Donovan Warren made the right choice

Submitted by UMaD on
When Donovan Warren declared for the NFL draft many assumed he would be taken somewhere in the first 3 rounds. After displaying disappointing athleticism and speed at the NFL combine his stock has dropped, at least in the eyes of some analysts. There have been a variety of reactions to this development, with most tending towards “he made a mistake”, “how sad for him”, and “is it too late to come back to Michigan?” This line of thinking makes no sense to me.

The implicit assumption is that Warren would have been better off had he returned for his senior season. But is that true?

Returning for a senior season brings a lot of risks to it, most notably the possibility of a major injury. It also includes a significant opportunity cost by missing a season of potential earnings in the NFL. Furthermore, the NFL may be implementing salary restrictions on rookies beginning in 2011 that further hinder his potential earnings.

The potential gains for returning for one more year are:
  1. Another year of college life / experience
  2. Diploma
  3. Potential improved draft stock  
Reason 1 is a big deal to some people and a number of athletes (including Chris Webber) have expressed regret about leaving college life behind. OTOH, some kids hate putting up with school or for some other reason are ready to move on (e.g. don’t get along with college coach, family financial need). Warren didn’t seem to love school THAT much, so we can probably dismiss this issue in his case.

Reason 2 is often cited for guys that turn pro early, but its not like Warren is forever locked out of getting a college degree. If he wants a diploma he can still get one. Assuming he’s approaching graduation, he’d be able to go back to school easily after football (especially considering the money he’ll be making as a pro football player for at least the next few years. The signing bonus alone will cover it). In short, Plan B is still Plan B if football doesn’t work out. It’s just a few months further off. And he’ll probably get more out of school when not spending 40 hours a week on football.

Reason 3 is where the debate really begins. Some players do have a lot to gain by performing well in the their senior seasons, particularly if they can make it into Round 1. However, Donovan has already proven to be a very good college player. Coming back for another season wouldn't make a major change in perceptions about him in that regard. The reason he is (reportedly) falling in the eyes of evaluators is his 40 time. No matter how much magic you want to attribute to Barwis, there isn’t much he can do to change speed and considering Warren has been around for 2 years of Barwis, he’s probably progressed as far as he can.

As a result, Warren’s draft stock won’t be significantly different in 2011. You can argue that improved play would have bumped up his stock, but it might have done just as much to hinder it if he didn’t play any better or played worse. It’s a gamble, especially when you consider he’d be a year older and therefore viewed as having diminished “upside”.

The bottom line is that Warren considers himself an NFL player (and most talent evaluators agree); he'll be drafted and have a chance to prove himself as a professional. If hes not good enough, he'll be cut whether he's a 2nd round pick or a 5th round pick. It really doesn't make a huge difference. The pay differential from his rookie contract is offset by an additional season of playing football professionally (look at the differences between lower 2nd round picks to 3rd and 4th round guys - http://www.macsfootballblog.com/2009/05/2009-nfl-rookie-signing-status-team-by.html - they generally aren’t that huge)

Warren didn't make a mistake. Most guys who are drafted are not making a mistake when they turn pro. The decision is the correct one when all the costs and benefits are factored in for most. The decision is only a mistake is if you’re immediately cut and never earn a penny as a pro football player or are really enjoying life as a collegiate athlete and will miss it more than you’ll appreciate the money you’ll earn as a pro.

While we as fans may have desperately wanted Warren to return for the sake of Michigan football, he made the right decision for himself. He's going to make a lot of money compared to most of us in a very short time frame.  I wish him nothing but the best.  Go Blue!

EDIT: Fixed spelling error and link

Comments

jg2112

March 24th, 2010 at 8:41 PM ^

As to point 1, any evidence Warren didn't like school or is this just speculation?

As to point 2, you're talking about Michigan here. We have documented proof he didn't practice more than 20 hours, 20 minutes per week.

As to point 3, had Warren been the star of a resurgent Michigan defense and played a good Rose Bowl, you don't think he'd get ranked higher? C'mon.

DONOVAN, not Donavan, Warren is gone. Best of luck to him.

TrppWlbrnID

March 25th, 2010 at 8:48 AM ^

you mean you didn't check out warren's LHRSAvg "lecture hall row seating average"? it was 30.2 meaning he sat way in the back and didn't participate in class.

his AED (accumulated earliness distribution) numbers were regularly in the negatives, sometimes up to -6, meaning he was always late. guys who love going to class regularly post +7s and +8s, early every time.

the guy just didn't like school and the numbers bear it out!

