We looked at offense in a prior post, today we'll switch sides. As outlined previously:

...this an overview of UM Football position by position (as a group not player by player) for 2015 and 2016 so we can have a little bit of an understanding of what is coming down the pike.   Of course going out even 1 year is fraught with unknowns (who will bust, who will come out of nowhere) so looking out 2 years will provide you with many more LOL moments when we look back at this in December 2016.   But we have a long offseason ahead with a lot of open spots on our roster and this helps one begin to roadmap where we really need players in the 2015 class.

My caveats are I don't give a damn what a guy did in HS or how many stars he has, I need to see it on a college football field.  I've been burned too much - and yes I will root for every damn 5 star to show up on campus and drink Maize Kool Aid when it happens but I've seen enough Henrys (throwaway 3 star added to the class in the closing days) over Pipkins to take HS ranks with anything but lots of grains of salt.  So my "assessment" will be more pensive than yours will be, because there are certain positions we are relying on guys that have not done much at all.   I realize most today will just say "Harbaugh" as an answer - and I hope it is simple as that!

I'll do a 1-5 grade for 2015, 2016 (1 being best, 5 being Danger Will Robinson) and then a variability (1 being most certain and best, 5 being least certain).

This post will focus on defense

2015 - Defensive end is one of 2 key areas of concern on the 2015 defense.  Both starters from 2014 leave and what returns is anywhere from backup type players to unknown commodities.  One injury in this position group could be devastating.  A huge issue in 2013 was the lack of pass rush ("the right to rush 4");  2014 saw improvement on that front, especially with Frank Clark (Beyer generally did his damage vs average to weaker teams).  Worries now return that 2015 might look a lot like 2013 in terms of pass rush.  Production leaving is 42 tackles, 5 sacks + 35 tackles, 6 sacks.  One assumes the starters will be SR Mario Ojemudia and JR Taco Charlton (yes he is already a junior!)  Mario was a decent backup in 2014 (31 tackles, 4 sacks) and getting his stamina up to play a ton this year will be important.  Taco (19 tackles, 4 sacks) in many ways is a lot like Clark (although Clark was much smaller) as a raw product that is becoming more refined year by year.  But Beyer and especially Clark played monster minutes last year so this will be a sea change in expectation for both new starters.  Taco seems much more explosive but in limited time, doing it play after play is a different animal then coming in as a specialist.

Behind them it gets welp-ish.  RS SO Henry Poggi (2 tackles, 0 sacks) will need to step it up - probably expectations were too high for him early but right now he seems more like a run stopping end than a pass rusher type but this was a guy with offers from schools like Alabama.  He played little in 2014.  RS FR Lawrence Marshall will be getting his feet wet and fast.   He simply cannot be a guy we whiffed on based on roster depth.. i.e. there is no one else but him left.  Recruiting losses of Hand and McDowell hurt here - although McDowell is at 280 lbs so probably ends up at DT down the road.  Again I cannot stress enough the inability to withstand an injury in this group of 4.  You'd have to take a Wormley type and flex him out I suppose as that is the only guy on the roster who seems applicable as a "kinda defensive end".

2016 - Everything said above applies again but remove Mario who graduates.  SR Taco is on 1 end and one of 2 unproven products - RS SO Marshall or RS JR Poggi on the other.  A 3 man rotation going all year is bad.  We need two 2015 recruits at end.  And they will be guys who will be playing possibility as true FR in 2015 and certainly as RS FR/true SO in 2016.  Urgent needs here.

2015 - a year ago we entered the year saying S and DT were the 2 big unknowns.  But I was outlining how a year from "then" DT could be the team strength.  That came to be but not necessarily with the players I assumed.  I thought it would be Pipkins, Henry, Wormley, and Hurst.  Instead the Order of Kovacs was reborn on Sir Glasgow and he combined with Henry and by year end Mone to provide a pretty stout interior.   Unlike DE not only do both starters return at DT in 2015 but both just flip over to upperclassmen for the first time.  That's exciting.  Unless SO Mone makes a move upward in camp it would appear the RS JR team of Henry and Glasgow will be the starting DTs.  Stats for DTs never tell the tale but IMO Henry (20 tackles, 3 sacks) was becoming the 2nd best player on the defense last year until his injury slowed him down late.  Behind Henry at the 3T will be RS JRs Chris Wormley (21 tackles, 3 sacks) and Matt Godin (9 tackles, 1 sack).  Wormley seems like a guy who either makes a splash play or disappears - not much in the middle.  Godin is not going to wow you but seemed to gain coach's trust with a limited role as the year went by.  RS JR Strobel at this point seems to be a lost cause.

