Defensive Adjustments By The Quarter

It would be interesting to compare the Raven's numbers with other NFL teams. I wonder if there is a general trend in the NFL of more points being scored in the 4th quarter (it always seems that way when I watch games). Defenses are more tired, offenses are taking more risks if they are behind, etc. If a similar trend of increased points allowed in the 4th quarter exists between many NFL teams (especially ones with good defenses last season), we shouldn't be as worried about that stat.

There are also rules difference in the 2nd and 4th quarter in the NFL.  The clock stops on out of bounds with 2 minutes left (IIRC) in the second quarter and 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter.  So you get some additional plays from that. 

I think another part of this equation is the fact that drives beginning in the 1st or 3rd quarters carry-over to the 2nd and 4th quarters.  Entering the 2nd and 4th quarters halfway into a drive gives the offense an opportunity to score earlier (and more often) in the quarter than when starting a drive (and quarter) with a kickoff.

Correct me if I am wrong but for the IU game I thought they only scored 35 points while your four quarter total has them at 42. Regardless, this post shows some interesting analysis.

Here is my take.  I believe it is a given that Mattison and his support staff is of a higher quality then GERG and his.  That all said I believe that coaching is a bit overrated.  Michigan's defense was inexperienced and undermaned.  In my opinion the explosions in the 2nd and 4th quarter were due to that.  Here is why.

If you are attempting to mask your team's defiencies by scheme it takes a couple series for the Ocoordinator to adjust and exploit the weakness's of the new scheme.  This happened a number of times to Michigan.  Michigan was less capable of adjusting to the counter adjustment of the offense because of so much inexperience, especially in the secondary.

Dline's usually require a two deep rotation to be effective.  Unless you have a massive clock possesion offense you have the choice of playing tired players or give the 2nd players a series or two in the 2nd quarter.  This issue became even more pronounced after Mike Martin had chronic ankle issues MSU game and later. 

I am of the opinion that if Mattison were the Dcoordinator last year and ran the defense of his choice, the defense would have stunk.  There are claims that UM ran a 3-3-5 because R^2 wanted to get fired.  I am of the opinion he knew he was doomed and had to panic.  UM was forced to scheme because there were not 4 functional down linemen on the entire team. 

We have a very interesting case study coming up this year.  We have a bomb in Campbell who totally failed his expectations.  If a coach who can teach really is important, we can expect to see Campbell not just be servicable, but dominant.  If Campbell sits deep in the depth chart, then it really does depend on the player.  If UM cannot turn around a player with one of the best Dcoordinators in college football and a head coach who was a former Dline coach, then he does not have it.

Campbell in my opinion is absolutely essential to end the 2nd and 4th quarter sieves.  Number one without him, you are limited on experimenting putting Martin on the edge.  Number two, Campbell gives UM 3 people to rotate at the tackle position.  Mattison has hope this year because Black should be good enough to man an end position.  You could go Black, RVH, Martin, Roh and do okay.  Then spell RVH and Martin with Campbell or even better start Campbell and float Martin around.  Maybe Ash will suprise, but I know nothing about him.

So between that and older players in the secondary, UM will do okay on defense next year.  The real square will be 2012 after Martin and RVH graduate.  If Campbell does not turn out, your looking at a very Weisien abyss.   With no Dtackles recruited last year and so far none really this year its like . . . . . .  oops.

It probably won't change the overall data much, but the ND numbers aren't correct.  They scored seven points in the first quarter, none in the 2nd, 10 in the 3rd, and seven in the 4th.

The Raven's D gave up on average 7~8 points by the 4th Q came along according to this data.  So it makes sense that they gave up more points in 4Q since the opposing team will be going all out taking risks to score more points to win.

I don't know if you thought about doing this, but since we all agree that offenses are taking a bunch of risks to score points at the end of a game.  If you wanted to follow this up with a chart containing "Impact stats" such as sacks (interceptions and fumbles may be too random of events to also put in the chart).  We could see if there is an increase in these as well, because an offense risking more to gain more leaves itself quite open for negative plays.  It could be that Mattison's defense is making many of big plays, it just happened that the opposing offense is getting more chances and therefore scoring more.

At the end of last year, Michigan was playing a true freshmen at free saftey, a true freshmen at corner, a MAC player at the other corner, and two redshirt freshmen or true freshmen depending on the game at the strong safety and hybrid.  Compound that with a hobbled Mike Martin and no depth and this defense was going stink.  I'm not saying GERG was any good.  I really enjoyed some of the articles online pointing out the misallignment of our MLB's.  My point is even with the best of coaching this defense was going to stink last year.  You cannot have such short depth charts and be so young and have any success at winning.

Now I stated that in my opinion for UM to have any success beyond average, UM has to have depth aka a functioning Campbell or Washington.  Without either, UM is going to stink at defense again in my opinion.  Worse, in 2012 Martin and RVH graduate.  I still see no one tech tackles recruited yet this year and none were recruited last year.  Were going to find out in my opinion how important coaching is.  I'm not discouting it completely as folks have also mentioned on this board the suspicion that our former linebackers coach bordered on the incompetent.  We will know more in a couple years if Mounton is starting for San Diego.  That would be damning evidence that players were not properly developed.