Communist Football's Almanack - Iowa Edition

Comrades,

Well, we lost again. But I have to say, I had a fantastic time at the game. It was a perfect fall day for football: clear skies and 64 degrees. The crowd was so loud that I couldn't hear myself talk, especially during the valiant comeback effort. I had front-row seats in Section 43 (visitor's side, across from the student section around the 20), which was peppered with the occasional pleased, but polite, Iowa fan. Even my girlfriend, who wasn't into football at all before attending my Communist Football Reeducation Camp, had a great time, and started to sing "The Victors" along with the band. If the crowd is like this now, I can't wait to see how it will be when we are MNC contenders.

On with the show:

Quick Links

Prefatory Verbiage • New This Week • Week in Review • Record of the Week • QB Rushing, Game • QB Rushing, Season • QB Rushing, Career • Rushing (Any Position) • 200/200 Club • 1000/1000 Club • Total Offense • Total Offense Per Play • Passing Efficiency • Other M Passing • Other M Rushing • Standard Disclaimers • Acknowledgments • Comments

Prefatory Verbiage

• Previous editions. Here are the links to the post-MSU and post-Indiana editions of this Almanack.
• Suggestions are welcome. If you have found an interesting statistic or record that you think I should add to this list, please put it in the comments section and I'll add it to the original post (and give you credit).
• Review the disclaimers. Football has evolved considerably over its 141-year history, much more so than other major sports, and that is important to keep in mind when talking about all-time records. The existence of this diary is not meant to imply that individual achievement is more important than the achievement of the team.

New This Week

New in this week's edition is a Week in Review section that summarizes Denard's stats from Saturday, and also touches on the performances of the other prominent dual threat QBs in FBS: Cam Newton, Taylor Martinez, and Colin Kaepernick. I also added the "Quick Links" section above, for easy navigation.

Week in Review: Not As Bad As You Might Think

Even though Denard only played for the first two quarters and five plays of the third, he didn't have as terrible of a game statistically as one might have expected. He rushed for 105 yards on 18 carries (5.8 YPC), and had a 72% completion rate (13 of 18 for 96 yards). The 1 INT and lack of multiple passing TDs did kill his QB rating; he left the game with a rating of 124.24, his third-worst total (behind 111.6 vs. MSU and 119.5 vs. ND). Other than the INT, Denard's performance is encouraging news, given that it came against a strong defense ranked in the top 5 nationally in most statistical categories. Hopefully his shoulder heals up over the bye week.

Of the other prominant dual-threat QBs, Cam Newton was the only one who had a great day: in a 65-43 shootout against Arkansas, he ran for 188 and 3 TDs and threw for 140 and 1 TD (no INTs). Colin Kaepernick threw for 159 (2 TDs, 2 INTs) but ran for just 30 in a losing effort against Hawaii. Taylor Martinez ran for 21 and threw for 63 (0 TDs, 0 INTs) in another Huskers loss at the hands of Texas.

Record of the Week: Big Ten QB Rushing Yards, Single-Season

If Denard gains 175 rushing yards against Penn State (hardly inconceivable against PSU's 58th-ranked rush defense), he will own the Big Ten single-season record for rushing yards by a quarterback, currently held by Antwaan Randle El of Indiana (1,270 yards during the 2000 season).

Denard, on his first drive against Iowa, became the 30th FBS player to join the 1000/1000 club. (He had done so briefly against MSU, before a 4th quarter sack sent him back down below the threshold.)

By completing 72% of his attempts against Iowa, he extended his Michigan single-season record for competion percentage with a minimum of 100 attempts. He has compled 67.8% of his passes with 143 attempts; the old record was held by Todd Collins, who completed 65.3% of his passes in 1992. Yes, Denard still has five games left, and therefore this mark could slip from his grasp, but given his remarkable running ability, it is incredible that he is even in a position to set a Michigan passing record. (For his career, Denard's completion percentage is 63.8%; the Michigan record is Todd Collins' at 64.3% from 1991-1994.)

Speaking of running abiltiies, Denard against Iowa came into possession of the Michigan career yards-per-carry record with a minimum of 200 attempts, with 7.0 YPC on 206 carries. The previous record had been held by 6.3 YPC by Jon Vaughn (from 1989-1990). Denard also owns Michigan's single-season YPC record at 8.0; the previous mark had been Tyrone Wheatley's at 7.3 (in 1992). As with the passing records above, Denard could theoretically fall below these thresholds in the future.

Rushing Yards by a QB, Single-Game

Denard currently holds the Michigan and Big Ten records for rushing yards by a quarterback in a single game: 258 vs. Notre Dame. The NCAA FBS record is 308, on 22 attempts, by Stacey Robinson of Northern Illinois, against Fresno State, on Oct. 6, 1990. 

