CollegeFootball13

Michigan Rush Offense vs. Virginia Tech Rush Defense

Michigan: #12 Rush Offense, 5.34ypc, 235.7ypg, 31 TDs
Virginia Tech: #17 Rush Defense, 3.32ypc, 107.8ypg, 15 TDs

Michigan has quite the two-headed rushing monster this season, with Denard being Denard -- leading the team with 1,163yds rushing at 5.6ypc, and Fitz finishing the season strong, giving the Wolverines two 1,000 yard rushers (1,011yds, 5.8ypc) for the first time in decades. 

Virginia Tech, meanwhile, put up good defensive numbers against average teams, and not so great numbers against good ones. In a win over Georgia Tech they gave up 243 rushing yards, and in the two games that they lost to Clemson, they gave up 350 yards on the ground and looked bad in the process. With all the different looks they'll see from this Michigan offense, not to mention the fact that they'll be facing two legitimate running options on every single play, Michigan should be able to put up big numbers on the ground against this Hokie defense.

Michigan Rush Defense vs. Virginia Tech Rush Offense

Michigan: #34 Rush Defense, 4.07ypc, 129.1ypg, 13 TDs
Virginia Tech: #30 Rush Offense, 4.53ypc, 188.7ypg, 25 TDs

The front seven has made a pretty miraculous turnaround this season, a complete reversal of their performance last season, and has stopped some decent teams cold on the ground. We didn't have to face Wisconsin's dominant ground game this year, and Edwin Baker racked up 167yds on the ground against us in East Lansing, but other than that the run defense has been pretty solid. 

The Hokies, on the other hand, have a quality talent in David Wilson, who ran for 1,627yds this season at 6.1ypc. He went off in his first meeting with Clemson, running for 123yds on 20 carries, but Clemson made some adjustments in the rematch and held him to just 32yds on 11 carries. I'm sure Mattison will be studying the film from that game very closely, and the Michigan defense should be able to keep Wilson under 100 yards on the day. Logan Thomas is somewhat of a threat out of the backfield as well, and will scramble if no one is open, but only ran for 416 yards on the year (3ypc) and is definitely no Denard.

Michigan Pass Offense vs. Virginia Tech Pass Defense

Michigan: #90 Pass Offense, 8.6ypa, 187.4ypg, 20 TDs, 15 INTs
Virginia Tech: #39 Pass Defense, 6.85ypa, 206.2ypg, 14 TDs, 15 INTs

Michigan's greatest weakness in the passing game is Virginia Tech's greatest strength defending the pass: interceptions. Denard has thrown 14 picks this season (Michigan is #97 in interceptions thrown), and Virginia Tech has picked off 15 passes this season, good enough to place them at #19 in the country in interceptions. If the Wolverines can keep a majority of their yardage on the ground, and make short, safe passes down the field to keep things mixed up, they'll be hard to stop. If Denard gets antsy and a couple of balls get thrown off his back foot, two or three interceptions might be too much for Michigan to overcome in what could end up being a close game.

Michigan Pass Defense vs. Virginia Tech Pass Offense

Michigan: #17 Pass Defense, 6.54ypa, 188.5ypg, 12 TDs, 8 INTs
Virginia Tech: #66 Pass Offense, 7.8ypa, 227ypg, 21 TDs, 9 INTs

Logan Thomas is kind of Denard Robinson Lite. He's thrown for almost 2,800yds, but has a completion percentage of 59%. He's thrown 9 interceptions, including three against Clemson, a two game series that saw him throw one total touchdown and barely completed 50% of his passes. His legs aren't anything to worry too much about, but he's an inconsistent player who shows flashes of greatness and follows them up with badly timed throws and a couple of dangerous passes into coverage.

This Wolverine Secondary isn't as much of a concern as it was early on in the season, as a couple of young players have stepped up big time, most notably Blake Countess. The safety positions have been a bit of a musical chair situation, but the players have settled into their roles and will be ready after weeks of preparation for the bowl game.

Michigan Special Teams vs. Virginia Tech Special Teams

Michigan: 33.7yds avg net punt (#107), 10.3yds punt return avg (#36), 19.8yds kick return avg (#99), 71.4% field goals (#70)

Virginia Tech: 33.6yds avg net punt (#108), 9yds punt return avg (#51), 19.7yds kick return avg (#100), 82.4% field goals (#46)

Both teams are comically bad at punting this season, and pretty average at punt returns. Kick returns are virtually identical as well (both terrible), and VaTech has the edge at the Kicker position, but not by much. VT's starting placekicker will not play in the bowl game and will split kicking duties between the back-ups, as the starting kicker was arrested and suspended (HT: MGoShoe). This isn't last year's kicking game for Michigan. Don't expect any major plays in either direction on special teams.

