Denard/UM Offense Effect: Factored out of Opponents Past
Alright, so 1) I'm no Mathlete and 2) This may mean squat come Saturday, but here goes...
We've all been preached to about how our mighty Dilithium powered offense hasn't faced any REAL tests yet, with the inference that MSU will somehow be our first real litmus test. In particular, our first challenging RUN defense faced.
I've also read a few casual at best mentions, acknowledging that our past opponents defensive rankings may be slightly inflated for having played against said dilithium power. Nowhere though, have I seen anything that quantifies this effect, hence my attempt.
Looking at Notre Dame and UConn (chosen because they've played the toughest schedules of our ooponents to date), I factored out the numbers that UM hung on them, both in terms of total defensive yardage allowed, and rushing yardage allowed:
Notre Dame moves from per game avgs of 401 total yards, 153 rush yards down to 368 total, 119 rush.
UConn moves from per game avgs of 338 total yards, 162 rush yards down to 304 total, 130 rush.
For comparisons sake, MSU is currently at per game defensive avgs of 328 total yards, 101 rush yards. While it would appear that MSU does indeed have a better "D" (and specifically, RUN D) than we've seen thus far, I'd argue that their own numbers have been skewed.
Two of their opponents rely heavily on the passing game: Florida Atlantic's offensive total yards to date have been 922 pass yds to 291 rush yrds (45 yds vs MSU). Western Michigan's offensive totals to date have been 1100 pass yds to 307 rush yds (85 yds vs MSU).
In my opinion, we're going to run all over Sparty, Greg Jones or not. MSU will get their points, but I I'm not worried at all about us, I think they're a pretender.
October 6th, 2010 at 12:16 PM ^
October 6th, 2010 at 1:01 PM ^
I totally had forgotten that sparty comes in feeling like a bad-ass because they beat Wisconsin, which who knows jack about them. There is no secret about the badgers - they run. So I'll bet they have been busy reading their press clippings and internet claims how they are top 10 level ... after they beat Michigan.
Very hard to get "up" for a big game, right after a big game. Plus its really their first away game ... even though they haven't left the state. A couple of quick TD's might have them wondering .....
Go Blue !
October 6th, 2010 at 1:54 PM ^
While I agree it is hard to get up for a game after a big emotional win, this IS Michigan v. Michigan State. If you cannot get up for this game regardless of circumstances, you have absolutely no business playing for either school. MSU has always been a highly volatile team emotionally regardless of who their coach was. Its one of the differences between the two schools. Michigan tends to ride on a more even keel, never getting too high after a big win or too low after a bad loss. I think MSU comes in jacked and ready to play and may see some success feeding off that energy but I think offensively we eventually get the better of them. I think our offense is a beast they havent yet seen. I think that if you can say their is a strength on our D, it would be against the run which is what MSU would prefer to do it would seem. If we can play them more or less even against the run we will win. They do not have the kind of QB or WRs Indiana has. JMO...
October 6th, 2010 at 12:44 PM ^
after which all coaches in the Big 10 except Tressel will crap their pants.
October 6th, 2010 at 12:46 PM ^
Although at least one coach will crap his pants regardless.
(Love you Joepa. You're just super old.)
October 6th, 2010 at 12:47 PM ^
but I expect things to get veeeryy chippy (par for the course in a UM-MSU game) and expect them to take a couple of cheap shots at Denard. If he survives them , we win easily.
Do not be surprised at all if when things are said and done Tate has a significant role to play (good or bad) in the outcome.
October 6th, 2010 at 2:25 PM ^
"Do not be surprised at all if when things are said and done Tate has a significant role to play (good or bad) in the outcome."
Strange. I had the same premonition about Tate.
October 6th, 2010 at 12:49 PM ^
They're already focused on the run a bit too much. Denard is poised for his first 300+ yard passing game. Booyah!
October 6th, 2010 at 12:57 PM ^
It would be sweet to open up the first drive with that fake QB dive slant pass. You know the LB's will bite on it, because they are going to be so keyed on Denard running the ball.
October 6th, 2010 at 1:45 PM ^
It would be sweet to open up the first drive with that fake QB dive slant pass.
I bet we see a couple new variations of this as the season goes on, wouldn't be surprised if it's this weekend.
