Does Expansion Actually Lead to More Recruits From a Certain Region?

Submitted by maizeonblueaction on

So, one of the things we hear about as a benefit of expansion is that it opens up new recruiting grounds for the schools already in the conference. Since we have yet to see what will happen with Maryland and New Jersey, I figured one of the most apt comparisons for our purposes would be to look at what happened to the SEC in what is generally called in recruiting circles the "Midlands" (Basically Texas, Kansas, Missouri, Colorado, etc.) In theory, picking up A&M and Mizzou should have helped existing SEC members gain access to recruiting in this area, and it should have been obvious over the last couple cycles. So, I went through the Rivals database, and grabbed every kid who was a four star or higher from  2010-2013 in those regions, and checked to see what conference the school they ended up at was in. Chart? Chart.

I only looked at the SEC and the Big 12 as they were in 2010, before things switched, and didn't count the schools that switched. I also only counted schools that stayed in the same conference, as it would throw things if I counted a school for one conference, then the other. In theory, the schools still in the same conference should also benefit.

2010:

Lache Seastrunk
Oregon
 
DeAndrew White
Alabama
SEC
Trent Spurgeon
Arizona
 
Derek Earls
Arizona
 
Nduka Onyeali
Arizona State
 
Calvin Barnett
Arkansas
SEC
Cam Feldt
Arkansas
SEC
Cameron Newton
Auburn
SEC
Brandon Mosley
Auburn
SEC
Ahmad Dixon
Baylor
Big 12
Tyler Stephenson
Baylor
Big 12
Robert Griffin
Baylor
Big 12
Ross Apo
Brigham Young
 
Chris Martin
California
 
A.J. Derby
Iowa
 
Chris Young
Iowa State
Big 12
Brandon Bourbon
Kansas
Big 12
Keeston Terry
Kansas
Big 12
Adam Davis
Kansas State
Big 12
DeMarcus Robinson
Kansas State
Big 12
Zach Lee
LSU
SEC
Evan Washington
LSU
SEC
Nick Demien
Missouri
 
Marcus Lucas
Missouri
 
Tristen Holt
Missouri
 
James Franklin
Missouri
 
Kony Ealy
Missouri
 
Tyler Gabbert
Missouri
 
Lavonte David
Nebraska
Big 12
Jermarcus Hardrick
Nebraska
Big 12
Andrew Rodriguez
Nebraska
Big 12
Chase Rome
Nebraska
Big 12
Chase Harper
Nebraska
Big 12
Danny Spond
Notre Dame
 
Justin McCay
Oklahoma
Big 12
Blake Bell
Oklahoma
Big 12
Corey Nelson
Oklahoma
Big 12
Austin Woods
Oklahoma
Big 12
Daryl Williams
Oklahoma
Big 12
Trey Millard
Oklahoma
Big 12
Austin Haywood
Oklahoma
Big 12
Eric Humphrey
Oklahoma
Big 12
Tyrus Thompson
Oklahoma
Big 12
James Haynes
Oklahoma
Big 12
Bronson Irwin
Oklahoma
Big 12
Geneo Grissom
Oklahoma
Big 12
Shaun Lewis
Oklahoma State
Big 12
Justin Gilbert
Oklahoma State
Big 12
Joseph Randle
Oklahoma State
Big 12
Johnny Deaton
Oklahoma State
Big 12
Dontae Williams
Oregon
Pac12
Josh Huff
Oregon
Pac12
Toquavius Gilchrist
South Carolina
SEC
Dillon Bonnell
Stanford
Pac12
Eddrick Loften
Tennessee
SEC
Dave Clark
Tennessee
SEC
Jackson Jeffcoat
Texas
Big 12
Tevin Jackson
Texas
Big 12
Mike Davis
Texas
Big 12
Darius White
Texas
Big 12
Reggie Wilson
Texas
Big 12
Chris Jones
Texas
Big 12
Connor Wood
Texas
Big 12
Ashton Dorsey
Texas
Big 12
Trey Hopkins
Texas
Big 12
Taylor Bible
Texas
Big 12
Dominic Espinosa
Texas
Big 12
Traylon Shead
Texas
Big 12
Adrian Phillips
Texas
Big 12
Bryant Jackson
Texas
Big 12
Carrington Byndom
Texas
Big 12
Aaron Benson
Texas
Big 12
DeMarco Cobbs
Texas
Big 12
John Harris
Texas
Big 12
Darius Terrell
Texas
Big 12
Greg Daniels
Texas
Big 12
Jake Matthews
Texas A&M
 