Michigan vs. Virginia Tech: Miscellaneous

Michigan: +6 TO Margin, 0.5pg (#25), 4.1 Penalties Per Game (#5), 84% RZ Offense (#48), 69% RZ Defense (#4),  2.3 sacks per game (#27), 1.3 sacks allowed per game (#27), 48.4% 3DO (#11), 36.1% 3DD (#30), 56.3% 4DO (#32), 38.9% 4DD (#21)

Virginia Tech: +6 TO Margin, 0.46pg (#29), 5.8 Penalties Per Game (#58), 75% RZ Offense (#101), 68% RZ Defense (#3), 2.9 sacks per game (#11), 1.2 sacks allowed per game (#21), 46.3% 3DO (#22), 32.4% 3DD (#11), 47.1% 4DO (#72), 31.6% 4DD (#8)

Lots of fun stats to look at here, make of them what you will. Expect to see both quarterbacks get sacked once or twice, and depending on which refs will be in the bowl, assuming trends hold, Michigan could continue to be one of the most disciplined teams in the country, averaging only 4 penalties per game, compared to almost six for Virginia Tech. 

Even though on paper the 2012 Sugar Bowl looks like a pretty evenly matched game, I like Michigan a lot. Clemson has given this defense plenty of film to watch, and has given Mattison the blueprint to stop both Thomas and Wilson. Michigan's ground game should be too much for the Hokies to handle, and I could see both Denard and Fitz going over 100yds on the ground, with maybe another 200 through the air.

Michigan wants to give it's seniors and first year coach a huge, program-changing victory in it's first BCS Bowl Game since 2007, and I think they're going to do it pretty easily. I'll say 38-14. What say you?

So with two games left, home contests against Nebraska and Ohio State, we know Michigan will finish the regular season 8-4 at worst and 10-2 at best. 

I think most of us would have been happy with being 8-2 after 10 at the beginning of the season, my pre-season prediction was 8-4, so I have to tell myself I can't be very disappointed no matter what happens to finish the season.

There's no doubt, however, that Michigan has been a pretty bi-polar team this season. Impressive wins over some decent teams and a couple of poor performances in our losses leave many fans wondering how good this team really is. I think we'll find out for sure in the next few weeks, but who wants to wait that long? Here's a statistical breakdown of the season so far:

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All stats are based on the last 9 games, the game against Western doesn't officially count.

Offense

PLAYER RANKINGS:
Total Offense: Denard Robinson- 1,611 yds passing, 864yds rushing, 275 total YPG (24th Overall, 1st in B1G)

Passing YPG: Denard Robinson- 99/189, 179ypg, 13 TDS, 13 INTs (71st Overall, 5th in B1G)
Passing Efficiency: Denard Robinson- 132.92 rtng (57th overall, 5th in B1G)

Receiving YPG:
Junior Hemingway- 27rec, 520yds, 19.3ypc, 1 TD (NR)
Jeremy Gallon- 23rec, 391yds, 17.0ypc, 2 TDs (NR)
Roy Roundtree- 14rec, 278yds, 19.9ypc, 2 TDs (NR)

Rushing YPG:
Denard Robinson- 151car, 864yds, 12 TDs, 5.7YPC, 96.0YPG (32nd Overall, 5th in B1G)
Fitzgerald Toussaint- 114car, 673yds, 5 TDs, 5.9YPC, 84.1 YPG (48th Overall, 6th in B1G)

TEAM RANKINGS:
Passing: 200.4ypg, 15TDs, 14INTs (84th Overall, 7th in B1G)
Rushing: 235.9ypg, 22TDs (11th Overall, 2nd in B1G)
Total Offense: 436.3ypg, 6.48 yards per play (33rd Overall, 3rd in B1G)
Scoring: 32.3ppg, 38TDs, 8 FGs (37th Overall, 3rd in B1G)
Turnovers lost: 19, 14 INTs (111th), 5 fumbles lost (9th) (T-78th Overall, 11th in B1G)
Red Zone Offense: 44 drives, 27 TDs, 8 FGs, 80% (T-69th Overall, 7th in B1G)

Not exactly the powerhouse that we were last year, but we have the 5th and 6th best rushers in the Big Ten in Denard and Fitzgerald. Denard is obviously not much of a passing quarterback and he gets a lot of flack for it, but with his legs factored in he's still the most productive player in the Big Ten. Toussaint is looking like the running back of the future. Our lack of a passing game means we don't have any receivers that stand out nationally, with none falling in the top 100. Our turnovers have been brutal this season, with our 14 INTs landing us 111th in the country. After a great start to the season in the red zone, we've fallen to an 80% in red zone scoring, putting us in the bottom half of the B1G. 

