CC: Viewing Dan Mullen via Advanced Stats
Thought it would be worthwhile to do a second deep dive on Dan Mullen's background. I did a first pass on Mullen in late September when he had just beaten LSU for his biggest win of his career, can be read here. At the time I was only looking at the NCAA data for total offense/defense. This time I have a much more expanded statistical data - which tells me to worry about the same things about Dan Mullen.
Mullen is to 2014's search IMO what Kevin Sumlin was to 2013; the name of the moment. A year later Sumlin's shine has dissipated quite a bit. This is my worry with Mullen. If I brought him up as a CC 12 months ago I would have been laughed off the board. So does 1 year justify changing that?
12.5 months ago Mullen was sporting a 4-6 record with 2 games to go in year FIVE of his regime. Those 4 wins were over baby seals Alcorn State, Troy, Bowling Green, and soon to be 2-10 Kentucky. He did beat 3-9 Arkansas and won the Egg Bowl over 8-5 Ole Miss to finish off the year 6-6 before the bowl. So his regular season included 1 win of note...in year 5. Bret Bielema has done better in year 2 of his regime at Arkansas IMO in terms of upsets.
And his first 4 years were not super impressive either; until 2014 Dan Mullen spent 5 years beating bad teams he should and losing to almost every decent team that came across his desk. Including an UM team that had given up on its coach.
2009-2013 wins and losses
List of wins year by year
- 2009: Jackson State, (2-10) Vanderbilt, Middle Tenn State, (7-6) Kentucky, (9-4) #20 Miss State.
- 2010: Memphis, (6-7) Georgia, Alcorn State, Houston, (8-5) Florida, UAB, Kentucky, (4-8) Ole Miss, Michigan
- 2011: Memphis, LA Tech, UAB, Kentucky, Tennessee-Martin, (2-10) Ole Miss
- 2012: Jackson State (3-9) Auburn, Troy, South Alabama, Kentucky, (5-7) Tennessee, Middle Tennessee, (4-8) Arkansas
- 2013: Alcorn State, Troy, Bowling Green, Kentucky, (3-9) Arkansas, (8-5) Ole Miss, (10-4) Rice
List of losses year by year
- 2009: Auburn, LSU, Georgia Tech, Houston, Florida, Alabama, Arkansas
- 2010: Auburn, LSU, Alabama, Arkansas
- 2011: Auburn, LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas
- 2012: Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss, Northwestern
- 2013: Oklahoma State, Auburn, LSU, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama
Miss State beat NOBODY of value in years 3 and 4 of his regime. In year 5 he beat one - an 8-5 Ole Miss. That is 3 years with no regular season wins of value other than 1 team. He has a massive dearth of wins over >.500 Power 5 conference teams. Every single opportunity he had to spring a major upset ala Arkansas in year 2 under Bret he failed in those years 3, 4, and 5. In year 4 he had a team that could not beat Northwestern in a bowl.
His best win in 5 years was 8-5 Florida. His 2nd and 3rd best wins were rivalry games vs decent, not great Ole Miss in year 1 and year 5. I cannot find a 4th best win in his first 5 years - it would be between Rice in a bowl and UM in a bowl. So in 64 (including 4 bowls) opportunities in 5 years I am at a loss to find a 4th quality win.
Yes as many have said "he coaches at the Indiana of the SEC" but Harbaugh took over 1-11 Stanford and by year 3 had beaten top 10 teams like USC and Oregon. And Stanford is not any different than a Purdue level program - they bounced from bad to average for most of 25 years. So the open question is - why no major upsets in 5 years, why cannot you do what Bert B did at Arkansas in year 2 in 5 years? He had way more opportunities than most coaches to spring upsets as he is in the SEC West.
But let's look at the stats because it tells us a lot about how a team is built. It also disputes some notions. Right now the meme is Dan Mullen is an offensive guru due to working with Urban Meyer and his offenses at MSU. The data shows otherwise - this is not a Mike Leach offense or Kevin Sumlin offense or any high powered offense. MSU is not a team that spent 5 years losing 45-31 under an offensive guru like a Texas Tech did under Leach. If anything MSU was an above average defensive team whose offense was sorely lacking for 5 years.
I am worried Mullen is getting the "Brett Favre" effect. Lions fans will recall so many "offensive gurus" who coached Brett Favre. They's go elsewhere (including the Lions HC) and be exposed. Brett Favre made a lot of people a lot of money they didn't deserve.
This is always a worry with hiring a coordinator who works under a HC whose expertise is his side of the ball. Urban Meyer has had high powered offenses with any OC he works with. So to say "Dan Mullen developed Chris Leak" is no different than saying "Tom Herman developed JT Barrett". No folks - Urban friggin Meyer is the consistent piece there - right Tim Tebow? Did UF's offense go thru the crapper when Mullen left? No.
