best wishes
Data about where to play college football if you want a shot at the NFL
Filed under:
[Ed-S: Bumped from boards]
Which team/conference should a high school recruit choose given the a desire to reach the NFL. Here are the tables that I abstracted from databaseFootball.com. They are only through 2010 so they would not include this years rookies. Starred teams have moved conferences recently. ( I gave up trying to star all the past and future moves the Big East is making.) This was a bit of a project with lots of cut and paste into a set of spread sheets. It would appear that one might want to play college football in the BIG 10 if you want to maximize the likelihood that you will play in the NFL although it will still be a long shot that you will play very long even if drafted.
As you look at the databaseFootball.com tables it's obvious just how short the careers of NFL players really are. By the eyeball it is about 4 years on average over the history of the NFL but here is the official NFL line from NFL Communications:
"One fan on the conference call said she has read many times that the average career length of an NFL player is about three years, adding it seemed so many played much longer than that. She asked Commissioner Goodell about his knowledge of NFL career length.
“There is a little bit of a misrepresentation or a misunderstanding on that. Frequently, it is said that the average career is about 3.5 years. In fact, if a player makes an opening day roster, his career is very close to six years,” Commissioner Goodell said. “If you are a first-round draft choice, the average career is close to nine years. That 3.5-year average is really a misrepresentation. What it adds is a lot of players who don’t make an NFL roster and it brings down the average.”
According to a recent NFL Management Council analysis of players who entered the NFL between 1993 and 2002, the average career length for a player who is on his club’s opening-day roster as a rookie is 6.0 years.
That 6.0 average is 88 percent higher than NFLPA Executive Director DeMaurice Smith’s recent claim.
“The fundamental principle of our business model necessarily includes that every player only plays for an average of 3.2 years,” Smith said in a March 31 forum with MBA students at the University of Virginia .
Following are the facts from the career-length analysis (using regular-season and postseason rosters):
- The average career length for a player who makes a club’s opening-day roster (active/inactive roster or injured reserve) in his rookie season is 6.0 years.
- The average career length for a player with at least three pension-credited seasons* is 7.1 years (*a player receives a pension credit for each season in which he spends at least three games on an active/inactive roster and/or injured reserve).
- The average career length for a first-round draft pick is 9.3 years.
- The average career length for a player who is selected for or plays in at least one Pro Bowl is 11.7 years. Of the 318 players who began careers between 1993 and 2002 and made the Pro Bowl at least once, 113 of those players – 36 percent – were on a club’s roster in 2010."
As usual there is a disagreement between management and labor on the facts. Charts? Charts....
|
BIG schools |
Total # NFL players |
active 2010 |
SEC schools |
Total # NFL players |
active 2010 |
|
Ohio |
367 |
29 |
Tenn |
288 |
25 |
|
Michigan |
317 |
29 |
LSU |
257 |
32 |
|
Penn St* |
310 |
17 |
Alabama |
249 |