Rushing Yards by a QB, Single-Season

Denard currently has 1,096 rushing yards in 7 games. This projects to 1,876 over a 12-game schedule. He has already destroyed the previous Michigan record for QB rushing yards in a season: 674 by Steve Smith in 1981.

Before you get too overwhelmed by all the numbers in this diary, just stop and think about that for a minute. Denard Robinson, your starting Michigan quarterback, playing before your very eyes, is on pace to more than double a Michigan football record. And not just any record, but one that has stood for three decades. Even if you account for the fact that we're playing a very different style of football now—it's just incredible.

The Big Ten record is 1,270 by Antwaan Randle El of Indiana in 2000; the NCAA FBS record is 1,494 by Beau Morgan of Air Force in 1996. Both of these records are easily within reach. Denard only has to average 80 rushing yards a game over the rest of the regular season to break the NCAA FBS record.

Rushing Yards by a QB, Career

There's no point in projecting Denard's career rushing totals, since we don't even know how he'll do this year (or if his knee will hold up), nor if he will stay for his senior season. But here are the records:

Michigan's career record is held by Rick Leach (1975-1978) at 2,176 yards: a record Denard will break this year, at his current pace. Denard needs to average 146 rushing yards a game to take this title. (Guys like Leach and Steve Smith must salivate at what they could have done in the offense of Comrade Rodriguez.) The Big Ten record is Antwaan Randel El's (1998-2001) at 3,895 yards. The NCAA FBS record is held by Pat White (2005-2008) at 4,480 yards.

The NCAA FBS per-game career record is 109.1 yards by Stacey Robinson of Northern Illinois, achieved from 1988-1990 over 25 games.

Rushing Records (At Any Position)

For a single game, the Michigan record is 347 by Ron Johnson in 1968 against Wisconsin; the Big Ten record is 377 by Anthony Thompson of Indiana in 1989 against Wisconsin; the NCAA FBS record is 406 by LaDainian Tomlinson of TCU in 1999 against UTEP.

For a single season, the Michigan record is 1,818 yards (Tshimanga Biakabutuka, 1995); the Big Ten record is 2,087 yards (Larry Johnson, Penn St., 2002); the NCAA FBS record is 2,628 yards (Barry Sanders, Oklahoma State, 1988). Denard can break Touchdown Tim's Michigan record by averaging 145 yards per game over the rest of the season.

That Barry Sanders record will be around for a while, but remember that Denard is on pace for 1,879 with a 12-game schedule; if he is able to maintain his current pace, and gets to play in a bowl game, Larry Johnson's Big Ten record would not be out of reach.

For a career, the Michigan record is held by Mike Hart (5,040 yards, 2004-2007); the Big Ten record is held by Ron Dayne (7,125 yards, 1996-1999); the NCAA FBS record is also held by Ron Dayne, but they list it as 6,397 yards. (Herschel Walker of Georgia holds the record for a 3-year career at 5,259 yards, set from 1980-1982.)

The 200/200 Club

Much has been made of the fact that Denard is the only player in FBS history to gain 200 yards rushing and 200 yards passing twice in regular-season games. To me this is a silly distinction—who cares if it was done in the regular season or a bowl game? If anything, Vince Young's performance in the 2005 Rose Bowl against USC is even more remarkable, given that that USC team is considered one of the most dominant teams of the modern era. Wake me up when Denard gets his third 200/200 game.

Anyway, here are the 200/200 games listed in the NCAA record book, sorted by total offense. You'll note that Denard is the only member of the 240/240 club, and Marques Tuiasosopo is the only member of the 200/300 club.

The 1000/1000 Club

There are 30 quarterbacks (and one halfback, Johnny Bright of Drake) in FBS who have run and thrown for 1000 yards in the same season. Of these, none have both run and passed for 1500 yards (the rushing record for QBs is 1,223).

Seven quarterbacks have achieved this milestone multiple times: Brad Smith (thrice), Colin Kaepernick (twice and counting), Vince Young (twice), Pat White (twice), Beau Morgan (twice), Joe Webb (twice), and Joshua Cribbs (twice). Only two people have joined the 1000/1000 club as freshmen: Brad Smith of Missouri, and Joshua Cribbs of Kent State. Air Force leads the overall list with five different QBs, in six different seasons, in the 1000/1000 club. (It is interesting that an instrument of American capitalist imperialism, the U.S. Air Force Academy, is the premier exponent of Communist Football.)

As noted above, Denard joined the 1000/1000 club on his first drive against Iowa. If he stays healthy, he should easily become the first member of the 1500/1500 club. The list below of 1000/1000 members is sorted this list by rushing yards.