At the NT, run stopper Glasgow (22 tackles, 0 sacks) went from "haha motivation technique" starter in the spring game to "uhh, what?" starter from day 1 in fall 2014 and never gave it up.  While Mone (9 tackles) was getting better and gaining playing time as the year progressed, it appears SR Pipkins (9 tackles) is facing a William Campbell career.  Mone had passed him by the back third of the season and unless something changes dramatically it appears Pipkins won't be getting enough playing time to even try to recreate the one good year Campbell had as a SR.  RS SO Hurst is listed as a NT on the Mgo depth chart but at his size (280ish) he seems more like a 3T; either way the bowl hype of December 2013 didn't lead to much in 2014 (3 tackles); but he is still a baby in football terms.

2016 - No one but Pipkins leaves.  (Unless Henry has a Jerel Worthy type of year and goes to the draft - boo).  So the potential exists for RS SRs Henry, Glasgow, Wormley, Godin along with RS JR Hurst and JR Mone to all be here.  Damn.  Unfortunately that is offset by the scary things I wrote earlier at the ends - can't we have nice things all along the D-line at once?

Also, if this was a 3 year outlook I'd be damn worried about 2017 - we lose everyone but Hurst and Mone (and Pallante).  So we actually could use a 2015 tackle although Hoke was not recruiting that position.  If no 2015 DTs we have a donut hole in the roster like we had at OL for a few years.  A 2016 recruit would redshirt in 2016 (or not RS and be a backup) and then likely be forced into either a starting spot or serious backup immediately in 2017.  So if you are looking a few years ahead, and you want your linemen to be redshirted we actually need some DTs in the 2015 class.  And then another batch in 2016's.

2015 - Jake Ryan and his 112 tackles (2 sacks) leave; SR Joe Bolden and his 102 tackles (2 sacks) return.  Both lacked in the "splash play" department in 2014 but logged crazy playing time.  RS SR Desmond Morgan will return from injury, and one assumes he takes Ryan's MLB role.  With Bolden and Morgan we more or less know what we are getting and there is little variability - if we don't change scheme from 2014 those 2 will play massive minutes (assuming Morgan beats out Gedeon)   From there it's a bit more murky.

2014 was a strange year for what looked like the once sterling career for one SR James Ross III.  He seemed to be squeezed out of a ton of playing time due to scheme and sticking with 2 LB formations for long portions of each game.  I have no idea what to expect out of him in 2015 but this was the 2nd leading tackler on the team in 2013 and sunk to 32 in 2014.  SR Royce Jenkins-Stone is a career bit player and despite tons of spring camp hype in 2014 never delivered (6 tackles).  JR Ben Gedeon (17 tackles) seems the other player destined for decent playing time in 2015 ...leading to a starting role in 2016.  Or maybe he surges ahead of a SR this year?  This is all fine for 2015 but looking out a year it is important that guys like RS SO Mike McCray and RS JR Allen Gant get SOME meaningful playing time if they are future heirs to the starting roles.  This unit overall is solid and relatively assignment sound but seems to lack the heat seeking difference makers you see in the SEC.  Or hell MSU.  We need splash play LBs once again.

2016 - Along with the DEs this could unit could be very troublesome in 2016.  The loss of Michael Ferns to transfer creates 1 less lottery ticket, and the highest ranked one.  Unless someone outside of Bolden, Morgan, Gedeon, and Ross play significant minutes in 2015 you will essentially be returning SR Ben Gedeon and a cast of unknowns.  RS JR McCray and RS SR Gant will have being upperclassmen on their side, and guys like RS SOs Chase Winovich, Noah Furbush, and Jared Wangler will hopefully be providing pressure.   That entire group of 5 is just one big batch of "unknown quantity".  With that said OSU's LB group this year was very young so no excuses for youth - these guys need to be developed and ready to contribute meaningfully in 2016.  But sitting today there is simply no visibility outside of Gedeon.  Unlike DE however there is at least a decent size pool of players to create options down the road.  We need an ILB + OLB in the 15 class.

2015 - Ok maybe I am drinking too much Kool Aid but I could see a 2nd team All Conference award for JR Jourdan Lewis (39 tackles, 2 INT) in 2015.  He - not SO Jabrill Peppers - is right now the best CB on the team BASED ON EVIDENCE ON THE FIELD.  Maybe I just want to see what I want to see but I felt teams began avoiding his side of the field late in the year.  The much hyped Peppers (8 tackles) barely had a chance to get his season off the ground - an injury vs App State, and then another more mysterious injury later (bone chip in knee?) saw him exit stage right.  Essentially we saw 1 full game vs a very bad opponent (Miami OH), and half a game vs I believe Utah - and who knows what % he was in that game.  He did win the starting job out of camp so there is reason for promise but what he actually is or will be in 2015, no one knows.  I am going to assume he and Lewis man the corners.   RS SR Countess (24 tackles) regressed badly in 2014 after a decent 2013.   Confidence or injuries piling up or what it is - no one knows.   But seeing the 2013 Blake v 2014 Blake would be a welcome addition; for now maybe we pencil him in as the nickelback (NNTNB).   Those are the starters and unfortunately there really doesn't seem like anyone behind them to really push based on the rotation of 2014.

