be ready for it this year. Look, even with last year's abysmal offense we led at one point in all but two games. (ND and OSU).

I'm hoping for 9-3 (ILL, PSU, OSU).

CheckOutMyRod

April 17th, 2009 at 10:31 PM ^

I just dont see this team winning more than 6 games with a true freshman qb and I dont like out defense AT ALL!! The d-line will be good but other than that they will suck. I hate saying that but the d just isnt there yet. The offense will be better but we are not hanging 40 week in week out which is what it will take to win some of those games.

dmontag

April 17th, 2009 at 10:54 PM ^

Early guess - to be updated in August when the dust settles:

WMU: W
ND: L
EMU: W
Indiana: W
@MSU: L
@Iowa: L
DSU: W
PSU: L
@Illinois: L
Purdue: W
@Wisconsin: L
OSU: L

That adds up to 5-7 (0-4 on the road). Maybe we can win one of those road games (most likely Illinois) and sneak into a crummy bowl game.

By the way, I don't think we've lost to MSU two years in a row since Duffy Daugherty was their coach.

mvp

April 18th, 2009 at 8:41 PM ^

Last year we could have won Utah, Toledo, or Northwestern and maybe even Notre Dame (if things had gone differently to start the second half...). My point is, the Michigan teams of Lloyd Carr were X wins +/- 1 win. 2008 (and 2009 for that matter) did not have that much certainty.

My contention is that last year Michigan was a 4-win team, +/- 3. To get to 7 we would have had to win all the above mentioned games. That would have been "overachieving" for that squad.

I still don't think the volatility drops to +/- 1 win next year. Maybe +/- 2, but more likely +/- 3. I think the baseline is better at 6, but it is 6 +/- 3. There are just so many unknowns at this point.

9 wins would have lots of people floating on air, 3 wins will induce calls for heads to be chopped. Either could happen.

formerlyanonymous

April 18th, 2009 at 10:14 PM ^

Despite my admittedly pessimistic prediction below, I think that the volatility argument holds some truth. As discussed in some previous post and comment somewhere else, the spread has a way of amplifying strengths or weaknesses.

Also, I was counting Indiana as a toss up with Lewis at QB, I revise that to most probably a win. So my ceiling would be 6, but I still feel that we fall under that.

brown

April 18th, 2009 at 10:30 PM ^

eehh + or - 1 gives you a two game window but a + or - 3 is a huuuge six game window. You might as well not make a prediction at all at that point!

I predict games will be played next year and michigan will either win them or lose them. Take it to the bank!

mvp

April 21st, 2009 at 6:18 PM ^

Agreed 6 +/- 3 isn't a prediction. My prediction is six wins. I'm not going to be surprised if it ends up being nine or three. One would obviously make me happier than the other.

My point is that our thinking has to be different now. There used to be (as a generic example) 7 bankable wins, 1 bankable loss, and four games that you could make reasonable predictions about.

For next year, I'm suggesting 3 bankable wins, 3 bankable losses, and 6 coin flips. Or maybe (to complicate this dead horse even further) 2 bankable wins, 2 probable wins, 4 coin flips, 2 probable losses and 2 bankable losses. Or something.

I originally looked at the thread and thought that people were projecting *way* more certainty on the situation that actually exists.

karpodiem

April 17th, 2009 at 11:26 PM ^

explain to me why most people think we're going to lose in east lansing this year? Yes, freshman quarterback in his 1st away game...However I think our Minor/Brown combo runs all over them.

And if I had to chose a personality for the type of quarterback I want going into this, Tate is more or less my type of guy.

formerlyanonymous

April 18th, 2009 at 12:32 AM ^

I imagine our run game will be moderately successful against MSU, but with our questions on defense, and the whole first road game, I think I'd say I'm less than confident in the outcome - say to the tune of 45% chance of winning. That's not that far from a toss up.

