If you are just now getting into the CC sweepstakes and are interested in candidates the board has spoken of often please see writeups over the past 8 weeks of Mullen 2.0 Mullen 1.0, Graham, Patterson, Mark Stoops, Harbaugh, Butch Jones Gary Anderson - and retrospective analysis of how Strong & Franklin would have stacked up as candidates.

This will be my last CC analysis as we've exhausted all possibilities I can think of that are reasonable.  In the past few days some names have surfaced as potential superficial candidates - Jim Mora, Art Briles, Sean Peyton, Bill Belichick, Ghandi, and Kyle Whittingham.  

I won't spend much time on Mora and Briles - a cursory look at their histories show what you would expect.   Briles is a guy who has never left the state of Texas, is well paid, had offense galore and then in the past 2 years found religion on defense.  UM with Briles would be fun, we'd look a lot like OSU but with a different offense - zilly offensive stats with a decent but not great defense.   Mora only has 3 years of data at UCLA but reminds me of a Mark Richt/Lloyd Carr type - he will get you to a respectful level but winning the big one is always a question, and annually loses a WTF game.  He'll always be a threat to run to the NFL.  I'd see a lot of 9-3 years with Mora which from current status of the program is great, but is he a guy who'd lead the team to the last step... conference championships?  Open question. Also he was basically handed the Texas job last year and refused.

This brings us to a candidate I was interested in much earlier this year but based on his rejection of Tennessee in 2010, being in the state he played college ball in (BYU), his 20 (!) years at Utah, and being a Mormon in Utah thought there was little chance he'd move.  Maybe there is still little chance but we are hearing his name at the edge of some Sam Webb / Football Outsiders reporting (plus some chatter he met with Nebraska) so he may actually be in play and it's worth taking a closer look at what a Kyle Whittingham reign would bring. 

Coaching candidate.... Kyle Whittingham, age: 55

Summary:  Kyle Whittingham has been the HC at the University of Utah since 2005, taking over after a whopping success left by Urban Meyer in his 2 years there.  Prior to 2005, Whittingham had spent another decade at Utah as the DC and DL coach.  So he bring a defensive focus.  He'd also immediatey be the most ruggedly handsome coach in the Big 10.  Gary Andersen - the current Wisconsin coach - was Whittingham's DC for a few years.  Whittingham's background reminds me very much of Gary Patterson - a DC who was elevated to HC and has taken the program through a progression from lower level conference into major conference.

I will use the Gary Patterson comparable a lot because Patterson would be my personal choice for CC 1B behind Jim Harbaugh.   I think Patterson is the better coach.  But 12 months ago no one on MGo would want Gary Patterson due to recency bias (more on that later).  And now a year later Patterson is not moving from all accounts.  So we have to look at reasonable candidates - is Whittingham one?  I don't know - this could be a negotiating ploy.  His contract comes up in 2016 and what better way to get a raise than negotiate with Nebraska and Michigan?

Another parallel with Patterson is Utah's move to the Pac 12 which happened a year prior to TCU moving to the Big 12.   The first year of the transition was pretty good (8-5) but the 2nd and 3rd years were struggles - this is no surprise.  It is one thing to play a Power 5 conference team 1-2x a year like a Boise State does.  It is another to go in with Mountain West talent and compete every week.  Think of Brady Hoke's San Diego State team trying to compete with UCLA, USC, Oregon, Stanford, ASU, et al on a weekly basis.  It takes time to cycle up your program with a higher caliber of player.  Utah and TCU are getting there now.

The open question with Patterson 4 months ago was (after 2 years of similar struggles) could he do it in a Power 5 conference?  He maintained a very good defense even in the Big 12 but the offfense sucked.  Behind the back of a complete conversion of his offense in 1 offseason from run based to Air Raid, behind a dynamic QB he showed he can do it.  And has gone from afterthought to one of the most sought after coaches once again.   Whittingham likewise has been trying to change his offense  (more on that later) but lacks that dynamic QB, and frankly aside from Dres Anderson lacked elite playmakers - and Anderson got hurt in October.  At which point Utah began losing.  Put a player like Trevone Boykin on Utah and they might have been the team losing to Oregon last night in the Pac 12 championship game - and the 8-4 season is 10-2 instead.  And Whittingham is much more coveted.  Little things....

