CC: Refuting the "Les Miles has Regressed the Past Few Years" Mythology
Alternative title: You want a 1 year wonder named Mullen over this guy?
It has been interesting to read all over MGo msg boards, and hear on the podcasts the conventional wisdom that Les Miles peaked a few years ago and has begun to regress significantly. Asking a coach to remain at 1-2 losses indefinitely is something only Bama fans can expect. And as sports lovers know the difference between a 9-3 year and a 11-1 year can often be 3 -5 plays.
So I thought I'd take a look at how Miles LSU teams offense + defense data stacked up the past 3 years (inclusive of 2014 which is far enough along to be useful) versus the first 7 years. The data will probably surprise those who have bought into the mythology of Les Miles dropping off of late.
DATA:
Columns 3-5 are three measures of offense, of which I favor columns 4/5 for rigor (FEI began in 2007). Same for columns 7-9 for defense, with emphasis on colums 8-9.
| W/L | Tot Off | oFEI | oS&P+ | Tot Def | dFEI | dS&P+ | ||
| 2005 | 11-2 | 60 | * | 14 | 3 | * | 11 | |
| 2006 | 11-2 | 11 | * | 5 | 3 | * | 1 | |
| 2007 | 12-2 | 26 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2008 | 8-5 | 55 | 44 | 26 | 32 | 47 | 33 | |
| 2009 | 9-4 | 112 | 58 | 45 | 26 | 18 | 23 | |
| 2010 | 11-2 | 86 | 20 | 35 | 12 | 9 | 13 | |
| 2011 | 13-1 | 86 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| 2012 | 10-3 | 85 | 46 | 37 | 8 | 6 | 7 | |
| 2013 | 10-3 | 35 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 38 | 35 | |
| 2014 | 7-3 | 67 | 38 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 3 | |
| First 7 Years | 62.3 | 28.4 | 19.6 | 11.6 | 16.4 | 12.3 | ||
| Last 3 Years | 62.3 | 29.7 | 21.7 | 12.0 | 18.7 | 15.0 | ||
| Variance | 0.05 | 1.27 | 2.10 | 0.43 | 2.27 | 2.71 |
Miles' teams are remarkably consistent. All 6 offense/defensive measures show a variance of 0-3 in the past 3 years versus the first 7 years. That's a rounding error in the big picture of 128 slots.
Now of course in the end the W/L record matters. But if you analyze a coach only on that you will miss the forest for the trees.
- Miles 2012 team had 3 losses - by 8 to FL, by 4 to Bama, by 1 to Clemson. They also had a handful of close wins. LSU could have been anywhere from a 12-1 to 8-5 based on a few bounces.
- Miles 2013 team had 3 losses - by 3 to GA, by 3 to Ole Miss, by many to Bama. They only had 1 "close" win. LSU could have been a 12-1 team with 1 blowout loss to Bama very easily.
- The 2014 team has an offense which would make OSU's and UM's look like graybeards - essentially every skill player went to the NFL post 2013. Even with all thoses losses, if they played in the Big 10 (with weaker competition) their offensive FEI would be 3rd best in the confernce. There has been 1 blowout loss to Auburn and 2 close losses to the #1 and #4 teams in the country.
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Miles has never had an elite QB other than Russell who he inherited from Saban. He has not really had elite RBs either - usually that offense is a manball style with good OLs and aNFL type WR here and there (who lack QBs to get them the ball regularly). And it's paired with a normally elite defense. Miles built at LSU what Brady promised in Ann Arbor.
Now if you want to argue Les cannot repeat that record here (where the conference is worse and he will be LOLing at 8 of the 14 Big 10 teams - "wait the Big 10 has 8 Vanderbilts?"), or he relies on JUCOs too much (as does Mullen), or he can't speak well enough in public forums, or he has no friends in the UM AD - well that's another conversation to have.
But the mythology of LSU regression of late is not born out by the data. LSU has essentially had the same team the past 3 years as it had the previous 7 on average - it has just picked up an extra close loss or two here or there vs elite years. That's football.
And I can make an argument that Miles today carries a lot less risk than Miles of 2008-2009 when it looked like he carried Saban's players to success and then once Miles' recruits filtered in things fell off. Of course 2010-2013 proved that not to be accurate but post 2009 you did not know that.