FabFiver5

March 25th, 2010 at 10:22 AM ^

According to Mike Martin when I last talked to him at Christmastime (his family is friends with my family), Donovan was truly unhappy with the current defensive staff.

He voiced on several occasions to Mike that he liked the DB coaches under Lloyd much more and didn't feel he was getting proper coaching now.

I can't say that he didn't like the academic side of school, but I can speak to what Mike told me.

jblaze

March 24th, 2010 at 8:43 PM ^

it seems like Warren is being judged by his 40 time. This will make the difference between a 2-3 round and 5-6th round pick. That is not likely to improve by playing 1 more year. It is likely to improve practicing for the 40 yard dash.

Thunder71

March 24th, 2010 at 8:45 PM ^

well-informed, well articulated, and some good points.

It was still a mistake, though, ime.

Football is a sport where each and every year, incremental improvement occurs (except for the Obi Ezeh's of the world, but he still has time)

Donovan would have been a better football player if he came back, and likely a higher pick. Why miss your senior year if nothing is guaranteed?

UMaD

March 25th, 2010 at 10:57 AM ^

and probably, though not certainly, raised his draft stock to some degree. I'm arguing the rise in draft stock wouldn't have made a great deal of difference (in salary or liklihood of gettting cut.) Given that, why risk injury and give up a year of earnings to come back to Michigan unless you really love college life?

blueloosh

March 24th, 2010 at 9:03 PM ^

I disagree that "Donavan has already proven to be a very good college player." I'm not sure he did. Most scouting reviews were mixed or unimpressed. His best showing is 2nd team all Big 10. He did not have a great 2009, and a horrible team season has the opposite effect of a stellar one (which is a tide that raises all ships).

Your statement about salary restrictions next year is correct. Donavan Warren is not the only person aware of that fact, though, and it has brought a horde of early entrants, many better than Warren, who will push down his relative stock further. In fact, there may be a thinner talent stash next year for exactly this reason, making it a year when the group of seniors in the draft pool is heavily depleted and players will be taken earlier than they otherwise would have. Now it may be that salary restrictions are so drastic that being taken in the 2/3rd round next year would get you less money than the 5/6th this year, but I doubt it.

There is no guarantee that staying for his SR year would have had a Leon Hall effect. But there is also no guarantee that Warren does not wind up another Earnest Shazor.

skunk bear

March 24th, 2010 at 9:04 PM ^

I would want to become the best player I could be before I had to try to make the NFL.

If Warren fails to make the NFL this year, chances are Warren never makes it. By playing as a senior Warren gives himself the best chance of making it when the time finally comes.

I think this is the most important consideration.

UMaD

March 25th, 2010 at 10:55 AM ^

...I agree it will be a mistake. As a potential 3-5 round pick its unlikely he'll be cut. Furthermore, theres no great reason to think the situation would be substantially different in '11. The situation you are talking about applies to 2nd day / borderline guys who aren't sure they'll be drafted at all.

bronxblue

March 24th, 2010 at 9:16 PM ^

Nice post, and I agree with the idea that Warren might as well give it a shot on the NFL stage if he doesn't feel that he'll improve much next year. What I will say, though, is that all the talk about 40-yard-time seems like a bit of a smokescreen. By all accounts he has been hurt during these timed runs, and I wouldn't be surprised if he ran a better time at the UM pro day. That said, scouts and draft experts look beyond just the 40-time and consider the player's entire career and his potential moving forward. With players from less prestigious programs or other divisions, tangible numbers like 40-yard times, shuttle drills, and bench press mean more because the stats were accumulated against "inferior" competition. But Warren played DB at the University of Michigan and matched up against some of the best players in the country almost every weekend.

So what he did during his career can fairly accurately be judged on its merits, and unfortunately for Warren his performance was largely "meh" against the better teams. He never showed the top speed you need to be a great corner in the NFL, and he lacks the size to be a top safety against the run. He certainly has the skills to be a good pro who can find playing time in the Nickle and Dime formations and maybe on special teams, but beyond that I'm not sure he'll ever grow into that elite cover corner that people first envisioned when he enter UM. Maybe another year wouldn't make a difference, but I guess we'll never know. Hopefully Warren can follow in Marlin Jackson's shoes and find a nice role in the NFL, but I don't think that his 40-yard time before some scouts will play that great a role in how his career pans out. I wish him the best, though.

