Donovan Warren made the right choice

As to point 1, any evidence Warren didn't like school or is this just speculation?

As to point 2, you're talking about Michigan here. We have documented proof he didn't practice more than 20 hours, 20 minutes per week.

As to point 3, had Warren been the star of a resurgent Michigan defense and played a good Rose Bowl, you don't think he'd get ranked higher? C'mon.

DONOVAN, not Donavan, Warren is gone. Best of luck to him.

it seems like Warren is being judged by his 40 time. This will make the difference between a 2-3 round and 5-6th round pick. That is not likely to improve by playing 1 more year. It is likely to improve practicing for the 40 yard dash.

well-informed, well articulated, and some good points.

It was still a mistake, though, ime.

Football is a sport where each and every year, incremental improvement occurs (except for the Obi Ezeh's of the world, but he still has time)

Donovan would have been a better football player if he came back, and likely a higher pick. Why miss your senior year if nothing is guaranteed?

I disagree that "Donavan has already proven to be a very good college player." I'm not sure he did. Most scouting reviews were mixed or unimpressed. His best showing is 2nd team all Big 10. He did not have a great 2009, and a horrible team season has the opposite effect of a stellar one (which is a tide that raises all ships).

Your statement about salary restrictions next year is correct. Donavan Warren is not the only person aware of that fact, though, and it has brought a horde of early entrants, many better than Warren, who will push down his relative stock further. In fact, there may be a thinner talent stash next year for exactly this reason, making it a year when the group of seniors in the draft pool is heavily depleted and players will be taken earlier than they otherwise would have. Now it may be that salary restrictions are so drastic that being taken in the 2/3rd round next year would get you less money than the 5/6th this year, but I doubt it.

There is no guarantee that staying for his SR year would have had a Leon Hall effect. But there is also no guarantee that Warren does not wind up another Earnest Shazor.

I would want to become the best player I could be before I had to try to make the NFL.

If Warren fails to make the NFL this year, chances are Warren never makes it. By playing as a senior Warren gives himself the best chance of making it when the time finally comes.

I think this is the most important consideration.

Nice post, and I agree with the idea that Warren might as well give it a shot on the NFL stage if he doesn't feel that he'll improve much next year. What I will say, though, is that all the talk about 40-yard-time seems like a bit of a smokescreen. By all accounts he has been hurt during these timed runs, and I wouldn't be surprised if he ran a better time at the UM pro day. That said, scouts and draft experts look beyond just the 40-time and consider the player's entire career and his potential moving forward. With players from less prestigious programs or other divisions, tangible numbers like 40-yard times, shuttle drills, and bench press mean more because the stats were accumulated against "inferior" competition. But Warren played DB at the University of Michigan and matched up against some of the best players in the country almost every weekend.

So what he did during his career can fairly accurately be judged on its merits, and unfortunately for Warren his performance was largely "meh" against the better teams. He never showed the top speed you need to be a great corner in the NFL, and he lacks the size to be a top safety against the run. He certainly has the skills to be a good pro who can find playing time in the Nickle and Dime formations and maybe on special teams, but beyond that I'm not sure he'll ever grow into that elite cover corner that people first envisioned when he enter UM. Maybe another year wouldn't make a difference, but I guess we'll never know. Hopefully Warren can follow in Marlin Jackson's shoes and find a nice role in the NFL, but I don't think that his 40-yard time before some scouts will play that great a role in how his career pans out. I wish him the best, though.

If you want a perfect example of how returning for a senior season can dramatically improve your draft status please take a look at one Brandon Graham.

He didn't look all that much different status wise before last year than Warren does now. Any pro scout/coach will tell you that last year can make a huge difference.

Regardless of the cap/no-cap situation the difference between Rounds 1-2 and Rounds 3-5 is huge over a 4-5 year contract, not only with the money but the ability to make a roster and get on the field in the NFL.

interesting to some analysis on the "extra year of earning" for early entrants to the league. I would assume they're likely on average to have somewhat greater longevity in the league than a 4-year college player. Yet considering the average NFL career is only something like 3.5 years, bumping that a whole year to 4.5 (i.e., a nearly a 29% longer career) seems a stretch.

From a pure investment strategy (and obviously this is hypothetical because the NFL isn't drafting Warren Buffets), a player would have to weigh an extra year of having his money in some kind of investment vehicle versus delaying it for 12 months for a potentially higher signing bonus and thus greater Year 1 baseline investment. Any money managers out there? I would assume it may be worth the risk to wait for #2 if the investment horizon is long-term? It seems even a marginal increase (10% - 15%) in signing bonus money Year 2 might make up the gap for the "lost" Year 1.

Nice argument, but I have to wonder if he put forth the effort after the season ended that most top picks do. I have no idea either way, but if I remember right, he was surprisingly weak at the bench too. Maybe just putting in better pre-draft work could have changed his stock. Kind of like a less disgusting version of OMG shirtless Andre Smith at Alabama.

It is too late for him to return and now everyday he is working for his pay. Thus showing up at workouts and the combine with avg or poor performances did nothing to help his earnings potential.

Also, returning for his sr yr would not have helped any if he didn't put the offseason work in, have a better sr yr and then make sure he was ready for all the same stuff next yr....so with him not being ready this yr, why would next yr be different....

