DeuceInTheDeuce

Preface

Dave Brandon has a multifaceted job.  When he's not MGoJetting to catch pedicure appointments in Baton Rouge and Scottsdale, he's trying to decide just what in the hell is an acceptable performance from a Michigan coach. Regardless of what he decides, it will remain enigmatic because when pressed for concrete details Brandon will undoubtedly say something about how it "involves the entire body of work" or something else predictably evasive. It's in his job description.

This past year the Michigan fanbase watched two 3rd year coaches end their seasons in disappointing fashion. One got the boot while the other's seat barely warmed.  We can only speculate as to why. This is the nature of major collegiate athletics.  

A recent post on the MGoBoard led some to question whether Beilein should be shown the door. What follows is an attempt to establish what, if any, progress has been made under JB. This analysis will not compare Beilein’s performance with that of any previous coach, and will focus solely on Beilein’s 3.5 seasons at Michigan.

The Evaluative Basis

Michigan’s basketball coach should:

• Meet or exceed win-loss expectations. Loss of key players and other extenuating circumstances will be taken into consideration.
• Make progress in signing increasingly talented student athletes.
• Maintain established ethical standards (e.g. academic progress, on an off court conduct, etc.)

Criterion One

Record Under Beilein:

• 1: Wins over cupcakes, bludgeoned by conference foes, no postseason
• 2: Few quality wins, bottom half of conference, NIT bubble
• 3: Competitive in nearly all games, average conference record, NCAA bubble
• 4: 20+ wins, top half of conference, solid NCAA bid
• 5: B10 championship caliber, Final Four aspirations

*estimated

Conclusion:

There doesn’t seem to be a decided schematic advantage here.  The (admittedly subjective) results suggest that the aggregate Michigan Basketball team has perhaps slightly outplayed expectations (+0.5) over JB’s tenure. Beilein has successfully met the first criterion, although not overwhelmingly.

Criterion Two

First, a quick note about recruiting data. There are some inconsistencies (year-over-year) in the methodology used by the three major ranking services (ESPN, Rivals, and Scout).  This analysis attempts to use metrics that both mitigate this problem and encompass a large sample size. It won’t be perfect.

The Data

Notes about the data and corresponding graphs:

• ESPN data begins with the 2009 class; no stars were assigned until the 2011 class
• National rankings are top 100 for ESPN, top 150 for Rivals, and variable for Scout
• The data doesn’t include the 2007 class that was recruited primarily by Tommy Amaker
• Graphs are derived from available ranking data. Entries of ND and NR are omitted from any calculations.

Hot Graph Action:

Average Star Ranking by Year

Average ESPN Grade by Year

Average National and Positional Rankings by Year

Percentage of Class Represented by Year

Conclusion:

Beilein’s recruiting is improving. No matter how one looks at the data, it’s clear that on average the recent recruits are more highly regarded than those in earlier classes. Win-loss expectations will rise accordingly. A recruit’s “fit” in the MBB system, and the degree to which recruiting addressed team needs are highly subjective, and thus beyond the scope of this analysis.

Criterion Three

Academic Progress Rate

 *Includes Nebraska

Conclusion:

Michigan’s multiyear APR, which also encompasses two academic years before JB arrived at Michigan, is near or above the level of a typical peer institution. Michigan also posted a perfect APR in the most recent year available. Although this criterion is unavoidably gray, Beilein’s heading of the NCAA ethics committee, his refusal to offer very early scholarships, and the absence of major infractions suggest that he is successfully upholding the values of the University.

Final Thoughts

While watching M start the conference season 1-3 is disheartening, it is prudent to base one’s view of Beilein on practical criteria. Based on the above evaluative methods, there is no reason to believe that Beilein isn’t the right coach for Michigan. Everyone wants championships; be careful not to fire the coach that evidence suggests can attain them.