14 |
|
Mich St |
255 |
18 |
Georgia |
238 |
25 |
|
Wisconsin |
253 |
11 |
Fla |
233 |
23 |
|
Purdue |
245 |
18 |
Auburn |
212 |
19 |
|
Illinois |
244 |
12 |
Ark* |
191 |
12 |
|
Minn |
229 |
9 |
Miss |
179 |
10 |
|
Iowa |
209 |
20 |
Ky |
140 |
3 |
|
Indiana |
176 |
7 |
MissState |
127 |
11 |
|
Northwest |
159 |
7 |
S Car* |
122 |
11 |
|
Nebraska* |
305 |
20 |
Vandy |
77 |
7 |
|
|
3069 |
197 |
|
2313 |
192 |
|
PAC 12 schools |
Total # NFL players |
active 2010 |
BIG 12 schools |
Total # NFL players |
active 2010 |
|
USC |
421 |
24 |
Nebraska* |
305 |
20 |
|
UCLA |
262 |
11 |
Ok |
282 |
10 |
|
Wash |
236 |
8 |
Texas |
255 |
31 |
|
Ariz St |
216 |
10 |
TexAM |
239 |
8 |
|
Colo* |
209 |
11 |
Colo* |
209 |
11 |
|
Cal |
206 |
23 |
Baylor |
173 |
5 |
|
Stanford |
199 |
8 |
Missou |
150 |
3 |
|
Oregon |
174 |
12 |
Ok State |
144 |
8 |
|
Wash St |
161 |
12 |
K State |
137 |
11 |
|
Ariz |
146 |
7 |
Kansas |
135 |
4 |
|
Oreg St |
136 |
12 |
TexasTech |
112 |
5 |
|
Utah* |
103 |
9 |
IowaState |
93 |
4 |
|
|
2469 |
147 |
|
2234 |
120 |
|
ACC schools |
Total # NFL players |
2010 active |
Big East schools |
Total # NFL players |
active 2010 |
|
Miami* (YTM) |
268 |
29 |
Pitt |
272 |
13 |
|
BC |
189 |
13 |
Con |
26 |
3 |
|
FlaState |
179 |
10 |
Syracuse |
220 |
10 |
|
Maryland |
175 |
13 |
W Va |
154 |
2 |
|
Ga Tech |
155 |
15 |
Louisville |
112 |
13 |
|
Clemson |
154 |
10 |
Cinci |
95 |
3 |
|
Virginia |
145 |
13 |
Rutgers |
64 |
10 |
|
Va Tech |
109 |
16 |
SouthFla |
11 |
3 |
|
Wake |
97 |
9 |
|
954 |
57 |
|
NC |
181 |
14 |
|
||
|
NC State |
132 |
14 |
|
||
|
Duke |
91 |
3 |
|
||
|
|
1875 |
159 |
|
||
PS for laughs I looked up the MAC teams too. Temple got most of their player into the NFL while they were in the Big East.
| Temple | 83 | 1 |
| Miami (NTM) | 61 | 1 |
| Toledo | 51 | 5 |
| Eastern | 37 | 3 |
| BG | 49 | 3 |
| Buff | 14 | 2 |
| Akron | 26 | 3 |
| Ohio U | 31 | 2 |
| Western | 40 | 3 |
| Central | 18 | 2 |
| Kent | 39 | 6 |
| Northern Ill | 42 | 5 |
| 408 | 36 |
January 11th, 2012 at 11:38 PM | 
If you are a pro level talent
If you are a pro level talent
January 12th, 2012 at 12:57 AM |
I don't agree with this.
I don't agree with this.
I don't agree with this. Coaching has much to do with it, and that, as well as the scheme you play in, can mean the difference between a higher or lower round, which consequently has an effect on your pay and how you're viewed by the team that drafted you, the amount of time they're willing to invest in you, etc.
Ohio State is the #1 bathroom. I take poops in the bathroom.
Blogging the Virginia Cavaliers at http://fromoldvirginia.blogspot.com.
January 12th, 2012 at 1:25 AM |
I agree with you, but it is
I agree with you, but it is
I agree with you, but it is also true that that goes only so far. NFL recruiters know that stats can be inflated by those things, and not all those things will transfer into the NFL.
Twenty-two Michigan Wolverines
put on the gloves of gray.
And as Revelli played The Victors,
they laid Woody Hayes away.
January 12th, 2012 at 9:01 AM |
posted from iPhone
posted from iPhone
Jerry Rice agrees.
January 12th, 2012 at 12:23 PM |
Bad example. Jerry Rice
Bad example. Jerry Rice
NM
January 14th, 2012 at 9:24 PM |
See: Timmy Chang.
See: Timmy Chang.
See: Timmy Chang.
January 12th, 2012 at 11:00 AM |
You stated "higher or lower
You stated "higher or lower
You stated "higher or lower round" which still equals pro thus proving my point that it doesn't matter where you go to school.
