Communist Football's Almanack - Michigan State Edition

Comrades,

Well, Saturday didn't turn out to be so fun. But cheer up, MGoCommunity: we will resume our winning ways next week, when I fly out to Ann Arbor from New York City to witness dilithium devastation in person.

It's weird to be writing about Denard's stats after a loss. I'm going to look at it this way: losses--especially losses against Sparty--put us all in a sour mood. But few of us expected this team to go undefeated. And perhaps it can serve as some sort of consolation that Denard continues to have a special individual season: that, years from now, we will look back on 2010 and say "I remember where I was there when..." Be honest: how many times did you say that in 2005, when Mike Hart and Chad Henne went 7-5?

And now that we've seen what Denard's stats look like after a bad game, we can be that much more confident in projecting his season totals. Rest assured, Denard's assault on the Michigan, Big Ten, and NCAA record books continues. He remains on pace for one of the most remarkable statistical seasons in college football history.

New in this week's edition is a separate section on Comrade Denard's passing efficiency statistics, which, despite his worst day of the year, remain impressive. My previous diary entry can be found here. If you have found an interesting statistic or record that you think I should add to this list, please put it in the comments section and I'll add it to the original post (and give you credit).

Let me note that all the records here are for Division I-A (FBS). I don't really care about who did what in the other divisions, given the inferior level of competition. Something to keep in mind is that the record books don't actually go back that far; at the national level, official statistics have only been recorded since 1937. It's not clear how rigorously school, conference, and national collegiate records were kept before then. (College football has been around since 1869.) One has to assume that Fielding Yost's point-a-minute teams would have harbored some record-producing players, though the game was quite different then (the forward pass was only formally legalized in 1906). So, to be as precise as possible, we should describe all of these records as modern-era, postwar records.

So, here goes:

Record of the Week

First, the bad news: as I noted last week, if Denard had rushed for 100 yards against Sparty, he would have been the first quarterback in NCAA FBS history to rush for at least 100 yards in six consecutive games. Five quarterbacks, including Denard, have run for at least 100 yards in five consecutive games, but no one has done it in six. I guess that just means it's time for Denard to start another streak.

And now, the good news: With 9 rushing yards against Iowa next week, Denard will become the 38th player in college football history to run for 1,000 yards and pass for 1,000 yards in the same season, with six games left to play. (He briefly joined the 1000/1000 club last week against Sparty, before a 4th quarter sack sent him back down below the threshold.)

In addition, as of Saturday, Denard is the proud new owner of a new Michigan single-season record, for competion percentage with a minimum of 100 attempts. He has compled 67.2% of his passes with 125 attempts; the old record was held by Todd Collins, who completed 65.3% of his passes in 1992. Yes, Denard still has six games left, and therefore this mark could slip from his grasp, but given his remarkable running ability, it is incredible that he is even in a position to set a Michigan passing record.

Rushing Yards by a QB, Single-Game

Denard currently holds the Michigan and Big Ten records for rushing yards by a quarterback in a single game: 258 vs. Notre Dame. The NCAA FBS record is 308, on 22 attempts, by Stacey Robinson of Northern Illinois, against Fresno State, on Oct. 6, 1990. 

Rushing Yards by a QB, Single-Season

Denard currently has 991 rushing yards in 6 games. This projects to 1,982 over a 12-game schedule. He has already destroyed the previous Michigan record for QB rushing yards in a season: 674 by Steve Smith in 1981.

Before you get too overwhelmed by all the numbers in this diary, just stop and think about that for a minute. Denard Robinson, your starting Michigan quarterback, playing before your very eyes, is on pace to more than double a Michigan football record. And not just any record, but one that has stood for three decades. Even if you account for the fact that we're playing a very different style of football now—it's just incredible.

The Big Ten record is 1,270 by Antwaan Randle El of Indiana in 2000; the NCAA FBS record is 1,494 by Beau Morgan of Air Force in 1996. Both of these records are easily within reach. Denard only has to average 83.8 rushing yards a game over the rest of the regular season to break the NCAA FBS record. (He gained 86 against Sparty.)

Rushing Yards by a QB, Career

There's no point in projecting Denard's career rushing totals, since we don't even know how he'll do this year (or if his knee will hold up), nor if he will stay for his senior season. But here are the records:

Michigan's career record is held by Rick Leach (1975-1978) at 2,176 yards: a record Denard will break this year, at his current pace. (Guys like Leach and Steve Smith must salivate at what they could have done in the offense of Comrade Rodriguez.) The Big Ten record is Antwaan Randel El's (1998-2001) at 3,895 yards. The NCAA FBS record is held by Pat White (2005-2008) at 4,480 yards.

The NCAA FBS per-game career record is 109.1 yards by Stacey Robinson of Northern Illinois, achieved from 1988-1990 over 25 games.