Here is 7 years of data including 2008 (Croom's last season) for comparison
| W/L | Tot Off | oFEI | oS&P+ | Tot Def | dFEI | dS&P+ | ||
| 2008 | 4-8 | 113 | 106 | 106 | 35 | 51 | 92 | |
| 2009 | 5-7 | 65 | 44 | 71 | 58 | 72 | 38 | |
| 2010 | 9-4 | 42 | 69 | 56 | 49 | 12 | 22 | |
| 2011 | 7-6 | 84 | 88 | 63 | 35 | 28 | 33 | |
| 2012 | 8-5 | 79 | 87 | 51 | 52 | 59 | 43 | |
| 2013 | 7-6 | 42 | 46 | 56 | 18 | 25 | 14 | |
| 2014 | 10-2 | 9 | 22 | 5 | 79 | 11 | 6 |
For comparison here is U of M's 8-5 2012 team so we can compare to a decent but not great team
| W/L | Tot Off | oFEI | oS&P+ | Tot Def | dFEI | dS&P+ | ||
| UM | 8-5 | 78 | 25 | 9 | 13 | 26 | 29 |
My advice is to ignore the NCAA's "total offense" and "total defense" measures and drift your eyes to the advanced stats. Why? Total offense and total defense measure nothing but total yards gained or given up in a game - they are simple measures that do not adjust for strength of schedule, garbage time, conferences, or anything. See the disparity in UM's 2012 Total Offense vs advanced stats or MSU's 2014 Total Defense vs advanced stats. So look at FEI and S&P+ instead..
Let's exclude 2009 because you can't do much as a coach in year 1 when you take over a bad program but begin to recruit and adjust your team. From 2010 forward we see a team that until 2014 had Greg Mattison type defenses (excluding 2012). That's not bad but not great. 2014 was different in that was a very good defense via advanced stats - although you'd never know it by using total defense via the NCAA.
As for the offense. Offensive guru? Hell no. This was a mediocre offense for 5 years. Only in 2014 with an early Heisman Trophy candidate did it take off. Seeing how bad it was in years 3-4 is very troubling. 2011-2012 advanced stats mirror what 2014 UM is doing; FEIs in the 80s for a Power 5 team is putrid. And no Miss State doesnt recruit like Purdue or Indiana - its classes were generally in the 30s in Mullen era, which is no different than Michgan State and not much below where a Nebraska or Penn State recruits. And ahead of Stanford and Wisconsin. So there is no excuse for this bad of an offense for 5 years, including 2 years of Michigan 2014 level offense.
As for year 6 in the regime? Stats look awesome across the board. But if you are hiring a coach for what he did in year 6 after 5 year's of mediocre you are taking a massive risk.
Throw all that together PLUS the transition costs of switching to his run based spread where we just got rid of all the type of players that fit it and I do not think Dan Mullen is a good risk as a HC for UM. Bert B is already doing better things in year 2 at Arkansas than Mullen did in year 5 at Miss State. Some say Mullen is not a 1 year wonder - I say thus far until proven otherwise next year - he is.
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Football Outsiders FEI measure and (3) Football Outsiders S&P+ measure are 2 advanced stats I am using. Both of these incorporate various strength of schedule adjustments, garbage time adjustments, blowout adjustments etc to give a more comprehensive view of a unit other than yards gained or yards given up. Read more about them here and here.
December 4th, 2014 at 12:58 PM ^
RE: your last paragraph: Michigan coaches don't get to year 6 unless they win.
This was a really well-done post. Thanks for the insights
December 4th, 2014 at 12:59 PM ^
alum96, appreciate your effort. This really put the light on his real record, and the associated risks. Go Blue
December 5th, 2014 at 8:04 AM ^
December 5th, 2014 at 11:16 AM ^
That is true. What is suspicious to me is that it took Mullen a stacked depth chart, 7 home games, and crossovers vs. Kentucky and Vanderbilt to pull this off in a HUGE down year for the SECW. I have a hard time telling if 10-2 is MSU's ceiling or Mullen's but given that he still has a losing record in the conference and his overall record isn't much better than Jackie Sherrill's while there, he just seems more risky than most of the "had a good year so he's gonna get paid" coaches of recent memory.
December 4th, 2014 at 1:16 PM ^
December 4th, 2014 at 1:24 PM ^
Miles offenses are not "that bad" even in down years per advanced stats - and he has never had horrid offense years like Mullen has had in years 3-4. Ever. Yes he recruits far better of course.
