CC Will a Harbaugh not Make the NFL Playoffs? Right Now Probably
Some assumptions this post makes:
Brady Hoke will no longer be the head coach of Michigan Football in the next few weeks and months.
Jim or John Harbaugh would be willing to come coach at our school.
The methodology of this website is sound. Overall website link: www.playoffstatus.com
I'm fairly confident we're going to see regime change although I do agree we should really go after a homerun hire that has a really high probabilty of working out otherwise if we hire somebody who is not a slam dunk and does not engender excitement we could be in for some rocky road and not of the yummy variety.
Anyway, I found this site which frequently updates season scenarios for different teams within the NFL and for other sports. Unfortunately, I couldn't find a methodology so this should be taken with a huge grain of salt. However, right now Jim Harbaugh is 4-4 in the NFC West (good for one game better than the last place Rams) and John Harbaugh is 5-4 in the AFC North which is half a game better than the 5-3(!) last place Cleveand Browns(!!!!). Also, Both teams have already lost to two divisional rivals already, the Cardinals and Steelers respectively, although the Ravens split so no tie breaker for the Steelers to my knowledge which is limited when it comes to the NFL and it's mysterious processes.
Finally, the percentages: according to this model the 49ers have a 70% chance of missing the playoffs at this point most likely because the Cardinals so far look like a lock to win the division going away; meanwhile the other Harbaugh and his Ravens have a slightly better 67% chance of missing the playoffs. Primarily the reason for such a high percentage for John Harbaugh is his team is in one of the toughest divisons in the NFL since every team is above .500, parity uber alles. That AFC North playoff picture looks a lot more fluid since all the teams are so tight and it may only be resolved in late December.
Same Charts from the Site:
NFC West Playoff Standings
| Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs | |||||||
| Team | W | L | T | 1** | 2** | 3* | 4* | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Cardinals | 7 | 1 | 0 |
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| Seahawks | 5 | 3 | 0 |
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| Forty-Niners | 4 | 4 | 0 |
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| Rams | 3 | 5 | 0 |
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AFC North Playoff Standings
| Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs | |||||||
| Team | W | L | T | 1** | 2** | 3* | 4* | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Steelers | 6 | 3 | 0 |
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| Bengals | 5 | 2 | 1 |
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| Ravens | 5 | 4 | 0 |
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| Browns | 5 | 3 | 0 |
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Bottom Line: Thus far we're looking in good shape that both Harbaughs miss their post season meaning we could try to make them our head coach sometime around December 28 7:30 - 8:00 PM EST, roughly. This is of course fluid and both are really good coaches and it's only the halfway point so they could turn this around, but luckily for us they are in some tough divisions which could make these coaches available sooner than we originally thought. In conclusion let's go Cardinals and Seahawks in the NFC West and Steelers, Bengals, and Browns in the AFC North.
Sources:
November 3rd, 2014 at 2:53 AM ^
I seriously wonder if Hoke is going to announce that he is stepping down after this season in his Monday press conference. His dismissal is a fait accompli at this point; maybe Schlissel has offered to pay his buyout without fighting it if he "resigns" now to clear the way for the "process" to officially begin.
Hoke would get to save face and his team would know exactly how long they get him for a coach. They would work their asses off to be bowl eligible and get one more game for him.
November 3rd, 2014 at 8:55 AM ^
Despite the outward appearance to some (many?) of us, I think Hoke really does have the best interests of his team in mind. There are few scenarios in which his resignation or termination prior to the season's end make sense for the team's pride and competitiveness.
There's yet another factor that discourages Michigan from taking an early action on Hoke. With the Michigan job suddenly open, other schools might make moves of their own, whether to sign their "hot" coaches to long term extensions with hefty payouts, fire underperforming coaches now lest Michigan get the pick of the litter, etc.
I think sometime around the first of December is probably the optimal time to do it, assuming that the AD (whomever he or she is at that point) has someone on the hook already.
November 3rd, 2014 at 10:17 AM ^
Step down with three games to go? Or make them let you go and get yourself a nice buyout package AND finish coaching the season without the verified lame duck status as the headline every week?
Come on now.
November 3rd, 2014 at 11:34 AM ^
Coaches often speak of teaching their kids to fight through adversity, play with pride and keep their head up (and you know Hoke talks about these things--probably more than he does football, it's tempting to think at this point). Resigning at this point because things are really tough hardly teaches those lessons. He'll stick out the season, and accept his firing (or agree to resign) with some dignity in December and we can all move on (and start praying for a Harbaugh) then.
