Can we definitively say Les Miles is oversigning again? And what can we say about it?
First thing's first, I think I did a pretty thorough job, but if you think any of my numbers need to be corrected, just say so in the comments. This can be a group effort.
One of the most common objections heard from Michigan fans with respect to the potential hiring of Les Miles is that he's demonstrated a penchant for oversigning. ESPN's Outside the Lines produced a segment about a month ago widely linked to on this board highlighting LSU's use of this practice under Miles. If it matters to you my take is that it's abhorrent that a head coach making a multimillion dollar salary and with tremendous institutional backing could go into some poor kid's home and sell the promise of a college degree and then spit the kid out when he becomes expendable. I would hate seeing someone who'd do that become the head coach at my alma mater both for the sake of the kids he'd recruit and for the fact that he'd be the most public face of my school. Game theory be damned.
I got into an argument with psychomatt earlier about whether LSU was set to oversign again this year. I cited http://www.oversigning.com which says LSU currently has 8 more commits than it will have a place for. Psychomatt disputed these numbers. So, fair enough. Let's take a closer look.
As chronicled by the OTL report LSU trimmed down right before fall camp to get down to 85 scholarship players to start the year. Since, one player was dismissed from the team and none have transferred. The player dismissed was fullback Dominique Allen. He had a scholarship, was dismissed for an undisclosed violation of team rules, and Miles noted interestingly at the press conference that walk on James Stampley was clearly the number 1 fullback anyway.
That gets us down to 84.
Now, to the roster analysis:
Outgoing seniors
There are 9 outgoing scholarship seniors. They are: Terrence Tolliver, Lezerius Levingston, Josh Jasper, Derek Helton, Richard Murphy, Jai Eugene, Joseph Barksdale, Kelvin Sheppard and Drake Nevis.
All other seniors on LSUs website are either expressly denoted as walk ons or have completely blank bio pages and no varsity letters. Exception: Dan Graff, listed as a player-coach (?!) who joined the team as a sophomore walk on. I'm confident in counting on him still being a walk on.
Potential 5th year candidates
- Josh Dworaczyk- has started every game for them at left guard this year. Will almost certainly return.
- Will Blackwell- was the starter at the beginning of the year at right guard before injuring his ankle. He recovered to play in the final 3 games. Probably back.
- T-Bob Hebert- took over Blackwell's starting job when he went down and spent the previous year starting at center. As a multi year starter he'll be welcomed back.
- Stevan Ridley- LSU's top back this year getting 249 carries and 1,147 yards. If he wants to come back he can. And he probably will come back at least according to where he's currently projected to go in the draft and to general message board scuttlebutt.
- Stefoin Francois- Started every game at linebacker, will be welcomed back. Not thought to be a draft risk.
- Ron Brooks- backup cornerback/strong safety and contributor on special teams. Played all 12 games, but started none. Put up decent numbers, though, 28 tackles 5 tfls and 3 PBUs. With Peterson leaving on the one hand and the number crunch on the other let's give him a 50-50 chance of being back.
- Jarrett Lee- 2nd string qb. It might be conceivable they'd let him go, but because Miles in his infinite wisdom, put Russell Shepard at wide receiver (seriously if he comes RIP Dilithium), their current 3rd string option is a freshman walk on. Zac Mettenberger (highly touted Georgia castoff) is about to come aboard though. But still, who likes having a redshirt freshman walk on as your 3rd string? Lee's getting invited back.
- Jordan Jefferson- Starting qb. He's welcome back.
- Patrick Peterson- Thorpe winner. All world cb. NFL. Gone.
- Alex Russian- Cone like tight end turned backup snapper. It's a wonder he isn't gone already.
- Mitch Joseph- in LSU's 3 man tight end rotation. Started 4 games this year. Let's say it's 50-50.
Only case with any ambiguity is Dennis Johnson, but after going through message board stuff I'm 90% sure he's a walk on.
So giving Les more wiggle room than he probably deserves let's count the maybes as both out. So in total we'll say that's 4 RS juniors not coming back. Obviously that +9 seniors +1 free schollie = 14.
Potential 3rd year draft entrants
I couldn't find any 3rd year guys LSU fans seem worried about losing early to the draft. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Medical Hardships
As Brian explained here , outside Alabama, medical hardships aren't very common. In fact, between 2008 and 2010 SEC schools that don't love houndstooth on average gave out slightly more than one each.