Here is data from the Miles story I did a few weeks ago. He has elite defenses with average offenses most years. But there are no FEI 80s or anything craptastic like that. (2014 is not fully updated, the data was 2 weeks ago)
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/cc-refuting-les-miles-has-regressed-past-few…
| W/L | Tot Off | oFEI | oS&P+ | Tot Def | dFEI | dS&P+ | ||
| 2005 | 11-2 | 60 | * | 14 | 3 | * | 11 | |
| 2006 | 11-2 | 11 | * | 5 | 3 | * | 1 | |
| 2007 | 12-2 | 26 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2008 | 8-5 | 55 | 44 | 26 | 32 | 47 | 33 | |
| 2009 | 9-4 | 112 | 58 | 45 | 26 | 18 | 23 | |
| 2010 | 11-2 | 86 | 20 | 35 | 12 | 9 | 13 | |
| 2011 | 13-1 | 86 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| 2012 | 10-3 | 85 | 46 | 37 | 8 | 6 | 7 | |
| 2013 | 10-3 | 35 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 38 | 35 | |
| 2014 | 7-3 | 67 | 38 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 3 |
December 4th, 2014 at 6:47 PM ^
I'm convinced he's the guy.
December 4th, 2014 at 7:37 PM ^
There is no need to do it, it would look a lot like Miles teams - he has teams anywhere from very good to great for 13-14 years. If Stoops wants to come to UM and Jimbo says no, you ask where can we meet you to drop off the check?
December 4th, 2014 at 2:22 PM ^
Thanks for putting this together. I've never been particularly sold on Mullen, and this gives some data points that support that feeling. I mean he's certainly not a bad coach, and Miss St. isn't an easy place to win by any means, but this reminds me a little of Hoke: a mediocre record at a tough place to coach. Mullen almost seems like Schiano circa 2006, and look how people react now to the CC: Schiano sentiment. While Mullen certainly could work out, it's a risk, and his record stands in pretty stark contrast to excellent coaches like Harbaugh, Meyer, Saban, etc., who have truly excelled everywhere they've been.
December 4th, 2014 at 1:36 PM ^
Also I am not going to crap on Mullen's 2014 but in retrospect his 3 big wins in October over LSU, Auburn and A&M are not as awesome in retrospect. A&M is a 7-5 team, and the other 2 are 4 loss teams.
Most likely any of those 3 teams would probably finish top 3 in the Big 10 (and Auburn would probably win the Big 10) but when he beat them they were thought of in a much higher light. Also MSU gave Alabama a whale of a game so respect there. So I am not disputing this year as very very very good - it is just not as great as it looked like as we were going through those wins at the time.
And 1 very very good year does not erase all the ho hum of the first 5 years. I would not be surprised to see Bret's 2015 Arkansas team be better than Mullen's 2015 team based on what I saw this year from Arkansas - could have beaten both Bama and Miss State.
December 5th, 2014 at 12:48 AM ^
Of course people are going to think less of teams you beat after the fact.
And as for Auburn...they just put up almost 700 yards on a NFL JV team (Bama).
December 5th, 2014 at 1:25 AM ^
Steve! You didnt denegrate Les Miles in your comment, I'm shocked.
In case you missed it, i said Auburn is good enough to win the Big 10. But there is a difference between being ranked in the top 3 in the country and being a 4 loss team. And A&M was wildly overrated to begin the year - top 10 with that win over South Carolina. LSU was shut out by Arkansas fergodsakes and had 4 losses.
10-2 Auburn is viewed differently than 8-4 Auburn. 9-3 A&M is different than 7-5 A&M. Etc
December 4th, 2014 at 1:30 PM ^
Dan Mullen is a good coach, but by no means the guy we should hire! We have to think much bigger and much more consistent.
December 4th, 2014 at 1:35 PM ^
Awesome work Alum! Thanks for doing this. I'm also not enamored with Mullen. IMHO, if it's not Harbaugh, it's Miles vs. Graham. Would love to see what this would like for Graham - I'm a big fan of his, lack of cultural fit notwithstanding.
December 4th, 2014 at 1:49 PM ^
I did a Todd Graham diary 2 months ago at the same time I did Mullen's - you can go back thru the archive and find it. I didnt do advanced stats for him but he has a way better track record IMO. If I was Florida I would have hired Todd Graham. His issue is he is a mercenary of sorts but as a pure football coach IMO he is top 12 in the nation. So is Meyer and Dantonio - we need a similar ilk. I dont think Mullen is in that class.
This was supposed to be a rebuild year for ASU. They have 7 seniors on their 2 deep (44 players).. They started 3 TRUE freshman (not RS) on their defense. They could be NC contenders next year if they can find adequate QB play. And they play in a much more balanced conference, second to only the SEC IMO. Graham is basically Kevin Sumlin's offense combined with a Greg Mattison level of defense.