JR Channing Stribling (7 tackles) is the only backup who really played last year that returns for 2015 - and he seemed to play less than as a freshman.  I said a year ago at this time dude needs to put on 15-20 lbs before 2014, and he came back at the same weight.  So same mission for 2015, go eat man.  RS JR Terry Richardson was a major recruit whose career just hasn't worked out.  With Ray Taylor and Hollowell out of the rotation the question is who becomes the 5th CB after Stribling?  This is another position where injuries can quickly cause issues as a 3 CB formation is becoming relatively standard.  Options include RS SO Reon Dawson or RS FR Brandon Watson.   As a group the INT production was pathetic in 2014 (2 INTs from the DBs) - we need to see a massive improvement in 2015.

2016 - Blake graduates and one hopes SR Lewis and JR Peppers make up the best CB pairing in the conference.  At this point the guys we have seen little of will be nickelbacks and primary backups to Lewis/Peppers so visibility is very low.  We don't have any 2015 recruits to begin plugging in as backups at this moment. The 2015 class could use two corners, hopefully Marcus Lewis is one.  Obviously Iman Marshall would be a dream catch but he is basically a Trojan until further notice.  My low grade here doesn'y reflect the 2 starters but just a complete lack of visibility on a nickelback and depth - and one injury seems like it could derail this group quickly as the dropoff from Peppers and Lewis to "anyone else" seems severe right now.

2015 - Safety has not been a very good position for UM since Kovacs left and frankly it's not been a defensive strength for most of what seems 10+ years.  SR Jarrod Wilson (50 tackles) will return and while not dynamic seems like the only sure thing back there.  The other S position was a revolving door of RS JR Delano Hill, RS JR Jeremy Clark, and JR Dymonte Thomas.   Hill (20 tackles) won the job out of camp and promptly got hurt.  Then got hurt again.  2014!!  His play late in the year was not inspiring.  Clark (18 tackles) looked good against App State - that was pretty much his peak for the year.  Thomas (27 tackles) was a top 100 recruit who apparently struggles in space - not a great scouting report for a S.  I think under another staff he'd be asked to put on 20 lbs and be an ultra fast OLB who can keep the game simple and attack.  But it seems strange we cannot find a fit for this type of athlete.  Time is running out.  Maybe he turned the corner late in the year? (5 tackles v Maryland) but with Brian throwing away UFRs mid way thru the season it's difficult to assess.  So that's your 4 man rotation and we seem to have another donut hole with no safeties listed on the MGo depth chart... until you get to 2015 recruit Kinnel.  I think we converted 1 of our safeties to RB last year, and guys like Reon Dawson were a S/CB hybrid?  There were some rumors of Brandon Watson playing S in camp last year but with the lack of depth at the CB position he is probably more needed there.

2016 - Wilson i.e. the only sure thing in the S group, graduates and we're left with same crew as above, all a year older.  And RS FR/true SO Kinnel.  Why the hell we dropped the recruitment of Montae Nicholson who already received a few games of starting time for a program that nearly universally redshirts freshmen is beyond me.  He'd probably be starting next to Wilson in 2015 and be the one sure thing in 2016.  Your guess is as good as mine what happens in 2016 - I assume it's Hill and Thomas with Clark and Kinnel as backups.  I hope I feel a lot better about that arrangment on Dec 1, 2015 then I do now.  The grade is low but could be higher if we get good S play from non Wilson's in 2015.  Needless to say, we need recruits at all spots in the secondary.

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Overall - Overall I like the general direction of our 2015 defense but it lacks depth at some key places (DE) and reliability at others (one S).  It's strangely thin in some spots - CB and DE can barely absorb an injury which is not a good way to go into a season.  I think Henry and Lewis will be the 2 stars (replacing Clark and JMFR) and then Peppers is your wildcard.  The LBs seem more like solid guys than splash players.  Mone might take a big step.  DTs and the starting 2 CBs should be the strength.  A surprise from a player like Taco and/or Gedeon would really help.  I assume run defense will remain solid but pass defense is a question.  Even star CBs need DEs who can pressure.  This unit NEEDS to create turnovers unlike the 2014 unit.

2016?  Welp - after multiple years of being EMO about the offense it might be time to switch that to the defense in 2016.  Looking at it from a full team perspective, 2015 is a year to win more with defense (yeah we said that last year too) and 2016 more with offense.  A lot depends on development and hopefully this coaching staff is an improvement in that regard but all 3 LBs, one DE, the only sure S will all be gone.  There are some donut hole roster issues that I thought we had eradicated but seem to have popped back up.  2015 needs to show development of safeties, backup CBs, defensive ends, and backup LBs to flow into 2016.   If 75% of the 2015 recruiting class is defense I would not be against it.  And 60% of the 2016 class.