Blue_Bull_Run

March 24th, 2010 at 10:27 PM ^

I think you're right on this one. If his college resume had been highly impressive, then the 40 time wouldn't be the end all be all.

Just look at Manningham - he was clearly 1st round talent, with issues of inconsistency and a poor 40 time (and the pot issue, to boot). Yet, he "only" fell to the third round. I think that's evidence that scouts are willing to look past the 40 time.

Now, in Manningham's case the issue appeared to be poor technique on the 40. Donovan might just be a slower dude, and maybe he can't improve on his 40 time.

However, his bench was relatively poor, too, by NFL standards.

Combine his 40 time, his bench, and his body of work in college, and I think scouts just aren't blown away. I'm sure some team will pick him up around round 4-5 on the premise that they can coach him up; however, I'm part of the crowd that thinks he could have earned himself some better money by being "NFL ready" prior to entering the draft.

SysMark

March 24th, 2010 at 9:37 PM ^

If you want a perfect example of how returning for a senior season can dramatically improve your draft status please take a look at one Brandon Graham.

He didn't look all that much different status wise before last year than Warren does now. Any pro scout/coach will tell you that last year can make a huge difference.

Regardless of the cap/no-cap situation the difference between Rounds 1-2 and Rounds 3-5 is huge over a 4-5 year contract, not only with the money but the ability to make a roster and get on the field in the NFL.

UMaD

March 25th, 2010 at 9:51 AM ^

Although we can't know where BG would have gone in '09, I probably agree with you. His play put him into the middle of the 1st round, where contracts ARE significantly better.

I'd argue, with his 40 time being what it is Warren doesn't have a very good chance of ever reaching a mid-1st draft slot like some thought he might.

As for the drop off in rounds 2 vs 3-5, its really not that big, as I covered in another comment.

Blue in Seattle

March 25th, 2010 at 11:06 AM ^

But I agree with this comparison. The football world is driven by TV. I'm sure Brandon improved from Junior to Senior year, but what propelled him his Senior year was being the constant statement player on the defense.

That tackle against Michigan State, where Brandon seemed to appear from nowhere in the backfield and with no visible momentum upended the full speed running back is burned into my brain.

It was on the ESPN highlight reels, etc.

I think you still have to nail the NFL combine, which Brandon did, but senior year for me is more about the TV guys focusing on the player. It's just harder to get noticed as a younger player unless you are truly dominating from the beginning, or you're a QB.

Donovan coming back for his senior season would have been mentioned at the beginning of every game.

That said, I think the contract change, and the extra year of being on a "rebuilding" team were the big considerations. Many times I've heard players comment how hard it is to stay motivated when the team isn't winning. Donovan was one of the last players who tasted the previous glory, and knew that he would not be around to collect on the rebuilding effort.

As long as he gets a contract, I think he made the correct call. It's possible his earning could have collected another 1-2 Million even after a thorough analysis of time deferred earnings, etc.

But when your paycheck is "scholarship" and then it's Millions per year, it's hard to justify or even tangibly comprehend the loss of the "future incremental earning" you might have had if you had waited.

I wouldn't have waited. As long as he's drafted somewhere and ends up with a contract, he made the right call.

PhillipFulmersPants

March 24th, 2010 at 9:43 PM ^

interesting to some analysis on the "extra year of earning" for early entrants to the league. I would assume they're likely on average to have somewhat greater longevity in the league than a 4-year college player. Yet considering the average NFL career is only something like 3.5 years, bumping that a whole year to 4.5 (i.e., a nearly a 29% longer career) seems a stretch.

From a pure investment strategy (and obviously this is hypothetical because the NFL isn't drafting Warren Buffets), a player would have to weigh an extra year of having his money in some kind of investment vehicle versus delaying it for 12 months for a potentially higher signing bonus and thus greater Year 1 baseline investment. Any money managers out there? I would assume it may be worth the risk to wait for #2 if the investment horizon is long-term? It seems even a marginal increase (10% - 15%) in signing bonus money Year 2 might make up the gap for the "lost" Year 1.

Zone Left

March 24th, 2010 at 9:50 PM ^

Nice argument, but I have to wonder if he put forth the effort after the season ended that most top picks do. I have no idea either way, but if I remember right, he was surprisingly weak at the bench too. Maybe just putting in better pre-draft work could have changed his stock. Kind of like a less disgusting version of OMG shirtless Andre Smith at Alabama.