I wish Graham did not have his "flightly" habits - he would be a no brainer after Harbaugh/Patterson if he was from Ohio or PA rather than TX and he did not hop jobs.
December 4th, 2014 at 2:36 PM ^
That diary and I think if Harbaugh is Plan A, Graham should be co-plan B with Miles. If someone other than those 3 is hired (and it's not someone we can assume is interested a la Stoops or Patterson), the hiring will be a miss.
December 4th, 2014 at 1:41 PM ^
Mullen can't recruit the kind of personnel to go to MSU as will go to the bigger SEC programs. He can't even get the same personnel Ole Miss gets. For the resources he has compared to the competition, it is amazing that he is doing anything in the SEC.
Mullen just coached the SEC equivalent of Purdue to a 10-2 season.
December 4th, 2014 at 2:03 PM ^
This is a misnomer. We are in an age of partial parity where teams like Kansas State, TCU, Baylor, Arizona State can be national contenders. No one is asying go win the SEC West every 2nd year. But pull a major upset over a >.500 Auburn, A&M, LSU at some point in your first 5 years. Where are any major upsets like Bret B was able to do in year 2?
Here are Miss State's recruiting rankings in the Mullen era - if you want to compare it to Purdue or Indiana or whatever feel free to do so - MSU's recruits have been just behind what a program like Nebraska gets:
- 2009: 25th in the nation (Rivals)
- 2010: 38th
- 2011: 44th
- 2012: 30th
- 2013: 26th
These classes woud be the basis of his teams the past 4-5 years. It is better than what MSU, Wisconsin, or Stanford get on average. It is WAY better than what Stanford had in Jim's era when he upset USC and Oregon.
It is just behind what Penn State and Nebraska get. By a few slots. It is enough to win he SEC West often? NO! But not enough to pull "a major upset" along the way especially with a "one of the best offensive minds in CFB"? It is nothing like what Purdue or Indiana get.
If you want to talk about people who are recruiting like Purdue and Indiana and still winning - Bill Snyder's average KSU classes are often in the 60s. Gary Patterson's TCU classes are often in the 50s.
December 4th, 2014 at 4:38 PM ^
Here's what you're missing. Those numbers are pretty decent nationally. Yet, the only time he had better than the 11th best class (according to 247 composite rankings) in the SEC was in 2009 when he was all the way up at 8th in the SEC. So, he's pulling in the Purdue and Indiana type classes for the SEC. He's working with a significant talent disparity within his own conference.
I feel you're a bit biased in this post. For instance, this quote: "Did UF's offense go thru the crapper when Mullen left? No." would be laughed at by Florida people. They dropped to 8 in oFEI and 9 in oS&P in Tebow's senior year with everybody but Percy Harvin back (the pouncy twins, Aaron Hernandez, Riley Cooper, the other running backs, the offense was absolutely loaded). Then in 2010, they dropped to 68 and 50, respectively. I'd say they went through the crapper when Mullen left.
I'm not sure Mullen's a home run candidate. But I think there's evidence there that he can coach. He's coached in the SEC when it's been at its absolute beatliest. Playing in the division that has produced 80% of the SEC's good teams in that time frame. He's managed not to absolutely shit himself faced with these odds. And when the division finally came back down toward the rest of college football, his team had a breakthrough. You dismiss beating the teams "he should beat" as if that's some guarantee in football. Look at who Sylvester Croom lost to. Or even cheatin' ass Jackie Sherrill during his last few seasons. Beating "who you're supposed to" is no guarantee at Miss. St. So he didn't manage to pull the upsets until this year? Doesn't mean he can't coach. Even being in some of those games, which they tended to be, was impressive.
I think the evidence points to a guy that can clearly coach who, given at least resource parity with his competition, is going to be pretty good.
December 4th, 2014 at 7:51 PM ^
Also, his rankings are propped up by large class sizes. The average ranking of recruits is not very good.
December 4th, 2014 at 1:43 PM ^
Thanks for the leg work and the post.
December 4th, 2014 at 1:46 PM ^
Meh. OK, now let's look at mine.
December 4th, 2014 at 2:03 PM ^
I think he would be like a Pelini. Always beats the teams he should but not very good against other top teams.
If the entire Michigan fan base starts chanting Harbaugh... Harbaugh... Harbaugh... Harbaugh... it will be too loud to ignore.
December 4th, 2014 at 2:04 PM ^
Harbaugh, Harbaugh, Harbaugh, Harbaugh, Harbaugh.
December 4th, 2014 at 2:12 PM ^
Thanks for doing that research. You have some very valid points. Honestly, I don't think Mullen is anybody's top choices for many of the reasons you pointed out. But If Harbaugh isn't coming, it really comes down to who is left? There's no one out there, besides pulling off an out of left field hire like Stoops, that doesn't come with some large question marks.