November 3rd, 2014 at 7:08 AM ^
but 5-4 is not better than 5-3.
I'll admit I'm skeptical of any system that assumes the Lions will keep winning. Seattle being 4x more likely than the Lions to miss the playoffs makes me wonder if they are using anything but this year's W-L records to make their calculations. The wildcard picture in the NFC is different today with Foles going out.
November 3rd, 2014 at 12:28 PM ^
Seattle has looked terrible the past few weeks, almost losing to Oakland at home (possibly the worst team in the NFL) and dealing with the constant distractions from the Percy Harvin trade and Marshawn Lynch rumors.
Meanwhile, Detroit has arguably the #1 defense in the NFL and went 3-0 without Calvin Johnson and a crippled Reggie Bush. That plus the NFC West being markedly superior to the NFC North (all four teams in the NFC West are playoff contenders) = not too surprising that the Lions have better playoff odds than Seattle.
November 3rd, 2014 at 7:38 AM ^
Other than being a Harbaugh, is there really any indicator that John Harbaugh would leave the NFL? There is obviously plenty of reasons to be excited about the possibility of Jim Harbaugh, but I've never seen anything that even remotely points to John Harbaugh coming here other than growing up in Ann Arbor and being Jim's brother.
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:24 AM ^
Wasn't there a rumor floating around that John was potentially interested in Michigan? I know nothing of its origin or truthiness. Does anyone know anything about that?
November 3rd, 2014 at 10:00 AM ^
Yeah, people keep thinking John Harbaugh is like Jim in that he has some burning desire to coach at Michigan, when I've yet to see any evidence he'd really care to. He never played at Michigan, never coached here, and seems to be perfectly happy in the NFL where he's won a super bowl and, for all their recent stumblings, still have the Ravens poised for a playoff berth.
Jim is probably gone because the SF management doesn't like him, but John seems to be in a good place in Baltimore and I don't see him going anywhere, especially back to college.
November 3rd, 2014 at 10:10 AM ^
While I agree with you that John, to my knowledge, has not shown a burning desire to coach Michigan, I do think there is a 50/50 chance he is not with Baltimore next year.
He's a proven winner, and Baltimore will do what they can to keep him on board. But he was reportedly very unhappy with the Ray Rice situation, asking management to cut Ray back last winter/spring when the incident was initially reported. He is not happy with his owner (who is closer with the commish than most) and may look to change teams.
Again, don't think he's coming to the college ranks, but I would not be shocked to see him leave for another NFL team.
November 3rd, 2014 at 3:31 PM ^
Jim has a burning desire to coach at a place he turned down the opportunity to coach at.
I'm not sure which is more unreasonable.
Jim, also, "never coached here, and seems to be perfectly happy in the NFL where he's [MADE] a super bowl and, for all their recent stumblings, still have the [49ers IN CONTENTION] for a playoff berth."
November 3rd, 2014 at 3:26 PM ^
No evidence he would leave NFL for Michigan either. Just rumors. In fact, the only evidence we do have is that he will choose the NFL over Michigan. (If you believe that Jim turned down the job in 2010.) There is no such counter-evidence for John.
If you're going down the "love for Michigan overrides logic" path you are shoving aside rational indicators regardless. It's an exercise in speculation wrt who loves Michigan enough to give up a better situation...maybe John wants to be "more Michigan" than Jim to offset his lesser-athleticism. This kind of speculation can be fun but pointless.
There are no wrong answers in the magical kingdom of your imagination.
November 3rd, 2014 at 3:35 PM ^
I'll just say that I've heard various people that know way more about what goes on at Michigan (including Brian on a podcast) say that people have indicated Jim Harbaugh is at least a possibility. I've never heard anything of the sort about John Harbaugh.
November 3rd, 2014 at 4:46 PM ^
Fact: Harbaugh did not accept an offer to become the head coach at Michigan.
Rational deduction: As one of the best football coaches in the country Harbaugh was very likely offered the job (or the opportunity to be offered the job) if he was interested. (i.e., he turned UofM down).
Rumor: Harbaugh is willing to leave the bay area/NFL to come to AA.
No one is reporting anything. The rumor(s) might be wishful thinking. Maybe someone is trying to portray the UofM job into more than a struggling low-level Big 10 team with unreasonable expectations and a combative media and alumni.
Is one rumor better than the other? We're all just guessing here, so it's a matter of using your judgement and evaluating who is a reliable source and who is not.