Recruits who fail to enroll
LSU currently has 21 commitments and is still in on some prospects. Let's hypothesize they don't gain or lose any commits between now and signing day, although it's probably more likely they gain. From 2005-2010 (Les' tenure) LSU has signed 144 players of whom 135 qualified academically and enrolled.* That makes for a 93.75% matriculation rate. Obviously using this rate to project into the future has its limitations, Miles might have changed his recruiting philosophy and taken on more high risk kids this year, but given how much he oversigned by last year and that 28 of the 29 in that class enrolled, I doubt a huge variation is likely this year. Anyway, using that figure we can project that 1 player not qualifying is the most likely outcome, having 2 not qualify is the second most likely outcome and having none fail to qualify the 3rd most likely outcome. Let's go with taking one out since it's the most likely statistically and they might end up with more commitments anyway.
Conclusion
You don't really need me for this, it's simple math. But giving Les more wiggle room than he probably deserves this is what we get 84 - 9 - 4 + 20 = 91. Miles is looking at being 6 above the limit right now.
Is this really a big deal?
I can hear people say it now: But, but, that's not accounting for players who choose to transfer voluntarily or make boneheaded decisions in the offseason and get kicked out justifiably!
To reply: Yes
Any oversigning analysis shouldn't account for that. For a coach to take a kid's signature, or even a commitment, when he doesn't have a spot for him is fundamentally wrong. Even if he thinks it's more likely than not that the spot he needs will free up in time, he promised a player much younger than him, usually much poorer and less powerful the opportunity to get a degree and play the sport he loves and by accepting that signature or commitment he doesn't have a spot for he's putting that at risk. It's grossly reckless and highly irresponsible. No institution of higher learning should be associated with it. And really, if a football program ends up a few scholarship players short is it the worst thing in the world? Those scholarships would instead go to deserving walk ons. And what's wrong with that?
January 10th, 2011 at 3:49 AM ^
Two things:
1. Talk to me when he has broken/violated an SEC or NCAA rule relating to over signing.
2. Given Miles (and the rest of the SEC schools) penchant for over signing, they still manage to get plenty of high-caliber recruits wanting to play for them. Seems as though many feel its worth the risk*.
*I am prepared to hear the "you are blaming the victim" retort, but you have to admit, many of these kids must be aware of what's is going on yet they still choose to participate. Perhaps they feel it won't happen to them, dunno.
January 10th, 2011 at 5:32 AM ^
1. Why are some ineffective bureaucracy's rules so important to people like you? He's a powerful man systematically betraying vulnerable kids' trust in life altering ways. He's supposed to be someone kids can go to and look up to. It's perverse.
2. Kids don't think it'll happen to them because they're kids and they look up to and trust these coach and believe them when they say it won't happen to them. It may be stupid, but again, who are the adults in this situation?
January 10th, 2011 at 9:40 AM ^
The decision to do what is right should not be based on whether or not there is a law coercing you to do so.
January 10th, 2011 at 3:57 AM ^
Oversigning is a disgusting practice.
Miles oversigns.
That is all.
January 10th, 2011 at 4:04 AM ^
I don't really know what to think, and here's why:
Looking at these commitments to LSU, 16 of the 21 commitments are from the state of Louisiana. 13 out of 29 last year. 12 out of 24 the year before. In other words, these are guys that not only want to play football, but want to stay close to home.
With such a rich recruiting area, being the only major school in the state, they probably offer the kids they want, expecting commitments. The problem is that they then wouldn't be able to broaden their recruiting base out of state.
So - do they get rid of all these in-state kids who want to play football and get an education close to their homes? Do they stop recruiting nationwide? Do they offer fewer Louisiana kids because they're getting more commitments? And what does that mean for the local kids who don't sign on with LSU? It seems to me that they'd prefer to stay in Louisiana...
I'm not being snarky or dismissive. I truly don't know the answers to these questions. I don't know the solution, but it doesn't seem as bad to me when I see local kids on that list. Does it suck when people get their scholarships revoked? Absolutely. But so does telling kids who want to go to school that they'll have to go somewhere other than their local State school because there's no room...
January 10th, 2011 at 7:56 AM ^
Grayshirting is certainly a known and accepted practice for cases like this. However, the key is that, when your coach is on the up-and-up, the recruited players know this from the beginning. And it's not exactly a hard concept to convey. Watch: "We'd love to have you, but we have scholarship limitations. We can offer you, and we hope you play for us, but we cannot guarantee that we will have enough scholarships for you to get one (this year)." From what we know from outside of the LSU program, Miles apparently did not feel the need to make an attempt. If that is correct, I'd sooner call in Captain Front-Butt than someone who pulls slimeball moves like that.