December 4th, 2014 at 2:18 PM ^
It's always great to look at the data from many angles. That being said, in my opinion, FEI and S&P are lacking what it takes to see the whole picture especially in the Mullen's case. There are flaws in all advanced stats. It doesn't mean you get rid of them but you need to use them in addition to the more generic stats such as total yards, scoring, yards per play etc. You have to really pay attention to who grades out highly on some of these advanced stats lists to see some of the flawed analysis in only using advanced stats to grade a team.
Looking over the FEI ranking for offense in 2014 leaves me scratching my head. I do not feel that in any way, shape, or form Mississippi States offense is behind Pitt, Miami, Navy, Georgia Tech, and South Carolina. There are others I feel should be behind Miss State as well but these are the teams I saw play more than 3 games. The biggest problems for advanced stats to overcome in football is in the calculation of the effectiveness of an offense versus the difficulty of the competition being played. This is a very difficult area to use stats to express. You can try and place values on competition factors but it is not anywhere near an exact science.
They are penalizing Miss State far too much in their rankings and not adjusting for strength of competition nearly enough. I love advanced stats at times but they are also very unreliable at times. You have to really evaluate what you are looking for on a team by team basis. I would encourage all of the readers to look deeper into the FEI and S&P rankings and decide for themselves. I am however much more impressed by Mullen's offense than Pitt, UNC, Miami, Navy, and Georiga Tech. Georgia Tech is number one in OFEI. Come on now. UCLA number 3, Pittsburgh number 10. It's not terribly accurate to people who really watch these teams play.
S&P seems a bit more reliable but still has it's share of head scratchers. S&P teams ranked far too high include Ole Miss, Georgia Tech, LSU, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt and Stanford. Again doesn't mean advanced stats have no place but do not make the mistake of placing your entire evaluation of an offense or defense on these metrics.
I don't think Mullen will leave MSU but he is an extremely impressive candidate. It's ridiculously difficult to win at Mississippi State. A factor that I think is not really given the weight that is needed in order to evaluate where Mississippi State is right now. They have an impressive offense and defense, Prescott will be back next season. He's building a very good program in Starkville which makes it very likely he would be successful with Michigan's resources and the level of competition in the B1G. The biggest problem for Mullen in the SEC is bringing in talent. He is getting the left over recruits after they are picked clean by Florida, Florida State, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, etc. Mississippi State finally has a decent QB for Mullen but it took a few years for him to find it because of the inability for Mississippi State to attract guys he would have liked to have had. At Michigan he would be able to recruit regionally and nationally. He will be able to find more Dak Prescotts than Tyler Russells.
December 4th, 2014 at 2:40 PM ^
Hi Woodson
In any 1 year of stats I generally agree with you. It is not an end all be all. But I provided 3 categories for both offense and defense.
Also I am not looking at this in 1 year. I am looking at this over 6 years. Let's throw away 2014 and say Mullen went 12-0 and had a magical year where every stats Miss State was #1 in the country, FEI, S&P+, total offense/defense. It doesn't take away from the body of work. Even if every stat is off by 5-7, he has had lousy offenses for 5 years, including 2 years of 2014 Michigan level offenses. It cannot all be wrong.
The general case for 5 years is MSU had Greg Mattison type defenses with mediocre offenses. That stands if all the data is off by 5-8 slots a year.
As for Miss State in 2014 the place I see MSU hurt is methodical drives. That is the % of drives of 10+ plays a game. They rank 49th in the country. One could argue that penalizes big play offenses. But Bama is ranked 55th in the country on that measure and has the #5 FEI offense in the country.
Their first down rank (the # of drives that resulted in at least 1 first down) was average at 37. You brought up Georgia Tech. They were #1 in the country. South Carolina was 13th. South Carolina lost due to a putrid defense this year - their offense was actually pretty good.
Miss State SOS is hurt by them playing no one in OOC and their crossovers were with Vanderbilt and Kentucky - they avoided Missouri or Georgia which were the only 2 viable teams in the East this year.
Miss State's offense FEI is clustered with Michigan State, TCU, Wisconsin, and Kansas State. I don't think that misrepresents Mullen's offense at all. (In fact I am surprised TCU is that low but they got dinged on SOS)
December 4th, 2014 at 7:11 PM ^
I get what you are saying. For the most part other than this year, Mullen's offense at MSU hasn't been amazing. And I get that. My opinion is that there are reasons why he hasn't had a dynamic offense at MSU until this year.