I wouldn't be surprised if Dantonio sells out to stop the run, but we won't know until we know how the offense performs in the start of the season if we can overcome teams doing that. While I'd hope our OL has actually become better, spring ball isn't the best place to judge that on. Nor is the blind faith that guys are doing better right now.

That's why I think most people feel less than confident in the MSU game. Most of it is just question marks on how good we may be. I think a lot of people learned from the mistakes of these type of threads last season. Just because we're eternal optimist and want to see Michigan do well, some aspirations are left in check due to the unknown and recent misfortune.

And as for "my type of guy," I don't think we know anything about the type of quarterback/guy he is until we see him in real games. We don't know how he'll perform and respond to game pressures yet. So while he may be your type of guy in the future (very possible), I think it's somewhat premature to stick that tag on him already.

And after saying this, I'll note I'm pretty pessimistic about many things. Take is as you may.

formerlyanonymous

April 18th, 2009 at 12:18 AM ^

WMU W
ND W
EMU W
Indiana W
@MSU W
@Iowa W
DSU W
PSU W
@Illinois W
Purdue W
@Wisconsin W
OSU W

Really though, I honestly wouldn't be surprised one bit if we went 3-9 (EMU/DSU/maybe WMU/Indiana/Purdue). I'm setting my projected ceiling at 5.

Edit: That says ceiling, I don't think we make that.

brown

April 18th, 2009 at 10:33 PM ^

Im surprised more people aren't guaranteeing a purdue win at home (which I am). They lost a qb and didn't really have one to start with. We almost beat them last year AT PURDUE. Even if we are just as bad this year you have to figure home field advantage will be enough to beat them.

los barcos

April 18th, 2009 at 12:28 AM ^

i think we're all letting last year cloud our judgment. let me tell you why 8-4 (or better) might be very realistic: in a word (or 2) schedule/scheduling.

clearly, next year our schedule is very favorable:
1) 8 home games: i cant stress this enough how important this is for a young team, esp a young qb. not to mention we have the first 4 at home...tate/denard will have a quarter of a season under their belt before they even hit the road. they're still going to be freshmen, but they're not going into notre dame in the 3rd week of the season.

2)speaking of those first 4 games....there is only 1 game out of those 4 i believe should truly be a toss up. western was solid last year for the mac, and they are returning a good qb. but there defense is rebuilding and we still have much more talent on both sides of the ball. i know i know 3-9 and all that, but this should be a much MUCH hungrier michigan team than what we've fielded before. i really think they're coming out with something to prove, and a chip on their shoulder. the western game wont be close. following that up with emu and the bottom feeder indiana, that should be three wins right there. nd has the potential to have a breakout year, and that game should be a dog fight. but to start the season, at worse i would say, at 3-1 would give this team some much needed confidence, which they lacked last year.

3) psu and osu at home: arguably 2 of our toughest games at the big house. im not saying we win those games, but it doesnt hurt.

4) down year in the big 10: ive asked this before, but whose coming in BETTER than what they were last year? msu, psu, osu, and even iowa lose some bigtime contributors. the big10 is going to be even worse than what it was last year, which only can help us.

ultimately, i think if last year's team was playing this year's schedule it MIGHT have been able to scrap together 5 wins: wmu is no utah. nd and purdue would be at home. indiana is theee worse team in the big10, and has been for some time, and is much worse than northwestern. deleware st/toledo...ehhhh....

on top of the schedule, this year's team has a plethora of more positives going into the season than last years. just naming a few: more solid oline, richrod year 2, barwis year 2, denard + tate likely more competent than sheridan + threet, easier schedule.......etc etc

i think, given all this, 8-4 is completely realistic.

dundee

April 18th, 2009 at 2:34 AM ^

lol it's hard to guage and guess how many wins or losses we'll have. but if our offense can cut down on turnovers even with a FR QB we will be better. that will in turn make our defense better. even the Steelers defense would get tired if they were on the field 45 min.. so if the offense can hole the ball make a few extra first downs per game with our schedule we should be at least 7-5 with MSU,ND,and PSU toss ups with the personal they've lost. oh! by the way we are still at least 1 year away from beating OSU unless Terrelle gets hurt.