Luke Joeckel
Texas A&M
 
Cedric Ogbuehi
Texas A&M
 
Ben Malena
Texas A&M
 
Shep Klinke
Texas A&M
 
D.J. Jones
Texas A&M
 
Mister Jones
Texas A&M
 
Jonathan Mathis
Texas A&M
 
Scott Smith
Texas Tech
Big 12
Tre'Vante Porter
Texas Tech
Big 12
Scotty Young
Texas Tech
Big 12
Jackson Richards
Texas Tech
Big 12
Delans Griffin
Texas Tech
Big 12
Terrell Reese
Utah
 

10 out of the 90 four stars ended up at an SEC school

2011:

Malcolm Brown
Texas
Big 12
Trey Metoyer
Oklahoma
Big 12
Brandon Williams
Oklahoma
Big 12
Steve Edmond
Texas
Big 12
Cornellius Carradine
Florida State
 
Jaxon Shipley
Texas
Big 12
Jordan Phillips
Oklahoma
Big 12
Herschel Sims
Oklahoma State
Big 12
Quandre Diggs
Texas
Big 12
Aaron Green
Nebraska
Big 12
Jace Amaro
Texas Tech
Big 12
Jacob Fahrenkrug
Florida State
 
Christian French
Oregon
 
LaDarius Brown
TCU
 
J.W. Walsh
Oklahoma State
Big 12
Sedrick Flowers
Texas
Big 12
Garrett Greenlea
Texas
Big 12
Cedric Reed
Texas
Big 12
Anthony Wallace
Oregon
 
Desmond Jackson
Texas
Big 12
Josh Cochran
Texas
Big 12
Tevin Mitchel
Arkansas
SEC
Nathan Hughes
Oklahoma
Big 12
Chet Moss
Texas
Big 12
Joe Williams
Baylor
Big 12
Ryne Reeves
Nebraska
Big 12
Zach Sterup
Nebraska
Big 12
Tony Morales
Texas Tech
Big 12
Mykkele Thompson
Texas
Big 12
David Santos
Nebraska
Big 12
Kenny Williams
Texas Tech
Big 12
M.J. McFarland
Texas
Big 12
Chris Barnett
Michigan
 
Max Stevenson
Oklahoma
Big 12
Kendall Thompson
Texas
Big 12
Bubba Starling
Nebraska
Big 12
Ty Montgomery
Stanford
 
Jared Ebert
Oregon
 
Josh Turner
Texas
Big 12
Howard Matthews
Texas A&M
 
Sheroid Evans
Texas
Big 12
Dylan Dismuke
Oklahoma
Big 12
Spencer Drango
Baylor
Big 12
Kameel Jackson
Oklahoma
Big 12
Austin Blythe
Iowa
 
Leilon Willingham
UCF
 
Maurice Couch
Tennessee
SEC
Brendon Austin
Stanford
 
David Jenkins
LSU
SEC
Matt Williams
California
 
Marquis Anderson
Oklahoma
Big 12
Jordan Wade
Oklahoma
Big 12
Charles Jackson
Nebraska
Big 12
Toby Jackson
UCF
 
Quincy Russell
Texas
Big 12
Zach Mettenberger
LSU
SEC
Derek Edwards
Texas Tech
Big 12
Joseph Cheek
Texas A&M
 
Marcus Kennard
Texas Tech
Big 12
Darrian Miller
Kansas
Big 12
Jamal Turner
Nebraska
Big 12
     

4 out of 61 to the SEC this year

2012 was the year we should have seen an uptick:

Dorial Green-Beckham
Missouri
 
Malcom Brown
Texas
Big 12
Johnathan Gray
Texas
Big 12
Mario Edwards
Florida State
 
Ondre Pipkins
Michigan
 
Trey Williams
Texas A&M
 
Thomas Johnson
Texas A&M
 
Cayleb Jones
Texas
Big 12
Cyler Miles
Washington
 
Kendall Sanders
Texas
Big 12
Cordarrelle Patterson
Tennessee
SEC
Joey O'Connor
Ohio State
 
Curtis Riser
Texas
Big 12
Kennedy Estelle
Texas
Big 12
DeVante Harris
Texas A&M
 
Marion Grice
Arizona State
 
Javonte Magee
Baylor
Big 12
Durron Neal
Oklahoma
Big 12
LaDarrell McNeil
Tennessee
SEC
Matt Davis
Texas A&M
Big 12
Alex Kozan
Auburn
SEC
Daje Johnson
Texas
Big 12
Peter Jinkens
Texas
Big 12
Jonathan Williams
Arkansas
SEC
Devonte Fields
TCU
 
Bryson Echols
Texas
Big 12
Mike Matthews
Texas A&M
 
Edward Pope
Texas A&M
 
Jordan Richmond
Texas A&M
 
Amara Darboh
Michigan
 
Hassan Ridgeway
Texas
Big 12
Alex Ross
Oklahoma
Big 12
Danielle Hunter
LSU
SEC
Justin Thomas
Utah
 
