Come Out From The Bomb Shelter Chicken Little

Well said.

I was working on the same theroy, I was just looking a more data to support everything you just stated.  Here is what I came up with in addition to what you already presented:

Here are the Offensive ranking of the next three games (I focused on these because I believe these are the most winnable):

Team          Rushing     Passing     Overall

Penn St.          85               70               85

Illinois              29              114             84

Purdue            27               104            72

What I see there are three teams that do not have good passing games.  For reference points Indiana is 5th(!), ND is 18th, Iowa is 30th, MSU is 47th, and UCONN is 91st.  So each of next three opponents have yet to demostrate they could take advantage of our biggest weakness.

In addition, I have been banging the drum the past 2 weeks that TOM was going to be a huge factor.  And that remains so for the balance of the season.  Given the data you provided, plus the information listed above.  I believe that RR will lean on his improving O-Line and run the ball heavily.  Taking advantage of the passing game off of Play Action - this is when it works the best.

Michigan needs to win at least 2 of the next 3 (I think they will win all 3) to fit right in with most fans perspective outlook on this season.  I went with 8-4, and I am sticking to it with them picking up these next 3 games. 

That means RR is staying.  That means bowling (Jacksonville here we come?).  That means finishing up what will be a sick recruiting class (Zettel, Walls, Crawford, Watkins, Jerrigens?, Frost, etc).  It all adds up to an improving program.  Not a finished product, but getting better.....

I am not as rosy in my expectations for the Wisconsin game as the original poster - still a winnable game, but more in the same sense that MSU and Iowa were winnable if we executed our game plan.

Therefore, the next three games makes or breaks the season.  Between those three contests and the bowl game, we're going to need 3 wins to keep the progress train moving on schedule (recruiting impact, for example, minimizing the distraction of the RR haters, etc.)

Let's start with Penn State - potentially the most winnable game.  Illini made a game out of OSU and (for 3 quarters) MSU.  Purdue has managed to beat us the last two years with magic pixie dust and made a game of ND - you can't look past them at this point. 

is fun. It is even better when applied to what will happen to Michigan this season. Thank you for the post and logic. I live in PA and believe me the mood is grimmer than being 5-2 and having an offense that could conquer a third world country with a bad defense. Injuries, worries JoePa won't get 400 wins this year, rumblings of getting rid of JoePa, Freshman QB and his cursed arm, depleted OL, hoping to get some pieces back by the Michigan game on defense, and a plethora of other things.

I believe Michigan will win big, save implosion, against a injured and demoralized PSU team. They have to prepare for Minnesota this week while Michigan gets two weeks to prepare for them. The only thing in their favor October 30th will be it is a night home game/white out. So based on sane logic, I think we should be optimistic and putting pictures of kitty cats in slings on the post so we can all chuckle.

I would love to meet some of the Mgobloggers on here, I will be at the game and pretty sure I will be sitting in the Michigan section.

GO BLUE!

Excellent points on the TOs. If you look at TOM for Iowa (#5) and MSU (#9), they are better in TOM than future opponents.

The only caveat is that Iowa and MSU have benefitted from the TOs in the games against us. MSU was just #43 in TOs prior to the M game. Iowa was #18 prior to the M game.

But with all of this logic and factual information how am I to blame Rich Rod for all that is wrong?

I appreciate your level headed approach ... and generally, I agree with you. I've been sitting back and saying, "this takes time." I've coached football for years - primarily on the high school level. I get it ... to expect results immediately is assanine. It takes a long time to build a new paradigm - in more than just sports.

Though, I'm getting close to going over the edge toward despair, when it comes to Robinson and Tony Gibson (the DB and Spec. Teams coach). They are astronomically bad ... and I wonder when RR will set his loyalty (which I admire) aside. I think that GERG may be ok ... ok at best in being a coordinator, but I can't believe that he's better than Ron English. There's no way he's better than Ron English.