I've also added 2010 season totals for Cam Newton, Taylor Martinez, and Colin Kaepernick, three dual-threat quarterbacks who are likely to surpass 1000/1000 this year (Kaepernick already did so in 2008 and 2009).

* Big Ten record for rushing yards by a quarterback

Total Offense

Denard already owns the Michigan single-game total offense record (502 yards against Notre Dame), and is on pace to annihilate John Navarre's single-season total offense record of 3,240 in 2003 (Denard projects to an astounding 4,140 yards after 7 games).

The Big Ten single-game total offense record is 585 yards by Dave Wilson of Illinois, vs. Ohio State in 1980. The Big Ten single-season total offense record is 4,189 yards by Drew Brees of Purdue in 2000, which is well within Denard's reach. Denard has to average 355 yards of total offense in his next six games to pass Brees; he is currently averaging 345.

The NCAA total offense records are dominated by prolific passers. Those records appear to be unattainable by Denard: 732 yards for a single game (David Klingler, Houston vs. Arizona State, 1990); 5,976 for a season (B.J. Symons, Texas Tech, 2003); 16,910 for a career (Timmy Chang, Hawaii, 2000-2004).

Total Offense Per Play

As with total offense records, these will be tough for Denard to keep pace with, but he is right up there at the moment. Through the Iowa game, Denard has 2,415 yards of total offense in 280 plays, for an average of 8.6.

Here are the NCAA FBS records for a single game: 14.3 by Jason Martin (La. Tech vs. Toledo, 1996) in 37 plays and 9.9 by David Klingler (Houston vs. TCU, 1990) in 63 plays. Denard came pretty close to Martin in the Indiana game, where in 35 plays he averaged 14.1 yards per play (which is almost certainly a Michigan and quite likely a Big Ten record):

As you can see in the table, for a single season (minimum 3,000 yards), the record is 9.2 by Colt Brennan (Hawaii, 2006). For a career (minimum 7,500 yards) it's 8.7 by Sam Bradford (Oklahoma, 2007-2009).

Passing Efficiency

Passing efficiency is a statistic that rewards quarterbacks for yards, touchdowns, and completions per attempt, and punishes them for interceptions per attempt. The NCAA formula, which differs from the NFL one, is:

[ { (8.4 * yards) + (330 * touchdowns) - (200 * interceptions) + (100 * completions) } / attempts ]

Denard's 2010 passing efficiency is currently 159.09; his career efficiency (including last year) is 147.1, which would be close to a Michigan record if he keeps that pace. Here are Michigan's pass efficiency records:

• Highest efficiency rating, season (min. 100 attempts): 173.3 (Bob Chappuis, 1947) (Denard is at 159.1 after 143 attempts, good for 6th all-time)
• Highest efficiency rating, career (min. 200 attempts): 148.1 (Elvis Grbac, 1989-1992) (Denard is at 147.1 for his career after 174 attempts)

The Big Ten single-season record is held by Kerry Collins of Penn State, who hit 172.9 in 1994. The NCAA FBS record belongs to Colt Brennan of Hawaii, who reached 186.0 in 2006: likely out of reach.

Other Michigan Passing Records

At the end of 2009, here were some of the other Michigan passing records. Denard could break some of the completion percentage records (Tate broke one as well):

• Highest completion percentage, game (min. 10 attempts): 92.3% (Jim Harbaugh, vs. Purdue, 1985, 13 attempts) (Broken by Tate Forcier, 100% in 12 attempts, vs. Bowling Green)
• Highest completion percentage, game (min. 20 attempts): 90.9% (Elvis Grbac, vs. Notre Dame, 1991, 22 attempts) (Denard is 2nd with 86.3% on 22 attempts vs. Connecticut)
• HIghest completion percentage, season (min. 100 attempts): 65.3% (Todd Collins, 1992) (Denard is at 67.8% with 125 attempts)
• Highest completion percentage, career (min. 200 attempts): 64.3% (Todd Collins, 1991-1994) (Denard is at 63.8% with 174 attempts, good for 2nd all-time)
• Yards per completion, game (min. 5 completions): Rick Leach, 36.3 vs. Purdue, 1975 (Denard's best is 27.7 with 10 attempts vs. Indiana, good for 4th all-time)
• Yards per completion, game (min. 10 completions): Jim Harbaugh, 30.0 vs. Indiana, 1986 (Denard's 27.7 Indiana performance good for 2nd all-time)
• Yards per completion, season (min. 60 completions): Bob Chappuis, 18.8, 1947 (Denard is at 13.6 with 97 completions, below Michigan's top 10 all-time)
• Yards per completion, career (min. 120 completions): Rick Leach, 17.1, 1975-1978 (Denard is at 13.6 with 111 completions, below Michigan's top 10 all-time)