Michigan fans will be familiar with Whittingham from 2 encounters with Utah in recent years - both ending badly for UM.  It is generally a team full of 2/3 stars that looks fundamentally sound on defense/special teams without much star power on offense.  Utah is not a talent rich area of the country and what talent there is will get swiped often by BYU or regional Pac 12 powers - hell, even Michigan can go in and get a guy like Mone.

This is a fundamentally sound coach who knows his stuff and maximizes talent - the open question is what would he do with more talent.  I think he could do very well.  He'd be much more inspiring than Mike Riley.  So let's throw out another comparable - Gary Andersen at Wisconsin.  Both coached in Utah, and Andersen had a far shorter record but Andersen is providing competent leadership and Wisconsin has not missed a beat.  One issue for Whittingham is lack of Midwest footprint.  But Andersen seems to be doing fine without one, unless one believes he is living off Bielema's players (which might be the case - he has not been there long enough for his own players to cyce through).

Coordinator Situation

The main issue for Kyle Whittingham is offense.  Utah is not good at it most years.  But Whittingham has not stood pat - he keeps trying new OCs, almost to be a LOL level, and not having success.   Now I did not research why all these guys left (aside from Dennis Erickson who I recall was demoted this past offseason for the new hire - and Norm Chow), but here is a list of OCs:

• 2010: Dave Schramm's 2nd year
• 2011: Norm Chow
• 2012: Brian Johnson
• 2013: Dennis Erickson
• 2014: Dave Christensen

That's 5 OCs in 6 years folks.  I know Chow went to Hawaii to be HC in 2012, and Erickson's results stunk so he was demoted but it's a lot of turnover.  Christensen ran some of Missouri's really cool Chase Daniels type offenses so you'd think he'd eventually be the one - with more talent infused.

The defensive side of the ball is no issue - much like Wisconsin's Dave Aranda (brought over from Utah State), Utah has 39 year old Kalani Sitake...who is in his 6th year as DC (!).  He is from Tonga which in the Utah area helps as Samoa and Tonga seem to provide a lot of players.   Utah runs a 4-3 defense so no issues in transition costs.   I would expect both Wiscy's Aranda and Utah's Sitake to not be long for the coordinator ranks - these are exactly the type of guys a mid major gives a chance to as their HC.   Or maybe if Whittingham leaves for Ann Arbor, Sitake would elevate to Utah's HC.   But again, Kyle is a defensive oriented coach so I'd feel comfortable he finds a suitable replacement down the road.

(Don't cross this man)

Etc

Whittingham is a modest hire in terms of salary at $2M.  We'd probably give him $4M because hell this is Michigan fergodsakes but guys like Andersen went to Wiscy for $1.9M and Helfrich makes $2.3M.

Recruiting?  Obviously recruiting at UM will be different than Utah but a cursory glance at Utah's classes from 2007 forward shows classes from 30 to 70, but mostly 40ish.  There has been an uptick since entering the Pac 12 except for last year's drop to the 60s.  But the past 3-5 years has been a 35-45 type range.  Respectable for a team that is in the bottom third of the Pac 12.  Rank 35-45 in Big 10 terms would be Wisconsin; 30 to 70 (his longer term work at Utah) would be more like Purdue or Illinois.  So this just gives a frame of reference for the type of talent Whittingham has when he mashes a Michigan team or goes into the Rose Bowl and beats UCLA, or hosts USC and beats them too.  It's a coach who maximizes talent.

Recent (10 years) coaching background

• 2005-present:  HC at Utah

Analysis:  As mentioned above he has been at Utah in one form or another since 1994.  Hence my reluctance to do a CC on him along with all the other candidates 6-8 weeks ago.  Is he pliable?  I don't know - either he sees he has done all he can do at Utah, or he is playing Nebraska and (perhaps) Michigan for a raise.

Results

Caveat for results ----> (a) nothing exists in a vacuum (b) as a coordinator you can benefit or be penalized if your HC is good or bad or average (c) injuries or graduation can change your results dramatically in any 1 year.  This is the type of stuff you'd research as an AD staff on every potential candidate.