If the Harbaugh Hail Mary fails, it would be silly to not put Miles in the next tier of candidates. Miles has a better situation than Mullen at LSU but has a decade worth of great to elite seasons (vs 1!), runs a style of offense suited for the players recruited at UM (vs a run spread Mullen brings of which we are eliminating the last few players recruited for it this year), loves the damn school, and the "success due to JUCO" argument is the same for both. And if interested UM's average recruiting ranking during the Miles era at LSU is #11; LSU's is #9.
Hard to understand any logic calling for Mullen over Miles unless age trumps 15 other coaching measures Miles owns over Mullen. And 5-7 years of a proven commodity is better than a 1 hit wonder who if a failure won't be here 5-7 years himself.
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Technical notes - I am using 3 measures.
(1) The NCAA's total offense + defense - which is a very simplistic measure that ranks teams on nothing other than total yards gained or allowed per game. This benefits teams in bad conferences over teams in good conferences as any halfway decent unit will put up PED laden performance. To that end if you focus solely on total defense, the Big 10 is in a golden era. In year 2014, 4 of the top 10 defenses are from th Big 10 (Wiscy #1, UM #7). And 8 of the conferences 14 teams have defenses ranked in the top 25 in the entire nation. Of course that reflects on the horrid state of offenses in this era led by a bunch of bad QBs. Plus a lot of MAC games in OOC. So I don't love this measure that much.
(2) Football Outsiders FEI measure and (3) Football Outsiders S&P+ measure. Both of these incorporate various strength of schedule adjustments, garbage time adjustments, blowout adjustments etc to give a more comprehensive view of a unit other than yards gained or yards given up. Read more about them here and here.
November 13th, 2014 at 8:19 AM ^
No brainer. This guy should have been here when Carr stepped aside.
November 13th, 2014 at 5:49 PM ^
He would've had all the players that fit his manball style of coaching, including a sophomore Ryan Mallett. Unfortunately Carr's personal issues with Les were more important than hiring the right guy, according to Martin.
November 15th, 2014 at 12:54 PM ^
According to Martin? I don't recall him speaking out on this matter.
Carr definitely didn't like Miles, but Martin was the boss - it was ultimately his call.
November 23rd, 2014 at 7:21 AM ^
November 17th, 2014 at 10:20 AM ^
This is absolutely right and so frustrating. This program would be in a completely different place today had this been handled properly. It drives me a little nuts just thinking about it.
November 13th, 2014 at 8:31 AM ^
honest question here, I see a lot of people on the boards have a strong dislike for Les and want no part of him coming back to Michigan because of his antics. My question is why and what are those antics? I know he is a bit quirky but sometimes I enjoy his cander or making light of media situations. I really don't think he is going to come back here and disgrace his alma mater. He's not my one of my top 3 choices or anything like that, but I'm taking him over guys like Bohl, Hudspeth, etc any day, even if we get him for just 7 yrs or so.
November 13th, 2014 at 9:33 AM ^
Apparently there was TMZ level stuff going on between Miles and Moeller so Carr would have none of Miles at UM.
November 13th, 2014 at 9:35 AM ^
Thanks Alum, I'll have to look some of that up on the interwebs.
November 13th, 2014 at 1:00 PM ^
I'm not saying it never happened or do I want it rehashed TMZ-style, but I've never seen anything other than, "supposedly x,y,&z happened". I even read on here recently that Mo was offered "help" but refused it...again refraining to subscribe validity one way or the other.
I just wonder if "the incident" is so often repeated by people who heard it that it is more urban legend than fact.
November 14th, 2014 at 12:58 PM ^
It has not been substantiated, and in fact, insiders categorically dismiss it.
It's a nasty allegation to make and disturbing that it's accepted as fact by many here.
November 15th, 2014 at 10:47 AM ^
November 15th, 2014 at 12:25 PM ^
The "TMZ" rumor about things that allegedly happened 20 years ago? No, it is not "commonly understood" at all. It appears to be a baseless rumor that has gained traction on the internet.
November 13th, 2014 at 4:43 PM ^
is rumored to be very shady at OSU and LSU. If Michigan wants a clean coach, Les Miles isn't the candidate. Look at what happened at OSU when he was the coach.