Rushing Records (At Any Position)

For a single game, the Michigan record is 347 by Ron Johnson in 1968 against Wisconsin; the Big Ten record is 377 by Anthony Thompson of Indiana in 1989 against Wisconsin; the NCAA FBS record is 406 by LaDainian Tomlinson of TCU in 1999 against UTEP.

For a single season, the Michigan record is 1,818 yards (Tshimanga Biakabutuka, 1995); the Big Ten record is 2,109 yards (Ron Dayne, Wisconsin, 1996); the NCAA FBS record is 2,628 yards (Barry Sanders, Oklahoma State, 1988).

That Barry Sanders record will be around for a while, but remember that Denard is on pace for 1,982 with a 12-game schedule; if he is somehow able to maintain his current pace, and gets to play in a bowl game, he could vault past Ron Dayne and into first place all-time in the Big Ten at any position.

For a career, the Michigan record is held by Mike Hart (5,040 yards, 2004-2007); the Big Ten record is held by Ron Dayne (7,125 yards, 1996-1999); the NCAA FBS record is also held by Ron Dayne, but they list it as 6,397 yards. (Herschel Walker of Georgia holds the record for a 3-year career at 5,259 yards, set from 1980-1982.)

The 200/200 Club

Much has been made of the fact that Denard is the only player in FBS history to gain 200 yards rushing and 200 yards passing twice in regular-season games. To me this is a silly distinction—who cares if it was done in the regular season or a bowl game? If anything, Vince Young's performance in the 2005 Rose Bowl against USC is even more remarkable, given that that USC team is considered one of the most dominant teams of the modern era. Wake me up when Denard gets his third 200/200 game.

Anyway, here are the 200/200 games listed in the NCAA record book, sorted by total offense. You'll note that Denard is the only member of the 240/240 club, and Marques Tuiasosopo is the only member of the 200/300 club.

The 1000/1000 Club

There are 36 quarterbacks (and one halfback, Johnny Bright of Drake) in FBS who have run and thrown for 1000 yards in the same season. Of these, none have both run and passed for 1500 yards (the rushing record for QBs is 1,223).

Incidentally, only two people have joined the 1000/1000 club as freshmen: Brad Smith of Missouri, and Joshua Cribbs of Kent State. Air Force leads the overall list with five different QBs, in six different seasons, in the 1000/1000 club. (It is interesting that an instrument of American capitalist imperialism, the U.S. Air Force Academy, is the premier exponent of Communist Football.)

Denard can join the 1000/1000 club—halfway through the season—by rushing for 9 yards against Iowa (he has already thrown for 1,223). If he stays healthy, he should easily become the first member of the 1500/1500 club. I've sorted this list by rushing yards.

I've also added 2010 season totals for Taylor Martinez, Cam Newton, and Colin Kaepernick, three dual-threat quarterbacks who are likely to surpass 1000/1000 this year (Kaepernick already did so in 2008 and 2009).

Total Offense

Denard already owns the Michigan single-game total offense record (502 yards against Notre Dame), and is on pace to annihilate John Navarre's single-season total offense record of 3,240 in 2003 (Denard projects to an astounding 4,428 yards after 6 games).

The Big Ten single-game total offense record is 585 yards by Dave Wilson of Illinois, vs. Ohio State in 1980. The Big Ten single-season total offense record is 4,189 yards by Drew Brees of Purdue in 2000, which is well within Denard's reach. Denard has to average 329.2 yards of total offense in his next six games to pass Brees; he is currently averaging 369.0.

The NCAA total offense records are dominated by prolific passers. Those records appear to be unattainable by Denard: 732 yards for a single game (David Klingler, Houston vs. Arizona State, 1990); 5,976 for a season (B.J. Symons, Texas Tech, 2003); 16,910 for a career (Timmy Chang, Hawaii, 2000-2004).

Total Offense Per Play

As with total offense records, these will be tough for Denard to keep pace with, but he is right up there at the moment. Through the Sibling Rivalry, Denard has 2,214 yards of total offense in 224 plays, for an average of 9.1.

Here are the NCAA FBS records for a single game: 14.3 by Jason Martin (La. Tech vs. Toledo, 1996) in 37 plays and 9.9 by David Klingler (Houston vs. TCU, 1990) in 63 plays. Denard came pretty close to Martin in the Indiana game, where in 35 plays he averaged 14.1 yards per play (which is almost certainly a Michigan and quite likely a Big Ten record):

As you can see in the table, for a single season (minimum 3,000 yards), the record is 9.2 by Colt Brennan (Hawaii, 2006). For a career (minimum 7,500 yards) it's 8.7 by Sam Bradford (Oklahoma, 2007-2009).