January 10th, 2011 at 5:11 AM ^
It's really too bad they oversign in the SEC. Dont like it one bit. Sure am glad he wont be doing that here. Les Miles would sooner cut off his hand than hurt the University's reputation. Any more ways you can disparage our next head coach? Who, again, is willing to give up a national championship contender to save(and I do mean save) his alma mater?
January 10th, 2011 at 5:30 AM ^
What a cop out. Miles didn't have to oversign because he was in the SEC. Meyer didn't, Richt didn't. What Miles did is fucked up. Because of it, I'd never send my kid to play for him (as if). I'm not trying to flame, but that doesn't magically change if he becomes our head coach.
January 10th, 2011 at 6:51 AM ^
Miles would go from being part of the evil SEC oversigning empire to being a savvy Big Ten coach who knows how to "plan ahead" for attrition when "managing his scholarship numbers." From outlaw to master of compliance at the stroke of a pen: isn't life grand?
Seriously, though, I would hope a line would be drawn in the sand and that Miles would be told "we don't do that at the University of Michigan." We'll see how it goes; we don't even know who the coach will actually be yet.
January 10th, 2011 at 7:52 AM ^
Beginning the first day of a coaching tenure with a promise/requirement of AD baby-sitting to avoid foul play... this is not so attractive to me.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:16 PM ^
Tell that to Indiana fans.
'Outlaw to master of compliance' might as well have been the soundbite of the summer of 2006 when they hired Kelvin Sampson
A person doesnt change stripes because of location. If you're unethical, you'll probably be unethical at your next gig.
January 12th, 2011 at 11:54 PM ^
After the last two days.
January 10th, 2011 at 6:07 AM ^
... let's play.
First, I am not a fan of oversigning or an apologist for those who abuse the practice. The NCAA should make it a high priority to put in place new rules to curb it or eliminate it entirely.
Second, I never said I did not agree with your numbers. I said that neither you nor I have access to the proper information required to accurately estimate the numbers. I also said that relying on numbers from a website with the name oversigning.com was probably not a very good idea because the website almost certainly has an agenda (duh) and, even if it doesn't, the website also does not have access to the proper information needed to estimate the numbers with any accuracy. I stand by those statements 100%.
Third, the number you threw out for LSU earlier when we went over this was 8. Now the number is 6. That means (a) you admittedly do not know what the correct numbers are and (b) your earlier estimate differs from your current estimate by 25%. Even worse, both of your estimates are based on whatever info you have been able to find poking around the internetz. That level of "accuracy" should not be the basis for publicly trashing a guy's professional reputation.
Fourth, LSU has not signed anyone for the 2011 class. All LSU has today is some number of verbal commitments that it cannot even speak about publicly. We have no way to know if the list of verbals you are using for LSU is even the same list LSU is using. Moreover, all schools use a variety of techniques to manage verbals, including "slow playing" recruits and sometimes even taking one or two extra verbals if they believe certain verbals they have received are particularly soft. It seems you should at least wait until LSU signs its 2011 class before castigating Les Miles publicly for maliciously signing far too many players than he can possibly enroll next fall.
Finally, all programs have to play within the same set of NCAA rules. You might not like those rules, but they are what they are. Brian's ideas for changing the rules to ban oversigning and require 4-year scholarships might be good ones, but those are not the rules currently in effect. Within this context, the B10 has a rule that caps oversignings at 3 per class. Let me say that again -- the B10 specifically allows oversigning, but caps it at a maximum of 3 per class. It allows a small amount of oversigning because some recruits who sign never qualify academically and some returning scholarship players are lost during the offseason for reasons that are not the fault of their schools. The SEC has a different, much looser rule than the B10's, but make no mistake that the SEC, the B10 and every other conference allow oversigning to some degree or another.
I have no idea whether your "rough" estimate that LSU is going to oversign 6 players a month from now is true or not. The problem is that neither do you. Of course, even if 6 turns out to be the right number, LSU is operating within the NCAA and SEC rules. And don't forget that B10 teams can oversign by 3, so it is not like Les Miles is some great oversigning, grass-eating devil who is doing something that would never be condoned by respectable coaches in the B10. It is done by highly-respected coaches all over the country, including coaches in the B10, every year.
Now get off my lawn!
January 10th, 2011 at 6:43 AM ^
1. The difference between 8 and 6 is explained by the fact I'm being especially generous to Miles' cause with 2 potential 5th year guys. I'm not sure my number is absolutely right. I'm quite sure it's close. Looking at the roster it's really not hard to get a ballpark estimate. And even if the difference were just one that would still be reckless.