Yes, we have freshmen playing - who are well outmatched in strength, experience, and general feel for their positions. I get that - but this is Michigan, and it simply doesn't compute that these kids who were generally studs at good high school programs now seemingly don't know how to do a lot of fundamentally sound things. We're improving - I see a lot of good things on defense, but I also see a lot of things on film that look like our guys are confused in the secondary and a lot of things on Special Teams. That's not our guys' faults. I've learned a lot - have eaten some humble pie about it in my experience too - that when guys make mistakes, that's either on them, or we have to be willing to say that it's because they don't know what to do - or aren't sure. If kids aren't sure, then that's coaching. They may be sure what to do and simply can't do it because of strength or ability ... but if they don't know what to do, then we can't continue to say it's because they're young. We're too far into the season to excuse extreme confusion - and that's quite often what I see ... and I wonder if Tony Gibson is the best guy for the job. He has never really had a a great reputation for putting together strong secondary cohesion (even though he's had some good players) ... and here at Michigan, I think that cohesion is the farthest thing from what we see. RR has to say ... and I pray he does. Certainly Gibson has to go ... he just has to.

In August, I made three predictions:

Michigan nine wins

OSU two losses

Bama two losses

I have found nothing to make me want to change my original assessment so far.

great post, RR made it clear we turn the ball over a number of times were not good enough to get a way with a win playing like that.  Im excited for this bye week, get guys healthy, have our younger dbs focusing more on tackling and getting off blocks.  Recognizing the plays develop as well.  500 yards on a number 4 defense, 4 turnovers, costly mistakes here and there.  However still having a chance to win.  Gotta like that.

As a Detroit native (who like the majority of my neighbors moved away in the 80's) that lives in San Francisco, I have two teams I now live and die with.  Michigan Football and SF Giants baseball.  What has been amazing is that the last few years for both teams has been remarkably similar.  Two tradition rich teams going from perenial contenders to pretty much laughing stocks overnight.  Everyone here is familiar with the Michigan saga, so I just wanted to write about my SF fandom for a bit .

    With the Giants, Barry Bonds "retired" and a team that was completely built around him had to find a new formula.  The Giants brought in Bruce Bochy who had done an amazing job with a horrible Padres team making them competitve every year and even won the Division.  He was a well respected manager around the league but never managed one the "big" teams.  He was an absolute failure for 3 seasons.  The team had the worst offense in the baseball for 3 years straight.   All the stat wizards were calling for Bochy's head and GM Brian Sabean's as well.  They were obviously idiots because eveyone saw that the players were playing terribly.  It had to be the coaches had no idea how to coach and the Management had no idea how to recognize talent.  The team was horrible to watch, for a reason exaclty like watching Michigan is horrible right now.  One part of the team was slowly becoming the best in baseball, while the other side was mired with no progress.  The pitching was becoming dominant, the hitting was a joke. People wanted to trade Tim Lincecum for Alex Rios.  People demanded trading Matt Cain for Prince Fielder.  In spring this year people wanted heads to role because Johnny Sanchez was not traded for even a mediocre bat.  Tim Lincecum won his second Cy Young wining only 15 games.  How, because he was the best pitcher in the NL but some of the lowest run support in all of baseball.  Who had lowest, oh Matt Cain who has a record of 14-8 with 2.89 ERA.  The offense was a complete joke.  We had John Bowker, Travis Ishikawa, Emanuel Burris, Fred Lewis, Eugenio Velez, Matt Downs......  A bunch of AA-AAA talent that we were forced to play with.  Trust me, watching a constant barage of 1-0, 2-1 losses is the exact feeling as watching the Iowa game. 