Other Michigan Rushing Records

At the end of 2009, here were the other relevant Michigan rushing records. On average yards per carry, he owns one of the single-game records Michigan tracks, but is surprisingly far from the other ones (not that that couldn't change in a hurry). The single-season and career records are within reach:

• Average gain per rush, single-game (min. 5 carries): 25.80, Denard Robinson vs. Bowling Green (previous record was Leroy Hoard, 18.28 ypc vs. Indiana, 1988)
• Average gain per rush, single-game (min. 10 carries): 18.00, Rob Lytle vs. MSU, 1976 (Denard: 11.42 vs. Indiana on 19 carries)
• Average gain per rush, single-game (min. 15 carries): 15.70, Tyrone Wheatley vs. Washington, 1993 Rose Bowl (Denard: 11.42 vs. Indiana on 19 carries)
• Average gain per rush, single-game (min. 20 carries): 11.19, Ron Johnson vs. Wisconsin, 1968 (Denard: 9.21 vs. Notre Dame on 28 carries)
• Average gain per rush, single-season (min. 75 carries): 7.34, Tyrone Wheatley, 1992 (Denard 2010: 8.00 on 137 carries)
• Average gain per rush, career (min. 200 carries): 6.29, Jon Vaughn, 1989-1990 (Denard: 7.02 on 206 carries)
• 100-yard rushing games, season: 10, Jamie Morris, 1987 (Denard has 6)
• 150-yard rushing games, season: 6, Anthony Thomas, 2000 (Denard has 3)
• 200-yard rushing games, season: 3, Mike Hart, 2004 (Denard has 2)

Standard Disclaimers

• Wins are more important than stats. The existence of this diary is not meant to imply that individual achievement is more important than the achievement of the team. It is, instead, to pay tribute to Denard's exceptional individual achievement within the context of a (hopefully) successful team. With a few minor exceptions, Denard's stats don't come at the expense of the team: when he rushes for 250 yards or has a QB rating of 270, the team is usually doing well. If you object to this point of view, you don't have to read further.
• Past performance is not a predictor of future results. To the degree I describe end-of-season projections for Denard, I do so simply, rather than Mathletically: (current total) * (12-game season) / (games played to date). Clearly, we are playing better defenses in the second half of the year than we did in the first, and this should be taken into account when reading these end-year projections.
• Projections are for a 12-game season. Beginning in 2002, the NCAA revised its single-season and career records to include postseason games. If Michigan becomes bowl-eligible, and thereby adds a 13th game to its schedule, this would significantly enhance Denard's impact on the record books. If and when Michigan wins its sixth game this year, I will revise all projections accordingly.
• The quarterback position has evolved significantly. The forward pass was only formally legalized in 1906. From the 1910s until the 1950s, the most common college football formation was Pop Warner's single-wing, in which the quarterback's role was primarily as a blocker, and most passes were thrown by a tailback or halfback. The idea of a quarterback as the primary passer began to take hold after World War II, when coaches such as Clark Shaughnessy at Chicago and Stanford and Paul Brown at Ohio State took advantage of a recently redesigned football that was easier to throw, and married the ancient T formation to the threat of longer passes downfield.
• The record books are murky from 1869 to 1937. Something to keep in mind is that the record books don't actually go back that far in time. At the national level, official statistics have only been recorded since 1937: a mere 52 percent of college football's history. It's not clear how rigorously school, conference, and national collegiate records were kept before then. (College football has been around since 1869.) One has to assume that Fielding Yost's point-a-minute teams would have harbored some record-producing players, though the game was quite different then, as noted above. So, to be as precise as possible, we should describe all of these records as modern-era, postwar records.
• Post-1978 records are for Division I-A only. Let me note that all the records here are for Division I-A (FBS), but do include all Division I records prior to the I-A / I-AA split in 1978. I don't really care about who did what in the other divisions, given the inferior level of competition. Personally, I would prefer to eliminate the non-automatically qualifying BCS conferences, but since the NCAA doesn't do that, I won't.

Acknowledgments

Thanks to tf (Michigan rushing single-game record) and danieljpaul (Denard's season totals) for corrections. H/T to tubauberalles and enlightenedbum for tracking down the FBS single-game QB rushing record. Raoul and UM in VA persuaded me to post the total offense numbers, and pointed out Denard's ridiculous per-play stats, which I also added to the diary. Trebor pointed out that we should keep an eye on the impressive seasons of Taylor Martinez and Cam Newton.