I only used 2014 to show the weaknesses in FEI and S&P as a statistical barometer for whether or not an offense is elite. I liked Georgia Tech's offense and South Carolina's offense and I watched those teams play several times. Miss State had a much more explosive and better overall offense than those two teams and it wasn't very close. So having Miss State sitting in the 20's is kind of crazy in my opinion. Mississippi State was a top ten offense this season I have little doubt of that. Now for whatever reason they slid down to the 20's in advanced metrics, as you explained it might have to do with many different statistical inputs but I find it hard to believe that Miss State was 22 and Georgia Tech is number 1 in OFEI. It just doesn't add up for my personal evaluation of those teams. Georgia Tech had a nice offense but they would have been crushed by some of the defenses Mississippi State played this season. I find the rankings highly suspect and for that reason I just encourage readers to really dive into not only statistics but watching the game films of these teams.
Now the question becomes, based on whatever statistical or visual data we choose to look at, does Mullen have what it takes to be highly successful at Michigan? I totally understand how some people would not be overwhelmed by Mullen but I am just giving my opinion as to why he would be successful here. You have to take a lot of factors into consideration about his time at Miss State. 3 factors stand out to me. Poor overall talent, no QB, and tough competition.
First his overall depth and talent was very poor when coming to MSU. Maybe not as poor as some schools in the entire nation but very, very poor for the SEC and particuarly the SEC West. The recruiting classes could be ranked mid 30's but compared to the rest of the powers in the SEC that's very poor. It's not always the raw numbers but the context of the numbers that's most important. It's no wonder he couldn't pull an upset for years in this conference, he was at a major talent disadvantage and has only now gotten some good quality talent and depth into the program.
Second I think he finally has a QB. Prescott is miles better than anyone else he has had at Miss State and that is because it's very difficult to pull big time recruits to MSU. His offense looks very good with a quality signal caller. His offenses prior to 2014 had varying degrees of success but there were a couple years I liked his offense even without a real good QB. However as you have said alum, his offenses were by no means dynamic. I think his offense was finally dynamic this year as he had an experienced, talented QB. Prescott would also be coming back, as do most of their skill players, so I think 2015 will be a big year for their offense if Mullen stays.
Now this last factor is extremely important and that is competition level. Miss State plays in a loaded conference. The problem that advanaced statistics have is comparing teams despite the teams not playing the exact same competition. Miss State plays in the toughest conference in college football and had two of their hardest games on the road. This really effects statistical output. The advanced metrics can guess how much it effected their overall numbers but I would have to say they are not getting the formula correct if they have a team like Georgia Tech ranked number 1 in OFEI. The comepetition factor is huge when you are judging a program like Miss State, they just are simply at a disadvantage when competing with the big boys in the conference. Perhaps Mullen is just now turning the corner and changing the culture at Miss State and building something special, we will see. It seems he believes he can make Miss State a consistently winning program which really could be a problem for Michigan's chances of hiring him.
I think he is a slamdunk hire and will be highly successful but I can see why others wouldn't believe that is the case. Alum, I think you did a great job of explaining why he could very well not be successful at Michigan. I think it's important to explore all of the factors in assessment of these coaching candidates. Hopefully U of M is doing this type of thorough evaluation and coming up with a list of people who might be available if either of the Harbaughs aren't available.
December 4th, 2014 at 7:35 PM ^
No problem. I have a view - and I realize others have a different view. My main push back to you is as a QB guru he should have found a QB to work his system at some point in 5 years. Even failed Rich Rod, found both Tate and Denard in his 2nd year at UM. There is no excuse for a talent rich area of the country not to produce one guy for Miss State to utilize in half a decade. After 6-7 teams in the south Miss State is competing with Vanderbilt, Kentucky, whomever for a QB - Denard was a 3 star athlete (not a pure QB), Mullen could have found somone like that in half a decade.
JT Barrett was the #7 dual threat QB in the country at OSU. He was not a top 5 QB overall or something a Mullen could not get. In fact Miss state landed the #8 dual threat QB in that class right behind Barrett, guy named Cord Sandberg. So he can get those type of QBs - he needed to develop one at some point earlier to have meaningful success.
https://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/ranking…
I am hearing a lot of woe is me in terms of recruiting - Miss State recruits pretty darn well nationally. Not LSU Auburn Bama level but not much different than Arkansas or South Carolina or whomever.
And yes hopefully the UM dept is doing way more than what me or Brian does. Some days you wonder. :P
December 4th, 2014 at 2:28 PM ^
This is a good post. Lots of good points here.
You just reminded me why I want Bielema pretty badly if we don't get Harbaugh. More than I want Miles.
