Does Expansion Actually Lead to More Recruits From a Certain Region?
So, one of the things we hear about as a benefit of expansion is that it opens up new recruiting grounds for the schools already in the conference. Since we have yet to see what will happen with Maryland and New Jersey, I figured one of the most apt comparisons for our purposes would be to look at what happened to the SEC in what is generally called in recruiting circles the "Midlands" (Basically Texas, Kansas, Missouri, Colorado, etc.) In theory, picking up A&M and Mizzou should have helped existing SEC members gain access to recruiting in this area, and it should have been obvious over the last couple cycles. So, I went through the Rivals database, and grabbed every kid who was a four star or higher from 2010-2013 in those regions, and checked to see what conference the school they ended up at was in. Chart? Chart.
I only looked at the SEC and the Big 12 as they were in 2010, before things switched, and didn't count the schools that switched. I also only counted schools that stayed in the same conference, as it would throw things if I counted a school for one conference, then the other. In theory, the schools still in the same conference should also benefit.
2010:
Lache Seastrunk |
Oregon
|
|
DeAndrew White |
Alabama
|
SEC |
Trent Spurgeon |
Arizona
|
|
Derek Earls |
Arizona
|
|
Nduka Onyeali |
Arizona State
|
|
Calvin Barnett |
Arkansas
|
SEC |
Cam Feldt |
Arkansas
|
SEC |
Cameron Newton |
Auburn
|
SEC |
Brandon Mosley |
Auburn
|
SEC |
Ahmad Dixon |
Baylor
|
Big 12 |
Tyler Stephenson |
Baylor
|
Big 12 |
Robert Griffin |
Baylor
|
Big 12 |
Ross Apo |
Brigham Young
|
|
Chris Martin |
California
|
|
A.J. Derby |
Iowa
|
|
Chris Young |
Iowa State
|
Big 12 |
Brandon Bourbon |
Kansas
|
Big 12 |
Keeston Terry |
Kansas
|
Big 12 |
Adam Davis |
Kansas State
|
Big 12 |
DeMarcus Robinson |
Kansas State
|
Big 12 |
Zach Lee |
LSU
|
SEC |
Evan Washington |
LSU
|
SEC |
Nick Demien |
Missouri
|
|
Marcus Lucas |
Missouri
|
|
Tristen Holt |
Missouri
|
|
James Franklin |
Missouri
|
|
Kony Ealy |
Missouri
|
|
Tyler Gabbert |
Missouri
|
|
Lavonte David |
Nebraska
|
Big 12 |
Jermarcus Hardrick |
Nebraska
|
Big 12 |
Andrew Rodriguez |
Nebraska
|
Big 12 |
Chase Rome |
Nebraska
|
Big 12 |
Chase Harper |
Nebraska
|
Big 12 |
Danny Spond |
Notre Dame
|
|
Justin McCay |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Blake Bell |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Corey Nelson |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Austin Woods |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Daryl Williams |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Trey Millard |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Austin Haywood |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Eric Humphrey |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Tyrus Thompson |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
James Haynes |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Bronson Irwin |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Geneo Grissom |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Shaun Lewis |
Oklahoma State
|
Big 12 |
Justin Gilbert |
Oklahoma State
|
Big 12 |
Joseph Randle |
Oklahoma State
|
Big 12 |
Johnny Deaton |
Oklahoma State
|
Big 12 |
Dontae Williams |
Oregon
|
Pac12 |
Josh Huff |
Oregon
|
Pac12 |
Toquavius Gilchrist |
South Carolina
|
SEC |
Dillon Bonnell |
Stanford
|
Pac12 |
Eddrick Loften |
Tennessee
|
SEC |
Dave Clark |
Tennessee
|
SEC |
Jackson Jeffcoat |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Tevin Jackson |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Mike Davis |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Darius White |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Reggie Wilson |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Chris Jones |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Connor Wood |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Ashton Dorsey |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Trey Hopkins |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Taylor Bible |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Dominic Espinosa |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Traylon Shead |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Adrian Phillips |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Bryant Jackson |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Carrington Byndom |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Aaron Benson |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
DeMarco Cobbs |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