Zone Left

March 25th, 2010 at 10:12 PM ^

I think the bench weakness may have been symptomatic of a general failure to prepare on his part. A lot of the 40 is technique, and probably is how the fastest players shave that last tenth off. A 4.5 or 4.48 would have looked a lot better, and may have been achievable.

energyblue1

March 24th, 2010 at 10:30 PM ^

It is too late for him to return and now everyday he is working for his pay. Thus showing up at workouts and the combine with avg or poor performances did nothing to help his earnings potential.

Also, returning for his sr yr would not have helped any if he didn't put the offseason work in, have a better sr yr and then make sure he was ready for all the same stuff next yr....so with him not being ready this yr, why would next yr be different....

Warren last yr was very good early on, thru the iowa game and tailed off. But even he was prone to the big 1st down reception that killed the defense last yr....

allezbleu

March 24th, 2010 at 10:41 PM ^

but you don't think a year of game film when the entire defense isn't an embarrassment and he could have made a ton of plays wouldn't have helped his stock?

your stock is judged by play during games and verified through physical measurements. he could have vastly improved on the former.

with his talent he really should be at least a second rounder. if he gets drafted any lower he will have made a mistake - not for us, but for him.

UMaD

March 25th, 2010 at 9:47 AM ^

Warren has shown what he can do individually on a football field already. Theres no question playing way better his senior year would have moved him up...but how much? Its no sure thing he would have played much better this season.

Again, the issue here is not that he is a good player, its that he has physical limitations for an NFL DB. The issue that (presumably) drops him from being a 2nd rounder to a 4th or 5th will still hinder him next year, even if by virtue of on-field play he bumps himself up into the 1st round, his 40 time will still hurt him.

His POTENTIAL gain is way smaller than what he stands to lose.

michiganfanforlife

March 24th, 2010 at 11:42 PM ^

how his draft status would/wouldn't have changed. If they do implement a rookie wage scale, it will only drastically effect the first round picks, so this argument doesn't really hold water. I think in the end, the Bengals will draft him in the 5th round. They love Leon Hall, and took Morgan Trent last year. Morgan made the team and earned an NFL contract, and I bet Donovan will do the same. It's really hard to tell a teenager that they need to be a poor college student for just 12 more months when there is a hundred thousand dollar carrot dangling out there.

SysMark

March 24th, 2010 at 11:58 PM ^

"he'll be cut whether he's a 2nd round pick or a 5th round pick. It really doesn't make a huge difference"

- unfortunately not so in the NFL - being a second round pick you have vastly improved chances of making a cut - that is simply the economics of the situation - they have paid you more money to sign and they are much more likely to keep you over a 5th round pick who has performed marginally better.

As of today the NFL still operates under a salary cap and your draft position has a significant impact on your ability to make a roster.

UMaD

March 25th, 2010 at 9:43 AM ^

You have a point, but money isn't as big of an issue as you imply. For example, below are the Colts' picks in Round 2 through 6. The difference in salary is far from enormous. The 1st round guys do get paid a ton more but if you're in the mid 2nd round there really isn't a huge enough difference in financial commitment to substantially make a roster decision.

2.56 - DT, Fili Moala, USC - Signed - 4-years, $2.89M ($1.14M signing bonus)
3.92 - CB, Jerraud Powers, Auburn - Signed - 4-years, $2.428M ($678,500 signing bonus)
4.127 - WR, Austin Collie, BYU - Signed - 4-years, $2.187M ($437,555 signing bonus)
4.136 - DT, Terrance Taylor, Michigan - Signed - 4-years, $2.149M ($399,250 signing bonus)
6.201 - QB, Curtis Painter, Purdue - Signed - 4-years, $1.843M ($93,285 signing bonus)

(from: http://www.macsfootballblog.com/2009/05/2009-nfl-rookie-signing-status-… )

High draft picks do get cut in the NFL, though not frequently. The reason an equivalent talent wouldn't be cut as a 2nd rounder (compared to a 5th) would be more about public perception and the presumed potential of future development than about finances.

Maize and Blue…

March 25th, 2010 at 12:33 PM ^

There are no guaranteed contracts in the NFL. The only thing of concern is the signing bonus and how many years it is sprread out over. If you are out performed by a fifth rounder odds are that the signing bonus isn't that big of an obstacle for you to avoid being cut.

SysMark

March 26th, 2010 at 8:40 AM ^

I would agree with you on that. For a 2 vs. 5 it is less than the money than the natural bias that comes with having drafted the player in Round 2. They believe he is a 2nd Rounder and will be likely to stay with him longer. Doesn't mean the 5th round guy can't beat him out but he has a steeper climb.