Tater

April 18th, 2009 at 8:22 AM ^

WMU: W
ND: W- ND is not good, Weis is an idiot, revenge factor 10
EMU: W
Indiana: W
@MSU: W- they are breaking in a new QB and lost Ringer. And they are still little sister.
@Iowa: L- Trap game.
DSU: W
PSU: L- Might still have too much talent for UM defense this year.
@Illinois: W
Purdue: W
@Wisconsin: L-Trap game, revenge factor high.
OSU: W- Pryor heavier, probably slower in system that doesn't let him focus on his strengths. TP is not a pocket passer. Tressel is trying to turn a cat into a dog; it doesn't work. Also, I think he will be playing through injuries at that point. Besides, enough is enough. They can't lose again.

As I posted in an earlier thread, 40 years later, and the score remains the same:

UM 24, OSU 12.

bigwill

April 18th, 2009 at 9:20 AM ^

WMU- W
ND- W
EMU - W
Indiana- W
@MSU- W
@Iowa - W
Delaware St.- Win
Penn St.- Loss
@Illinois-Win
Purdue- Win
@Wisconsin-Toss Up
OSU- If we win @ Wisc, we'll win this one

The offense will carry the defense all season

magonus

April 18th, 2009 at 9:21 AM ^

WMU- W
ND- T
EMU - W
Indiana- W
@MSU- W
@Iowa - T
Delaware St.- W
Penn St.- L
@Illinois - W
Purdue- W
@Wisconsin - L
OSU - T

That's 7-2 with three toss-ups, meaning 8-4 or 9-3.

I realize that calling OSU a toss-up might be a bit of a stretch, but if we were to have an upset this season this would be it. Last game of the season, so our young players will have some experience under their belts, it's in Ann Arbor and we're going to be very, very hungry for a win over them given the drought.

AMazinBlue

April 18th, 2009 at 10:11 AM ^

I posted a 7-5 or 9-3 record with the three "toss-ups" or swing games being Iowa, PSU and OSU. I also had the MSU as a marginal win game being the first road game, and losses at Iliinois (Juice) and Wisky (Camp Randall). As I review that and take in what I have seen of this team (read mental state thru Spring Game and all comments) I am cautiously very optimistic.

To truly give an honest idea of where M will be at season's end is obviously guesswork at best, but last year was the perfect storm of disaster. Everything that could have possibly gone wrong, went wrong, ND and Purdue were the posters of disaster. Saying all that and now that the Paulus shit is behind us, here's what I see happening. I believe 9-3 is strong possibility. The MSU game will be a great litmus test.

Sept. 5 WESTERN MICHIGAN - W
Sept. 12 NOTRE DAME - W
Sept. 19 EASTERN MICHIGAN - W
Sept. 26 INDIANA* (HC) - W
Oct. 3 at Michigan State* - w/l
Oct. 10 at Iowa* - W
Oct. 17 DELAWARE STATE - W
Oct. 24 PENN STATE* - L
Oct. 31 at Illinois* - L
Nov. 7 PURDUE* - W
Nov. 14 at Wisconsin* - L
Nov. 21 OHIO STATE* - W

For the record, prior to my post, The 14 prior predictions combined show an average of 6.9 wins and 5.07 losses. 7-5 would good, but I think this team has something to prove.

Logan88

April 18th, 2009 at 11:47 AM ^

Someone convince me WHY PSU will be good this year?

PSU lost 3 starters on the OL and ALL of their multi-year starting WR's. Their OL will struggle IMO, which will offset the return of Clark and Royster somewhat. On defense, they lose 2 of the DL, including pass rusher extraordinaire Maybin and their ENTIRE starting defensive backfield. Lack of pass rush+4 new DB's=passing bonanza for opposing offenses (see UM vs. Florida in Cap One Bowl).

