OK: let me see if I can get this straight.  JLS started out decent and went down the tubes.  RR walked into a shitstorm and has improved every year.  JLS coached at MSU and RR at Michigan.  So, really, other than both having southern accents and coaching football, there isn't much to compare.  Right?

After three years, Smith was 16-19; if Michigan wins its bowl this year Rich will be 16-21.

What this shows is the benchmark for getting fired is to suck in your fourth year, when the first class of players who only know you as their head coach become seniors. Unless you're at Notre Dame, then they fire you after three years (and a 15-21 overall record -- exactly the same record Rodriguez has at this point -- Willingham was fired now, before the bowl) and subsequently self destruct when the next guy finishes coasting and the chaos they set in motion (via six years of not having a class of true seniors who have known only one head coach, instead of the usual three) takes hold.

So let's all relax and let the AD do his job -- if Michigan does not improve next year against quality Big Ten opponents, Rich will get fired. This should be obvious. No doubt it is to Rich. 

From a spartan perspective, there is a fundamental distinction to draw between the two. 

John L's players quit on him and their school.  He lost control of his team . . . and admitted as much.

I don't see any indication that RR's players have quit at all.  Quite the opposite, they appear to play for each other and out of pride for the school. 

That's hard to quantify with stats, but I still think it's observable fact.

I've been thinking more about Hal Mumme, less the NCAA violations.  He too was the father of an innovative offense.  I need to do more stat research to see how valid the comparison is to Mumme though.

I do like your article.

Here are some coaches who have had a 3 year record of 3 wins, 5 wins, and 7 wins, and what their 4th year record was like.

Ray Willsey, California, 1966-1969: 3-7...5-5...7-3-1...5-5

William F Barnes, UCLA, 1958-1961: 3-6-1...5-4-1...7-2-1...7-4

Ben Martin, Air Force, 1961-1964: 3-7...5-5...7-4...4-5-1

Gerry Faust, Akron, 1990-1993: 3-7-1...5-6...7-3-1...5-6

Larry Smith, Missouri, 1995-1998: 3-8...5-6...7-5...8-4

Ike Armstrong, Utah, 1927-1930: 3-3-1...5-0-2...7-0...8-0

Jim Carlen, West Virginia, 1966-1969: 3-5-2...5-4-1...7-3...10-1

Dallas Ward, Colorado, 1949-1952: 3-7...5-4-1...7-3...6-2-2

Average winning % in 4th year: 0.631, which translates to about 7.5 wins.  Clearly, this proves that Michigan will improve next year by at least half a win.

A major difference between JLS and RR seems to be their relationship with Michigan HS FB coaches.  One of the major strikes against JLS that Dantonio rectified was that he lost the support and relationship with high school coaches.  RR has done a very good job of building relationships with HS coaches in and out of state, even starting to make some headway in Glenville of all places.

provactive - is that some new acne medication?   /S

The fire Rodriguez/keep Rodriguez zealots have become a parody of themselves.  No one can accept the fact that there just isn't a clear path from here.

One thing is certain, Brandon is not sure he wants to keep Rodriguez.  Otherwise he would have thrown his full support behind him(as he has Beilein) to counteract some of the negative recruiting.  If Brandon were behind him, he'd have nothing to lose by making that fact public.

So why wait to decide?  Frankly I'm split on what Brandon is thinking

A. He wants to get rid of Rodriguez.  Waiting for the buyout to drop.  Waiting because he learned a lesson from Martin's botched coaching search, and the Les Miles fiasco.  Think what would have happened if Martin had just waited until after the bowl game.  Les Miles would have been your head coach for three years.  Mallett and Boren likely would have stayed.  '08 would have gone a little different.  A lot of things would have gone a little different.  The sad truth is that elite defensive players do not want to play for Rich Rodriguez, and I dont see that changing any time soon.   His Izzo-like in game coaching style is a little off-putting.  I've never really understood how screaming in your QB's face is going to settle him down. There have certainly been times when, correcting for youth, this still doesn't look like a very well coached team, but if you're going to fire Rodriguez, you dont do it until you have the next man lined up.

