And the MSU faithful think this game is in the bag.....apparently they havent watched our O this year. DR is a beast.
Comparison of RR's Offenses
I posted this a couple of days ago as a comment in a thread, but it got buried pretty quickly, so now that I can post diaries I thought I'd post it again.
I wanted to look at the breakdown of Rich Rodriguez's previous offenses, and in particular the main QB's run-pass balance and the fraction of runs by the QB. I'm only looking at RR in Div 1A (so Tulane OC, Clemson OC, WVU and Michigan), and I'm skipping the mess that was the 2008 offense. Data comes from the year-end statbooks for each team.
Here is the overall production chart. QB is the main QB (from what I could tell) - in 1999 Brandon Streeter got a lot of playing time (mostly passing), and in 2001 Rasheed Marshall got a decent amout of playing time.
|Year||Team||QB||Pass Plays||Pass Yards||Rush Plays||Rush Yards||Total Plays||Total Offense|
|2001||West Virginia||Brad Lewis||357||1811||475||1992||832||3803|
|2002||West Virginia||Rasheed Marshall||279||1753||714||3687||993||5440|
|2003||West Virginia||Rasheed Marshall||252||2034||600||2762||852||4796|
|2004||West Virginia||Rasheed Marshall||259||1993||590||3034||849||5027|
|2005||West Virginia||Pat White||193||1398||625||3269||818||4667|
|2006||West Virginia||Pat White||233||2059||590||3939||823||5998|
|2007||West Virginia||Pat White||265||2067||628||3864||893||5931|
|2010 Proj||Michigan||Denard Robinson||285.6||2887.2||547.2||3892.8||832.8||6780|
|Year||Team||QB||QB Pass||QB Pass Yards||QB Rushes||QB Rush Yards||QB Total Offense|
|2001||West Virginia||Brad Lewis||237||1339||54||41||1380|
|2002||West Virginia||Rasheed Marshall||259||1616||173||666||2282|
|2003||West Virginia||Rasheed Marshall||215||1729||101||303||2032|
|2004||West Virginia||Rasheed Marshall||171||1426||130||684||2110|
|2005||West Virginia||Pat White||114||828||131||952||1780|
|2006||West Virginia||Pat White||179||1655||165||1219||2874|
|2007||West Virginia||Pat White||216||1724||197||1335||3059|
|2010 Proj||Michigan||Denard Robinson||230.4||2419.2||235.2||2172||4591.2|
Denard has already had more passing yards and almost as many rushing yards as 2005-era Pat White. If he averages just over 100 yards passing per game for the rest of the season he'll have more passing yards than any of RR's QBs other than Shaun King. If he kept on his current pace (unlikely), he'd end up with almost as many yards as 1997-era Shaun King. If he averages just over 60 yards rushing per game for the rest of the season he'll have more rushing yards than 2007 era Pat White. For total offense he would need to average just over 160 yards per game to best Pat White's best season, and just over 315 to match Shaun King. At this point it looks like Denard is the best all-around QB Rodriguez has had to date: almost as good a passer as King and as good/better a runner as Pat White.
Next I want to look at the breakdown of plays and yards between run and pass, and in particular the QB's share of production.
|Year||Team||QB||% Rush Plays||% Rush Yards||% of Runs by QB||% of Rush Yards by QB||% of Total Plays by QB||% of Total Offense by QB||QB % Rush Plays||QB % Rush Yards|
|2001||West Virginia||Brad Lewis||57%||52%||11%||2%||35%||36%||19%||3%|
|2002||West Virginia||Rasheed Marshall||72%||68%||24%||18%||44%||42%||40%||29%|
|2003||West Virginia||Rasheed Marshall||70%||58%||17%||11%||37%||42%||32%||15%|
|2004||West Virginia||Rasheed Marshall||69%||60%||22%||23%||35%||42%||43%||32%|
|2005||West Virginia||Pat White||76%||70%||21%||29%||30%||38%||53%||53%|
|2006||West Virginia||Pat White||72%||66%||28%||31%||42%||48%||48%||42%|
|2007||West Virginia||Pat White||70%||65%||31%||35%||46%||52%||48%||44%|
|2010 Proj||Michigan||Denard Robinson||66%||57%||43%||56%||56%||68%||51%||47%|
The first two data columns are the percent of all plays and all yards that come from all runs. The third and fourth are the percent of all runs and rush yards that come from the QB. The fifth and sixth are the percent of all plays and all yards that come from the QB. The seventh and eight are the percent of the QB's total plays and yards that come from his runs.
RR has historically varied a fair amount in how much of his offense comes from running the ball - this year we're about average for what he's done in the past, and less run-oriented than for example 2005 West Virginia. However, our rush offense is by far the most QB-based of any previous offense, far outstripping the one-man show of 2000 Woody Dantzler, and 2007 Pat White. If we look at total offense, this year's team is more QB-focused than any of the Clemson or WVU teams, but actually on par with the Tulane teams. Looking at Denard's run-pass balance he's actually right around Pat White's typical split, though he is certainly more run-focused in his production than any of RR's other quarterbacks.
This is just a high-level overview. I can't break down the kinds of running or passing plays RR is using from this data. The offense certainly feels very different than the Pat White-era WVU teams in formation and play style, and the YouTube highlights of Woody Dantzler I've seen have the QB iso type feel that we're seeing a lot from this year's team. I think the main message is that even within his system RR will adapt his style, both at a high level and at the formation/play level, to match his talent - which is what he should do.
Thanks for the charts. I think that the percentages of DR in the offense, especially as a rushing component, should drop as the RB situation shakes out and teams start crashing in more and leaving gapping holes for the receivers. But yeah, Denard was custom-built for RR's offenses, and it is showing.
He's crazy good even for an athlete in a RB / WR role. He finds holes, makes people miss, and sprints at NCAA Track athlete speeds.
Very interesting to look at. Amazing that Denard could top all those guys.
that DRob is performing right now at Pat White BCS-winning at warp speed levels (PWhite's high % levels). We need to expect DRob's proudction to come back to mere superhuman vice the Ironman levels he's operating at now, but if the RB's pick up the slack or we trade 50 DRob rushing yards for 75-100 more passing yards, we'll still be the deadliest group of football ninjas the NCAA has ever seen.
I feel like we're watching the football equivalent of one of those Chuck Norris / Bruce Lee movies where the guy takes out 30 ninjas all by himself on his way to the Big Boss....
.......are ignoring the other parts of the offense at their own team's peril. Concentrate too much on Denard, and our RB's will have very good days in the run game, and our WR's will have very productive days in the pass game(which will give Denard huge numbers anyway). I am cautiously optimistic that Denard ends with similar or better numbers than he had in the ND game.
Great post. That was some fine statistical analysis.
May I make one suggestion? In your first chart, you might want to add a column for average yards gained per play. This would give an indication of the overall efficiency of the offense each year and provide another point of comparison. Here are the numbers I came up with:
- 1997: 5.84
- 1998: 6.81
- 1999: 5.25
- 2000: 5.76
- 2001: 4.57
- 2002: 5.48
- 2003: 5.63
- 2004: 5.92
- 2005: 5.71
- 2006: 7.29
- 2007: 6.64
- 2009: 5.61
- 2010: 8.14
This year's figure of 8.14 yards per play tops the previously best of 7.29 for 2006, but this year's number is likely to go down with the tougher defenses coming up. In any case, it will be interesting to track this statistic as the season progresses.
By the way, as another point of comparison, the NCAA FBS record for highest average gain per play over the course of a season is held by Hawaii at 8.58 (7,829 yards in 913 plays in 2006).