Regardless, your point is well taken.

Hoken's Heroes

March 25th, 2010 at 1:22 AM ^

Some say he wasn't and that's why he wanted to leave early. "Irregardless" --as Coach Rod likes to say-- he's gone and it's time to move on. Hopefully DW will have a long and prosperous NFL career.

Rasmus

March 25th, 2010 at 7:57 AM ^

playing time under pressure in games -- that would really have been the only major advantage to staying. Working out and practicing for a year while sitting on the bench during games in the NFL is not the same. But DW started as a freshman, so he's already got more game experience than most -- it's hard to argue that another year would have helped him all that much.

That said, I think a second year under the same DC might have helped him shine in his senior year (he had a different DC each of his three years at Michigan) and improved his draft status, the combine be damned.

On the plus side for Michigan, the 2011 team will have one more year of game experience at cornerback than it would have if Donovan had stayed.

Six Zero

March 25th, 2010 at 8:14 AM ^

Donovan has his entire life to be an NFL player. But you can only be a Michigan Wolverine for four years, five if you redshirt.

I don't know the guy and can't presume to know what he thinks, at least outside of all things Olive Garden, but 20 years from now I think he'll still be wondering what might have been different if he stayed for the senior year.

UMaD

March 25th, 2010 at 11:02 AM ^

he just can't play on the football team again. NFL careers are very short on average and football is a physically demanding game. Donovan has a short window of opportunity, not "the rest of his life".

Nothing will be different for Donovan unless he makes really bad decisions and turns out to be a total NFL bust who throws away his money. And even then, who is to say things would be different with a UM degree...

maizenbluenc

March 25th, 2010 at 3:10 PM ^

I still think Donovan's decision was sealed when he looked at the replay of that kick-off coverage collision he had. When he saw his knee bend backwards, and then thought about Sam Bradford coming back only to be injured .... that's a huge risk.

Then there is a risk not mentioned here. Michigan's D is still a "development project" this season. Even if Donovan stayed healthy and continued to shine as a defensive leader, if our defense continued to struggle his stock would not go up much. (IMO the Florida win saved a lot of guys' bacon from the 2007 team - coaches and players alike.)

If you couple those risks, with the salary cap risk, and then compare them with leaving an additional year of salary on the table, and the chances of his draft stock rising based on a faster 40 time from one more year of Barwiscizing and an improved overall image of Michigan's defense ... well lets just say I agree with the OP, and with Donovan's decision.

backusduo

March 25th, 2010 at 9:33 AM ^

I think the thing he will miss is the leadership opportunity that being a Senior gives you. There is a certain swagger that we see Seniors pick up every year as they drive the younger generation and get to that time in their career where they have to be more then a talent, but actually the leader. When it is your senior year, every push up means a little more, every practice is closer to your last, every loss hurts a little more, and I think the combination of those things with their responsibility of being an example helps prepare kids to go to the next level. Will he fail because he didn't get a Senior year. No probably not, but I do see value for those who stay. There is more than one way to be a Champion.

ommeethatsees

March 25th, 2010 at 12:48 PM ^

I don't necessarily agree with your number three assessment. I think Michigan has a good chance of improving their record next year and thus Donovan would have gained a better rep through association. I don't agree with your premise that he played that well last season, especially as the season wore on. It's not just his 40 time that has the NFL scouts concerned. They are also concerned with his stiff hip swivel and footwork. This could have been improved through another year of coaching at the College level. I think only time will tell but my thinking is that he should have returned for his senior year.

UMaD

March 25th, 2010 at 1:04 PM ^

is Warren's overall athleticism. This won't change if he comes back and Michigan wins a title.

NFL scouts aren't going to change their opinion based on team performance. But even if they did, theres no reason to think Michigan's upcoming season of 7 or so wins would be a significant benefit to his draft stock, especially considering the presumed improvement should come primarily from the offense not the D.

Yes, Warren could come back to Michigan and become a better player and improve his draft stock, but he'll always be hampered by his sub-elite athleticism. Scouts aren't stupid. If they think he can improve his footwork and hip-swivel he's better off learning from NFL coaches against NFL competition than coming back to college. Players are drafted on primarily on their potential as pros, college performance and presumed readiness are secondary.

skunk bear

March 25th, 2010 at 4:43 PM ^

NFL teams are notorious for not wanting to carry players who aren't ready.

They make exceptions only for players with elite potential.