Also, consider that PSU has shown a history of following up good, senior heavy teams (2008) with very "meh" teams the following season.

PSU will not be better than 8-4 next, IMO, and they will only do that well because they play the weakest non-conference schedule since the Tom Osborne days at Nebraska.

In conclusion, UM WILL beat PSU in 2009. Overall record 7-5, maybe 8-4 with luck.

the_white_tiger

April 18th, 2009 at 2:00 PM ^

1.) Out of conference Penn State plays Akron, Syracuse, Temple, and Eastern Illinois. Their first four games (Akron, Syracuse, Temple, and an underrated Iowa team) are at home. All of those games should provide valuable experience for the O-Line and Defense and should provide confidence with four straight early season wins. They have eight home games and face Ohio State at home also. (The two Michigan and two Illinois teams are on the road. That is probably one of the easier schedules in the Big Ten. They do not play Purdue or Wisconsin which might turn out to be a bad thing.

2.) Their defense will be bolstered by the return of Sean Lee who was near consensus All-American status before tearing an ACL in the spring. He will be a Fifth year senior and joins returning leading tackler Navarro Bowman for what looks to be the Big Ten's best LB corps. They do lose both DE's but both Dt's return. Their secondary is indeed depleted but the Big Ten is not a pass happy league by any means, and the LB's will be good stopping the run and covering TE's, RB's and even some slots in the flat. Their run defense will be great like last year.

3.) The offensive line returns All-Big Ten guard WIsnewski and senior tackle (not All-Big Ten) Landholt. Indeed they will have a hard time finding WR's and they will not be near as good in that position as years past. Not so fast my friend, they return First Team All-Big Ten quarterback, seniors Daryl Clark, and running back, Evan Royster. They will run the ball liberally and be fine.

4.) JoePa is a phenominal coach. Throwing that out there. No issues, drama, or anything right now for them (since those arrests last summer). He's righted the ship and they're going about their business.

All of that being said I am hating PSU right now, we are getting tons of crap for the whole Greg Paulus thing. Hey, I still think a good year for them though and while I would like to see them lose their possible (not unlikely) undefeated season again in Ann Arbor...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofg5EiHxaX8 (sorry I cannot embed videos)

and a few more for luck...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7K_WPDZkfA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWb1kgxA3-Q

ah... memories.

Still, 10-2 for PSU, losses to two of the three; Iowa, at Illinois, Ohio State. 11-1 is not impossible. A loss to U$C in the Rose Bowl again is not improbable.

tubauberalles

April 18th, 2009 at 12:09 PM ^

Seriously, what a bunch of wet blankets. I understand we're all burned, bruised and bummed and this forum will tear down anyone optimistic, but sheesh.

Money? Mouth? Okay - 9-3. Iowa, Illinois (but close) and either PSU or OSU.

But, then again, I'm a fan. Not trying to burnish my sports credibility.

msoccer10

April 18th, 2009 at 1:18 PM ^

but so were a lot of people. I am betting on 6-6
WMU-win
ND-loss
Eastern-win
IU-win
MSU-tossup
Iowa-tossup (figure we split these last two and are sitting at 4-2)
Delaware State- win (oh my god please not another Toledo or App. State)
PSU-loss
Illinois-tossup
Purdue-win
Wisconsin-loss
OSU-loss
Which might mean three loses to end the season if we go to a bowl. Dammit.

cutter

April 18th, 2009 at 2:52 PM ^

WMU -- W
ND -- W/L
EMU -- W
Indiana -- W
At MSU -- W/L
At Iowa -- W/L
DSU -- W
PSU -- L
At Illinois--L
Purdue -- W
At Wisconsin -- L
OSU - L

From what we now about the team to date, I can foresee at least four fairly certain wins: Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Indiana and Delaware State.

I'm a touch less optimistic about Purdue, but I suspect that game's also a likely victory for the fifth win.