Passing Efficiency

Passing efficiency is a statistic that rewards quarterbacks for yards, touchdowns, and completions per attempt, and punishes them for interceptions per attempt. The NCAA formula, which differs from the NFL one, is:

[ { (8.4 * yards) + (330 * touchdowns) - (200 * interceptions) + (100 * completions) } / attempts ]

Denard's 2010 passing efficiency is currently 164.1; his career efficiency (including last year) is 149.7, which would be a Michigan record if he keeps that pace. Here are Michigan's pass efficiency records:

• Highest efficiency rating, season (min. 100 attempts): 173.3 (Bob Chappuis, 1947) (Denard is at 164.1 after 125 attempts, good for 2nd all-time)
• Highest efficiency rating, career (min. 200 attempts): 148.1 (Elvis Grbac, 1989-1992) (Denard is at 149.7 for his career after 156 attempts)

The Big Ten single-season record is held by Kerry Collins of Penn State, who hit 172.9 in 1994. If Denard's end-zone INT epidemic remains a one-game phenomenon, he could still break the Big Ten record. The NCAA FBS record belongs to Colt Brennan of Hawaii, who reached 186.0 in 2006: likely out of reach.

Other Michigan Passing Records

At the end of 2009, here were some of the other Michigan passing records. Denard could break some of the completion percentage records (Tate broke one as well):

• Highest completion percentage, game (min. 10 attempts): 92.3% (Jim Harbaugh, vs. Purdue, 1985, 13 attempts) (Broken by Tate Forcier, 100% in 12 attempts, vs. Bowling Green)
• Highest completion percentage, game (min. 20 attempts): 90.9% (Elvis Grbac, vs. Notre Dame, 1991, 22 attempts) (Denard is 2nd with 86.3% on 22 attempts vs. Connecticut)
• HIghest completion percentage, season (min. 100 attempts): 65.3% (Todd Collins, 1992) (Denard is at 67.2% with 125 attempts)
• Highest completion percentage, career (min. 200 attempts): 64.3% (Todd Collins, 1991-1994) (Denard is at 62.8% with 156 attempts, good for 2nd all-time)
• Yards per completion, game (min. 5 completions): Rick Leach, 36.3 vs. Purdue, 1975 (Denard's best is 27.7 with 10 attempts vs. Indiana, good for 4th all-time)
• Yards per completion, game (min. 10 completions): Jim Harbaugh, 30.0 vs. Indiana, 1986 (Denard's 27.7 Indiana performance good for 2nd all-time)
• Yards per completion, season (min. 60 completions): Bob Chappuis, 18.8, 1947 (Denard is at 14.6 with 84 completions, good for h all-time)
• Yards per completion, career (min. 120 completions): Rick Leach, 17.1, 1975-1978 (Denard is at 14.4 with 98 completions, good for 8th all-time)

Other Michigan Rushing Records

At the end of 2009, here were the other relevant Michigan rushing records. On average yards per carry, he owns one of the single-game records Michigan tracks, but is surprisingly far from the other ones (not that that couldn't change in a hurry). The single-season and career records are within reach:

• Average gain per rush, single-game (min. 5 carries): 25.80, Denard Robinson vs. Bowling Green (previous record was Leroy Hoard, 18.28 ypc vs. Indiana, 1988)
• Average gain per rush, single-game (min. 10 carries): 18.00, Rob Lytle vs. MSU, 1976 (Denard: 11.42 vs. Indiana on 19 carries)
• Average gain per rush, single-game (min. 15 carries): 15.70, Tyrone Wheatley vs. Washington, 1993 Rose Bowl (Denard: 11.42 vs. Indiana on 19 carries)
• Average gain per rush, single-game (min. 20 carries): 11.19, Ron Johnson vs. Wisconsin, 1968 (Denard: 9.21 vs. Notre Dame on 28 carries)
• Average gain per rush, single-season (min. 75 carries): 7.34, Tyrone Wheatley, 1992 (Denard 2010: 8.33 on 119 carries)
• Average gain per rush, career (min. 200 carries): 6.29, Jon Vaughn, 1989-1990 (Denard: 7.14 on 188 carries)
• 100-yard rushing games, season: 10, Jamie Morris, 1987 (Denard has 5)
• 150-yard rushing games, season: 6, Anthony Thomas, 2000 (Denard has 3)
• 200-yard rushing games, season: 3, Mike Hart, 2004 (Denard has 2)

Acknowledgments

Thanks to tf (Michigan rushing single-game record) and danieljpaul (Denard's season totals) for corrections. H/T to tubauberalles and enlightenedbum for tracking down the FBS single-game QB rushing record. Raoul and UM in VA persuaded me to post the total offense numbers, and pointed out Denard's ridiculous per-play stats, which I also added to the diary. Trebor pointed out that we should keep an eye on the impressive seasons of Taylor Martinez and Cam Newton.