If you are coached like shit and you still run a 4.3 40 and you have all the measurables you're going to get a shot in the league. Hell the Raiders nearly signed Justin Gatlin a few years back...
or uh, Duder, or El Duderino if you're not into the whole brevity thing.
January 11th, 2012 at 11:47 PM |
i'll stir the pot
i'll stir the pot
Isn't it a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy that if player goes to X school and goes pro, that school attracts more high-level players, who in turn go pro, which attracts more high level players, etc. I don't think the school/conference itself matters much. Michigan has had many QBs play in the NFL, but most are not as good as Jay Cutler (jokes aside), who comes from Vanderbilt. Talent is everything. If you're good enough, you'll get your shot. Even a small program like CMU has sent its players to the NFL (Joe Staley, Antonio Brown).
Much respect for taking the time to research, though
January 12th, 2012 at 12:00 AM |
Talent vs. coaching
Talent vs. coaching
I think this is certainly a valid point. Obviously the most successful programs are going to recruit the most talented players to begin with, and those players are going to make the pros more often, so I don't think looking at raw numbers will necessarily tell you all that much. At the same time, however, it seems like coaching ought to have an effect. If two players are both equally talented coming out of high school, but one goes to a school with good coaching and the other goes to a school with bad coaching, it seems like player with the better coaching might have a better shot at making the pros.
I wonder if a better way to study this issue might be to take a bunch of players with marginal recruiting ratings--say, 3-star players on Rivals or guys rated 75 by ESPN--and compare their outcomes (i.e., excluding the high-talent players who would likely make the pros even with mediocre coaching)?
"You will suffer humiliation when the team from my area defeats the team from your area." -- The Onion
January 12th, 2012 at 2:39 AM |
Feast your eyes on Iowa
Feast your eyes on Iowa
Iowa is a great example of turning 3-star talent into NFL players. According to your 2010 active numbers, they have an impressive 20 players in the NFL.
January 11th, 2012 at 11:42 PM |
Notre Dame
Notre Dame
What about Notre Dame?
January 11th, 2012 at 11:45 PM |
You know the answer to that question...
You know the answer to that question...
To hell with Notre Dame.
"You will suffer humiliation when the team from my area defeats the team from your area." -- The Onion
January 12th, 2012 at 12:07 AM |
There has to be something
There has to be something
sacrilegious about that comment but I totally agree.
January 11th, 2012 at 11:53 PM |
I don't think France puts
I don't think France puts
I don't think France puts many people into the NFL.
"Wasn't that Michigan drive just great. That's like Patton riding into Berlin." ~Bob Ufer
January 12th, 2012 at 12:22 AM |
The French have really bad
The French have really bad
The French have really bad attitudes.
Michigan Resurgent? Michigan Resurgent!
Cubby, add the wolverines!
January 13th, 2012 at 5:11 PM |
Dirty Eenglish Pig Dogs we already have two... so go away..
Dirty Eenglish Pig Dogs we already have two... so go away..
France
Charles Michael Romes (born in Verdun, France) was an NFL cornerback with the Buffalo Bills and the San Diego Chargers. He played college football at North Carolina Central University.
Richard Tardits (born in Biarritz, France) played college football at the University of Georgia. He held the record for most sacks in a career at his Alma Mater, until David Pollock broke his record in 2004. He was referred to as “Le Sack” by fans because of his French birth.
Tardits played for the New England Patriots in the NFL.
That is all....
January 12th, 2012 at 12:08 AM |
492 total and 19 playing
492 total and 19 playing
492 total and 19 playing
January 13th, 2012 at 11:02 AM |
What is...
What is...
What is a Notre Dame?
Great content OP!
A proud charter member of the Hoke Pointed at Me Club since 1/12/11.
January 12th, 2012 at 12:03 AM |
If you have the talent
If you have the talent
you will be picked yes.
