you mean Jason Kapsner. IIRC he was the 2 pro rated qb in his class. Def didn't pan out.
spoiler alert: i linked this
Brian, in the comments, says it is not irrational to panic, given that we desperately need better quarterbacking and each option is like "a lottery ticket," so we need more of them. Now, I generally agree with Brian on most Panic or Don't Panic decisions, but here I'm going to come down on the Don't Panic side.
1. We only want people who want to be here. Remember last signing day with McGuffie saying he was going with his head instead of his heart? How did that work out?
2. A corollary to #1 would be: Better Now Than Later. There is a month and a half (minus dead periods) to get a replacement.
3. A replacement is quite possible. I don't know if it is realistic to expect one of the 4 stars left out there to switch, but a high-3 star "lottery ticket" would be fine.
4. He (probably) wasn't going to start anyway. It's true that Forcier could turn out to be mediocre, or break his leg. And Threet might not make the normal HUGE first year to second year of starting jump. Or break his leg. But chances are pretty high those weren't both going to happen. Yes, Troy Smith turned out to be better than Justin Zwick. But Zwick wasn't bad, and they weren't going to go 3-9. At this point, I think most of us are hoping for someone decent enough to sweep through 3 MAC teams, ND at home, and the weakest half of the Big 10 next year... = 8-4.
5. Although recruits are lottery tickets, in fact there is very little history at Michigan of big name QB recruits (I would include Threet and Forcier in this, plus, again, the excellent chance of another signee) crapping out. Maybe Beaver would have been marginally better than Threet and Forcier. But both crapping out? I can't think of this happening. I'll try to list big-name Michigan QB recruits in the last 12 years or so and see what we can find. Please correct my memory:
Tom Brady (Phil Steele composite rating, something like #25 QB): Umm, not crappy
Jason Kapsner (PS 7?): Never saw the field, seemed like a numbers game
Drew Henson (PS 1 or 2): Starter
John Navarre (PS 30-ish?): Pushes the edge of "big name recruit"; was 3.33 year starter anyway
Andy Mignery (PS 20s or 30s?): Crapped out, switched to TE
Matt Gutierrez (PS 10 or so): Was due to start, injured, beat out by Henne, would have been good
Chad Henne (PS 1): 4 year Starter
Ryan Mallett (PS 1): Started as true frosh, turnover prone and bad inter-personal skills, but will probably be good
Steven Threet (PS 26): Hot and cold as rFr. starter, but that is quite normal; should be a decent starter at least, although not ideal for this system
Coner (PS 40) and Jason Forcier (PS 42) are beyond my definition of big-time recruit. Clayton Richard was highly ranked, but chose baseball.
So, only Mignery (and he was very close to Cone in terms of hype, below Tate Forcier and Threet) came to campus and seemed like a waste of scholarship. Kapsner never did anything, but the reports were that he was competitive for a starting spot. Maybe there's one or two guys I'm forgetting who disappeared, but it seems at least 2/3 of guys who are 4-star quality turn out to be viable college starting quarterbacks.
you mean Jason Kapsner. IIRC he was the 2 pro rated qb in his class. Def didn't pan out.
but I disagree. Kapsner was portrayed as being neck-and-neck with Brady and Henson, and was thought of as someone who could go to the pros despite not playing in college, like Gutierrez or Cassel. I am not including "got beaten out by extremely good competition" as meaning a QB turned out to be a bust.
I appreciate your argument, but I don't think that the reasons are quite accurate.
For example, #1 misses the point. We do want people who don't want to be here. We just want those same people to want to be here. The concern is not whether Beaver really wanted to be here or not, but *why* he doesn't. People are panicking not simply because a good player doesn't want to be here, but because a player who wanted to be here at one point, inexplicably changed his mind, and is one of many such players to do so this off-season.
Your second and third points essentially go to the same issue: replacements. While I agree that we will probably be able to replace Beaver (I'm quite hoping that we swing Eugene Smith from WVU), I think we need to be careful about using Rivals or Scout star ratings as a benchmark of substitutability. The Michigan staff made an offer to Beaver quite early. We have to believe that they saw something in him that they liked more than other similarly-ranked players who didn't receive offers at the same time. While it is possible that the difference between someone like Beaver and someone like Smith might not be much, the mere fact that the staff wanted the former more than the latter gives me pause in thinking that a replacement will make things okay.
I tend to think that your fourth point is just mistaken. The consensus on this board is that Forcier is better, but I think most Michigan fans are inclined to believe that because we are all still so used to evaluating QBs on their passing ability. If we look at the type of players that the staff has been recruiting for the position, we see that Forcier and Threet are the misfits. Last year, Coach Rod wanted Terrell Pryor and BJ Daniels. When he lost out on both, he settled for Justin Feagin. This year, he began with Russell Shepherd, then moved on to Kevin Newsome and Beaver. Eugene Smith and Tate Forcier were in the picture as replacements. The pattern here seems clear: Coach Rod wants a runner first; passing comes second. He's recruiting for a Pat White type, and the best we've managed is a Matt Grothe. My personal opinion was that Beaver was most likely to win the starting job for this very reason.