John Harris |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Darius Terrell |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Greg Daniels |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Jake Matthews |
Texas A&M
|
|
Luke Joeckel |
Texas A&M
|
|
Cedric Ogbuehi |
Texas A&M
|
|
Ben Malena |
Texas A&M
|
|
Shep Klinke |
Texas A&M
|
|
D.J. Jones |
Texas A&M
|
|
Mister Jones |
Texas A&M
|
|
Jonathan Mathis |
Texas A&M
|
|
Scott Smith |
Texas Tech
|
Big 12 |
Tre'Vante Porter |
Texas Tech
|
Big 12 |
Scotty Young |
Texas Tech
|
Big 12 |
Jackson Richards |
Texas Tech
|
Big 12 |
Delans Griffin |
Texas Tech
|
Big 12 |
Terrell Reese |
Utah
|
10 out of the 90 four stars ended up at an SEC school
2011:
Malcolm Brown |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Trey Metoyer |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Brandon Williams |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Steve Edmond |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Cornellius Carradine |
Florida State
|
|
Jaxon Shipley |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Jordan Phillips |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Herschel Sims |
Oklahoma State
|
Big 12 |
Quandre Diggs |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Aaron Green |
Nebraska
|
Big 12 |
Jace Amaro |
Texas Tech
|
Big 12 |
Jacob Fahrenkrug |
Florida State
|
|
Christian French |
Oregon
|
|
LaDarius Brown |
TCU
|
|
J.W. Walsh |
Oklahoma State
|
Big 12 |
Sedrick Flowers |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Garrett Greenlea |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Cedric Reed |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Anthony Wallace |
Oregon
|
|
Desmond Jackson |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Josh Cochran |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Tevin Mitchel |
Arkansas
|
SEC |
Nathan Hughes |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Chet Moss |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Joe Williams |
Baylor
|
Big 12 |
Ryne Reeves |
Nebraska
|
Big 12 |
Zach Sterup |
Nebraska
|
Big 12 |
Tony Morales |
Texas Tech
|
Big 12 |
Mykkele Thompson |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
David Santos |
Nebraska
|
Big 12 |
Kenny Williams |
Texas Tech
|
Big 12 |
M.J. McFarland |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Chris Barnett |
Michigan
|
|
Max Stevenson |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Kendall Thompson |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Bubba Starling |
Nebraska
|
Big 12 |
Ty Montgomery |
Stanford
|
|
Jared Ebert |
Oregon
|
|
Josh Turner |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Howard Matthews |
Texas A&M
|
|
Sheroid Evans |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Dylan Dismuke |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Spencer Drango |
Baylor
|
Big 12 |
Kameel Jackson |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Austin Blythe |
Iowa
|
|
Leilon Willingham |
UCF
|
|
Maurice Couch |
Tennessee
|
SEC |
Brendon Austin |
Stanford
|
|
David Jenkins |
LSU
|
SEC |
Matt Williams |
California
|
|
Marquis Anderson |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Jordan Wade |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Charles Jackson |
Nebraska
|
Big 12 |
Toby Jackson |
UCF
|
|
Quincy Russell |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Zach Mettenberger |
LSU
|
SEC |
Derek Edwards |
Texas Tech
|
Big 12 |
Joseph Cheek |
Texas A&M
|
|
Marcus Kennard |
Texas Tech
|
Big 12 |
Darrian Miller |
Kansas
|
Big 12 |
Jamal Turner |
Nebraska
|
Big 12 |
4 out of 61 to the SEC this year
2012 was the year we should have seen an uptick:
Dorial Green-Beckham |
Missouri
|
|
Malcom Brown |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Johnathan Gray |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Mario Edwards |
Florida State
|
|
Ondre Pipkins |
Michigan
|
|
Trey Williams |
Texas A&M
|
|
Thomas Johnson |
Texas A&M
|
|
Cayleb Jones |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Cyler Miles |
Washington
|
|
Kendall Sanders |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Cordarrelle Patterson |
Tennessee
|
SEC |
Joey O'Connor |
Ohio State
|
|
Curtis Riser |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Kennedy Estelle |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
DeVante Harris |
Texas A&M
|
|
Marion Grice |
Arizona State
|
|
Javonte Magee |
Baylor
|
Big 12 |
Durron Neal |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
LaDarrell McNeil |
Tennessee
|
SEC |
Matt Davis |
Texas A&M
|
Big 12 |
Alex Kozan |
Auburn
|
SEC |
Daje Johnson |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Peter Jinkens |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Jonathan Williams |
Arkansas
|
SEC |
Devonte Fields |
TCU
|
|