However, I think if you play with high level players - your skills are better displayed. An average RB can look like a star RB with a an NFL level line to block for him.
So for the borderline cases of talent - it is good to play for a school which attracts other high level players.
In addition, chances are these schools have better connections with NFL teams than some of the lesser programs.
GMAT score =800 = Defensive POTY
January 12th, 2012 at 12:03 AM |
USC --
USC --
wow.
January 12th, 2012 at 12:04 AM |
Interesting stuff. In
Interesting stuff. In
Interesting stuff. In general, big-name schools attract big-name recruits, who in turn play in marquee games on Saturday and that pushes teams to draft them so that they play on Sunday. I'm sure you'll see a slightly uptick in the SEC teams with the increased number of recruits as well as talent down there, but I always suspected that kids who play in the NFL come from all walks of life and schools.
January 12th, 2012 at 12:09 AM |
I was surprised that Dayne
I was surprised that Dayne
I was surprised that Dayne Sanzenbacher and Brandon Saine are both heavily involved on their teams at WR and KR, respectively, considering how they received little or no draft attention. I think in terms of purely draft hype, players from the SEC garner a lot of attention, usually, but not all of them are as good as they are supposed to be. This is probably just a product of the conference being the "best conference in college football".
The "draft boards" that people use are usually very good at abstracting talent regardless of how their college team is doing, but I think the pedigree of school inadvertently still plays a huge role in the determination of who is the #1, #2, etc. WR's for example. So if we take a census of all the players currently in the NFL, I think we'd expect to see about an even number of players from each conference (adjusted for conference "prestige"), which the data above supports. Yet, the very best players aren't all from the SEC, or even Big Six conferences in some cases.
With the SEC dominance over the last decade and all the talent that passes through the region, I'm really surprised that there isn't a huge number of SEC active NFL players compared to other conferences. Alabama, even, only has had 14 active in 2010. At the same time, undrafted players like Sanzenbacher and Saine are able to find their way onto final rosters of NFL teams.
January 12th, 2012 at 12:20 AM |
All the NFL players from Slippery Rock
All the NFL players from Slippery Rock
Paterra, Greg (1989 - 1989)
Porter, Ricky (1982 - 1987)
Sanders, Chuck (1986 - 1987)
Thomas, Enid (1926 - 1926)
January 12th, 2012 at 12:38 AM |
In my opinon
In my opinon
if you took all the former Michigan players in the NFL right now (or probably throughout the last 10 years) they would beat every other college's pro players.
So I say a big national school like Michigan would be the way to go (not saying Michigan is the only school though)
January 12th, 2012 at 7:46 PM |
No RB.
No RB.
It'd be tough to win without a running back.
Pretty much everybody has a hole like that. Alabama and LSU don't have a usable quarterback. Neither does Ohio. Florida would either have to go full Tebow or use Rex Grossman. Ugh.
I looked at this a while back and it's hard to top Cal's NFL squad for quality and diversity--it's an amazing group for a school that isn't top echelon. They cover almost every position--they even have a long snapper and a good kicker, and you'd have Aaron Rodgers handing off to Lynch and Best and throwing to DeSean Jackson and Tony Gonzalez. On defense they're a bit short on numbers and quality up front and you'd have to play a 3-3-5, but at least they can field a full squad.
January 12th, 2012 at 12:46 AM |
18+ active players
18+ active players
Seems to the magic number to hit as a sign of top quality programs over the past twenty years
Surprised to see Oklahoma so low though.
January 13th, 2012 at 2:57 AM |
Also the magic # to hit when you want to stay out of jail
Also the magic # to hit when you want to stay out of jail
.
January 12th, 2012 at 1:16 AM |
FWIW....
FWIW....
CMU has more than 2 players active. (Brown, Staley, Jenkins, Gordy, Zombo, Hartmann) I think that's all.
