CC - Where we stand - Part IV (last of the HCs)

Submitted by Ron Utah on

Can he beat his former employer (Meyer)?

David Shaw, HC Stanford

  • Track Record: B+. Jim's OC all four years at Stanford. Seems to have maintained the success there, though this year will probably be his worst, record-wise. Is currently 38-9, 25-5 in Pac-12.

  • Michigan Ties: D-. Nothing there. Coached with Jim. Has coached in NFL at Philly, Oakland, and Baltimore.

  • Recruiting: B+. Had the #5 class (Rivals) in 2012, but otherwise has been solid but not spectacular (22, 64, 14).

  • Chances/Loyalty: D. Why would Shaw leave his alma mater for Michigan? Money would be the only conceivable reason, and I think Stanford would match.

  • Demeanor: B+. For a 42-year-old, he seems polished and is certainly used to operating in an arrogant, highly-educated environment.

  • Three Phases: A-. MANBALL offense that has had sustained success combined with aggressive, highly-ranked defenses and good special teams.

  • Roster Fit: A. Hard to imagine a better fit in terms of scheme for our players; he recruits basically the same guys.

  • OVERALL GPA: 2.76 (B-). Shaw seems like a great fit, except I don't believe he has any love for or desire to coach at Michigan. I think he is among the most unrealistic names on the list.

 

Kevin Sumlin, HC Texas A&M

  • Track Record: B+. 60-25 as a HC at Houston and A&M. Was 11-2 in first season at A&M, then 9-4, and looks to be on his way to no better than 9-4 this season. Can he excel without Manziel?

  • Michigan Ties: C+. Coached at Minnesota from '93-97, then at Purdue (his alma mater) until 2000. Since then has been in the south, where he was born.

  • Recruiting: A-. Sumlin has been killing it on the recruiting trail. Rivals #6, #11, and #15 classes the last three years. '15 class is currently at #6.

  • Chances/Loyalty: D+. Sumlin has some midwest ties, but has been in the south for a long time now and has no good reason to leave, unless he wants to escape the SEC West. Makes $3.1 million.

  • Demeanor: B+. 50 years old and presents well. Would fit the Michigan culture, IMO.

  • Three Phases: B. Is Sumlin just an offensive genius? The first thing I'd want to know if we hired him is, “Who's your DC?”

  • Roster Fit: C. Would need a significant roster overhaul for his style. We don't have the speed he likes at almost any position.

  • OVERALL GPA: 2.71 (B-). Sumlin seems like a quality person capable of turning just about any athlete into a Heisman-contender at QB...but can he coach a defense?

 

Butch Jones, HC Tennessee

  • Track Record: B. Maintained and even built on Kelly's success at Central Michigan, going 11-2 in 2009. Cincinnati was 12-0 in Kelly's last year (2009), and 4-8 in Jones' first year there in 2010. Did rebound to 10-3 and 9-3. Is 8-10 so far at Tennessee.

  • Michigan Ties: B+. Born in Saugatuck, played at Ferris State, and has coached at Ferris and CMU. Coached with Rich Rod at WVU.

  • Recruiting: B+. Was okay at Cincinnati (but, Cincinnati), staying near the top but not at the top of the Big East. Has been dynamite at Tennessee so far, with the #5 class last year and currently ranked #5.

  • Chances/Loyalty: C+. Hard to say. Butch is a Michigan guy, but he's at a top-tier program that's paying him about $3 million and might match any Michigan offer. No direct ties to U-M.

  • Demeanor: A-. 46. No nonsense approach and knows how to play to fanbase. Answers questions at press conferences. Would fit at Michigan, IMO.

  • Three Phases: B. Is an offensive guy, but hasn't gotten offense going at Tennessee. Defense has been a pleasant surprise under his watch so far.

  • Roster Fit: B. More Brian Kelly than Rich Rod, Jones could be successful with a Shane Morris-type at QB. Needs more space players on offense.