Bryson Echols |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Mike Matthews |
Texas A&M
|
|
Edward Pope |
Texas A&M
|
|
Jordan Richmond |
Texas A&M
|
|
Amara Darboh |
Michigan
|
|
Hassan Ridgeway |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Alex Ross |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Danielle Hunter |
LSU
|
SEC |
Justin Thomas |
Utah
|
|
Shane Callahan |
Auburn
|
SEC |
Paul Thurston |
Nebraska
|
Big 12 |
Evan Baylis |
Oregon
|
|
Griffin Gilbert |
TCU
|
|
Brian Nance |
Baylor
|
|
Colin Blake |
Florida State
|
|
Corey Coleman |
Baylor
|
|
Bralon Addison |
Oregon
|
|
John Michael McGee |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Trevor Knight |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Timothy Cole |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Sterling Shepard |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Orlando Thomas |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Camrhon Hughes |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Reginald Davis |
Texas Tech
|
Big 12 |
Evan Boehm |
Missouri
|
|
Paul Boyette Jr. |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Michael Starts |
Texas Tech
|
Big 12 |
Dominique Wheeler |
Texas Tech
|
Big 12 |
Barry Sanders |
Stanford
|
|
Tyler Matthews |
TCU
|
|
Marquez Clark |
Kansas State
|
Big 12 |
It's 6/56, which is not very different from previous years
2013:
A'Shawn Robinson |
Alabama
|
SEC |
Mike Mitchell |
Ohio State
|
|
Deon Long |
Maryland
|
|
Ricky Seals-Jones |
Texas A&M
|
|
Darius James |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Kent Perkins |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Keith Ford |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Derrick Griffin |
Miami (FL)
|
|
Ezekiel Elliott |
Ohio State
|
|
Robbie Rhodes |
Baylor
|
Big 12 |
Maurice Smith |
Alabama
|
SEC |
Cody Thomas |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Kameron Miles |
Texas A&M
|
|
Justin Manning |
Texas A&M
|
|
Ben Bradley |
Auburn
|
SEC |
Dontre Wilson |
Ohio State
|
|
J.T. Barrett |
Ohio State
|
|
D.J. Ward |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Kerrick Huggins |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Isaiah Golden |
Texas A&M
|
|
Kenny Hill |
Texas A&M
|
|
Deoundrei Davis |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Chris Fox |
Michigan
|
|
Antwuan Davis |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Jake Oliver |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Jake Raulerson |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Toby Johnson |
Georgia
|
SEC |
Caleb Benenoch |
UCLA
|
|
Quincy Adeboyejo |
Mississippi
|
SEC |
Jerel Morrow |
Oklahoma State
|
Big 12 |
Tyrone Swoopes |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Adam Taylor |
Nebraska
|
|
Rami Hammad |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Josh Banderas |
Nebraska
|
|
Torrodney Prevot |
Oregon
|
|
Hardreck Walker |
Texas A&M
|
|
Eldridge Massington |
UCLA
|
|
Deon Hollins Jr. |
UCLA
|
|
Laquvionte Gonzalez |
Texas A&M
|
|
Kyrion Parker |
Texas A&M
|
|
Fred Ross |
Mississippi State
|
SEC |
Marcus Hardison |
Arizona State
|
|
Mitchell Parsons |
Vanderbilt
|
SEC |
Ishmael Wilson |
Texas A&M
|
|
Devin Lauderdale |
Texas Tech
|
Big 12 |
Stanvon Taylor |
Oklahoma
|
Big 12 |
Chase Abbington |
Missouri
|
|
Daeshon Hall |
Texas A&M
|
|
Nick Ramirez |
Kansas State
|
|
Tanner Wood |
Kansas State
|
|
Kohl Stewart |
Texas A&M
|
|
Tavares Garner |
Texas A&M
|
|
Kyle Hicks |
TCU
|
|
Jacorey Warrick |
Texas
|
Big 12 |
Andrew Billings |
Baylor
|
Big 12 |
Torii Hunter Jr. |
Notre Dame
|
|
Jake Campos |
Iowa State
|
Big 12 |
Marcell Ateman |
Oklahoma State
|
Big 12 |
Ra'Shaad Samples |
Oklahoma State
|
Big 12 |
Rob Boyd |
Tulsa
|
|
Corey Robinson |
Notre Dame
|
|
Jatavius Stewart |
list
|
7 out of 62, a slight uptick.
So, a preliminary report shows that the difference is pretty nonexistent, at least over the years covered. Things might look different if we counted the number of high-level players A&M was getting in the Big 12 days as opposed to the SEC days, but their move doesn't seem to be helping the SEC in general start to recruit the state (a couple SEC West schools grabbed a couple kids, but they were doing that anyway). Also, Texas is one of the biggest recruiting states in the nation, and the difference is small in conference shift. A weird side note is that in the first year I looked at, the region put out 90 four star kids, and in every year after that, it's been about 60. Not sure if 2010 was simply a bumper crop, or if for some reason the region is actually just putting out less talent, which seems unlikely. At any rate, the effect of expansion on recruiting is minimal, at least in the first couple years after expansion.
