spoiler alert: i linked this
System One: Win-Based
Bottom 5 of the FBS:Eastern Michigan (0-12)
Western Kentucky (0-12)
Miami (Not That Miami) (1-11)
Washington State (1-11)
New Mexico (1-11)
Top 5 (6) of the FCS:
Montana (14-0) - In Championship Game
Villanova (13-1) - In Championship Game
Richmond (11-2) - Lost to App State
Southern Illinois (11-2) - Lost to W&M
William&Mary (11-3) - Lost to Villanova
Appalachian State (11-3) Lost to Montana
Win by Montana would drop out S. Illinois, win by Villanova would drop out Richmond.
System Two: Sagarin Rankings-Based
Bottom 5 Sagarin FBS (it is unlikely these will change):
Western Kentucky: 192
Eastern Michigan: 182
North Texas: 162
New Mexico State: 152
Miami (Not That Miami): 150
Top 5 Sagarin FCS (these might change next weekend):
Appalachian State: 75
So let's say we combined these two lists and dropped the bottom four out of the FBS, just for the sake of making promotion simple. EMU, W. Kentucky, Miami (Not That Miami), and NM State all appear on both lists, and would get bumped down to FCS. Montana, Villanova, William & Mary, and Appalachian State, the top four teams in the FCS playoff, would be brought up to replace. The teams would take opened spots in the most local conferences, replacing the bumped teams on the conference schedules.
William & Mary and Villanova would trade conferences with EMU and Miami, because of location. W. Kentucky would switch with App. State, again due to location, and Montana would switch with NM State.
If the FCS teams managed to win the next year, they would make the cut and get to stay. If they didn't, they would just get bumped back down into their old conferences. The old FBS teams would be required to make the final four in the FCS in order to move up again.
I feel like this would liven up competition in the FCS as well as lighting a fire under the bottom-rung teams in the FBS. Probably will never happen, but wouldn't it be an amazing change?
Home Blog contains my scoring system and the schedule of events, as well as the top classes I have done so far.
Purdue's rosters got here Monday. Good thing. Means that I can start working on them and actually get some information. I have back to WWII, minus a few years, so that's good.
I'm going to stop summarizing with my first paragraph at the bottom. You can all figure out what the numbers mean.
This is my second of two Michigan classes in a row, and then I'm going to try to find enough information to do the next one down on my list... we will see how that goes, really. Playing it by ear on schools not named Michigan (or Purdue now).
Set the Stage:
Head Coach: Bo Schembechler (1989), Gary Moeller (1990-1993)
1988 Performance: 9-2-1, AP 4th, Big Ten 1st
New Blood: 19
Mini Recruiting Board Lives Here:
The 1989 was recruited off of what had been a standard 9-win Big Ten Title season. The class was strongly balanced, with a good mix of every position. I do not know if Bo thought this was his last season by the time this season started, but it is clear that he was intending on leaving a strong foundation for his successor.
How They Did:
Overall Record: 46-11-3
Varsity Letters: 46
Graduated on Team: 16
Started a Game: 10
Full Eligibility: 12
5th Year Seniors: 10
- Derrick Alexander, WR, All-American 1992, All-Conference 1992 1993
- Tony McGee, TE, All-Conference 1992
- Buster Stanley, DT, All-Conference 1993
- Derrick Alexander, 1994, 1st Round, 29 Overall
- Tony McGee, 1993, 2nd Round, 37 Overall
So, besides being the year I was born, 1989 is famously known as the year after Desmond Howard was recruited, or Bo's last year coaching. That's about it. The class produced two draftees, but they went in rounds 1 and 2, so that is redeeming. One All-American honor was awarded, to Derrick Alexander, who also was All-Big Ten twice and a first-round draft pick. Alexander was solely responsible for .0700 points of this class, giving the class a strong boost. This class only started 15.9% of possible starts, implying that the surrounding classes will be much stronger.
This class also had a very weird senior season Senior season (9-0-3), and a weak 5th Year (8-4-0). When I get more data points, I'm going to try to link 4th year record to recruiting score, so I'd consider their senior year to be 10.5 wins.
So at this point I am having many issues with finding enough information for schools not named Michigan before 2004. I've had to skip one Penn State class and am sure I'll have to do it with other schools. Fortunately, Purdue and Minnesota are mailing me their information. I've got requests out at many schools trying to get information. So at this point, I've got two Michigan classes in a row, and then back to the grind of finding information. Enjoy.