  • OVERALL GPA: 3.14 (B/B+). May have overrated him a bit. I feel he needs more time at Tennessee, but if he's interested in the job, I would definitely interview him.

 

Ruffin McNeill, HC East Carolina.

  • Track Record: B+. I believe McNeil should get more credit. Has taken perennial overachiever ECU and turned them into a ranked team. Was part of Texas Tech's strong run as a defensive coach.

  • Michigan Ties: F. There is nothing here.

  • Recruiting: C+. Has not had great success at ECU...but, ECU. No idea how he'd fare at a top-tier program.

  • Chances/Loyalty: C. NO ties to U-M or the midwest. Would be about the money and the chance to coach a big-time program. Is an ECU grad. Only making $400K.

  • Demeanor: C+. Southern guy who is not a fast talker. Seems like an awesome southern uncle. Don't think he would be appreciated in A2. 56 years old.

  • Three Phases: B+. Is a defensive guy, but ECU allowed over 30 pts/game until 2013. Has made steady improvement there and has now beaten some tougher opponents.

  • Roster Fit: B-. Defensively, it's a fit. Offensively, spready-spread needs space players, which we don't have.

  • OVERALL GPA: 2.29 (C+). McNeill seems like a really good football coach. Unfortunately, he has no ties to U-M, runs a completely different offense, and doesn't seem like a good cultural fit.

 

Kyle Whittingham, HC Utah.

  • Track Record: B. Was 58-22 in the Mountain West with an undefeated season in 2008 including a Sugar Bowl victory over Nick Saban's 'Bama squad. Since the move to the Pac-12, however, is just 22-18 overall and 10-19 in conference.

  • Michigan Ties: F. There is nothing here. Born in California and has always coached in the west.

  • Recruiting: B. Has done a pretty good job recruiting high-3 star types; classes average around 2.90 on Rivals. Not bad for Utah.

  • Chances/Loyalty: B-. NO ties to U-M or the midwest. Makes $2 million. If he's interested in running a big-time program, now is his chance (he's 54). I think he would take the chance if offered. Has been at Utah since 1994(!!!).

  • Demeanor: B. Boring press conferences would play well at U-M, but I'd like something better, and I think the fanbase would, too. Known as a good motivator and tactician.

  • Three Phases: B+. Is a defensive guy, but smart enough to find the right staff: new OC Dave Christensen's passing spread has catapulted Utah into one of the top scoring teams in the country. Would Christensen take the Utah job if Whittingham left?

  • Roster Fit: B. Defensively, it's a fit. Offensively, passing spread could use more space players, but simple route combinations have made his lesser athletes look great.

  • OVERALL GPA: 2.57 (B-/C+). If Whittingham brought his OC, or hired a proven one, this a hire I would support, though not be overjoyed with.

Football
Butch Jones
Ruffin McNeill
Kevin Sumlin
David Shaw
Kyle Whittingham

Comments

Ron Utah

October 14th, 2014 at 1:25 PM ^

A look at the remaining HCs I'll be covering, unless a new name pops up.  Dave Doeren has eliminated himself.

Next up will be coordinators and fringe candidates.

Joined: 02/28/2012

MGoPoints: 8375

Tater

October 14th, 2014 at 5:12 PM ^

If you're hiring a head coach based on future production, "roster fit" in regards to Michigan's temporary lack of speed is irrlevant.  I prefer a coach with a modern offense who wants speed and recruits it.  

Joined: 08/13/2008

MGoPoints: 30584

trustBlue

October 15th, 2014 at 12:07 AM ^

Pretty sure we tried that once already. Last thing we can afford is (another) coach who is going to spend 3-4 years losing while he tries to rebuild the roster from scratch to fit his scheme.  

I don't care what kind of offense a coach want to run, but #1 priority should be finding a coach who can come win right away with the roster that we have.  The program can't afford another rebuild. 