November 14th, 2014 at 12:34 AM ^
http://deadspin.com/even-the-ncaa-says-sis-ok-state-story-was-pointless-hor-1649035696
He should have been the coach in 2007 and we wouldn't be in this mess right now. We'll never know the full story, but when Lloyd reached out to RR, it probably had something to do with him not wanting Miles here.
BTW-Thank you alum96, you have done an amazing job breaking down all the CC.
November 13th, 2014 at 9:10 AM ^
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November 13th, 2014 at 9:44 AM ^
I did a piece a few weeks ago on coaching tenure and there are not a lot of coaches over 10 years anymore with Bowden and Paterona leaving the profession. Basically you have a few guys like Ferentz, Stoops, and Beamer at the Power 5 conferences. To put in perspective the turnover Dantonio is now the 2nd most tenured coach in the conference with 8 years.
I have no idea on Miles. He is 61 with no apparent health issues that are obvious and acts as if he is 41. If you get 5-6 years out of him and they are quality years, and he seems to produce a lot more candidates out of a coaching tree than Carr did - so you hope there is an obvious David Shaw candidate post Miles. You also get Chavis as DC I assume as he is 58 and sees like a career assistant and I am assuming he would follow Miles.
For reference - some other old dudes - Snyder @KSU is 119 (looks great), O'Leary at UCF is 67, Beamer is 67, Spurrier is 69, Cutcliffe at Duke is 60, Saban is 62, Pinkel is 61, Dantonio, Ferentz and Briles are 58. Mattison is 64.
I think this thing is a multi year turnaround for any coach so year 1 is going to be a bit in the weeds as we struggle to figure out the QB situation and I dont see a major step up on the D with key losses at DE and MLB. DTs are better and hopefully Peppers secures the 2nd corner across from Lewis, the 2nd S is still a black hole. So defense flat, and offense who the hell knows. So I am looking at years 2-3 and who can figure this crap out in the shortest amount of time as we are headed to the ND era where they were irrelevent for the better part of 15 years. If Miles can steady the ship and make us look feasible by year 2 and then put in 3 years of Big 10 title competitiveness after that I'd be happy.
November 13th, 2014 at 9:29 AM ^
I would put Miles right behind Jimmy H, because he does have a long track record (which hasn't really declined as you point out) and like the previous poster, I enjoy his personality. His pressers would be much more interesting than Hokes, that's for sure.
November 13th, 2014 at 9:30 AM ^
The world would be a better place.
November 13th, 2014 at 9:33 AM ^
It is remarkable to me that we messed up the coaching transition so badly in 2007. Les Miles should've been here.
If we strike out on the Harbaughs and Bob Stoops (not even sure if that's viable, really) then I wouldn't be upset with having Les here. My major concern with him is from a recruiting perspective. Currently he owns the state of Louisiana, rich with talent. What will he do up here with less talent and more competition for that talent?
November 13th, 2014 at 9:55 AM ^
He does not own LA - teams like Auburn and Alabama and Texas make incursions there all the time. Hell we were recruiting Fournette who was probably the best LA offensive recruit in a decade.
Now to your comment about recruiting - Brady Hoke with a mediocre Mountain West and MAC resume lugged around the UM brand and got top 10-15 classes yearly. He had no brand himself - he was using UM. No HS kids knew who he was. Now contrast to Les Miles who every HS kid will know, and who will walk into their homes with a NC ring on his finger with the same passion for the school Brady has. You really think we are going to fall off the map recruiting with Les Miles? Miles has more cache then all but 6-7 coaches in the country. And that's without the Michigan brand.
Now let me throw my own caveat out there that (a) I think a 3 star from the south is equivalent to a 4 star in the Midwest so a "top 15 class" full of Midwest recruits is a bit of a hoax to me and (b) to offset point a he will be competing in an awful conference where at this point he will have 2 real games a year - MSU and OSU - in conference except for years we have crossovers with Wiscy and Nebraska. So until PSU wakes up we at most have 2-3 real challenges for him out of 8 games every year in conf, plus the 1 glamour non conf game.
This is a guy who has been dealing with Bama, Florida, Auburn, Georgia for a decade.
Last point - dude has those connections in the south now - which if you want to make UM competitive nationally you need. He has access to southern HSs now. Something Urban brings to OSU.