There are a few games I'd throw out as possible wins--Notre Dame, At Michigan State and At Iowa. ND's team is very talented of offense and this should be a bellweather game for both squads. I suspect the Irish win this one. I'm also going to guess that Michigan gets a victory out of the games at Michigan State or Iowa. If the Wolverines are 5-2 after seven games, then they should be in great shape for bowl contention. 4-3 would make me much less optimistic.

I talked about Purdue above--they're one of the last five opponents. Despite playing them in Ann Arbor, I have to imagine Penn State and Ohio State will be favored. Games on the road against Illinois and Wisconsin will also be difficult--keep in mind that Michigan will be playing this year with either a true freshman QB (Forcier, Robinson) or Sheridan. The success of the offense is predicated on quarterback play, and I think it'll take a year before everything is in place for the position group.

Depending on how things break, this team could go 5-7 to 7-5 during the regular season. Six wins or more will put them in a bowl game. I'm hard pressed to see eight wins out of this squad in 2009--still too many question marks and depth/talent issues.

If the recruiting holds up and the defense solidifies, then this team should see marked improvement in 2010 and 2011. Michigan will probably have another eight home game season in 2011 with ND, PSU and OSU all in Ann Arbor. I think that's the season where you see UM as a legit national championship contender.

umrev08

April 18th, 2009 at 4:06 PM ^

WMU - W
ND - Toss Up
EMU - W
Indiana - W
MSU - Toss Up
Iowa - L
DSU - W
PSU - Toss Up
Illinois - Toss Up
Wisconsin - W
OSU - L

Anyone saying we'll win less than five is almost as ridiculous as the people saying we'll go 11-1 or 12-0.

Geaux_Blue

April 18th, 2009 at 8:48 PM ^

Break them down into splits - we're not taking 4-0 in some of these maybes

Sadly I think we lose one of WMU/EMU/Indiana/DSU: 3-1
ND/MSU: 1-1, overall 4-2
Iowa/Illinois/Purdue: 1-2, overall 5-4
PSU/Wisconsin/OSU: 1-2, overall 6-6

Blue boy johnson

April 18th, 2009 at 9:24 PM ^

It is too mind numbing for me to go game by game. What I will say is Western is going to get whupped bad in the opener, further than that I won't go.
Heed Bo! "we've got big goals, we've got big ideas,and there is no game on the remainder of the schedule more Important than the one we're going down the tunnel to play today, so lets go!"

TTUwolverine

April 19th, 2009 at 1:25 PM ^

The first part of the season is jam-packed with winnable games, and I could see us starting the season 7-0 or 6-1. Write it down, we WILL beat ND at home this year. Iowa and MSU are clearly the two toughest games here, and I think that we will win at least one of these. I think Iowa is our best shot, and MSU will be very tough. I see a lot of people talking about Ringer and Hoyer being gone, but they will fill in a serviceable back, and Hoyer sucked anyway. I am pretty confident that Nichol will win out the QB spot, and he is a very talented QB (way better than Hoyer). MSU will be good, IMO, and we had better show up ready to play. Penn State will be worse than last year, but they will have enough talent to get by. If we go 7-0 or 6-1 by now, the big house will be rocking and we could pick up the win here in a close game. As for Illinois, visions if Juice Williams tearing us limb for limb keep running through my head, and until I see our defense stop a mobile QB, I'm chalking that one up as a loss. Purdue will be solid, and that should be a tough game. Wisconsin should be improved, out for revenge, and Camp Randall is a tough place to play.