December 4th, 2014 at 2:38 PM ^
Yes I watched 3 Arkansas game this year and that team is lacking playmakers but a b**** to play against. Very tough defense with a developing run offense - it looked a lot like Wisconsin already. QB is not a playmaker and they dont have great skill players. I was saying all thru November even when Arkansas was winless in the SEC I thought they coudl win the Big 10 west and I stick by that. If not win it, they'd beat Nebraska and come in 2nd behind Wiscy - Arkansas is a faster version of Minnesota right now.
It is too bad Bret is such a douche. He is actually a pretty damn good football coach. I give credit to Barry Alvarez - he knows his football coaches, both Bret and Gary Anderson are quality football coaches it seems.
December 4th, 2014 at 2:49 PM ^
They are indeed, a bitch to play against, and they pitched back-to-back shutouts. I posted in a different thread that his offense's pass ypg and rush ypg are pretty much exactly the same as our 2011 numbers, which had Molk, Denard, Hemmingway, etc.
I consider him being a douche to be a resume enhancer. I want an asshole who is going to tweak Sparty and OSU and then beat them on the field too. The offense that he left behind puts up spread numbers with a manball scheme. He runs a manball offense that is "9 yards and a cloud of dust" when it is fully clicking and I think that he could get us there very fast. And we already have the recruits for it. I can almost convince myself that I would want him more than Harbaugh.
December 4th, 2014 at 2:33 PM ^
Great post. I'd be okay with Mullen, but the the "look what he did at MSU" and "look at his Os at FL" have to contend with looking at who he actually beat as you've done. And they have to remember Urbz and Tebow were at FL.
His resume is okay, but there are plenty of questions and other guys with better resumes.
December 4th, 2014 at 2:40 PM ^
Three notions:
1) That his experience as Urban Meyer's OC at Florida adding something to the resume that his time at Mississippi State doesn't seem to capture.
2) That Mississippi State is a terrible program where it's really hard to win consistently, rendering any winning season anomolous and worthy of praise, and a 10-win season much more than that.
3) That this current 10-win season is indicative of future success and not anomolous.
I do think #1 is valid, but I'm skeptical of #2 and #3. I'm not dismissive of those notions, nor wholly convinced they are false, but rather I question whether they are more probable than the alternatives.
This is why I put Mullen at #6 on my list (now #5 with Patterson off the board). I think he has considerable upside but more potential downside than his boosters assume. And, like you, I question whether yet another schematic transition is something we are ready to tolerate. Well, no--let me put it another way: the fanbase will tolerate a schematic transition, but only if there are immediate and sustainable results, as when Urban Meyer took over OSU. I doubt anyone, realistically, has the stomach for another rebuilding/rebranding campaign.
tl;dr Mullen could be great, but I also see some serious question marks.
December 4th, 2014 at 2:59 PM ^
I completely agree with this re transition. We need to win, now; the program is on the edge of losing a ton of support (just look at attendance), and I don't think the fanbase has the patience for the growing pains of another Rodriguez style transition period. This is why I would want Harbaugh over Chip Kelly in the hypothetical world even if Harbaugh had none of his ties to Michigan; both have shown that their systems will be successful long term, but Harbaugh's scheme fits who we have now.
December 4th, 2014 at 3:38 PM ^
I think the transition argument is spotty at best. The longest run for the team last season was made by Shane Morris. Malzone is not a statue.
Denard Robinson isn't walking back through that door, but it's entirely possible to run a spread-n-shred type offense with a QB who can run some, but isn't a home run threat. Threetsherridammit isn't happening again.
December 4th, 2014 at 4:12 PM ^
I would take a Chip Kelly or an Urban Meyer because these guys dont just myopically cram players into their system, they build their system around their players. Every QB Urban coaches looks like a potential Heisman winner, where its a Tebow/Braxton type, a Chris Leak/JT Barret type or a Kenny Guiton. Chip Kelly went to Philly, immediately dumped the only QB with any ability to run, and then built his offense around a statue like Nick Foles. The Eagles offense bares almost no resemblance to his offense at Oregon. Unfortunately, outside of Kelly or Urban, I dont know of any other spread-heavy coaches that I feel confident have the same flexibility in terms of building around their personnel. Mullen's sudden success this year seems mostly due to the emergence of Dak Prescott, so its hard to see him being able to be a quick success somewhere with a QB that is not ready made for his preferred system.
December 4th, 2014 at 3:54 PM ^
Excellent stuff. I made the exact same argument regarding Mullen - would he even have been a candidate one year ago? Absolutely not. I could even live with Kevin Sumlin-like downside, but the bigger concern is that you end up with a Gene Chizik.