Edit: It's randomly bolded, and I can't get the editor here to unbold parts of it. I give up again. When I write my posts in dreamweaver they are supposed to come out perfectly!
Set the Stage:
Head Coach: Lloyd Carr
2001 Performance: 8-4-0, 2nd Big Ten, 20th Overall
New Blood: 23
Mini Recruiting Board Lives Here:
The 2002 class was recruited off of a mediocre 8-4 campaign in 2001, which succumbed to Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl. Lloyd aimed for a very balanced class here, though a light on the line on both sides of the ball. The emphasis on skill positions was expected to pay off in spades. This class contained 13 in-state players, showing Lloyd's preference for Michigan Men to come from Michigan.
How They Did:
Overall Record: 47-16
Varsity Letters: 61
Graduated on Team: 18
Started a Game: 17
Full Eligibility: 15
5th Year Seniors: 12
- Jason Avant, WR, All-Conference 2005
- Dave Harris, ILB, All-Conference 2006
- Gabriel Watson, DT, All-Conference 2005 2006
- Jason Avant, 2006, 4th Round, 109 Overall
- Steve Breaston, 2007, 5th Round, 142 Overall
- Dave Harris, 2007, 2nd Round, 47 Overall
- Gabriel Watson, 2006, 4th Round, 107 Overall
Of the 23 students drafted, 18 graduated, 17 started a game, 15 used their full eligibility, and 12 played as redshirt seniors.
I think this class justifies the use of the man-game starting ratio. This team had an extremely weak starting percentage, barely over 15%, but a high winning percentage, ~75%. The senior season, at 7-5, reflects the starting percentage well. All other classes for Michigan within this time period should have a higher starting percentage, and better senior seasons. This was nowhere near Carr's best performing class.
The lean of this class was towards its skill players in recruiting, and a couple of strong players came from it. Steve Breaston and Jason Avant were both strong receivers and anchors for their senior campaigns. However, the linemen, even though they had less presence, had 43% of the starts for the class. Gabe Watson, DT, won two All-Conference First Team honors, and was drafted just before Jason Avant in the '06 draft. Of the skill players, only two wide receivers an an inside linebacker (Dave Harris) stood out, while Gabe Watson, Reuben Riley, Mark Bihl, and Rondell Biggs all became strong presences on the line during their respective senior campaigns.
Welcome to my new way of doing things.
I have begun a new blog, covering the recruiting history of all of the schools in the Big Ten. The rules for how I am doing things can be found there, as well as the schedule of events. Every Michigan post will be cross-posted here, for your viewing pleasure. If there is an especially impressive class at another school, I will also post it here, with plenty of added references and M comparisons and what-not.
Set the Stage:Coach: Bo Schembechler
1980 Performance: 10-2, Rose Bowl Victory, Final Ranking: 4th National, 1st Big Ten
1981 New Blood Count: 24
Mini Recruiting Board Lives Here:
The 1981 class was recruited coming off of the wings of a great 1980 season, which culminated in a Rose Bowl win. The class included 12 offensive and 12 defensive players, a very balanced 24-man class. The lack of a quarterback is explained by the presence of Steve Smith, who was the starting QB for most of the games for the first 3 seasons of this class. There was obvious weakness in both the linebacker and offensive line cores, which Bo hoped to fill with this class.
How They Did:Overall Record: 42-17-1
Varsity Letters: 56
Graduated on Team: 18
Started a Game: 15
Full Eligibility: 11
5th Year Seniors: 8
- Kevin Brooks, All Conference 1983 1984
- Brad Cochran, All-American 1985, All-Conference 1985
- Mike Hammerstein, All-American 1985, All-Conference 1985
- Eric Kattus, All-Conference 1985
- Mike Mallory, All-Conference 1984 1985
- Clay Miller, All-Conference 1985
- Alan Sincich, All-Conference 1983
- Kevin Brooks, 1985, 1st Round, 17th Overall
- Brad Cochran, 1986, 3rd Round, 80th Overall
- Mike Hammerstein, 1986, 3rd Round, 65th Overall
- Eric Kattus, 1986, 4th Round, 91st Overall
- Clay Miller, 1986, 12th Round, 306th Overall
Of the 24 players recruited, 18 made it to graduation as members of the team. 15 made starts, and 11 played for their full four years.
The worst year for this class was in its senior year, 1984, when 12 players from the class made 114 starts and the team went 6-6. 1985 was an excellent year, in which 5 of the 8 remaining redshirt senior players made All-Conference and two made All-American honors (both of whom could have gone on to be cops). The 1985 team made it to the Fiesta Bowl, which they won, bringing their final record to 10-1-1. The caliber of the players in this class was sub-par compared to years surrounding it, shown by the general mediocrity of the team’s record.