His coordinator history is too far in the past to bother with so we'll just focus on his HC years and I won't do it quite in depth as some other CCs.

(1) HC at Utah

I did not bother with breaking out Whittingham's "Total Offense" and "Total Defense" stats as it takes a lot of time to compile and instead just went with Football Outsiders FEI and S&P+.  If unfamiliar with those you can go to the site and read up on the - essentially they are advanced stats which try to best compensate for strength of schedule, eliminate garbage time stats, etc etc.   Total Offense and Total Defense is nothing more than a measure of total yards gained or given up, which can be highly flawed and for example makes every Big 10 defense look a lot better than it is due to a myriad of awful QBs in conference.

Here is Whittingham's data - FEI measure started in 2007, S&P in 2005.  The 4 starred years (2011-2014) reflect his Pac 12 experience.  Again, please allow for the fact when a mid major goes into a major conference it is a big step up - even Gary Patterson had struggles when TCU graduated upward.

So what do we see overall?  Defensively we see a team that is solid almost every year (2012 is one exception - it happens)  It is not quite as good as what Gary Patterson did at TCU but again, Texas has a different level of "2nd rate" player than Utah does.   What impresses me is when Utah moved from the Mountain West to the Pac 12 the defensive data (aside from an outlier in 2012) stayed consistent - that is great.

Offense?  Well that is the issue with Utah.  Again there is a lot of similarities to what Gary Patterson brings you - consistent defense almost every year, and years the offense shows up you tend to surge.   There are some outliers here - i.e. S&P+ was happy with Utah's offense in 2009-2010 while FEI did not like it.    I am sure changing OCs like diapers has not helped - a consistent OC with an "upper end" QB would surely help Whittingham. 

Seasons

Let's look at the last 5 years (1 year MWC, 4 years Pac 12) to show what a Whittingham brings you. 

2010 - Utah was 10-3, 7-1 in conference and finshed #23 in the country.   That was the year TCU went 13-0 and finished #2 in the country.  TCU did smack Utah to the tune of 47-7 that year; the other 2 losses were 28-3 in South Bend to Brian Kelly's ND, and 26-3 in a bowl to a 12-1 Boise State which finished #9 in the country.   So Utah was smashed in all 3 losses which I don't particularly like but 2 of those teams were top 10, and one finished #2 in the country.  The wins were over the rest of the Mountain West, and OOC teams like Pittsburgh (close) and Iowa State (a blowout0.  Air Force and San Diego State (hi Hoke!) were the 3rd and 4th best team in the conf that year - Utah won both of those close.

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2011 - Year 1 in the Pac 12, Utah went 8-5 overall (4-5 conference).  That is actually pretty damn good for a first year conversion.  Patterson went 7-6, 4-8 his first 2 years in the Big 12.  A mixed bag of wins and losses - a blowout of UCLA and BYU offset by bad losses to the likes of Coloardo and ASU.

• Key Wins:  54-10 @ #23 BYU (wow), 31-6 vs Neuheisel's 6-8 UCLA, 27-8 v Mike Riley's 3-9 OSU, 30-27 OT win in a bowl over Paul Johnson's 8-5 GA Tech.
• Key Losses:  23-14 @ Lane Kiffin's 10-2 #6 USC, 31-14 vs Sark's 7-6 Washington,  35-14 v Erickson's 6-7 ASU, 34-10 v Tedford's 7-6 Cal, 17-14 to 3-10 Colorado.

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2012 - Year 2 in the Pac 12 did not go so well, 5-7 overall (3-6 conference).  No need to break this year out - it was a "form" year - Utah beat every team that finished below them in the Pac 12 (Colorado, Cal, Washington State)... and BYU OOC.  And lost to everyone else.  The main positive is the nature of the losses - all except for a blowout loss to Todd Graham's ASU were 1-2 score losses.