Do you think that they think that Warren is a future All-Pro who just needs some coaching up?

You have conceded that Warren has sub-elite athleticism.

UMaD

March 25th, 2010 at 5:13 PM ^

Given Warren's sub-elite athleticism, I don't think he'll be an all-pro. While he could hypothetically go back to college and work on things like "footwork" that make him more NFL-ready, I don't think it would be enough to put him into the 1st round given his other limitations. Even if you take the optimistic view that he'll improve substantially, it won't be enough to assuage the existing concerns about him.

My point was that NFL scouts can evaluate who can be coached up and who can't. That potential is included into their evaluations of players. Being on an NFL roster is probably a better place to be coached up than on a college roster. Warren might learn more in preseason camps than an entire season with college coaches he's already had for multiple seasons.

skunk bear

March 25th, 2010 at 5:52 PM ^

becomes secondary once camp begins.

Where what they think matters is in where one is drafted.

As you have have pointed out the signing bonus isn't all that different for the range where it is thought Warren is going to be drafted.

The real difference is whether Warren makes it as a player or not. If playing another year of college ball increases those odds then that is the smarter move.

UMaD

March 25th, 2010 at 6:03 PM ^

Ignoring the risk of major injury, and the high probability that Warren is good enough to make an NFL team right now...If Warren's goal is to just make it to an NFL roster I would agree with you. If his goals are to have a long and lucrative NFL career however...

skunk bear

March 25th, 2010 at 4:36 PM ^

for those that don't believe Warren would have improved by playing another year.

You do believe that Michigan is going to be better this year because we have returning starters whom we expect are going to have improved over last season, right?

Why would this apply to everyone except Donovan Warren?

UMaD

March 25th, 2010 at 5:38 PM ^

I don't think anyone is saying Warren wouldn't improve by playing another year. Although its not certain, he probably would.

At issue is what would Warren gain by improving after another season at Michigan. Take out all the uncertainty and risk and assume a best case scenario: Warren is an all-american CB on a successful Michigan team and enters the draft in 2011 with better footwork and displaying a stronger work ethic. Even in this (highly unlikely) rosy scenario, Warren's still not a 1st rounder because of his other flaws (e.g. speed). Maybe he's moved himself up from the 4th or 5th round to the 2nd round, but his increased signing bonus is offset by losing a year of NFL pay and delaying his first free agent contract.

Scenario A: If Warren is really a great player, despite the concerns, he's better off going pro now for financial reasons. The only way this isn't the case is if he gets drafted towards the top of the 1st round which seems incredibly unlikely given the combine results.

Scenario B: If Warren is really an average player, he's better off going pro and earning an extra year of the $2-3M salary. His draft position in the 2nd or 5th round or whatever won't substantially alter his earnings.

Scenario C: If Warren is awful...yeah, he made a mistake. If he gets cut right away and pisses away his signing bonus, he'll regret the decision. However, while its not an impossibility, its fairly uncommon for 3rd-5th round picks to get cut right away.

oakapple

March 25th, 2010 at 5:07 PM ^

I think there are two ways of looking at this. One is whether Warren weighed the risks intelligently. The other is a specific prediction about what will happen in his pro career.

You can make an analogy to football game strategy. A TV commentator once said, “Some plays are dumb, even when they work.” In contrast, a play could be right strategically, even when it fails.

Whatever Warren did had risks. If he stayed with Michigan, he had the potential for improving his draft stock, but his stock could go down if he were injured. In the meantime, he would lose a year of professional income, and he would have to work within the new NFL rookie salary restrictions in 2011. If he wasn’t really comfortable in the current Wolverine defense, as was suggested upthread, that obviously weighed in favor of skipping his senior season.

Given that he was unlikely to be a first- or second-rounder in any case, coming out now probably had more upside potential than down. That doesn’t mean it will turn out well—we won’t know that until we see what kind of NFL career he has—only that the balance of risks leaned more in favor of coming out.

Even if the worst happens — he doesn’t make any NFL roster, and earns zero — that doesn’t mean his decision was the wrong strategy. It will only mean that in a situation where any decision had risks, the cards didn’t fall his way.

As a Michigan fan, naturally I would have preferred to see him in maize and blue this year, but I respect the reasons why he decided to go in another direction.

UMaD

March 25th, 2010 at 5:16 PM ^

Its a hypothetical argument none of us can prove. Even if Warren totally flops and is immediately cut, we'll never know if staying at Michigan through 2011 would have altered his fate in any way.