Unfortunately for Bo, only 3 of the 7 OL recruits made any starts, one of which made one, one of which was a starting senior, and one of which converted to a DT and became an All-American. 5 of the 7 LB recruits made impacts on the team.
The shining point of this class was the defense. Of the 322 starts the class made, 201 were on defense. The two All-Americans were Brad Cochran, DB, who made 36 straight starts in his last 3 years, and Mike Hammerstein (Magnum, P.I.?), DT, who was MVP of the 1985 defense, which allowed a whopping 8.1 ppg. The three defensive players who were drafted went in the 1st, 3rd, and 3rd rounds.
Overall, the 1981 class built a strong defensive core, which allowed Bo to focus on the offense in the next year's class.
After my preliminary Diary, "Anatomy of a Recruiting Class: Bennie Oosterbaan's Last Class", I decided that I was going to take a different route in writing these. I am bunching teams together by coach, in order to give an idea of how each coach operated. I smoothed out my method of class analysis, as well. I am only considering freshmen, not walk-ons that start in their Sophomore or later seasons. As such, I actually wind up skipping a couple of early All-Americans.
The standard calculation I use for the capability of a recruiting class is the ratio of man-games started over total possible games played. Prior to 1965, there were 11 man-games played per game played, and after 1965 there were 22 man-games played per game played. Higher the ratio, better the class. In totaling how good a class was, I am using the formula:
M-G Ratio + .025 * All-Americans + .01 * Drafted Players + .1 * Heisman Players + .0001 * 3-year Players
From what I've come up with, a ratio of over .5 is considered to be a great class.
Chalmers "Bump" Elliot coached from 1959 to 1968, so his recruiting classes spanned the 1960-1969 Freshman classes. In his time as head coach, he only made one bowl game, in 1964.
1960: 60 Freshmen
1961: 24 Sophomores, 9 starts in 9 games.
1962: 23 Juniors, 37 starts in 9 games.
1963: 16 Seniors, 16 starts in 9 games.
1964: 4 Seniors, 10 starts in 10 games.
10 players made 72 starts, for a man-game ratio of .2136
15 players played for all 3 years of their eligibility.
Tom Keating, DT, Buffalo Bills, 1964
Class Score: .2251
1961: 61 Freshmen
1962: 25 Sophomores, 21 starts in 9 games.
1963: 21 Juniors, 48 starts in 9 games.
1964: 16 Seniors, 53 starts in 10 games.
1965: 0 Seniors
12 players made 122 starts, for a man-game ratio of .3961
14 players played for all 3 years of their eligibility
Robert Timberlake, QB, 1964
Robert Timberlake, K, New York Giants, 1965
Arnold Simkus, DE, Cleveland Browns, 1965
John Henderson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles, 1965
Class Score: .4525
Note: 1965 was the first year that offense and defense were separated, doubling the number of man-games played. There also were 10 regular season games from 1965 onward.
1962: 50 Freshmen
1963: 34 Sophomores, 25 starts in 9 games.
1964: 29 Juniors, 29 starts in 10 games.
1965: 27 Seniors, 46 offensive and 50 defensive starts in 10 games.
1966: 5 Seniors, 14 offensive and 23 defensive starts in 10 games.
16 players made 187 starts, for a man-game ratio of .3535
25 players played for all 3 years of their eligibility
William Yearby, T, 1964&1965
Jack Clancy, E, 1966
Jack Clancy, WR, Miami Dolphins, 1966
Thomas Mack, G, Los Angeles Rams, 1966
Steve Smith, OT, San Francisco 49ers, 1966
William Yearby, DE, New York Jets, 1966
Class Score: .4710
1963: 48 Freshmen
1964: 28 Sophomores, 18 starts in 10 games.
1965: 27 Juniors, 47 offensive and 45 defensive starts in 10 games.
1966: 25 Seniors, 54 offensive and 33 defensive starts in 10 games.
1967: 2 Seniors
17 players made 197 starts, for a man-game ratio of .2814
24 players played for all 3 years of their eligibility
Richard Volk, DHB, 1966
Mike Bass, DB, Green Bay Packers, 1967
Jim Detwiler, , Baltimore Colts, 1967
Frank Nunley, LB, San Francisco 49ers, 1967
John Rowser, DB, Green Bay Packers, 1967
Rick Volk, DB, Baltimore Colts, 1967
Carl Ward, DB, Cleveland Browns, 1967
Class Score: .3688
1964: 53 Freshmen
1965: 28 Sophomores, 18 offensive and 15 defensive starts in 10 games.