Joined: 04/14/2014

MGoPoints: 8169

Ron Utah

October 15th, 2014 at 11:52 AM ^

Roster fit needs to be included because fans are impatient.  If it takes a new coach four or five years to build the roster he needs to be successful, chances are good that he won't be coaching the team by the time his players are developed enough to win.

While I agree that we should find the best coach--regardless of how his philosophy fits the roster--the reality of college football today is that success is demanded in a short period of time, and being able to have success with the existing roster is a must.

Joined: 02/28/2012

MGoPoints: 8375

SFBlue

October 15th, 2014 at 2:00 AM ^

It is difficult to measure how good Butch Jones is, as he followed what Brian Kelly built most of his career.  The only time I had a chance to watch many of his games was when he was at CMU, and he did not impress me much as a game coach (e.g., he was schooled by Howard Schnellenberger in the '08 Motor City Bowl).

Joined: 11/02/2009

MGoPoints: 15699

Brodie

October 15th, 2014 at 3:33 PM ^

I'm also not sold on Jones... I think he's looking at a 7-5 year at Tennessee, tops, which is an improvement but not so much of one that I'd be hyper excited. I think in real terms he'd be about as good a get as someone like Al Golden or Jim McElwain who would come cheaper but with a lot less fanfare because they're not ESSEESEE guys.

Right now I'm much kind of sold on McElwain, who I think will be either 11-1 or 10-2 on the year, provided he doesn't keep Nuss (their offenses are similar as is, no need to keep him for continuity when he bears some responsability for the Morris incident). Les Miles grosses me out and would almost certainly keep Nuss or bring in Cam Cameron but I'm resigned to that being a thing that could happen.

Joined: 11/19/2008

MGoPoints: 10712

uminks

October 15th, 2014 at 12:02 AM ^

would be Les Miles. He would come to Michigan in a heartbeat to escape the tough SEC. He would have just enough career left to wait until Jim got sick of coaching in the NFL in 6 or 7 years. Miles would stabilize the program and probably win 10 or more games during and after his 2nd season. He will probably win 3 or 4 B1G championships and get into the playoffs a couple times during his Michigan HC career.  When Miles retires, Jim will take over and we will win many national championships.

Joined: 11/10/2009

MGoPoints: 32040

maize-blue

October 15th, 2014 at 9:26 AM ^

My opinion as well. It has to be Miles. The Harbaughs are not coming, I don't see it, at least not right now. Mullen's name will be thrown around, but to me it's arrogant to just assume that because we would want him, he would come here. I don't see Mullen here either. Miles would be the biggest name that Michigan could potentially get. With LSU seemingly having a down year, it may finally be the perfect time for the move.  

Joined: 01/10/2013

MGoPoints: 44662

AMazinBlue

October 15th, 2014 at 12:36 AM ^

1. Jim Harbaugh (80% chance if Bates is AD, w/ Brandon...0%)

2. John Harbaugh  (50% chance w/ Bates, w/ Brandon 0%)

3. Dan Mullen  (25% AD notwitchstanding I think he stays in the South)

4. Butch Jones (10%, not leaving Tenn for UM, Tenn would match or raise an offer we make)

5. Les Miles (50% if different AD, w/ Brandon 0%)

6.  If top 5 don't pan out, we're screwed

 

The pick MUST be a big name, no "didn't see that coming" guys.  New AD, make a splash and hit HR with first coach or we become Iowa or Purdue

Joined: 10/12/2008

MGoPoints: 7197

tjking82

October 22nd, 2014 at 5:52 PM ^

I have 4 of the same top 5 as you.  However, I'd switch out Butch Jones with Gary Patterson.  I think our chances with him are similar to Mullen - sure you're at a program you've got to the top, but historically it's not very good.  You'd have better facilities, better recruiting, more money, and could really establish a dynasty at Michigan.  Whether they believe they can do so at a program like Miss St or TCU is anybody's guess.

They're both long shot hires, but well worth the phone call.