All in all, not as impressive as many of us were hoping for, but plenty of glimmers of hope, the most productive player in the Big Ten, and a solid ground game make it a pretty decent season so far.

Offensive Grade: B

Defense

PLAYER RANKINGS:
Passes Defended: JT Floyd- 6 PBU's, 2 INTs, .89 passes defended per game (T-78th Overall, 2nd in B1G)
Forced Fumbles: Thomas Gordon- 2FF (T-68th Overall, 4th in B1G)
Fumbles Recovered:
Thomas Gordon- 4FR (T-2nd Overall, 1st in B1G)
Jake Ryan- 2 FR (T-31st Overall, T-4th in B1G)

TEAM RANKINGS:
Passing Defense: 191.3ypg, 6.47ypa, 9 TDs, 6 INTs (22nd Overall, 6th in B1G)
Rushing Defense: 130.9ypg, 4.01ypc, 9 TDs (41st Overall, 5th in B1G)
Total Defense: 322.2ypg, 5.18yds per play, 19TDs (17th Overall, 6th in B1G)
Scoring Defense: 19TDs, 4 FGs, 16.1ppg (7th Overall, 3rd in B1G)
Turnovers Forced: 20, 6 INTs (T-94th), 14 FR (T-5th) (T-28th Overall, 2nd in B1G)
Sacks: 19 sacks, 2.11 per game (44th Overall, 6th in B1G)
Red Zone Defense: 27 drives, 16 TDs, 2 FGs, 67% (1st Overall, 1st in B1G)

First of all, we have the best red zone defense in the country!? I would not have guessed that. Second of all, the Big Ten is a defensive juggernaut of a conference. When we're 22nd in the country in passing defense and that's only good for 6th in the Big Ten, that's pretty ridiculous. But seeing that we're 17th nationally in total defense and that five other Big Ten teams are still ahead of us (MSU, Wisky, PSU, Illinois and OSU)  is just obscene. There's not even a major statistic that our defense is outside the top 50 in (we're also 39th in 3rd down defense and 20th in 4th down defense). I think if you told me our defense would be this good a year ago I would have slapped you. We're lacking in interceptions but dominating in fumble recoveries. I love Greg Mattison and I love this defense.

Defensive Grade: A-

Special Teams

PLAYER RANKINGS:
Punting: Will Hagerup- 21 punts, 49 long, 35.8avg (NR)
Kicking: Brendan Gibbons- 8/11, 38 long, 37/37 XP (55th Overall, 6th in B1G)
Punt Returns: Jeremy Gallon- 14ret, 11.43ypr (18th Overall, 2nd in B1G)

TEAM RANKINGS:
Punt Returns: 16ret, 160yds, 10.0avg (39th Overall, 4th in B1G)
Punt Return D: 16ret, 142yds, 8.88ypr (78th Overall, 10th in B1G)
Net Punting: 33 punts, 37.73avg, 16ret, 8.8ypr, 32.82 net avg (112th Overall, 12th in B1G)
Kickoff Returns: 20ret, 388yds, 19.4ypr (102nd Overall, 10th in B1G)
Kickoff Return D: 37ret, 708yds, 19.1ypr (23rd Overall, 3rd in B1G)
Turnover Margin: 20 gained, 19 lost, +1 (51st Overall, 7th in B1G)
Penalties: 40 penalties, 39.22yds per game (T-12th Overall, 2nd in B1G)

Not really sure what to make of this. Pretty disheartening to see that we're one of the worst net punting teams in the nation, one of the worst kick return teams in the nation, and one of the worst punt return defense teams in the nation. It is, however, encouraging to see Gallon in the top 20 punt returners in the country, and our penalties are under control. Gibbons is Gibbons, and 8/11 is pretty good compared to last year. Still, I feel like Special Teams aren't a priority on this team.

Special Teams Grade: C+

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So our offense has been a little underwhelming, our defense has been an extremely pleasant surprise, and our special teams have been business as usual, sadly. But that's just what the numbers say. What do you say?