November 6th, 2014 at 1:18 PM ^
"Maybe someone is trying to portray the UofM job into more than a struggling low-level Big 10 team with unreasonable expectations and a combative media and alumni."
Really? Is it unreasonable to expect us to COMPETE for Big 10 championships more than once every 10 years (last one won was in 2004)? And to hold our own with our main rival, and not watch the ascension of Little Brother to a position of prominence within our League?
Sorry, the only unreasonable thing about it to me is your comment...
November 3rd, 2014 at 7:56 AM ^
Yes I am with the guy above me, John has zero reason to leave Baltimore. While he was put in a bad position on Ray Rice that is 1 incident in an otherwise harmonious situation. Very different than Jim.
Also college football is a different animal. I wonder how many NFL head coaches who have NEVER coached in the NCAA have dropped to do it. Usually it is the other way around. Ozzie Newsome is generally a pretty good judge of talent and John just needs to coach - it is a very different animal to procure players and recruit. Especially for someone who has never done it.
November 3rd, 2014 at 8:46 AM ^
My son has a severe peanut allergy, so can we find another flavor? Chocolate/caramel swirl is pretty close, except for the nuts. Thanks.
On the subject of regime change, I agree that an "anybody but Hoke" hire would be potentially disasterous - of the "careful what you wish for" kind. Whether or not Hoke is dismissed should be - at least in part - dependent upon the level of interest shown by the Harbaughs, Mullen, etc.
November 3rd, 2014 at 8:48 AM ^
I hate to be that guy but the Bengals are first in the divison
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:01 AM ^
I have to seriously question any methodology that presents the lions as 39% to get a bye, but like the post regardless.
November 3rd, 2014 at 10:32 AM ^
EDIT: Guess this image doesn't really work since there's only two teams ahead of them..but I found it and thought it was funny.
November 3rd, 2014 at 11:20 AM ^
Footballoutsiders.com for your playoff odds. They won't update them until the game tonight is over, but I think their methodology makes a bit more sense and is a bit more thorough.
Also, they give the 49ers a much smaller chance to make the playoffs!! So, yay?
November 3rd, 2014 at 11:25 AM ^
That's a tough place to win, and at 4-5 I'd think the Harbaugh Is Leaving San Fran hype would kick into full gear.
November 3rd, 2014 at 4:29 PM ^
As it looks today, it's going to be hard for San Fran to catch the Cardinals or make the playoffs.
November 4th, 2014 at 4:04 PM ^
No chance, St. Louis, Arizona, and Seattle in the same divison? No chance at making the playoffs. His season will be done by Dec. 28th, so we should hire Jim right before the new year. makes sense right? New year-- new coach
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:08 PM ^
FIRST did we ever ask him to come in 2010 or is this just a rumor ? SECOND did anybody ever find a clip or a transcript of Jack Harbaugh saying Jim would accept the MI job or is this just urban ( not OSU ) legend ? THIRD what besides the boosters desperation makes this a better job than it was in 2010 that we would expect a big name to come here who would not have in 2010 ? I could think of nobody else but Jim who could step in now and make an IMMEDIATE impact and I hope all of the optimism here has a basis but I fear it is just wishful thinking.
November 3rd, 2014 at 9:12 PM ^
by the way i live in SF area and we ALL expect him to return to the 49rs no matter what his issue is with York. We expect a losing season to be used for negotiations but not to fire him.
November 4th, 2014 at 2:23 AM ^
at SanFran? If there was a solid candidate out there under consideration - at least floating around the rumor mill - I'd say the Harbaugh-to-UM move rumor has legs. Not hearing that tends to indicate that Caliblue above and the sentiments of the NorCal locals may be correct, unfortunately. I will say, however, that the relationship b/w Harbs and San Fran ownership is about as strange as the photo in this SF Gate blog looks:
http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2014/08/02/york-on-harbaughs-future-jim-an…
Looks to be a pretty complex situation with ownership trying to lock him in w/ more money but Harbaugh turning it down "to prevent setting a re-negotiation precedent." He knows he's a hot commodity and they're ready to pull the trigger on even more and that's what he's deftly holding out for.
There's a bidding war brewing.
November 4th, 2014 at 3:11 AM ^
Peyton Manning:Denver Broncos Jerseys
November 6th, 2014 at 12:59 PM ^
No way Hoke resigns but given the precedent Schlissel established with Brandon's departure, he'll have a replacement ready to go upon making the announcement. I gotta assume (and really hope) there will not need to be a public "search committee" process and that this work is already happening behind the scenes.
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