November 13th, 2014 at 9:34 AM ^
November 13th, 2014 at 9:43 AM ^
1) Subjective Concern: The Moeller incident - no integrity, undercut a successful team's coach; significantly worse than Harbaugh throwing M academics under the bus. Integrity is higher to me as a value than an extra two wins/year
2) Objective Concern: How do academics at Michigan and LSU compare? How much of LSU's recruiting success is Les Miles vs LSU being in a hotbed of talent where football is all there is for some of these student-athletes? I don't know where or how to find the stats for this question but it seems to be an important factor in any transition for coaching at Michigan and there seems to be a significant difference in cultures comparing LSU and M.
November 13th, 2014 at 9:53 AM ^
(Belushi style) for a chance at Bo's former job. My guess is he was never under any real consideration and never will be. The "TMZ" thing (I like that description... makes me feel not-so-sleazy), whatever went on at Okie St.(bearing in mind Les himself has said some things about that era that sound a little like admisssions), and the taint of everything we complain about in the SEC being on full display at LSU is just too much.
November 13th, 2014 at 12:03 PM ^
If the incident rumored regarding Moeller is true, I would need to know (were it up to me) if there was sufficient remorse and / or contrition about it. If so, then I would give him a chance to fix this mess. I'd probably also give Mo a vote.
November 13th, 2014 at 12:29 PM ^
but I'm guessing the last thing the new prez is gonna put up with is deciding who should run the football program based on the truth and meaning of 20 year old misdeeds. It's gonna sound like the morning after a drunken frat party including walks-of-shame and bloody noses. Include the fact that all the "boys" are millionaires with massive egos and I don't think there will be much patience.
November 28th, 2014 at 4:30 PM ^
The other party allegedly involved in the phantom incident is almost 20 years older than Les, and Les is still with his wife, who was a basketball coach at M who he was with at the time of the fairy-tale incident. Do the math...it never happened.
November 13th, 2014 at 9:44 AM ^
What I have always found slightly interesting is his LSU contract -
http://media.ledger-enquirer.com/static/SEC-Coaching-Contracts/LSU/LSU-…
That's the extension he signed in 2011 and in the amendment there was no change to the section that specifically mentions his penalty to take the Michigan job. Essentially he cannot seek or accept employment at Michigan. Michigan is the only school mentioned and the penalty is $1.25 million.
November 13th, 2014 at 10:02 AM ^
That is peanuts really. UM paid $2.5M of RR's $4M buyout. The dude from Colorado State some people are throwing out there has a $7M buyout.
I don't think Miles really fits with Shlissel's grand vision (or ANY SEC coach except Florida which seems to be a good academic institution) but the main point of the piece is refuting the fact Miles is going downhill and some rapid rate. His recent work at LSU should not be seen as a negative as has been indicated by many comments I have seen lately. There migh be other factors specific to him that do work against him however. But that buyout would not be a reason not to pursue him if that is what the administration wants. We're paying Borges nearly $1M a year to sit on his behind this year.
November 13th, 2014 at 11:18 AM ^
It is a relatively small amount, it's just the way it's worded in the contract and the fact that Michigan is the only school mentioned that I find interesting. I think if they were really worried about it, then the amount would have been much higher.
November 13th, 2014 at 9:58 AM ^
He's a good coach, he can develop players, he knows and loves the school and the transition costs would be low.
November 13th, 2014 at 10:04 AM ^
Stoops or Miles? Say both were interested. To me that is a tough question. They have comparable levels of sustained success at top football schools in power conferences. One 1 NC each. Stoops is younger (by 7 years) for what that's worth. But Miles has the Michigan connection and history.
Honestly tough question for me. The Harbaughs aside these are my top two guys. Stoops might be more exciting but, to me, at a gut level I feel he'd be a riskier pick. Les Miles just feels like the better choice. Miles would toy with the coaches in the big ten and would treat Urban Meyer like school boy. Plus I think his quirky personality is a great fit for Michigan.
The only thing I haven't really considered is who would have more success recruiting? Would Miles sell Michigan tradition more authentically? Does Stoops sell his track record of NFL development and cocksure personality? Perhaps it's a wash - it seems to me that the block M often sells itself. It's safe to say each would recruit as well or likely better than Hoke - and Hoke's recruiting is arguably his best accomplishment in his time here.
Who ya got? Thoughts?