1966: 24 Juniors, 26 offensive and 28 defensive starts in 10 games.
1967: 21 Seniors, 39 offensive and 52 defensive starts in 10 games.
11 players made 189 starts, for a man-game ratio of .2625
20 players played for all 3 years of their eligibility
David Porter, , Cleveland Browns, 1968
Ray Philips, , New Orleans Saints, 1968
Rocky Rosema, LB, St. Louis Cardinals, 1968
Class Score: .2945
1965: 55 Freshmen
1966: 31 Sophomores, 15 offensive and 16 defensive starts in 10 games.
1967: 24 Juniors, 35 offensive and 23 defensive starts in 10 games.
1968: 22 Seniors, 41 offensive and 33 defensive starts in 10 games.
1969: 1 Senior, 9 offensive starts in 11 games.
12 players made 172 starts, for a man-game ratio of .2522
21 players played for all 3 years of their eligibility
Ronald Johnson, HB, 1968
Ronald Johnson, RB, Cleveland Browns, 1968
Tom Stincic, LB, Dallas Cowboys, 1968
George Hoey, DB, Detroit Lions, 1968
Class Score: .3093
1966: 50 Freshmen
1967: 30 Sophomores, 23 offensive and 25 defensive starts in 10 games.
1968: 33 Juniors, 40 offensive and 34 defensive starts in 10 games.
1969: 26 Seniors, 43 offensive and 44 defensive starts in 11 games.
1970: 3 Seniors, 2 offensive and 6 defensive starts in 10 games.
14 players made 217 starts, for a man-game ratio of .2924
22 players played for all 3 years of their eligibility
Thomas Curtis, S, 1969
James Mandich, E, 1969
Brian Healy, , Minnesota Vikings, 1970
Thomas Curtis, DB, Baltimore Colts, 1970
Garvie Craw, , Boston Patriots, 1970
Barry Pierson, , St. Louis Cardinals, 1970
Cecil Pryor, , Green Bay Packers, 1970
James Mandich, TE, Miami Dolphins, 1970
Class Score: .4046
1967: 36 Freshmen
1968: 23 Sophomores, 13 offensive and 20 defensive starts in 10 games.
1969: 17 Juniors, 39 offensive and 32 defensive starts in 11 games.
1970: 16 Seniors, 32 offensive and 34 defensive starts in 10 games.
1971: 1 Senior
11 players made 170 starts, for a man-game ratio of .2408
16 players played for all 3 years of their eligibility
Dan Dierdorf, T, 1970
Marty Huff, LB, 1970
Jack Harpring, , New York Jets, 1971
Jim Betts, , New York Jets, 1971
Don Moorhead, , New Orleans Saints, 1971
Marty Huff, LB, San Francisco 49ers, 1971
Pete Newell, , Detroit Lions, 1971
Dan Dierdorf, T, St. Louis Cardinals, 1971
Class Score: .3524
1968: 52 Freshmen
1969: 28 Sophomores, 24 offensive and 34 defensive starts in 11 games.
1970: 26 Juniors, 58 offensive and 56 defensive starts in 10 games.
1971: 21 Seniors, 81 offensive and 86 defensive starts in 12 games.
1972: 3 Seniors, 22 offensive starts in 11 games.
17 players made 361 starts, for a man-game ratio of .4826
21 players played for all 3 years of their eligibility
Thomas Darden, DB, 1971
Reggie McKenzie, OG, 1971
William Taylor, HB, 1971
Mike Taylor, LB, 1971
Paul Seymour, OT, 1972
Paul Seymour, TE, Buffalo Bills, 1973
Fred Grambau, , Kansas City Chiefs, 1973
Thomas Darden, DB, Cleveland Browns, 1972
Mike Taylor, LB, New York Jets, 1972
Reggie McKenzie, G, Buffalo Bills, 1972
Glen Doughty WR, Baltimore Colts, 1972
Tom Beckman, DE, St. Louis Cardinals, 1972
Mike Keller, LB, Dallas Cowboys, 1972
William Taylor, , Atlanta Falcons, 1972
Mike Oldham, , Washington Redskins, 1972
Guy Murdock, C, Houston Oilers, 1972
John Seyferth, , New York Giants, 1972
Class Score: .7297
1969: 36 Freshmen
1970: 23 Sophomores, 8 offensive and 4 defensive starts in 10 games.