     But, I never wanted Bochy or Sabean to go.  I saw that if we just kept the amazing but young pitching staff intact and patiently waited for a few bats to arrive, we could build something special.  And this year it started to come together.  I really don't expect the Giants to win the WS this year.  But all the young pitching is here for years to come, and the offense is starting to come around.  By being patient, the Giants have built what looks to be a very special team that will compete for years and years.  There is hitting talent down on the farm that will add pop over the next few years.  What the Giants have right now I wouldn't trade for any other team in baseball.  And I feel the same way about Michigan.  Patience.  The high school kids playing D right now will turn into college players and the team will really become something special with the offense we have in place already.  Stay the course, because, oh man does it feel good when you've been preaching patience on the blogs for 3 years and the team did what you wanted and you find yourself 1-1 in the NLCS.

Yes, the offense accumulated hundreds and hundreds of yards, but the fact remains we didn't score enough points the last few games. I wouldn't say that's an effective enough offense. In fact, I was much more pleased with our D against Iowa than the O. Love Denard, but he looked very inept at times in the passing game. Hopefully this is not a trend for him going forward.

Will be willing to overlook the massive offensive output of yards and point out he 7 turnovers in the last 2 games, not the almost 1,000 yards of offense.  Everyone is taking a sky is falling mentality, and that won't change until Michigan gets that 6th win.

Personally I think Michigan will go 3-2 in the last 5 games.  4-1 if they can keep Wisky from scoring non-stop.

That is why I love this site...level headed people that do more than just watch UM play on Saturday.

A loss is not just a loss there are dimensions to each loss there are positive and negatives about each loss that tell us about our team and where they are headed. I think given the talent on defense we are lucky to be 5-2 right now. We could very easily be 2-3 with losses to ND and Indiana. Could you imagine what would have happened if we did have our defense we were supposed to have...

.......of weeks: Our offense was basically stopped by itself. Those defenses of MSU and Iowa had very little to do with it. If our offense plays to it's stats prior to those games, at least one or possibly both have different outcomes, particularly because our defense didn't get roasted for more yards or points than the opponents averages. Both games, at one point could have seen us with a 14 point lead  sometime in the first half, putting pressure on the opposing offenses to perform.

Thanks for the analysis. Very thoughtful. The hope now is simply that the offense performs well in the first half as well as the second, and that our defense doesn't all the sudden implode into nothing. If those happen, I like our chances not only in the next 3 games, but against Wisky as well.

is that we are building a team that is great at beating bad teams. 3 losses to MSU and another pummeling by OSU are going to leave me jaded. I don't have alot of faith in this system. I can see us beating a demoralized PSU, then maybe Purdue and Illinois. Which means we are great at beating alot of lousy teams. Its like when the Lions would rip off four wins against the dregs of the NFL and everyone got all their hopes up. Does anyone seriously think this year or next Tressel is going to have a hard time game planning for the Michigan O?

I don't think we have great balance. We have a team with decent recievers, an amazing starting QB, a slightly above average line, and a tricky scheme. It works well on bad teams, it tagged a great Iowa D for alot of yards, but failed at getting clinch scores. And it isn't a real disciplined team. It relies ALOT on Denard. Looking to next year, assuming the O is as productive, we are still reliant on one guy. If Denard gets hurt do we end up like Oregon a few years back? Looking like world beaters until the QB gets hurt, then we are merely normal, if that?

With this high powered scoring machine, can they ever shift gears to ball control? What if the defense needs a breather, can they mellow out and go for an 8 minute drive?  Where are the lineman that can blast holes and the RB's that can pound and chew clock? Or take the offense over and let an inexperienced QB ride on their back and still be productive?

And even with more experience I don't see alot of raw talent on the defensive side of the ball that makes me say its going to be much better next year than it has been for this year or last two years. They play hard, but I've seen them pushed around and outrun alot this year. 

I see us developing into a team that is like an old school Ferrari. When everything is perfect HOLY CRAP! But most of the time things aren't perfect. And you're better off with the NSX.

Just random thoughts from a bummed fan. 

will let me sleep well like I had a cup of hot chicken soup