EDIT: To satisfy curiosity, in 2010, 8 four stars from the region went to A&M, 2 in 2011, 7 in 2012, and 12 in 2013. It's worth noting that it was 12 out of 62 total in 2013, and 8 out of 90 total in 2010, so at least on the surface, A&M is really capitalizing on SEC membership. However, some of this could be skewed by oversigning, plus the fact that A&M had a very successful season in 2013, which always helps with recruits, no matter the conference.
I think we have to take more factors into comparison.
1) Part of the draw of going to a school in your conference are that there are away games to your home state. With Texas being such a large state, it probably matters less to a Texas recruit that ATM is in the SEC. In fact, with all the Texas schools in the B12, they are still very attractive.
Contrast that with New Jersey and Maryland, which are small. A game over there is probably within driving distance for most parents in those states, New York, and Northern Virginia, which is pretty nice.
2) Most of the SEC is already in prime recruiting territory. Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Louisiana already pump out a huge number of blue chips, and neighbor other talent rich states like North Carolina and Virginia. Of course they'll target more Texas and Missouri recruits, but probably only the top tier guys, which doesn't put much of a dent in your numbers.
The B1G, however, has a lot less in-state talent. Basically, we need New Jersey and Maryland recruits more than the SEC needs Texas and Missouri recruits.
3) Why not include Texas A&M in your equation? Obviously they are part of the SEC. If more talent in Jersey and Maryland go to Rutgers and Maryland instead of another conference, that means a stronger B1G.
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I agree that the expansions recruiting impact to the SEC hasn't been huge, but think it'll be a lot bigger for B1G teams.
#2 is the big point. SEC schools don't necessarily need to go to Texas and beyond to find players.
I don't have hard data behind this, but I believe our Pennsylvania recruiting stepped up big-time after PSU joined the conference.
Great information. Thanks for putting this together. It will be interesting to see how these recruiting trends work out in the future. Btw, for those who recall Bob Stoops's comment about the SEC being overrated, that comment was prompted by a reporter who began with a pontification about the superiority of the SEC making it difficult for schools like Oklahoma to hang on to local recruits. Also, schools from the SEC are making offers to kids in areas they did not before, and many of these schools are using as part of their pitch the strength of the SEC, even if they are finishing at the bottom of the league. They may not be succeeding just yet, but the effort is there.
When you are a national brand like Michigan is, having a couple of games within a few hours' drive can influence a recruit. Plus, there is increased media presence due to the conference footprint.
Mostly, though, it is schools like Michigan that can fully utilize any advantage they get, while it isn't going to make a lot of difference to Purdue, for example.
Nice work. I would think you would want to control for quality. If the conventional wisdom is true that conference expansion = more recruiting power in the new conference areas, then you may see the same numbers as before, but you will be getting recruits of higher quality from the new conference territory.
In this specific example, the SEC is getting roughly the same percentage of its recruits from Texas and Missouri as it did before conference expansion. However, has the quality of those recruits increased?
I imagine this would be a fairly straightforward add-on to the existing work you've done, although it might be time-consuming.
to a change to getting more 5.9 recruits as opposed to 5.8, or a general shift to more four stars and higher, and less three stars? Also, nice Borges quote for a signature.
Another point to consider is that recruits will go to schools that they are familiar with. Recruits from Missouri and eastern Texas are not used to watching their local teams play in the SEC. I would imagine with time, younger recruits will become more familiar with SEC teams and become more likely to visit/commit one of the SEC teams.
Certain teams will gain just by being who they are. For instance, generally considered the number 6 producer of h.s. talent joined the BIG, they actually hurt themselves somewhat because prior to that time they owned the very area that Rutgets and Md might offer from. Likewise, Rutgers will be exposing themselve to losing some of its better players to OSU and UM, perennial powers who are respected no matter what part of the country they are going into. ^ UM and OSU is already considered on most of these blue chippers list from time they are in the 10th grade. Expansion will allow them to see them personally for the price of a ticket or even setting up a visit to the hosting team. They will more than likely to be there just as much to watch the opponent as they are to check out host school when OSU or UM come into town. Lesser schools not so much. And I really can't see NJ kids, with all the things the greater NY area has to offer venturing off to someplace like Lincoln. PSU had been the Beast of the East prior to these kids even being born, so their proximity might be enhanced if they are able to regrain the stature they once held.
I think this is an interesting analysis. I think my real question is whether expansion/realignment opens up your established recruiting grounds to those new schools? For instance, is Nebraska getting an uptick in midwest recruits since joining the B1G?
I tend to think that for the most part expansion doesn't do much to alter recruiting grounds, but if it did affect anything, I think it would affect the new entrants to a conference moreso than the existing members.
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