CC: THE_KNOWLEDGE or not, Harbaugh to Michigan is a done deal

Submitted by Communist Football on

Comrades,

The death of Communist Football in Ann Arbor, at the hands of fascist manball counter-revolutionaries, has kept me in hiding. I know many of you have been waiting for THE_KNOWLEDGE to weigh in on the coaching search. However, my crack intelligence analysts are convinced that Harbaugh to Michigan is a done deal, based on publicly available information. Here is why:

1. Lloyd Carr's pro-Harbaugh comments. As you know, Lloyd Carr has stated: "Everyone has an opinion, and I am no different. If I had a choice, I would choose Jim Harbaugh. But it will be Jim Hackett's decision, and that is as it should be." This has been interpreted by the capitalist media as simply Carr expressing his opinion. It is much more than that. Carr, being as close as he is to the Athletic Department, would not express his opinion if it was inconsistent with that of Hackett, because doing so would undermine Hackett's search process. You can be sure that Hackett would be pissed if Carr was pushing Hackett to make a different decision than one Hackett would make anyway. In addition, Carr is almost certain to have inside information as to Harbaugh's interest in the job; he wouldn't advocate for Harbaugh unless he knew that Harbaugh was interested.

2. The collapse of the Vegas betting line. The Vegas Harbaugh bet collapsing from 8-1 to 2-1, and then being pulled off the table, is not merely a sign of decadent western gamblers, but of inside information. Jeff Moss of DetroitSportsRag reached out to Sportsbook.ag, and found out something very interesting:

Hi there….our limits for this market were $2k max win per bet. Its a volatile high risk market where the public may know more than us. It was a novelty bet so none of the bets were there sizable, it was the amount of bets that got our attention as it didn’t matter how low we went, they just kept coming in… We’ve been researching it more and more we can’t explain the action other then (sic) someone might know more about his coaching situation than us. We might consider opening it up again, but at this point it’s off the board.

There was a sudden, and massive, bet on Harbaugh coming to Michigan. In the stock market, such surges are frequently, though not always, the result of inside information. 

3. Harbaugh has not quashed the Michigan rumors. Harbaugh was quick to shoot down rumors that he would go to Michigan under fascist AD Dave Brandon. That has clearly not happened in this case. Harbaugh genuinely loves his alma mater, and has zero incentive to harm his relationship with his former teammates and coaches by stringing Michigan along.

4. Hackett has told players that the search will likely be over after Christmas break. The NFL regular-season schedule ends on December 28. The 49ers could make the playoffs, throwing a wrench in this schedule, but Hackett's confidence in that timeline is telling.

5. Everything else we already know. The alienation of Harbaugh at San Francisco; the fact that Hackett as an interim AD has more flexibility to grant Harbaugh broad powers over the football program; the fact that several insiders have described Hackett as a longer-term hire; the fact that Harbaugh is objectively the best qualified candidate by a country kilometer; that Stephen Ross is a strong backer of Harbaugh coming to Michigan.

Even at 2:1 odds, decadent capitalists ought to take the bet that Harbaugh is coming to Michigan. The facts above make it extremely unlikely that any other outcome will take place.

Harbaugh's appointment would, of course, mean the end of Communist Football in Ann Arbor for the foreseeable future. But the arc of football is long, and it bends toward the read-option

Comments

dnak438

December 6th, 2014 at 11:06 PM ^

What is genuine is proved in the fire, what is false we shall not miss in our ranks. The opponents must grant us that youth has never before flocked to our colors in such numbers ... in the end, one will be found among us who will prove that the sword of enthusiasm is just as good as the sword of genius.

mgoblue0970

December 7th, 2014 at 12:47 AM ^

No.  It means nothing.  The line was 8-1.  Michigan bet it down to 2-1 but the money kept coming in even at 2-1.  So Vegas pulled it -- not that they know anything.

Move along, nothing to see here.

NateVolk

December 7th, 2014 at 9:39 AM ^

Absent solid word from the candidate himself, the odds strengthening and therefore payouts dropping (on him coming to Michigan) is far better information on what is likely to happen than the stacks of insider rumors we've seen.

I think you should read up on how Vegas works.

 

WolvinLA2

December 7th, 2014 at 2:45 PM ^

Of course they do.  So, in this instance, it means all the smart money was betting Harbaugh to Michigan, even when the odds when to near-even.  Vegas only pulls a bet when an incredible percentage is all betting on one side.

AnthonyThomas

December 8th, 2014 at 5:03 AM ^

Except you assume that a bunch of randos without inside knowledge drove the line down four-fold. Is that really that realistic? That so many people would place those bets in such a short amount of time if they didn't know something? It's not like this explosion of betting occurred the moment Hoke was fired. 

Sternrudder

December 8th, 2014 at 10:01 PM ^

The professionals in Vegas are good at making money.  They can smell it when people are betting with inside information and that's when they stop taking the bets.

There are a lot of people around Ann Arbor who have heard from credible sources that Jim is coming to Michigan.  It's a done deal.  They just have to wait for the proper time to announce it.

bluelaw2013

December 7th, 2014 at 12:53 AM ^

Carr said the choice was Hackett's to make.

But a coaching hire requires choices to be made by both the hirer and the hired.

So if Carr says the decision is Hackett's to make, then Harbaugh has already accepted.

. . .

Yes.

. . .

Prince Lover

December 7th, 2014 at 1:09 AM ^

I just can't quite say yet I believe he's coming. I guess I don't want to be let down if he doesn't maybe, I don't know. But this gets me closer to thinking.....god, could he really be coming?!?!

Dunder

December 7th, 2014 at 8:03 AM ^

Harbaugh had agreed in principle (I'm a doubter), then this would also explain the rumor, which claimed to be sourced, about Hackett negotiating with the SF front office. Giving even more fuel to the fire. Of course, were this actually happening it might be best for word to come out sooner, as opposed to later.

JH gets assistants on board and increases the chances of recruits delaying decisions in order to visit UM.

The, apparently organization wide, tension in SF lessons and they all shoot for one last run.

SF moves ahead with its change approach.

The tone and tenor of media frenzy quiets for both organizations.

There is a chance that if "it's happening", we may just get to know sooner, rather than later. That would be lovely.

 

 

 

k.o.k.Law

December 7th, 2014 at 10:06 AM ^

any more than Martin negotiated with West Virginia.

UM is not bound by any NFL rules on tampering with coaches under contract.

No one can be compelled to stay employed somewhere.

Any negotiation will be with the candidate only.

Ray

December 7th, 2014 at 11:29 AM ^

That the Niners do have incentive to keep JH from going to another NFL team so that particular rumor makes a little more sense to me. Working together, Hackett, the Niners and Harbaugh can all get what they want out of the deal, and can keep any pending agreement under wraps until the NFL season ends.

I realize he does have value to the Niners in a trade, but suspect that value is overwhelmed when compared to competing against him if he's really fired up and pissed off about being expelled from the organization.

vanbluegens

December 7th, 2014 at 8:15 AM ^

My son goes to school in Ann Arbor. He told me that McGary told him he was done on Saturday before it was announced on Sunday. They seem to have great inside information at his fraternity. He now tells me that a student who works in the athletic department has said tonight that Harbaugh is signed and it's a done deal. But it won't be announced until the new year.