@ PSU being 24 of 31 is sad... how are they so bad? Seriously WMU at home is considered harder than PSU away...
Charting MBB Remaining Games
CHART - Remaining basketball games schedule:
- Wisconsin and NC State climb up.
- Illinois tumbles.
- Jury is still out on MSU but will know significantly more in next two weeks.
- Michigan has now played 4 of their hardest 10 games.
- Penn St be bad.
- Adidas jerseys are worse.
Path to B1G Conference Title:
- Michigan will not play another team with as much raw athleticism as Minnesota in the regular season (Indiana is probably more talented but not bouncier).
- Finish 6-3 or better on the road. To do that, Michigan must win @Illinois, @Purdue, and @Penn St. Then they have to take one of three from @Indiana, @MSU, @Wisconsin. That seems doable.
- Run the table at home or maybe just one loss.
- I think it's still easier for Wisconsin to get four losses than Indiana at this point, so the Badger's road win there will definitely have been a major deciding factor at the end of the year.
- My prediction is any team finishing 15-3 wins outright, 14-4 gives a shot at a split. I don't think Indiana will lose 4 more games in the conference so I disagree with the idea that 13-5 multi-way title will happen again.
Really hard to recruit to PSU. No tradition. Dead, empty arena. Seemingly no institutional commitment and minimal fan support. Isolated location. Areas they exploit for football (eastern PA, NJ, Maryland, upcountry Virginia) are filled with better basketball options.
They weren't supposed to be very good in any case, but they lost their best player (Tim Frazier) to a season-ending injury in the fall, which dropped them from NIT-ish to just terrible.
Just to add to the already great post,
The sagarin rankings of the big10 teams are...
A take-away from this seems to be that the sagarin/kenpom like indiana, osu, and wisconsin a lot more than rpi does.
Another interesting note is that sagarin now has us favored in every game except at Indiana where we are roughly 1 point underdogs.
Other notable teams,
nc state 19
Illinois is too high in the RPI. They have some good wins but their current play is terrible. Not sure that RPI has it right on Ohio as low as 26, Wisconsin at 45 etc.
The game @Wisconsin is now looking to be very important with them already one loss ahead of the field and having already played @Indiana and not having to play @Michigan. They aren't the best B1G team but they are positioned to compete for the title.
We should be 7-1 heading into the brutal 4 game stretch that will probaby determine if we win the conference.
How is "difficulty" calculated?
Average ratings + add weighting for home/road/neutral -- it's not award winning and the number itself is meaningless, but it gives a sound distribution (and gaps) of how tough the games are.
I agree with everything that you said, especially that 15-3 will get us an outright championship and 14-4 will get us a split. In my opinion, the games @Illinois and @Purdue are the most crucial games remaining. We absolutely must win both of these games. I personally think that we will hold serve at home and that we will win at least one of the games @Wisky, @MSU or @Indiana. If we can beat Purdue and Illinois on the road, I think we go 15-3 and win the championship outright.