champswest

We can discuss and debate from now until November, what position players are going to play next year and how many minutes they are going to get.  Coach Beilein has recently stated that he feels good about the flexibility of next year’s team, meaning that many players can play multiple positions.  I approached this from a player position point of view and tried to see if we would likely be better or worse than this year.

1 Spike, Walton

Walton’s minutes increase as he earns them and he will likely be the starter at some point next season (likely sooner than later).  Less scoring than last year, but hopefully they can both run the offense and get shots for others.  A big step down from this year's POY, but we should be solid.

2 LeVert, Irvin, Spike, Stauskas

A 5 star player who was Indiana’s Mr. Basketball, needs to be on the floor somewhere.  With Hardaway’s departure, there is an opening here.  LeVert has a year of experience and knows the system.  Both players should give us length on the perimeter, outside shooting, dribble penetration and be good in transition.  Solid on defense.  Even with this year.

3 Stauskas, LeVert , Irvin, Robinson

Expect Nik to be bigger and stronger and a better ball handler.  As a second year player, he will have a better understanding of the offense and defense and should be a better defender.  Several guys can play this position.  Experience makes this is an upgrade from this year.

4 Robinson, Donnal, Bielfeldt, Morgan, Horford

Expect GRIII to be bigger, stronger and a better defender.  Donnal could be the perfect stretch 4 that we thought Smotrycz would be, but probably not this year.  We can go with 2 bigs for stretches with Morgan, Horford or even Bielfeldt at the 4.  An upgrade from this year.

5 McGary, Horford, Morgan

We should count on a double, double (15+ points & 12+ rebounds) every night from the 5 position.  Improving defense from McGary.  His threat to score should open things up for the other positions on offense.  A big upgrade from this year.

This year, during most of the regular season, we started 2 freshmen, a sophomore and 2 juniors.  With this lineup, we would be starting 2 freshmen (Walton & Irvin) and 3 sophomores.  Still a very young team.  Who will be the leaders?  We lost the leadership of Burke, Hardaway and the 5 seniors.

I would expect a slower start to the non-conference portion of the season.  Hopefully, they grow up fast and come together by late season.  This team could be a Big Ten title contender and a NCAA Sweet Sixteen or better. 

     The jerseys of 5 Michigan legends, Cassie Russell #33, Rudy Tomjanovich #45, Phil Hubbard #35, Glen Rice #41 and Bill Buntin #22, hang from the rafters in Crisler Arena.  There is no question that all five are much deserving of that honor.  But, will there ever be a sixth, seventh or more?

     What is the criteria for reaching that great honor?  Team success?  Individual awards?  Cazzie led his teams to 3 straight Big Ten titles and to two final fours and was named National Player of the Year as a Senior.  Buntin starred along with Cazzie in those two final fours.  Glen Rice won a National Championship, set a scoring record in the process and was named “Most Outstanding Player”.  Although team accomplishments certainly help, that alone will not get your jersey raised.  Individual accomplishments, especially scoring and rebounding, seem to be the requirement.  And if you were good at both, all the better.  While other categories, such as assist, steals and blocks, are also important, unless you could also score or rebound, those alone will probably not get you selected.

Charts?  Yes!

     These stats are from: http://stats.ath.umich.edu/basketball/basketstart.php.  There are many more stats there as well.  I chose to look at career points scored, scoring average, total rebounds and average rebounds per game.  To help keep it in perspective, I also included career games started.  There may be some players that ranked high in career scoring average, but only played one season (Jamal Crawford).  Others, may rank high in career totals not because they were dominant, but because they started for four years (Zack Novak) due to weak teams.  I am not saying that we should penalize a player because  they started for four years on weak teams or because they only played for one or two years, but we need to know their amount of games played to better understand their position in the rankings.

      For the chart, I listed the players in order of rank in total points scored.  I listed only the current top 25 all time scorers.  The remaining columns show where those 25 players rank in the other categories.  Below the top 25 scorers, I listed 13 other players because they are ranked in the top 25 in at least one other category.  I omitted a few names because they are ranked low and in only one category (Eric Riley & Butch Wade) or because they only played one season.

     It should be noted, that the current honorees hold the #1 rank in all four categories.  Rice is #1 in points, Russell is #1 in scoring average and Tomjanovich is #1 in both total rebounds and rebound average.  Buntin is #2 in both rebounding stats and #4 in scoring average while Hubbard is #3 & #4 in the rebounding categories and stands at #20 in total points.

      Do any former players qualify for this great honor.  Certainly, Mike McGee and Gary Grant should be in the conversation for their scoring and Jalen Rose for his scoring and point guard leadership of the Fab Five era.  Two Championship Game appearances can’t hurt either.  LaVell Blanchard, Roy Tarpley and Juwan Howard should get a look, since they both scored and rebounded.  And what about this Henry Wilmore who started in 70 games from 1970-73 and ranks #3 in scoring average and #8 in rebound average?