Warren last yr was very good early on, thru the iowa game and tailed off. But even he was prone to the big 1st down reception that killed the defense last yr....

but you don't think a year of game film when the entire defense isn't an embarrassment and he could have made a ton of plays wouldn't have helped his stock?

your stock is judged by play during games and verified through physical measurements. he could have vastly improved on the former.

with his talent he really should be at least a second rounder. if he gets drafted any lower he will have made a mistake - not for us, but for him.

how his draft status would/wouldn't have changed. If they do implement a rookie wage scale, it will only drastically effect the first round picks, so this argument doesn't really hold water. I think in the end, the Bengals will draft him in the 5th round. They love Leon Hall, and took Morgan Trent last year. Morgan made the team and earned an NFL contract, and I bet Donovan will do the same. It's really hard to tell a teenager that they need to be a poor college student for just 12 more months when there is a hundred thousand dollar carrot dangling out there.

"he'll be cut whether he's a 2nd round pick or a 5th round pick. It really doesn't make a huge difference"

- unfortunately not so in the NFL - being a second round pick you have vastly improved chances of making a cut - that is simply the economics of the situation - they have paid you more money to sign and they are much more likely to keep you over a 5th round pick who has performed marginally better.

As of today the NFL still operates under a salary cap and your draft position has a significant impact on your ability to make a roster.

playing time under pressure in games -- that would really have been the only major advantage to staying. Working out and practicing for a year while sitting on the bench during games in the NFL is not the same. But DW started as a freshman, so he's already got more game experience than most -- it's hard to argue that another year would have helped him all that much.

That said, I think a second year under the same DC might have helped him shine in his senior year (he had a different DC each of his three years at Michigan) and improved his draft status, the combine be damned.

On the plus side for Michigan, the 2011 team will have one more year of game experience at cornerback than it would have if Donovan had stayed.

Donovan has his entire life to be an NFL player. But you can only be a Michigan Wolverine for four years, five if you redshirt.

I don't know the guy and can't presume to know what he thinks, at least outside of all things Olive Garden, but 20 years from now I think he'll still be wondering what might have been different if he stayed for the senior year.

I still think Donovan's decision was sealed when he looked at the replay of that kick-off coverage collision he had. When he saw his knee bend backwards, and then thought about Sam Bradford coming back only to be injured .... that's a huge risk.

Then there is a risk not mentioned here. Michigan's D is still a "development project" this season. Even if Donovan stayed healthy and continued to shine as a defensive leader, if our defense continued to struggle his stock would not go up much. (IMO the Florida win saved a lot of guys' bacon from the 2007 team - coaches and players alike.)

If you couple those risks, with the salary cap risk, and then compare them with leaving an additional year of salary on the table, and the chances of his draft stock rising based on a faster 40 time from one more year of Barwiscizing and an improved overall image of Michigan's defense ... well lets just say I agree with the OP, and with Donovan's decision.

I think the thing he will miss is the leadership opportunity that being a Senior gives you. There is a certain swagger that we see Seniors pick up every year as they drive the younger generation and get to that time in their career where they have to be more then a talent, but actually the leader. When it is your senior year, every push up means a little more, every practice is closer to your last, every loss hurts a little more, and I think the combination of those things with their responsibility of being an example helps prepare kids to go to the next level. Will he fail because he didn't get a Senior year. No probably not, but I do see value for those who stay. There is more than one way to be a Champion.

I don't necessarily agree with your number three assessment. I think Michigan has a good chance of improving their record next year and thus Donovan would have gained a better rep through association. I don't agree with your premise that he played that well last season, especially as the season wore on. It's not just his 40 time that has the NFL scouts concerned. They are also concerned with his stiff hip swivel and footwork. This could have been improved through another year of coaching at the College level. I think only time will tell but my thinking is that he should have returned for his senior year.

for those that don't believe Warren would have improved by playing another year.

You do believe that Michigan is going to be better this year because we have returning starters whom we expect are going to have improved over last season, right?

Why would this apply to everyone except Donovan Warren?

He was a good player and I wish he would have come back. To be honest though he was never truly the player I envisioned him to be when he signed with us.

I think there are two ways of looking at this. One is whether Warren weighed the risks intelligently. The other is a specific prediction about what will happen in his pro career.

You can make an analogy to football game strategy. A TV commentator once said, “Some plays are dumb, even when they work.” In contrast, a play could be right strategically, even when it fails.

Whatever Warren did had risks. If he stayed with Michigan, he had the potential for improving his draft stock, but his stock could go down if he were injured. In the meantime, he would lose a year of professional income, and he would have to work within the new NFL rookie salary restrictions in 2011. If he wasn’t really comfortable in the current Wolverine defense, as was suggested upthread, that obviously weighed in favor of skipping his senior season.

Given that he was unlikely to be a first- or second-rounder in any case, coming out now probably had more upside potential than down. That doesn’t mean it will turn out well—we won’t know that until we see what kind of NFL career he has—only that the balance of risks leaned more in favor of coming out.

Even if the worst happens — he doesn’t make any NFL roster, and earns zero — that doesn’t mean his decision was the wrong strategy. It will only mean that in a situation where any decision had risks, the cards didn’t fall his way.

As a Michigan fan, naturally I would have preferred to see him in maize and blue this year, but I respect the reasons why he decided to go in another direction.