November 13th, 2014 at 1:24 PM ^
For a school who supposedly was turned down by Schiano and Pat Fitzgerald I don't think we are in a position to turn down an overture from either Bob Stoops or Les Miles. All 3 of our rivals now have what I consider to be top 15 coaches. Those 2 are top 15 coaches - either would be fine. As would Patterson as would Graham. Arguing if the 7th best or 11th best coach in the country would fit better is a first world problem.
November 13th, 2014 at 10:14 AM ^
I have been saying for weeks that Miles should be the No. 2 choice for this program and almost everyone says MUllen is No. 2 and Miles is a last resort. Heck how can anyone deny that Miles is the second best coach in the SEC which would make him probably No. 1 or 2 in the B1G. If we don't get harbaugh, Miles should be target No. 2. Mullen is having a fgreat year, but so is his QB. That seems very directly related to Mullen's success. If MSU gets thumped by Bama this week, that will die down in a hurry......I stil think Todd Graham would be a great Tier Two choice.
November 13th, 2014 at 11:33 AM ^
Les Miles if not Jim Harbaugh. And then let the ass kicking begin.
November 13th, 2014 at 11:34 AM ^
Actually, the data seems to point to a fall off after the first three seasons (after Saban's uber-classes passed through) and that 2011 was an abberation. From 2008 to 2013, 2011 is the only year where we can say he actually had a team that was really good on both sides of the ball. Every other year it was a good-to-great defense carrying an average offense (with 2013 flipping that script). I wonder what his overall FEI and S&P would look like for those years.
With regards to some of your other points:
1) You talk about him not really having an elite QB or RB in his time there (other than what Saban left him) as if it is just an unfortunate circumstance. That he has had a ton of trouble identifying and developing capable QBs is a huge knock against him, especially considering the unique set of needs this team will have next year. Is Les Miles going to get any quarterback or running back on this roster to the level needed to compete against the top of this conference?
2) And the fact that he may be in the best situation for recruiting high school talent in the nation is a very relevant here. He and Mullen may rely too much on JUCOs but only one of them has any sort of excuse for actually having to rely on JUCOs. And when you compare where Miles teams end up performance wise versus the talent he can tap in to easily, it is easy to come to the conclusion that he underperforms relative to talent.
3) You state that he could have had stellar records in 2012 and 2013, but in your examples his record pretty much ended up right at the median of the range. You are basically just saying that if Miles had gotten really lucky the last two seasons, he would have had a great record (which assumes incorrectly that coaches who lose close games are suffering from bad luck). But to that end, the same could be said about Hoke, and if he had had a few lucky bounces in a couple games, you wouldn't even be posting this diary.
4) We may judge Hoke quite a bit by his record against the middling crap that is the B1G, but consistent 10-3 seasons aren't that great if they are combined with a losing record to OSU, MSU and in bowls.
Miles ultimately isn't a bad choice. But Mullen has actually got his teams to perform above their talent level, and he has a pretty good knack for QBs which will be the biggest problem facing the next coach. So I still vote for Mullen between the two.
November 14th, 2014 at 9:32 AM ^
November 13th, 2014 at 12:29 PM ^
...is disingenuous, at best; most likely ignorant.
Mullen is undefeated and #1...AT MISSISSIPPI STATE!
Let's go back throught the history of Stark-Vegas ball, shall we?
- Number of undefeated seasons before Mullen = ONE! (and that was in 19-fucking-40)
- Number of undefeateed and untied seasons = ummm, z-e-r-o, zip, zilch, nunca, goose egg, donut hole.
- Top AP poll finish: #9, also in 1940
- Number of Top 20 AP finishes from 1970 - 2008 = 4 (yes, that's a four)
- Highest Miss. State has EVER been ranked AT ANY POINT = #7, in 1981 (yep, that's 33 years ago)
- Last five Miss. State recruiting classes (Rivals), from most recent: #37, 26, 30, 44, and 38. (LSU's last five: 2, 6, 18, 6, and 6)
- Average Rivals star rating for those years: 2.79, 3.1, 3.04, 3.05, and 2.92. (LSU: 3.74, 3.73, 3.36, 3.64, and 3.59)
Miles is a fine coach, no doubt, but please dispense with the "overrated," and/or "one-hit wonder" talk. If Mullen is a "one-hit wonder" b/c this is the only time he's had a #1 team, then Miles is a "two-hit wonder." (I don't believe that, but that's the logic you're using.)