Finally, I think point #5 i just inapplicable because it is evaluating the scouting and development ability of a previous staff while recruiting a different style of player. Your info doesn't show that top QBs are unlikely to bust, only that the type of QBs that Lloyd's staff recruited are unlikely to bust.
All in all, I appreciate the point of your post. I'd like us all to be able to calm down a little. But I don't think the reasons you list are convincing for that purpose.
I think there is legitimate concern here. I frankly do not understand how a combination of the Michigan name and a coach known as a spread whiz are not doing better attracting and keeping top level dual threat QB talent. Chally IMO has it exactly right--Forcier was a backup choice to the staff (not to say he isn't a legit recruit with potential goodness but still). I don;t know the answer, but I'm starting to be concerned that there is something in the water...
Regarding #1: Clearly given his decision, Beaver's #1 priority is near-guaranteed playing time. If he simply didn't like Michigan because of something RichRod did or said, he must have had other offers from Top 25 type teams (and I think part of The Panic is the thought that the decommits indicate some hidden flaw in Rodriguez's appeal to recruits). We can all create fantasy recruits who love Michigan regardless and fill out a 25 man class, but in reality most recruits have a mix of reasons why they like Michigan and some they don't, and if the con- reasons come to the forefront, they transfer later on. Better to know that now than in August when Beaver gets told he is 3rd string and leaves.
Regarding #5, yes, it is different than Lloyd's system, and if I had more time and effort I would do a complete breakdown of the Top 20-30 QB recruits for the 1995-2005 period, but this was just an attempt to answer the question "how many QB recruits turn out to be unplayable?" While half of NFL 1st round QBs turn out badly, I'm positing that the high school to college move, nowadays, is less dramatic and something like 3/4 of QBs turn out to be for real. And, I am more optimistic than most about Threet. I think last year was roughly like Navarre 2000 or 2001, and if we could now have Navarre 2002 and an 8-4 season, we could live with that.
Current Mood: Panicking
For those of you who are hoping for a savior, I'd like to dim your enthusiasm. Navy's QB(yeah, I watched that dumb game today)is a SENIOR who is listed at 5"11, 194 lbs. He was probably Forcier's size coming out of HS. No way was he(or Forcier for that matter)ready to QB Navy his freshman year.
We are probably two seasons away from Forcier(if even he is the real deal)taking the reins. Beaver wouldn't have made a difference, at least not this season. Playing true freshmen in key positions at this level will result in disaster, or injury, or both.
Had Michigan had the luxury of having more upper-classmen, McGuffie could have been red-shirted, and started playing in 2010, when he would have been a third year sophomore. Then he could have bulked up in weight from 180 to maybe 205.
We are stuck with Threet as the QB for the time-being. Deal with it.
You mean to tell me that we won't win the mythical national championship in 2009?
What happens if they stop playing football after that?
Me and the chimps is heading to da jungle.
is that it is based on an old regime's ability to turn every quarterback into an NFL starter. I don't think that's going to be the case anymore. Not to say that Forcier won't be successful or anything else, but I think the days of taking pro-style prospects and turning them into pro-bowl quality (laser, rocket) arms may be over.
Beaver was supposed to be the better runner? Correct? Forcier's running seems to be more of a "fast for a QB" type of speed. Busted plays, etc. Not really the Pat White type. I hate to be pessimistic, but eventually only hearing bad news may have changed my views as a fan.
I would take Colt McCoy over Pat White. If you don't get it, that would be Forcier and Beaver.
I really don't want a Pat White clone - great runner/bad passer.
I'd much rather have a QB who is decent runner/really good passer.
Also note that Ricardo Miller indicated that Beaver said that "he didn’t feel like he fit in, and he was overwhelmed by the crowd at the game." I would prefer a guy that will be poised under pressure, and feed off of a crowd, not get spooked by it.
Not to mention, it would be (is?) a shame to have talented receivers and not be able to get them the ball. Threet was almost able to make the system work, and he is not much of a threat to run, and is a marginal threat to pass. Forcier is supposed to be a very accurate passer, and capable of making plays with his feet, making him a big upgrade from Threet in both areas (although I hope that Threet makes significant offseason progress).
We were only a few plays away from being 6-6 during this transition season (Utah, Toledo, NW), so it shouldn't require a lot of improvement to achieve a decent record in 2009. Throw in anything other than the worst Michigan defense ever, and I think that we can get there with Threet, Forcier or Beaver's replacement.
was that he had a year of eligibility left but chose to not use it (he'd graduated) and get on his with life. I think he might have been getting married as well. Anyhow, that final year of eligibility was 2000. After not being able to beat out Henson, he probably would have started the first 4 games of that year while Henson was out with injury.