Shane Callahan
Auburn
SEC
Paul Thurston
Nebraska
Big 12
Evan Baylis
Oregon
 
Griffin Gilbert
TCU
 
Brian Nance
Baylor
 
Colin Blake
Florida State
 
Corey Coleman
Baylor
 
Bralon Addison
Oregon
 
John Michael McGee
Oklahoma
Big 12
Trevor Knight
Oklahoma
Big 12
Timothy Cole
Texas
Big 12
Sterling Shepard
Oklahoma
Big 12
Orlando Thomas
Texas
Big 12
Camrhon Hughes
Texas
Big 12
Reginald Davis
Texas Tech
Big 12
Evan Boehm
Missouri
 
Paul Boyette Jr.
Texas
Big 12
Michael Starts
Texas Tech
Big 12
Dominique Wheeler
Texas Tech
Big 12
Barry Sanders
Stanford
 
Tyler Matthews
TCU
 
Marquez Clark
Kansas State
Big 12

It's 6/56, which is not very different from previous years

2013:

A'Shawn Robinson
Alabama
SEC
Mike Mitchell
Ohio State
 
Deon Long
Maryland
 
Ricky Seals-Jones
Texas A&M
 
Darius James
Texas
Big 12
Kent Perkins
Texas
Big 12
Keith Ford
Oklahoma
Big 12
Derrick Griffin
Miami (FL)
 
Ezekiel Elliott
Ohio State
 
Robbie Rhodes
Baylor
Big 12
Maurice Smith
Alabama
SEC
Cody Thomas
Oklahoma
Big 12
Kameron Miles
Texas A&M
 
Justin Manning
Texas A&M
 
Ben Bradley
Auburn
SEC
Dontre Wilson
Ohio State
 
J.T. Barrett
Ohio State
 
D.J. Ward
Oklahoma
Big 12
Kerrick Huggins
Oklahoma
Big 12
Isaiah Golden
Texas A&M
 
Kenny Hill
Texas A&M
 
Deoundrei Davis
Texas
Big 12
Chris Fox
Michigan
 
Antwuan Davis
Texas
Big 12
Jake Oliver
Texas
Big 12
Jake Raulerson
Texas
Big 12
Toby Johnson
Georgia
SEC
Caleb Benenoch
UCLA
 
Quincy Adeboyejo
Mississippi
SEC
Jerel Morrow
Oklahoma State
Big 12
Tyrone Swoopes
Texas
Big 12
Adam Taylor
Nebraska
 
Rami Hammad
Texas
Big 12
Josh Banderas
Nebraska
 
Torrodney Prevot
Oregon
 
Hardreck Walker
Texas A&M
 
Eldridge Massington
UCLA
 
Deon Hollins Jr.
UCLA
 
Laquvionte Gonzalez
Texas A&M
 
Kyrion Parker
Texas A&M
 
Fred Ross
Mississippi State
SEC
Marcus Hardison
Arizona State
 
Mitchell Parsons
Vanderbilt
SEC
Ishmael Wilson
Texas A&M
 
Devin Lauderdale
Texas Tech
Big 12
Stanvon Taylor
Oklahoma
Big 12
Chase Abbington
Missouri
 
Daeshon Hall
Texas A&M
 
Nick Ramirez
Kansas State
 
Tanner Wood
Kansas State
 
Kohl Stewart
Texas A&M
 
Tavares Garner
Texas A&M
 
Kyle Hicks
TCU
 
Jacorey Warrick
Texas
Big 12
Andrew Billings
Baylor
Big 12
Torii Hunter Jr.
Notre Dame
 
Jake Campos
Iowa State
Big 12
Marcell Ateman
Oklahoma State
Big 12
Ra'Shaad Samples
Oklahoma State
Big 12
Rob Boyd
Tulsa
 
Corey Robinson
Notre Dame
 
Jatavius Stewart
list
 

7 out of 62, a slight uptick.

So, a preliminary report shows that the difference is pretty nonexistent, at least over the years covered. Things might look different if we counted the number of high-level players  A&M was getting in the Big 12 days as opposed to the SEC days, but their move doesn't seem to be helping the SEC in general start to recruit the state (a couple SEC West schools grabbed a couple kids, but they were doing that anyway). Also, Texas is one of the biggest recruiting states in the nation, and the difference is small in conference shift. A weird side note is that in the first year I looked at, the region put out 90 four star kids, and in every year after that, it's been about 60. Not sure if 2010 was simply a bumper crop, or if for some reason the region is actually just putting out less talent, which seems unlikely. At any rate, the effect of expansion on recruiting is minimal, at least in the first couple years after expansion.

EDIT: To satisfy curiosity, in 2010, 8 four stars from the region went to A&M, 2 in 2011, 7 in 2012, and 12 in 2013. It's worth noting that it was 12 out of 62 total in 2013, and 8 out of 90   total in 2010, so at least on the surface, A&M is really capitalizing on SEC membership. However, some of this could be skewed by oversigning, plus the fact that A&M had a very successful season in 2013, which always helps with recruits, no matter the conference.