Or

B. He doesn't know if he wants to keep Rodriguez.  That is where I am at.  I always figured that he needed to win 8 games to keep his job, and a bowl win would be #8.  I never bought the argument that you should lower your expectations because the program has fallen so far in the last 3 years that your expectations are no longer reasonable.  My expectations seemed pretty reasonable 4 years ago.  What has changed?  On the other hand I love watching the spread offense.  That Illinois game will remain the craziest/most exciting/entertaining game of all time.  Denard and Rodriguez's offense between the 20's are like heroin.  Then they enter the red zone.  Why is it that mobile quarterbacks fair so poorly near the endzone?  You would think it would be the opposite.  Wasn't Cordell Stewart strictly a red zone QB for the Steelers?   I mean look at Philly--For all the talk about how dangerous the dog killer is, David Akers is probably leading the league in field goal attempts.  Kicker...that is another story. 

You've got to weigh player defections against the quality of recruit the next coach is going to bring in.  Would it hurt to lose Denard if RR goes?  Yes.  Would it hurt to watch quality defensive recruits choose MSU if RR stays?  Yes.  Could Tate or Devin step in and run a pretty great pro-style or hybrid offense?  Yes.  Would some players leave without RR?  Probably.  Will some players leave anyway?  Probably.  Would removing Rodriguez from the equation help erase the last 3 years from the minds of recruits and high school coaches?  I dont know. 

There is no clear path here, and you can compare RR to whomever you want, but it isn't going to make the decision any easier.

made this exact comparison. I lol'ed when he made the comment on my facebook wall.

I never thought I'd see the day where someone on this blog would do the same thing...much less in overanalyzed diary format.

I don't want to completely badmouth th OP, he's at least trying to create more talking points with this coaching scenario and uses fancy charts to compare stats. And it's honorable to introduce stats without seeming to have a preconceived notion of what the data represents.

However all this coach comparison stuff is really overdone. RR is a master at managing the offense, that much is true. His success on that side of the ball is tremendous. Yes, tremendous. What John L. Smith did on offense at MSU, while good, truly pales in comparison to what RR has done here at Michigan, given the circumstances. The only thing you can speculate on is the management of the defense...but I still think we're overblowing this whole "let's compare coach X to coach Y" thing, because every coach is different. And most importantly, just because two coaches seem similar and the final records also share patterns does not mean the coaches can really truly compare to one another. If that makes sense. There's a lot that goes into wins and losses. 

[EDIT - And as others have mentioned above, JLS teams regressed not only after is first years but often midseason. His teams flat out quit. I always remember at least one season where MSU lost to UM for their first L of the season, and flat out quit after that as if to say "What's the point"? In contrast, while UM has looked clearly overmatched at some points this season, I can't really think of a single instance where the team truly quit playing hard. And that's speaks volumes to the coaching staff and team chemistry. 

I am just going to wait for the comparison between RR's first 3 years at UM to Kirk Ferentz's first 3 years at Iowa.

I think this would be a more fair comparison and might show a more positive perspective on RR.

Further evidence for the need to raise point total to post Diaries.

Any time you have to post a multi-paragraph disclaimer like that it should be obvious what you're going to do. Much like when people say "no offense but," and then follow with something offensive, it doesn't change things.

And while I'm at it, this completely failed. Examining stats only tells a very small portion of the story. Where is the analysis of recruiting classes? Where is the analysis of year in college of starters on the team? Where is the analysis of potential impacts of youth on either side of the ball? (I could go on...)

Not to go all Godwin's law, but it's as if you threw down a picture of Hitler and a random guy with a mustache and said "Look, I don't mean anything bad by this, and I just happened to choose this comparison since it's someone everyone knows, but this guy is like Hitler becuase they both have mustaches."

They are going in opposite directions in terms of Win-Loss, which trumps any other stats.