October 6th, 2010 at 12:54 PM ^
How on earth would you ever conclude such a thing? :O)
October 6th, 2010 at 1:33 PM ^
I actually see this game going better for us than last week against Indiana. Chappell just passed all day and tore up our pass defense but the fact is that Sparty is a traditional run based offense. And like this thread has been saying, while our pass defense may be nothing short of atrocious and torn to shreds by any offense that can execute (even UMass...), our run defense is not nearly this bad. I would go so far as to say that we are basically going to score 80-90% of our posessions because Denard is going to be a rude awakening for Sparty's pleasant dreams after Wiscy; but since they like to run more than pass, I think we are going to be able to actually stop some of their drives, unlike we did against Indiana, and that shoul be enough to get us a lead and a win
October 6th, 2010 at 1:35 PM ^
I dont think they're a "pretender", i truly do think MSU is a better team than they normally are...I just think that we are better than them.
October 6th, 2010 at 2:34 PM ^
i do not think they will run, i think they will attempt to chappellbomb us. fortunately, i think our d is like the americans after pearl harbor- we took the shelling and live to fight another day- smarter and better.
October 6th, 2010 at 2:45 PM ^
I know Sparty is ranked top 20 in run defense, but the only real running team they've faced is Wisky. Wisky ran for 184 yards on 29 carries (took out the two QB runs), about 6.3 ypc. I think our offense is going to be just fine.
As for defense it's a little bit the other way. I really don't care if Sparty moves the ball between the 20's, but I'd like to see us force some FGA and avoid more than 2 or 3 really big plays (runs > 30, passes > 50). Those are the killers.
October 6th, 2010 at 2:52 PM ^
October 6th, 2010 at 3:06 PM ^
I think the most realistic poor scenario would be the 2009 Orange Bowl, GT vs. Iowa. Very similar matchup, excellent LBs. Of course, Denard is a lot harder to contain than Josh Nesbitt, and I also think our O-line us better than GT's last year. But, I do think we'll have to exploit the outside early and hit the sidelines for big plays in order to keep Jones from constantly coming straight at Denard, and to force State's inexperienced CBs to cheat down (opening up the deep middle). Establish an early rythym through the air, hit some early screens for 3-7 yeards a pop, and Michigan can control. Michigan is Vegas' odds on favorite for a reason, and I think only Michigan can beat Michigan.
October 6th, 2010 at 4:05 PM ^
Every year, State is going to play their BEST game they'll play all season when they play us. Like a few other schools, playing Michigan is the biggest game of the year and their energy is through the roof. That being said, I think if we come out of the gate and punch them in the mouth early, our offense has a good chance at controlling this game. Bottom line is, State's offense isn't capable of scoring as well as us, so Michigan will end up on top. Michigan wins 42-21. GO BLUE!!
October 6th, 2010 at 4:27 PM ^
If he cannot, then we score a lot of points. Run the numbers all you want. Defenses are going to say they are going to do this or that to stop him. The problem is the 10 other players on offense just seem to get in the defenders way. The TEAM is blocking well. The Rodriguez Revenge Tour is on their sixth stop! Go Blue!
October 6th, 2010 at 5:15 PM ^
but what coach game plans against the opp's strengths? Do you really think his name is Dumbtonio? Every Saturday is something to worry about with our D.
October 6th, 2010 at 8:21 PM ^
Check out this "hind" - site!
http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=376&f=1279&t=3878491
Maybe it's been on here before.....but worth another look!
October 6th, 2010 at 8:58 PM ^
That's hilarious. I'd love to hear what those guys have to say now. I'm going to post this on the board.
October 7th, 2010 at 11:21 AM ^
I think it matters...we will see on saturday. After seeing the lack of discipline in MSU's secondary i think they are in trouble
October 7th, 2010 at 1:23 PM ^
In my opinion, we're going to run all over Sparty, Greg Jones or not.
October 7th, 2010 at 1:51 PM ^
MSU's run defense might be better than previous opponents' defenses, but maybe not. Even if it is somewhat better, that won't be enough to shut down Denard, which means that UM will retain the ability to mix things up. That makes life ugly even for a good defense.
Plus, as good as the offense has been thus far, I think RichRod still has some secret Dilithium Cocktails in his liquor cabinet, ready to unleash on little brother. Even if MSU manages to contain the offense in the first half, I think UM puts the hurt on MSU in the second.
Go Blue!
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