And you know what, we will CRUSH OSU. Thats right, I said it. 68-3 final score. Tate will be personally responsible for 7 touchdowns. I am an unashamed biased Michigan fan, not a sportswriter.

bigbluefan95

April 19th, 2009 at 1:41 PM ^

Michigan vs Western Michigan W
Michigan vs Notre Dame L
Michigan vs Eastern Michigan W
Michigan vs Indiana W
Michigan at Michigan St W/L
Michigan at Iowa W
Michigan vs Delaware St W
Michigan vs Penn St L
Michigan at Illinois L
Michigan vs Purdue W
Michigan at Wisconsin W
Michigan vs Ohio St L
i have a win vs WMU cause Michigan's runnig game (brown/minor) will own. A loss vs ND cause they return to many players after they won last year. A win vs EMU cause they just suck. A tossup at MSU cause it is our and tate's first away game which i dont know how he will respond to it. A win at Iowa cause they lose Shonn Green and U of M's D should handle the rest. A win vs Delaware St cause they also suck. A loss vs Penn St cause they return Clark, Royster and their D is better by the return of Sean Lee. A loss at Illinois cause juice and arrelious should light up our young secondary. A win vs Purdue cause they lose to much and our team is getting better as the year goes on. A win at wisconsin cause they cant pass and we can stop the run. And finally a loss vs Ohio St cause we just aren't good enough yet.

bluesouth

April 19th, 2009 at 10:42 PM ^

I just hope we don't get pantsed by Deleware State, IU, Perdue, Western, Eastern, and MSU.

But in that article in the NY Times he said he's still a little nervous and so am I.

Rich Rod, said
"I was hired to build a program and not a team," Rodriguez said. "We think we've got the foundation built. But we've still got a ways to go until the whole thing is constructed. But we're a lot further along than we were a year ago."

Catahoulajak

April 21st, 2009 at 9:52 AM ^

I will no longer try and predict a season win total. From now on it is one game at a time for me. That being said, I say we beat WMU 31-24. I just wish the season would hurry up and get here already.

victors2000

April 21st, 2009 at 7:55 PM ^

WMU- W
Tate has a decent game, the offense is certainly better than last year, but the D has a little trouble with the Western spread. Michigan ranked #23
ND- W
Tate and the offense have success against a suspect Notre Dame defense while our defense keeps the major mistakes to a minimum.
Michigan ranked #19
EMU - W
Indiana- W
@MSU- W
State loses a bunch of talent from last year, including the starting qb and rb, a couple O-lineman as well as key players on defense, including SS Otis Wiley. I think our defense comes up strong while Tate/Denard do enough to outscore State. Michigan ranked #12
@Iowa - W
Our defense keeps them bottled up all day, while key big plays on offense open up a close game late. Michigan ranked #9
Delaware St.- W
Penn St.- W
Penn State loses a TON of people from last year's squad. This will be a beat down. By this time we are seeing much progress both offensively and defensively, riding a high that comes with an undefeated season. Michigan ranked #5
@Illinois - W
Oh I hardly have the gumption to call this a win. The Ilini lost 3 guys on the offense and like 7 on defense. This is going to be a night game I believe and I think there are going to be fireworks galore. Ultimately our offense tires out their defense more than their offense gasses ours. We pull out a big victory. Michigan ranked #3
Purdue- W
@Wisconsin - W
Bieliema (however you spell his name, after this year it might not matter) doesn't have the talent or the coaching saavy to elevate this team. Offensively they will be one dimensional and that will be the key; this game will be similar to last year at our place minus the first half. We will gas their defense and win going away. Michigan #2
OSU - W
This is going to be a huge game. OSU loses several key offensive players, but they will reload. They do lose Beanie and some O-lineman; I don't believe Pryor will ever be a pro qb prospect and this makes the bucks a little one dimensional. Defensively they lose a couple guys but again, they reload. They may be unbeaten by the time the UM game rolls around but if they are not, they won't have too many losses. I think the key factors in this game is the OSU running game won't be as good as last year and Pryor's passing isn't going to be dramatically improved from last year either. I think the bucks will play it close to the vest and we will keep them in check for most of the game. Offensively we are able to achieve a bit more success and are able to take a lead into the second half. The game gets more intense in the second half and the longer the game goes on and it is still close, the fans get more excited and both they and the team start to believe. Finally, our offensive pressure is too much and we begin to tire their defense out. Pryor is unable to to move their offense effectively enough, and we get the monkey off our back with a key win! Michigan #1
We can all hope, right?