DISCOVERING PLACES RECRUITING MATTERS

MOD NOTE: This is posted on behalf of MGoUser ericcarbs, so please direct your questions to him in the comments below – LSA

METHOD:

I grabbed 247 Composite Ranking from 2002-2014 and #1 class was 50, #2 is 49, etc etc until #50 class is 1 point (if class is unranked, 0 points). Then for every year, I went back 4 previous recruiting classes (EX, for 2013 point total in paranthesis) and had RS seniors and seniors have a 4X multiplier (2010 and 2009), Junior or RS sophmores get a 3X(2011) , RS freshmen or sophmore a 2X (2012) and true freshmen a 1X (2013). (Reasoning: more experienced players should contribute more and usually do.)

Then I grabbed the results of the NC game, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12 (formerly the Pac-10) ACC and SEC (Teams that competed for NC games from 2006-2012). Using the accumulated points, I showed how many points they had and where they ranked that year in the nation using this new point system.

Notes: I chose to stop at 2006 for winners of conferences because 247 composite stops in 2002 and than data can be skrewed if I didn't include 5 recruiting classes. This analysis doesn't include players leaving early, JC players (KSU winning Big 12 and Cam Newton mostly) being ranked lower, players not getting RS and for Michigan especially, players transferring or not qualifying academically (Demar Dorsey).

RESULTS

Teams that compete in NC games have constantly great recruiting (Top 15 for everyone except Oregon). SEC and Big 12 teams usually have great rankings for those who compete in Title Game.

Since 2010, low ranked Big Ten teams began winning the Big Ten which is around the same time the Big Ten began performing poorly in Bowl Games. Might have some correlation but just an observation.

Lastly, I showed Michigan points and ranking in the nation. Results - Michigan is always ranked highly and were in their peak during Rich Rod/ Hoke beginning. However, many of Carr's players transferred when Rich Rod was hired and many of his recruits didn't pan out (poor recruiting and scouting, who knows) and might explain why Hoke won Sugar Bowl right off the bat cause alot of seniors stayed and now we are experiencing the "rebuilding" stage.

POINT COMPARISIONS:

Here are the yearly comparisons of point totals using two programs which typically recruit comparably to Michigan. You’ll note for Michigan that the peak was in 2007 and the totals have been decreasing since, partly due to transfers. Rich Rod didn't have a "bare cupboard" until they all transferred. Although the numbers under Hoke have decreased further, retention has been much better, so soon this trend should reverse. As mentioned, now is when the rebuilding is occurring.