1971: 19 Juniors, 36 offensive and 35 defensive starts in 12 games.
1972: 16 Seniors, 44 offensive and 47 defensive starts in 11 games.
1973: 3 Seniors, 10 offensive starts in 11 games.
15 players made 184 starts, for a man-game ratio of .2323
15 players played for all 3 years of their eligibility
Randy Logan, DB, 1972
James Coode, , Atlanta Falcons, 1974
Larry Cipa, QB, New Orleans Saints, 1974
Randy Logan, DB, Philadelphia Eagles, 1973
Bo Rather, WR, Miami Dolphins, 1973
Clinton Spearman, , Los Angeles Rams, 1973
Bill Hart, , Chicago Bears, 1973
Class Score: .3188
In order, the scoring of Bump Elliot’s classes is as follows:
Bump had 193 of 501 Freshman players use their full eligibility, 16 All-Americans and, 49 Drafted Players. His best recruiting class saw 5 (!!) All-Americans (1968), though they were awarded under Bo.
Tune in next time for an analysis of Bo’s classes, and their placement in the rankings.
Here's a preliminary analysis, using a fitting class to start with - Oosterbaan's last, which was in a situation comparable to Lloyd's last class. In similar fashion to Lloyd Carr, Oosterbaan won a National Championship (1948) and a Rose Bowl (1950) early in his coaching career, and his success dwindled slowly until he resigned in 1958. It's obvious that Oosterbaan was working off of the recruits from Crisler's last classes when he won both his Championship and his Rose Bowl, which happened in his first 3 seasons as head coach. After 1950, he did not win even a conference title.
Here's a breakdown of Oosterbaan's last class: (Taken from Bentley Historical Library)
1959: 55 Freshmen, 0 with numbers assigned. 4-5 Record
1960: 32 Sophomores, 20 with numbers assigned. 5-4 Record2 Starters: Glinka (QB, 3); Raimey (RHB, 3) - 6 Man-Games Started of 99 Man-Games - 6.09%
1961: 20 Juniors, 18 with numbers assigned. 6-3 Record
5 Starters: Houtman (LT, 6); Minko (LG, 6); O'Donnel (RG, 1); Glinka (QB, 2); Raimey (RHB, 9) - 24 Man-Games Started of 99 Man-Games - 24.24%
1962: 10 Graduating Seniors, 7 Juniors. 2-7 Record
10 Starters: Houtman (LT, 1); Minko (LG, 9); Szymanski (C, 1); O'Donnell (RT, 9); Kocan (RE, 3); Ward (RE, 1); Chandler (QB, 2); Glinka (QB, 1); Strobel (LHB, 3); Raimey (RHB, 4) - 34 Man-Games Started of 99 Man-Games - 34.34%
1963: 4 Graduating Seniors. 3-4-2 Record
2 Starters: Houtman (RT, 1); O'Donnell (LG, 9) - 10 Man-Games Started of 99 Man-Games - 10.10%
Out of 11 Positions, 9 Games, 3 Years (297 Man-Games Played), The Class of 1959 started 74 Man-Games, or 24.9% of the possible Man-Games. This is low, if you take it that there were only 3 classes that could possibly play in those 3 years (Each class should play 33% of the Man-Games). If you consider the last year as an additional class, 24.9% is spot-on.
This implies that only 4 players out of a class of 55 completed 4 years of playing time, using the entirety of their eligibility, since it appears no freshmen played in 1959 (no numbers assigned). Also, this implies that Bump started off as a terrible recruiter, as shown by the absolute collapse when the last class he did not have anything to do with graduated. None of these guys were All-American Caliber.
For posterity's sake, here are the numbers from Lloyd's last class (Freshmen in 08) so far: (Taken from MGoBlue.com)
2008: 25 Freshmen, 10 of which saw playing time. 3-9 Record
2009: Lost 3 to Transfer, 9 Sophomores, 17 Redshirt Freshmen
RichRod must have had 4 kids come out of the woodwork somewhere.
This isn't as far as I intend to go with this. I would like to see just how much information I can pull out to show attrition relative to how good a season is, and how well each of our past coaches recruited, beginning with Bump and ending with Carr. As I go on, I will have clumped diary entries for each coach, showing the progress of each of their classes. I chose to begin with Oosterbaan's last because this is the 50th anniversary of that class, and prior to Bo's era, football did not mean as much to your average kid planning on heading to college, as there was no real big money career at the end of the line.