January 12th, 2012 at 12:37 PM |
Data is only through
Data is only through
2010 so if any of them are rookies this year they wouldn't be included in the database
"But a true champion, face to face with his darkest hour, will do whatever it takes to rise above. A man fights, and fights, and then fights some more. Because surrender is death, and death is for pussies." - Kenny Powers
January 12th, 2012 at 1:23 AM |
great data and very
great data and very
great data and very interesting. you have to consider that alot of teams that play a prostyle offense and defense have a better chance to get players drafted. sans Usc the pac12 has low numbers because there are lots of passing and spread teams...same for the big east and big 12. obviously the Big 10 and Sec play more of a prostyle game on both sides of the ball. tradition and education/smarts have to factor in aswell.. smarter kids have a better shot at certain positions ie center, qb, mlb etc. lots of cool numbers here especially Michigans. thanks for the info.
January 12th, 2012 at 10:15 AM |
Wow, thanks
Wow, thanks
this is great. I was interested in this very topic a few weeks ago and started doing some google-digging. I stumbled upon an article (It's from a Louisianna paper, not national, and is 3 years old) that focused, specificaly, on which conferences NFL starters had come from. (Linked here) The general gist was that the S.E.C., Big 10, and P.A.C.-12 are all on about even footing. Each conference led in various positions.
January 12th, 2012 at 10:27 AM |
Unless I misread this, no
Unless I misread this, no
Unless I misread this, no school has more active players in the NFL than Michigan. Wow.
All you 5*'s, come here.
M'Dog
January 12th, 2012 at 11:28 AM |
Just One
Just One
LSU
Trust me, I know what I'm doing
January 12th, 2012 at 10:50 AM |
Washington State has almost
Washington State has almost
Washington State has almost as many active players as Bama
Your friendly neighborhood Sparty
January 12th, 2012 at 10:51 AM |
While A+ for effort I know
While A+ for effort I know
While A+ for effort I know for a fact the CMU table is incorrect: Cullen Jenkins, Antonio Brown and Joe Staley are all active starting players yet the table only lists 2 active. This doesnt include some others that I believe have been backups.
Still the SEC is the belle of the ball but nothing beats the Big 10 for staying power.
Blue is Faster
January 12th, 2012 at 12:12 PM |
http://xkcd.com/552/
http://xkcd.com/552/
January 12th, 2012 at 5:55 PM |
This is the list from databaseFootball.com for Central
This is the list from databaseFootball.com for Central
Adams, Curtis (1985 - 1988)
Beach, Walter (1960 - 1966)
Bentley, Ray (1986 - 1992)
Bojovic, Novo (1985 - 1985)
Bowman, Jim (1985 - 1989)
Capers, James (1987 - 1987)
Edwards, Tom (1926 - 1926)
Elliott, Tony (1987 - 1987)
Franckowiak, Mike (1975 - 1978)
Ghiaciuc, Eric (2005 - 2008)
Gutierrez, Brock (1997 - 2005)
Hogeboom, Gary (1980 - 1989)
Humphrey, Tory (2005 - 2010)
Jackson, Robert (1982 - 1989)
Jenkins, Cullen (2004 - 2010)
Leigeb, Brian (2002 - 2002)
Podoley, Jim (1957 - 1960)
Rehberg, Scott (1997 - 2003)
January 13th, 2012 at 2:26 AM |
Ray Bentley. Outstanding. I
Ray Bentley. Outstanding. I
Ray Bentley. Outstanding. I didn't know where that guy played, what he did, etc. He's just the most budget color guy ever, and, well, I'm pleased he graduated in the 90's (and not 80's) and went to Central. Just....generally.
