Inspired by this Bill Connelly post at sbnation about Nebraska, I wanted to look at the upcoming coaching change in terms of developing talent, and exceeding or underperforming expectations. In the article Bill asserts that comparing performance ranking to recruiting ranking is a reasonable way of determing performance.

So I took that theory and applied it to Michigan's past coaches, some of our leading candidates, and our competition to see what I could see. I tried to use the most recent tenure as possible, to show comparisons relative to each other. One thing that stood out early was that almost every coach underperformed expectations, but with most of these coaches recruiting at top-10 level, it would be hard not to. Without further ado, here's what I found.

Michigan Men

Let's start at the very beginning, it's a very good place to start.

coach	school	years	recruiting avg	f+ avg	+/-	career recruiting average	career f+ average	career +/
Hoke	Michigan	2011	26	9	17
Hoke		2012	6	20	-14
Hoke		2013	4	37	-33
Hoke		2014	20	58	-38	14	31	-17

Rodriguez	Michigan	2008	11	73	-62
Rodriguez		2009	12	58	-46
Rodriguez		2010	17	47	-30	13.33333	59.33333	-46

Carr	Michigan	2004	6
Carr		2005	5	12	-7
Carr		2006	9	6	3
Carr		2007	8	28	-20	7.333333	15.33333	-8

Not much we don't already know. Carr started tailing off, Rodriguez improved from a terrible start, and Hoke has fallen off after an outlier of a start. One interesting way to view this would be year-by-year, since obviously Carr's last year preceeds Rodriguez's first, etc.  Michigan's recruiting has been very good, except for Hoke's first class, which still almost ended up top-25. Performance has been great (but not exceptional) to, well, I don't need to remind you how bad 2008 was (worst of any analyzed here).

The Contenders

coach	school	years	recruiting avg	f+ avg	+/-	career recruiting average	career f+ average	career +/
Harbaugh	Stanford	2007	44	66	-22
Harbaugh		2008	45	58	-13
Harbaugh		2009	18	31	-13
Harbaugh		2010	24	6	18	32.75	40.25	-7.5
Mullen	Miss St	2011	34	49	-15
Mullen		2012	22	62	-40
Mullen		2013	25	33	-8
Mullen		2014	35	5	30	29	37.25	-8.25
Patterson	TCU	2011	30	18	12
Patterson		2012	29	31	-2
Patterson		2013	35	44	-9
Patterson		2014	42	4	38	34	24.25	9.75
Miles	LSU	2011	8	2	6
Miles		2012	14	10	4
Miles		2013	6	17	-11
Miles		2014	2	14	-12	7.5	10.75	-3.25
Pelini	Nebraska	2011	16	28	-12
Pelini		2012	30	19	11
Pelini		2013	22	39	-17
Pelini		2014	36	25	11	26	27.75	-1.75

Yep, Stanford went from underperforming to outperforming expectations, even as recruiting improved. Performance went from average to excellent, and recruiting went from above average to good. That's pretty good performance in both categories, and will be hard to beat for the candidates we've selected.

At this point, I couldn't decide whether to order by who's best or who's most likely to accept if offered. Since we're all dreaming at this poit, I decided to go with who's best.

Dan Mullen started off with above-average recruiting, and improved some, but not much of the last four years. But the performance improvement is amazing. His team went from average to elite in two years. How much regression would we expect next year? Well, their four year average is about 37, offset against an upward overall scoring trend.

Gary Patterson is pretty much the poster child for over-achieving. Recruiting in the mid-30's, with teams outperforming by almost 10 spots. It's easy to see why people are trippig over themselves to see what he'd do with a top-10 recruiting clss. Recruiting hasn't gotten much better, but he's been there for so long, and competing against Texas and everyone else for recruits, it's tough to imagine them rising much higher than they are. Performance had been sliding backwards until this year, but still inline with expectations overall.

Next up, somewhat surprisingly is Bo Pelini. I was somewhat surprised that Nebraska fired him, especially after winning their last game, but the writing has been on the wall since the open-mike comments last year. Pelini has performed about inline with expectations or better, which was a little surprising. I didn't realize how far down Nebraska was in the recruiting rankings, which does explain their performance a bit. Recruiting in the mid-20s, performance in the mid-20s, trending improvement. We could certainly do worse.

The Hat. Looks like the consensus on him is pretty accurate. Great recruiter, good on the field, trending downward. Now, part of that is due to their great class this year, which would indicate a potential bounce-back coming, but that's what the numbers say now. Still only -3 relative to expectations, which seems pretty good.

The Competition

coach	school	years	recruiting avg	f+ avg	+/-	career recruiting average	career f+ average	career +/
B Kelly	ND	2011	9	13	-4
B Kelly		2012	18	7	11
B Kelly		2013	5	26	-21
B Kelly		2014	11	34	-23	10.75	20	-9.25
Meyer	OSU	2012	5	14	-9
Meyer		2013	2	9	-7
Meyer		2014	3	3	0	3.333333	8.666667	-5.33333
Saban	Alabama	2011	1	1	0
Saban		2012	1	1	0
Saban		2013	1	2	-1
Saban		2014	1	1	0	1	1.25	-0.25
Muschamp	Florida	2011	12	34	-22
Muschamp		2012	4	4	0
Muschamp		2013	3	48	-45
Muschamp		2014	9	39	-30	7	31.25	-24.25
Dantonio	State	2011	32	11	21
Dantonio		2012	33	15	18
Dantonio		2013	37	6	31
Dantonio		2014	25	15	10	31.75	11.75	20

Obviously Muschamp isn't competition any more, but I included him to compare with Hoke. Florida had better recruits, but has been unable to do much with them, 2012 excepted. As a result, he comes in with a score between Hoke and Rodriguez, and, not surprisingly looking for a new job.

Urban Meyer is improving a loaded OSU team, from underperforming to meeting expectations in just three years. They've had top-5 recruiting classes, and the performance is starting to match. No reason to expect otherwise next year, unless the coordinators get poached (please, everyone poach their coordinators).

Nick Saban, well, what is there to say? Number one recruiting classes all four years, number one performance all four years. Technically that's five years of recruiting, since so many recruits don't make it to campus, but those are the numbers I have. Newsflash: Alabama is good, has been good, and probably will be good.

Brian Kelly at ND was a bit of a surprise. I didn't realize how far down their performance was. Next year could be make-or-break for him, and if their performance continues to slide, I'm not sure where he would wind up next. I was actually considering him as a possible candidate, but after looking at the numbers, I'm not convinced. We know he can recruit, but seems to be having trouble putting it on the field

Finally, Mark Dantonio. Tip of the hat to you, you crazy nutball. Recruiting in the mid-30s, top 15 performances. That's pretty clear evidence of outperforming expectations.

Conclusion

So after looking at year-to-year performance, I charted the overall relative over/underperformance of each coach. Here's the result.

So, what does all this tell us? Well, it's easier to outperform expectations when you're lower in the recruiting rankings. If you have a top-10 class, there's not much room to outperform. It's really about meeting expectations at that point. Harbaugh is the only coach I profiled with consistent improvement, but as far as our best available candidates, can you believe it's Dantonio, Patterson, and Pelini?