Joined: 07/14/2008

MGoPoints: 178

Brodie

October 15th, 2014 at 12:58 AM ^

Just a note... Shaw lived in Michigan for most of his high school years while his father coached with the Lions. If they had stayed in Detroit a little while longer, he might well have been Michigan alum David Shaw.

Joined: 11/19/2008

MGoPoints: 10712

SFBlue

October 15th, 2014 at 1:15 AM ^

Stanford fans grouse about David Shaw like Michigan fans did about Lloyd Carr (mostly re conservative play calls).  That is neither here nor there to me.  I like the guy.  Assuming the Harbaughs are off the table, and Mullen as well, this is best-case-scenario for me.

Joined: 11/02/2009

MGoPoints: 15699

BlueinOK

October 15th, 2014 at 12:34 PM ^

It's gonna be a Harbaugh, Miles or Mullen at this point. Those are the only guys who could really excite the fanbase and bring back hope. Just think what this place would be like if Jim Harbaugh was hired? 

Joined: 12/06/2009

MGoPoints: 15029

Wolfman

October 16th, 2014 at 5:43 PM ^

He was able to win immediately with a roster he would not have built, but since his players have taken over have regressed each year. He can recruit with anyone, but instead of evolving along with the game tends to stay in the old, boring systems whereas a combination approach seems to be the best fit in today's game. Have and use smash mouth when necessary, but align that with the players needed to play today's coupling of the past with the present.

Joined: 07/23/2008

MGoPoints: 8259

Wolfman

October 16th, 2014 at 5:53 PM ^

He was able to win immediately with a roster he would not have built, but since his players have taken over have regressed each year. He can recruit with anyone, but instead of evolving along with the game tends to stay in the old, boring systems whereas a combination approach seems to be the best fit in today's game. Have and use smash mouth when necessary, but align that with the players needed to play today's coupling of the past with the present.

Best example I can give is the gathering of Long, Hart, Henne, Arrington and Manningham with the rest of the offense being solid. The only game he unleashed them was his last vs. FL where the scoreboard, due to uncharacteristic Hart fumbles, is not reflective of the "score at will" domination UM possessed that day. They could not handle all of these weapons and I don't want to see another coach who does not realize what we have. He had a solid 11 on defense but that was it. No more Harris's or the like. Obi Ezeh and the cast made it virtually impossible for the "good enough" first and last lines of defense to overcome their deficiencies. We need a coach that can produce both. It is possible, as Bama has proven and LSU to a lesser degree - actually almost all schools in said conference - to blend size, speed and power together to create some damn fine teams. That is the state of the game today and playing with yesterday's rosters will keep you playing catch up. This is why teams like UT and Rutgers and even PSU can stay on the field with our over recruitment of like players at different positions.

Joined: 07/23/2008

MGoPoints: 8259

ChalmersE

October 18th, 2014 at 3:35 PM ^

Given the talent, he seems to be getting a lot of his players. Lots of Midwest ties including a couple in Michigan. Obviously not near a first choice, but he might be a better option than some of the other names thrown out.

Joined: 11/19/2008

MGoPoints: 5196

I dumped the Dope

October 19th, 2014 at 8:53 AM ^

Bryan Harsin (Boise St)...watched them v Fresno St.  Yes its not the offense we run but I think that's the offense with spread concepts that's going to be the one with the most success going forward.  Having a QB who is prone to run (not like Denard who was almost a guaranteed run) puts a huge amount of stress on the defense.  If its managed like Golston last night who just dove/slid down to accept the yardage and negate all the damaging hits.

Anyway, getting back to Harsin, they played what I though was solid defense.  It wasn't a LOL--we slowed you guys down!! type of defense.

Another way to look at this is, if the HC has coordinators or position coaches with  midwest ties, then that is good enough not to have the midwest ties himself.  Its best not to abandon Michigan...as Dantonio will cherry pick...and best not to abandon Ohio, as O-St will get super strong with all the best recruits and no competition.

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