January 12th, 2012 at 6:16 PM |
The Wikipedia list of active players for Central.... UhOh
The Wikipedia list of active players for Central.... UhOh
- Nick Bellore - Linebacker, New York Jets[8]
- Antonio Brown - Wide Receiver, Pittsburgh Steelers[9]
- Josh Gordy - Cornerback, St. Louis Rams[10]
- Brett Hartmann - Punter, Houston Texans[11]
- Cullen Jenkins – Defensive End, Philadelphia Eagles[12]
- Dan LeFevour – Quarterback, Jacksonville Jaguars[13]
- Joe Staley – Offensive Tackle, San Francisco 49ers[14]
- Frank Zombo - Outside Linebacker, Green Bay Packers[15)
I checked out the above names and several of them were in the 2010 draft or undrafted free agents who did not play until 2010. Still it makes me lose some faith in databaseFootball.com that they do not list Joe Staley who is going to the Pro Bowl this year and was active before 2010 (drafted in 2007 1st Round). I will do some added checking to see how far off some of the other data is.
January 12th, 2012 at 7:11 PM |
There is no truth on the internet, trust me I am on the internet
There is no truth on the internet, trust me I am on the internet
Wikipedia missed Jamar Adams for Uof M and databaseFootball.com includes him!
Here are the two lists of active players. Remember that databaseFootbal is through2010. Wiki is probalbly more current. Getting the real facts could be a real chore. Grr garbage in garbage out. Italics and bold are areas of disagreement.
Wikipedia
- Adrian Arrington: New Orleans Saints
- Jason Avant: Philadelphia Eagles
- David Baas: New York Giants
- Jeff Backus: Detroit Lions
- Justin Boren: Baltimore Ravens
- Tom Brady: New England Patriots
- Alan Branch: Seattle Seahawks
- Steve Breaston: Kansas City Chiefs
- Stevie Brown: Indianapolis Colts
- Prescott Burgess: free agent[94]
- Perry Dorrestein: Chicago Bears
- Braylon Edwards: free agent
- Jay Feely: Arizona Cardinals
- Larry Foote: Pittsburgh Steelers
- Jonathan Goodwin: San Francisco 49ers
- Brandon Graham: Philadelphia Eagles
- Matt Gutierrez: free agent
- James Hall: St. Louis Rams
- Leon Hall: Cincinnati Bengals
- David Harris: New York Jets
- Chad Henne: Miami Dolphins
- Steve Hutchinson: Minnesota Vikings
- Tim Jamison: Houston Texans
- Jake Long: Miami Dolphins
- Ryan Mallett: New England Patriots
- Mario Manningham: New York Giants
- Zoltan Mesko: New England Patriots
- Jonas Mouton: San Diego Chargers
- Ryan Mundy: Pittsburgh Steelers
- Stephen Schilling: San Diego Chargers
- Morgan Trent: Cincinnati Bengals
- Donovan Warren: Chicago Bears
- Martell Webb: Arizona Cardinals
- LaMarr Woodley: Pittsburgh Steelers
- Charles Woodson: Green Bay Packers
databaseFootball.com
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January 13th, 2012 at 1:28 AM |
Hod does ND stack up??
Hod does ND stack up??
How does ND stack up??
January 13th, 2012 at 11:10 AM |
Hey Angry
Hey Angry
Read up further.
A proud charter member of the Hoke Pointed at Me Club since 1/12/11.
January 15th, 2012 at 11:30 AM |
I don't agree with this either
I don't agree with this either
mostly because the counts are wrong. Looking briefly at the MAC schools, Miami has atleast 2 active NFL players in Jacob Bell been in the league since 2004 and Roethlisberger no qualification needed there. I'm too lazy to look up every school but I am assuming the #s aren't right if I can eye ball one off the top of my head.
January 15th, 2012 at 2:45 PM |
Here's an alternate list.
Here's an alternate list.
January 15th, 2012 at 8:54 PM |
The espn list
The espn list
leaves off Brayon Edwards, Ryan Mundy, Donovan Warren, Martell Webb, Perry Dorrestein. The Wikipedia seems the most complete as far as including all active players. They even include Ryan Mallet and Justin Boren as Michigan players.
If you are a pro level talent you will be a pro. School has very little to do with it.
or uh, Duder, or El Duderino if you're not into the whole brevity thing.