A more fair comparison would be Mullen with Miles at Oklahoma State. Miles was 28-21 at Okie State (who has since blown up under Mike "I'm 40" Gundy after Miles left). Miles highest ranked Cowboy squad was #14 and he was 1-2 in bowl games.
Mullen compares favorably to Miles in a pre-big time program analysis. Not competitively, but favorably.
Since I have argued this, naturally Miss. State will get demolished in Tuscaloosa this Saturday.
November 13th, 2014 at 1:18 PM ^
Not only is calling him a 1 year wonder not ignorant, if I opened the dictionary to 1 year wonder, Dan Mullen should be staring back. He is in a hot bed of talent and is supposedly an "offensive guru but in half a decade could never find a QB? If Mullen was the genius behind Urban's offense he'd have done what Mike Leach did at Texas Tech and have a LOL defense (which he did for half a decade) but be involved in a lot of shootouts with Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, and the crossovers in SEC East. He should have been losing to those teams 45-35 or something but have a Qb he developed leading the charge.
Urban plucked an injured JT Barrett out of Texas within 18 months of arriving on campus. Where was Mullen's JT Barrett for half a decade? He lives in a region with QBs aplenty supposedly and couldnt develop 1 in all those years? Graham took a 2 star guy with 1 offer (Nevada) and made him a top 5 Pac 10 QB. RichRod has a guy iin the same class as JT Barrett starting as a RS Frosh and starring. Arizona and Arizona State are not hotbeds of football recruitment but these guys found guys or inherited them and developed them quick. Mike Leach did the same.
Tell me about Mullen's great wins in half a decade? Where were any major upsets? Elite coaches find a way by year 4 - no you dont need to beat 3 powers in 1 year but you should upset someone, anyone by that point if you are at an upstart school. All he has to his name until this year is beating a few Ole Miss teams, an 8-5 Florida and U of M in a bowl. A team that had thrown in the towel. Those are probably his 4 best wins in 5 years.
So yes he is a 1 year wonder and it has nothing to do with being #1 overall. If he was 9-3 with a win over say Auburn that would have been fine and significant progress. But still labeled him as a 1 year wonder because all he had for 5 years was 95% empty victories over tomato cans and an occasional rival game win over Ole Miss.
Dude might turn out to be the next Nick Saban but his track record to this point scares me. A year ago at this point they were 4-6 with victories over Alcorn State, Troy, Bowling Green, and a 2-10 Kentucky squad. He went on to beat Arkansas and then his 3rd most valuable victory in 5 years, beating 8-5 Ole Miss. He went 2 years (2011-2012) - his 3rd and 4th years as a coach without beating anything but a tomato can or sub .500 conf team. Almost every coach I did a CC on had a program changing victory in year 3 or 4 at latest. He should have pulled an upset at some point in 5 years other than beating his rival in the Egg Bowl.
List of wins year by year
- 2009: Jackson State, (2-10) Vanderbilt, Middle Tenn State, (7-6) Kentucky, (9-4) #20 Miss State.
- 2010: Memphis, (6-7) Georgia, Alcorn State, Houston, (8-5) Florida, UAB, Kentucky, (4-8) Ole Miss, Michigan
- 2011: Memphis, LA Tech, UAB, Kentucky, Tennessee-Martin, (2-10) Ole Miss
- 2012: Jackson State (3-9) Auburn, Troy, South Alabama, Kentucky, (5-7) Tennessee, Middle Tennessee, (4-8) Arkansas
- 2013: Alcorn State, Troy, Bowling Green, Kentucky, (3-9) Arkansas, (8-5) Ole Miss, (10-4) Rice
List of losses year by year
- 2009: Auburn, LSU, Georgia Tech, Houston, Florida, Alabama, Arkansas
- 2010: Auburn, LSU, Alabama, Arkansas
- 2011: Auburn, LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas
- 2012: Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss, Northwestern
- 2013: Oklahoma State, Auburn, LSU, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama
November 13th, 2014 at 1:32 PM ^
...did none of what Mullen has while at Okie State. Miles was a zero-hit wonder at the time.
But now he can coach better? Don't think so.
Yes, there's a lot of talent near Miss. State, but have you ever been to Starkville? And have you been to The Grove at Ole Miss? I have, and there's a reason that all that talent goes to Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Florida, and even Ole Miss and doesn't go to Starkville.