Comments

Geary_maize

May 24th, 2013 at 4:29 AM ^

I think we have to take more factors into comparison.

1) Part of the draw of going to a school in your conference are that there are away games to your home state. With Texas being such a large state, it probably matters less to a Texas recruit that ATM is in the SEC. In fact, with all the Texas schools in the B12, they are still very attractive.

Contrast that with New Jersey and Maryland, which are small. A game over there is probably within driving distance for most parents in those states, New York, and Northern Virginia, which is pretty nice.

2) Most of the SEC is already in prime recruiting territory. Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Louisiana already pump out a huge number of blue chips, and neighbor other talent rich states like North Carolina and Virginia. Of course they'll target more Texas and Missouri recruits, but probably only the top tier guys, which doesn't put much of a dent in your numbers.

The B1G, however, has a lot less in-state talent. Basically, we need New Jersey and Maryland recruits more than the SEC needs Texas and Missouri recruits.

3) Why not include Texas A&M in your equation? Obviously they are part of the SEC. If more talent in Jersey and Maryland go to Rutgers and Maryland instead of another conference, that means a stronger B1G. 

.

.

I agree that the expansions recruiting impact to the SEC hasn't been huge, but think it'll be a lot bigger for B1G teams.

 

snarling wolverine

May 24th, 2013 at 6:40 PM ^

#2 is the big point.  SEC schools don't necessarily need to go to Texas and beyond to find players.  

I don't have hard data behind this, but I believe our Pennsylvania recruiting stepped up big-time after PSU joined the conference.

 

UMgradMSUdad

May 24th, 2013 at 1:54 AM ^

Great information.  Thanks for putting this together.  It will be interesting to see how these recruiting trends work out in the future.  Btw, for those who recall Bob Stoops's comment about the SEC being overrated, that comment was prompted by a reporter who began with a pontification about the superiority of the SEC making it difficult for schools like Oklahoma to hang on to local recruits. Also, schools from the SEC are making offers to kids in areas they did not before, and many of these schools are using as part of their pitch the strength of the SEC, even if they are finishing at the bottom of the league. They may not be succeeding just yet, but the effort is there.

Tater

May 24th, 2013 at 2:06 AM ^

When you are a national brand like Michigan is, having a couple of games within a few hours' drive can influence a recruit.  Plus, there is increased media presence due to the conference footprint.  

Mostly, though, it is schools like Michigan that can fully utilize any advantage they get, while it isn't going to make a lot of difference to Purdue, for example.

BlueNote

May 24th, 2013 at 12:00 PM ^

Nice work.  I would think you would want to control for quality.  If the conventional wisdom is true that conference expansion = more recruiting power in the new conference areas, then you may see the same numbers as before, but you will be getting recruits of higher quality from the new conference territory.

In this specific example, the SEC is getting roughly the same percentage of its recruits from Texas and Missouri as it did before conference expansion.  However, has the quality of those recruits increased?

I imagine this would be a fairly straightforward add-on to the existing work you've done, although it might be time-consuming.

DanUMich

May 24th, 2013 at 6:46 PM ^

Another point to consider is that recruits will go to schools that they are familiar with. Recruits from Missouri and eastern Texas are not used to watching their local teams play in the SEC. I would imagine with time, younger recruits will become more familiar with SEC teams and become more likely to visit/commit one of the SEC teams.

Wolfman

May 24th, 2013 at 11:54 PM ^

Certain teams will gain just by being who they are. For instance, generally considered the number 6 producer of h.s. talent joined the BIG, they actually hurt themselves somewhat because prior to that time they owned the very area that Rutgets and Md might offer from.  Likewise, Rutgers will be exposing themselve to losing some of its better players to OSU and UM, perennial powers who are respected no matter what part of the country they are going into.       ^ UM and OSU is already considered on most of these blue chippers list from time they are in the 10th grade.  Expansion will allow them to see them personally for the price of a ticket or even setting up a visit to the hosting team. They will more than likely to be there just as much to watch the opponent as they are to check out host school when OSU or UM come into town.  Lesser schools not so much.  And I really can't see NJ kids, with all the things the greater NY area has to offer venturing off to someplace like Lincoln. PSU had been the Beast of the East prior to these kids even being born, so their proximity might be enhanced if they are able to regrain the stature they once held.

crocrobinson

May 27th, 2013 at 2:31 PM ^

I think this is an interesting analysis. I think my real question is whether expansion/realignment opens up your established recruiting grounds to those new schools? For instance, is Nebraska getting an uptick in midwest recruits since joining the B1G?

I tend to think that for the most part expansion doesn't do much to alter recruiting grounds, but if it did affect anything, I think it would affect the new entrants to a conference moreso than the existing members.