Alternative title: You want a 1 year wonder named Mullen over this guy?

It has been interesting to read all over MGo msg boards, and hear on the podcasts the conventional wisdom that Les Miles peaked a few years ago and has begun to regress significantly.  Asking a coach to remain at 1-2 losses indefinitely is something only Bama fans can expect.  And as sports lovers know the difference between a 9-3 year and a 11-1 year can often be 3 -5 plays. 

So I thought I'd take a look at how Miles LSU teams offense + defense data stacked up the past 3 years (inclusive of 2014 which is far enough along to be useful) versus the first 7 years.  The data will probably surprise those who have bought into the mythology of Les Miles dropping off of late.

DATA:

Columns 3-5 are three measures of offense, of which I favor columns 4/5 for rigor (FEI began in 2007).  Same for columns 7-9 for defense, with emphasis on colums 8-9. 

Miles' teams are remarkably consistent.  All 6 offense/defensive measures show a variance of 0-3 in the past 3 years versus the first 7 years.  That's a rounding error in the big picture of 128 slots.

Now of course in the end  the W/L record matters.  But if you analyze a coach only on that you will miss the forest for the trees. 

• Miles 2012 team had 3 losses - by 8 to FL, by 4 to Bama, by 1 to Clemson.  They also had a handful of close wins.  LSU could have been anywhere from a 12-1 to 8-5 based on a few bounces.
• Miles 2013 team had 3 losses - by 3 to GA, by 3 to Ole Miss, by many to Bama.  They only had 1 "close" win.  LSU could have been a 12-1 team with 1 blowout loss to Bama very easily. 
• The 2014 team has an offense which would make OSU's and UM's look like graybeards - essentially every skill player went to the NFL post 2013.   Even with all thoses losses, if they played in the Big 10 (with weaker competition) their offensive FEI would be 3rd best in the confernce.  There has been 1 blowout loss to Auburn and 2 close losses to the #1 and #4 teams in the country.

------------

Miles has never had an elite QB other than Russell who he inherited from Saban.  He has not really had elite RBs either - usually that offense is a manball style with good OLs and aNFL type WR here and there (who lack QBs to get them the ball regularly).  And it's paired with a normally elite defense.  Miles built at LSU what Brady promised in Ann Arbor.

Now if you want to argue Les cannot repeat that record here (where the conference is worse and he will be LOLing at 8 of the 14 Big 10 teams - "wait the Big 10 has 8 Vanderbilts?"), or he relies on JUCOs too much (as does Mullen), or he can't speak well enough in public forums, or he has no friends in the UM AD - well that's another conversation to have. 

But the mythology of LSU regression of late is not born out by the data.  LSU has essentially had the same team the past 3 years as it had the previous 7 on average - it has just picked up an extra close loss or two here or there vs elite years. That's football.

And I can make an argument that Miles today carries a lot less risk than Miles of 2008-2009 when it looked like he carried Saban's players to success and then once Miles' recruits filtered in things fell off.  Of course 2010-2013 proved that not to be accurate but post 2009 you did not know that.

If the Harbaugh Hail Mary fails, it would be silly to not put Miles in the next tier of candidates. Miles has a better situation than Mullen at LSU but has a decade worth of great to elite seasons (vs 1!), runs a style of offense suited for the players recruited at UM (vs a run spread Mullen brings of which we are eliminating the last few players recruited for it this year), loves the damn school, and the "success due to JUCO" argument is the same for both.  And if interested UM's average recruiting ranking during the Miles era at LSU is #11; LSU's is #9. 

Hard to understand any logic calling for Mullen over Miles unless age trumps 15 other coaching measures Miles owns over Mullen.  And 5-7 years of a proven commodity is better than a 1 hit wonder who if a failure won't be here 5-7 years himself.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Technical notes - I am using 3 measures. 

(1) The NCAA's total offense + defense - which is a very simplistic measure that ranks teams on nothing other than total yards gained or allowed per game.  This benefits teams in bad conferences over teams in good conferences as any halfway decent unit will put up PED laden performance.  To that end if you focus solely on total defense, the Big 10 is in a golden era.  In year 2014, 4 of the top 10 defenses are from th Big 10 (Wiscy #1, UM #7).  And 8 of the conferences 14 teams have defenses ranked in the top 25 in the entire nation.  Of course that reflects on the horrid state of offenses in this era led by a bunch of bad QBs. Plus a lot of MAC games in OOC. So I don't love this measure that much.

(2) Football Outsiders FEI measure and (3) Football Outsiders S&P+ measure.  Both of these incorporate various strength of schedule adjustments, garbage time adjustments, blowout adjustments etc to give a more comprehensive view of a unit other than yards gained or yards given up.  Read more about them here and here.