Bottom line is that Mullen has overachieved with his talent, while Miles has underachieved with his. Surprised you haven't said "MIchigan Man" yet.
November 13th, 2014 at 2:01 PM ^
Was OKState even on the map before Miles and Gundy came along? I'm sure other than Sanders, that place was a dead zone for football given the success of Oklahoma, Texas and Nebraska.
November 13th, 2014 at 2:21 PM ^
After Barry left, Ok State had 1 winning record in the 12 years before Miles + 1st year of Miles. Excluding the 1 winning year (1997) they never won more than 3 games in the conference or 5 games overall in that span. Hey it almost sounds like Miss State....
So I guess in that context - 3 winning seasons in a row for a program that had only 1 in 12 years, I can now see why it caught LSU's attention.
November 13th, 2014 at 2:12 PM ^
Nice pot shot at the end considering I've been advocating Patterson or Graham if not Harbaugh for 4-5 weeks. And ironic considering my signature which doesnt even have Miles listed.
I'm not even advocating Miles as choice #2. I am hearing podcasts where he is either N/A or "#7" behind Bob fucking Stitt. #Boliviad And the mob has taken as fact how he is falling hard of late. So just pointing out data otherwise.
I am surprised LSU hired Miles out of OK State based on that record. He was 28-21 in 4 years. Yet you are waving Mullen's record around in year 6. Miles never had a chance for year 5 or 6 at OK State so you or I will never know what was in store for him next there.
Sometimes it goes beyond the record - Dantonio was 18-17 at Cincinnati. I dont know if its the same AD who hired both Saban and Miles but if so that guy should be the head of UM's search party if not Harbaugh.
November 13th, 2014 at 4:34 PM ^
November 13th, 2014 at 5:20 PM ^
Please tell me you did not just call Rich Rod a ''hot coach with not much track record''.
And how can you possibly say Mullen a ''safe hire that will win 7-9 games''? The dude has taken the Indiana of the SEC to #1 in the nation. That is absurd logic.
November 13th, 2014 at 5:45 PM ^
November 13th, 2014 at 6:14 PM ^
Until this year the SEC was not a deep league? Remember that Les Miles coaches in the same division. How many times has he reached the SEC championship in the last 10 years?
In 2013 four of the seven teams in the SEC west finished in the top 20.
In 2012 three of the seven teams in the SEC west finished in the top 15.
In 2011 three teams of the six teams in the SEC west finished in the top 5(!).
In 2010, five(!) of the six teams in the SEC west finished in the top 15.
November 13th, 2014 at 8:39 PM ^
I think RR is a pretty darn good coach who did not work out here. He is not top 15ih but in that range of 16 to 25 nationally. That should have been good enough wth the talent pipeline we had here to have years of Lloyd Carr (ex NC year) type seasons, but for a number of reasons it never worked out. He was successful pre and post UM - not Saban/Meyer successful but a solid level of success.
With that said I think he did much more than Mullen did albeit in a more fraudulent conference. The Big East of 10 years ago was essentially the Big 10 of today. You have to take everything with a grain of salt in these conferences. But if I recall WVA did pretty well in bowls against decent competition with RR so I dont think it was all Big East.
And the SEC was deep prior to this year - Miss State and Ole Miss are up but 3-7 years ago Arkansas was better 3-6 years ago, Florida was way better, and South Carolina was doing well with Spurrier until this year. Georgia about the same. A&M also has helped the past few years. (Missouri had a good year last year but I think they are flukey)
People will mock me but I truly think Arkansas - with 0 wins in the SEC West could win the Big 10 or finish 2nd. They are built no different than Wisconsin or Nebraska and took Miss State AND Bama to last possesion and could have won both those games. Difficult to say that about any team in the Big 10 except maybe OSU. Arkansas would roll teams like UM, PSU, Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, etc.
November 14th, 2014 at 6:54 PM ^
...he was the hot coach with no history of sustained success.
November 14th, 2014 at 6:57 PM ^
Sharik hates MilesHow do you conclude that from this:
Miles is a fine coach, no doubt
November 13th, 2014 at 6:05 PM ^
I don't want Les Miles. If he ends up at Michigan, I will support him as I do even with hires I don't agree with, but I want a contemporary coach. Just like Nuss, the style Miles coaches only works consistently if you have better personnel then the other guy.
I want a 21st century offense in Ann Arbor.
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