I do think he deserves to be on the list because this season ought to count for something, but the idea of Mullen before Miles is a complete joke. I am also concerned about making another offensive transition. My number #1 question for any spread-style coach would be how they plan to win with the roster we have in place? If the answer is that they are going to force Shane Morris to run the zone-read a la Nick Sheridan 2008, they would be immediately removed from consideration. I am not opposed to running spread per se, but don't have another 4 years to wait for a coach to recruit and develop "his guys" before we start winning. Whoever it is better come in planning to win big in 2015 not 2019.
Do like the fact that he's shown some competence on the defensive side of the ball while being primarily an offensive guy. If he comes, lets make sure to bring his DC so we can avoid having to make another round of "if only we had Casteel" excuses.
December 4th, 2014 at 5:22 PM ^
December 4th, 2014 at 6:24 PM ^
Michigan was good under Lloyd Carr. What did that mean for Rich Rod 2-3 years later? Little. This is not the NFL where you keep your core around for 5-6 years. You lose all your talent in a 5 year period and have to constantly refresh and refurbish.
Bret took over a 4-8 team 2012 team. His first year was 3-9 in 2013. The 2011 Arkansas team is not going to be helping Bret beat teams in 2014. Just like the 2006 UM team wasnt helping Rich Rod in 2009. UM was #2 in the country going into OSU in November 2006 - what did it matter to our tire fire team of November 2009. That's 3 years - it's an eternity in college football.
Was Arkansas in as dire straight as Miss State 7 years ago? No. Was it in good shape. No. He's had to rebuild Arkansas and still has work to do. And has to play all the same tough opponents Mullen does.
December 4th, 2014 at 9:14 PM ^
December 4th, 2014 at 10:07 PM ^
I am arguing history doesn't mean much other than helping you get recruits.
See UM post Carr
See TN post Fulmer
See ND post Holtz
See UF post Meyer
What happened 3 years ago doesnt matter much to your team if your current coach screws it up. Look at all the resources OSU has and the great Tressel buffer they had built over a decade. In 1 year Fickell screwed that up and pushed OSU from a team "guaranteed" to win 10 teams to a .500 program.
So yes in 3 years a lot of work of the previous coach can go poof into the night and doesn't help the next coach that much.
December 4th, 2014 at 6:05 PM ^
The 2014 season needs to be analyzed in-depth - was the success something that he created or was it dumb luck? If he created the season then it is probably okay that he had medocre seasons leading up to it.
December 4th, 2014 at 9:51 PM ^
I wonder if Hackett's search firm has a statistician to consult with? Probably not.
December 4th, 2014 at 11:34 PM ^
There's probably more info on here than any search firm can provide.
December 5th, 2014 at 1:09 AM ^
- ...comparing Mullen at MSU to Les at LSU. That's apples/oranges. Compare Mullen to Okie State Les.
- Pulling upsets? That's what you want to base a hire on? Sure, beating good teams...but the flip side of pulling upsets and ending up with average records is bad losses.
- Todd Graham would be here less than 5 years. No way will M hire a guy like that, nor should they.
- So, is Jerry Kill a good coach? Can't upset Ohio State or Michigan (this year was not an upset); only beats lame teams
- If Kevin Wilson went 8-5 every year at Indiana but couldn't beat Ohio State, Michigan, Nebraska, Penn State, or Wisconsin, would you consider him a good coach?
Look, Mullen's not #1 on my list (haven't really written one down, but...), but to say he's medicore and hasn't done anything is just...
December 5th, 2014 at 1:33 AM ^
Spoke to soon higher on the page, when I said you didnt denegrate Miles. Here it is. I know Steve - Miles is a bottom 25 coach in the country :)
Again Miles is not on my short list of coaches I'd choose but most of my favorites are not available. So of "available candidates" he is above Mullen in my book. And like we already talked about in the past Miles was not at OK State long enough to know what he would do in year 5 and 6.
Kill beat 9-4 Nebraska in year 3 (last year) at Minn. Better than anything Mullen could muster in years 3 or 4. And hey he did it again in year 4. Mullen could not even beat a >.500 Big 5 conf team in year 3 or 4. So yes I consider him pretty darn good.
I didnt say Mullen "hasn't done anything". I think his first 5 years were very ho hum. He did something in year 6.
December 5th, 2014 at 10:06 AM ^
Great write-up. I had written up a similar wins/loss list some time ago when I was arguing Mullen was a bit overrated, and it was nice to see it updated. As noted during this season, his teams went from unranked to #1 by beating two 4-loss teams and 1 5-loss team. Congrats for doing it in the SEC, but he's a slightly flashier Franklin in my eyes. He'll be fine at a program, but for all the "he's only 42 years old" and "look what he did at MSU" doesn't mean he isn't just a good coach with limited upside. Lotta pluggers in college sports (UM just had one and fired him), and you can make a bunch of money being good but not great.
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