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2013 - Year 3 was like year 2 other than the fact it had a major upset in a home win vs Rose Bowl bound Stanford.  5-7 overall (2-7 conference).  Utah owned the state of Utah, beating a pretty solid Utah State team, and BYU yet again.  In conference the only wins were over a bad Colorado and a 27-21 win over Stanford - which is built like Utah in many ways actually.   Again, all the losses (moral victories I know) were 1-2 type scores other than a loss at Oregon.   So it shows a team who plays decent defense but just does not have the offense to compete with the high powered engines of the Pac 12.  If that Utah team was playing Northwestern, Iowa, PSU, and Michigan instead of Pac 12 offenses it probably would have done far better in conference.

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2014 - Year 4 was an improvement for Utah as you reach the stage where Mountain West players fall off your roster and you get some Pac 12 players reaching upperclassmen stage.   There were only 2 bad losses - late in the year, to Oregon and Arizona; 2 teams in the conf championship game.   The season started with 3 tomato cans - Idaho State, Fresno State, and Michigan (zing!).   There was a 1 pt loss to Washington State (but that defense held Mike Leach to 28 pts), and an OT loss to very good ASU (I watched that game, it was very even).   Some key wins were @ UCLA, @ Stanford, and hosting USC.  All solid but not elite teams.   The team really was hurt by the loss of its 1 major offensive weapon in late October - Dres Anderson.  The team went 2-3 after although I presume they'd have lost to Oregon and Arizona either way.

Overall

Is Kyle Whittingham the best coach for UM?  No.  Is he my top choice? No.  If Jim Harbaugh says no should he be in the next tier IF he is truly interested?  I believe so.   The tea leaves as I read them are not Jim Harbaugh vs Les Miles.  I don't believe Les Miles will be offered due to what we are hearing from various outlets, Miles "history", plus Jim Hackett's insistance on character.  So I think it is Jim Harbaugh v the field.  If that field does not include Gary Patterson (who from all accounts is a no), and Todd Graham (who is a very good football coach plagued by being a mercenary and has little to no chance of being a UM candidate), I think Kyle Whittingham should be under strong consideration. 

Utah seems to be turning the corner this year - they still lack dynamic playmakers of any sort on offense.  Again I will go back to the Gary Patterson example - a year ago at this time TCU was coming off year 2 of the Big 12 and many wondered if the Patterson magic was just a MWC thing?  TCU was 4-8, with the 104th ranked offense in America.  People would spit on me if I offered Gary Patterson as a CC 12 months ago.  Now everyone wants him.  I see a lot of similarities in Whittingham with the caveat I believe Patterson is a top 10 coach and Whittingham  more like top 20. 

The coach Whittingham actually reminds me the most of in terms of way the teams play is one Mark Dantonio.  Without the douche factor.  Good defenses, maximizes value of player, develops players, offense (until this year at MSU) somewhat uninspiring.  By all accounts - as best as I can tell from 2000 miles away - Whittingham is also a "solid guy" - so that fits Hackett's goals regarding winning with character. 

As for that offense, you have to project what Dave Christensen (who again had some hell good offenses in Missouri with less talent then UM) - if he followed Whittingham to UM  could do with this talent ....and we know what Utah can do on defense with far less talent then UM brings.  Of course we do not know if Christensen would be coming along with Whittingham - Utah's offense looked more pro style than spread to me when they played Michigan but Christensen had a lot of pass spread concepts under Pinkel in his Missouri years.

Is Whittingham "better" than a Jim Mora (also a "long shot" candidate)?  Debatable - depends what you prefer.  I think both would sort of get UM to a similar place but in very different fashions.  Whittingham would not be a threat to go to the NFL as Mora would.  Lack of midwest exposure would be a penalty for both Mora and Whittingham - but again Gary Andersen seems to be doing ok from a similar West coast/Mountain situation.   Is he "better" than Mullen? He is less complicated. Utah's offense is less different to UM's than Miss State's is, there are no oversigning issues, - Pac 12 recruiting would be more on par with Big 10 recruiting.  There is no pulling of scholarships and offering greyshirts 2 weeks before a kid shows up on campus.   Is he "better" than Greg Schiano or Mike Riley?   I don't know but I'd feel he has more upside.   And he is less of a douche than Schiano (Riley is supposed to be a super nice guy ala Hoke).