       As for current and future Wolverines, it seems the key concern could be games (or seasons) played.  Today’s trend seems to be for the elite players to leave early for the NBA.  Can you hope to get your jersey raised if you only play one or two seasons?  So far, I believe only Phil Hubbard has chosen to forego a year of eligibility and still been honored.  It should be noted that, at one time, Freshmen were not eligible to play, so three years were the max.  I would like to think that some current players have the potential, but it may take three or fours years of playing to achieve the same level as previous stars.  Trey Burke has had a great career so far, but will two years be enough?  I could see Tim Hardaway, Jr. And Nik Stauskas ending up high on the scoring list, but it would probably take all four years to get there.  And what about Glen Robinson, III and Mitch McGary for both scoring and rebounding?  What could they do in three or four years?

      So, will we see any more jerseys go up?  If so, who is your pick for the next one?

With the departure of Harris&Sims, UM also loses 52% of its offense. Who will pick up the scoring slack for the Wolverines? The short answer is no one and everyone. At this point, it seems unlikely that anyone on the roster is capable of supplying 16 to 18 points per game. The more likely scenario is for balanced scoring, and not just from the 5 starters, but from as much as 11 deep. It is not as impossible as it may sound. We may have lost our big 1-2 scoring punch, but we also lost 50% of the shot attempts. That means more shots for the other guys next year and less standing around waiting for Manny to shoot the ball.>

What have we gained in 2010-2011? For starters, more height. We can field the 4&5 spots with 2 guys each that are 6’8” or taller.< More length means better D and better D means more offense. It also means better rebounding leading to more offensive opportunities. We gain everyone playing their natural positions (point guards to run the offense, scoring guards to shoot the ball and 6’8”+ guys (instead of 6’4” Novak) to guard the other team’s 4. With 6 new guys we also gain depth. And last but not least we gain chemistry. We all saw what teams with few stars (Butler, Northern Iowa, Cornell, etc.) can accomplish when they play hard and play together. T-E-A-M!

If you look at the scoring potential by position, it is reasonable to expect next years team to produce the same scoring ability. The chart below compares last years output by position with next years potential group of players. (Note: I have made some assumptions as to what positions individuals might play and the number of minutes and potential scoring average. My emphasis is more on the position’s potential considering who we have playing there and not so much on what any individual player might achieve). We will probably lose scoring at the 3 and 5, but could gain at the other 3 spots. No single player even needs to make a big leap in average. The biggest increase in this scenario is Vogrich going from 1.5 ppg to 5 ppg. No player has a higher average than 8 points (Douglass and Smotrycz).

Now, 6 of these guys are new and I have never even seen them play so I am assuming a lot. But, the thing that I like most is our potential depth. We could start a team of Morris, Douglass, Novak, Smotrycz and Morgan and spell them with Hardaway, LLP, Vogrich/Sykes, McLimans and Horford. We have shooters&slashers. We have big guys to pound the boards or to take their man outside and make them defend the 3 point shot. We will be very young and inexperienced, but hopefully they will have great chemistry and hunger. If they work hard together this summer, they could end up playing around .500 next year (and that could be better than the 2009 team did). And then in 2011 we add Brundidge and maybe another big. It’s a start.

It has long been my contention (& I think that few will disagree) that the 5 hot bed states for prep talent are FL, CA, TX, OH and PA. Therefore, I feel that universities in those states could probably sign only players from thier own states (if they really had to) and still compete at the upper level. For supporting data, I use Scout's 2010 final recruiting team ranking and stats. I list in this order: State, University, final ranking, # of 5 stars signed from within their own state, and # of 4 stars signed from within their own state. For example: MI, UM, 12/1/2 (UM finished ranked 12 in the nation with 1 in state 5* signee and two in state 4* signees.

The 5 Hot Bed States
FL - Florida 1/2/9, FSU 10/3/5, Miami 17/0/3.
TX - Texas 3/4/13, Texas A&M 25/1/3
CA - USC 5/3/8, UCLA 8/1/10, Stanford 24/0/2
PA - Penn St 9/2/5, Pitt 16/0/3
OH - OSU 20/1/4
These 5 states put 11 teams in the final top 25 (MI put only 1). Of the 11 teams which finished higher ranked than UM, 6 were from the hot bed states. Those 6 averaged 2.5 5* from within their own states and 8.3 4* (this compares to UM's previously mentioned one 5* and two 4*). MSU was also one 5*&two 4*. Also, teams from those 5 states have won 7 out of the last 10 BCS Championships. Clearly, just winning the in state battle with MSU isn't going to be enough to be in the upper tier of schools. There usually are not enough in-state 5&4 star players to fill a class.  The recruiting task becomes even harder when you consider the type of player that RR is looking for to run his O and D. Finally, OH is the only near-by state for UM to easily draw from, whereas Oklahoma has TX, Alabama, Auburn&LSU have nearby FL and WSU (edit: Washington) has CA. Considering all of that, JOB WELL DONE, RR and staff.  I can't wait to see how the classes look when we are coming off of winning seasons.