2. I agree I don't know for certain how many Miles will actually sign, heck it's possible everyone decommits and LSU doesn't sign a single recruit. But there's really no point in being that conservative in an analysis. I was already conservative in estimating they wouldn't add any recruits to the commits they already have, despite being in on a few. As things stand it's a fair take. If things change, I'll update this, but I doubt I'll be revising downwards.
3. The Big Ten's has no oversigning rules related to the 85 limit, only the 25 limit which is rarely the limiting factor. But regardless, the legality issue totally misses the point. My problem with it isn't that it's illegal, it's that it's fucked up. And it's avoidable, lots of coaches won't do it.
January 10th, 2011 at 6:50 AM ^
... that you do not have good numbers. Also, you are wrong on how the B10 cap on signing works (which is really bad, considering you are holding yourself out as such an expert). The way the B10 signing rule works is that each team is required to calculate the number of players they can enroll in the upcoming fall class under all NCAA rules and then can sign up to three more. The calculation is made using both the 25 per class and 85 total limitations as well as any adjustments due to penalties imposed by the NCAA, etc. If you cannot follow this or have any further questions about how it works, just let me know.
January 10th, 2011 at 8:18 AM ^
but can only have 25 come in July/August. That doesn't allow for cutting current players which is something done regularly in the SEC. Over one four year period Alabama took 113 LOIs which is 28 over the 85 limit. If the NCAA is so concerned with a little extra stretching giving a competitive advantage what the hell does allow a school to take 5 recruiting classes in a four year period do?
January 10th, 2011 at 9:32 AM ^
About the inaccuracy of numbers here is baffling. Of course there are going to be variations, some events are in the future and cannot be predicted, it's called uncertainty.
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<br>However the OP does a great job of showing that even while taking conservative estimates, LSU will have about about a half dozen scholarship players too many, a number that could actually get much higher.
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<br>So that answers the first question, yes we can definitely say that Miles oversign.
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<br>As for the second question, it's a personal opinion, but I believe that is wrong and contradicts every moral value that college sports and the NCAA should fight to defend, regardless of what the current rules state.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:06 PM ^
Uh, I just told you,
the legality issue totally misses the point.
It's completely inessential for my argument.
January 10th, 2011 at 8:15 AM ^
No one is arguing that oversigning is against NCAA or SEC rules, so everyone can just stop trotting that out to defend the practice. The argument is that it's unethical and it manipulates teenage kids for the advantage of the coach and the football team.
Lots of you guys really do have the bootlicking, authoritarian personality, don't you? HE MIGHT BE OUR GUY! FALL INTO LINE!
January 10th, 2011 at 6:47 AM ^
Moved.
January 10th, 2011 at 8:43 AM ^
January 10th, 2011 at 9:37 AM ^
So you're saying oversigning is okay as long as it helps us be more competitive? You sound like a really nice guy and I'd like to get to know you better.
January 10th, 2011 at 9:50 AM ^
January 10th, 2011 at 11:09 AM ^
I can't believe, after just getting rid of a coach half the fan base never liked because they thought he was sleazy from the start, so many people people are willing to ignore this because he might bring in a few more wins. If he gets hired, I can't wait for the local and national media to brush past this in order to spew out "Michigan got a Michigan Man this time" headlines. It makes my head hurt.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:04 PM ^
January 10th, 2011 at 9:16 AM ^
makes oversigning sound like a bad drug habit.
"Can we definitively say that Frank is snorting coke again? What do we think of that?"
January 10th, 2011 at 9:41 AM ^
Thanks for putting in that work.
"my take is that it's abhorrent that a head coach making a multimillion dollar salary and with tremendous institutional backing could go into some poor kid's home and sell the promise of a college degree and then spit the kid out when he becomes expendable. I would hate seeing someone who'd do that become the head coach at my alma mater both for the sake of the kids he'd recruit and for the fact that he'd be the most public face of my school. Game theory be damned." ---- Well said. I couldn't agree more.
January 10th, 2011 at 9:46 AM ^
Which is why we'll all know that the constant protestations of UM's ethical superiority by everybody from MSC on down are as hollow as the next school's. If he's hired, then we'll know it's just win, baby, and we'll turn a blind eye on your transgressions.
January 10th, 2011 at 11:04 AM ^
Welcome to Michigan would you like your grass steamed or raw Coach?
January 10th, 2011 at 11:15 AM ^
DOGS!
January 10th, 2011 at 10:04 AM ^
I think the whole "Les Miles oversigns so we shouldnt hire him" group is a small minority amongst Michigan fans. From the people I talk to (fans not media type), most would be excited if Les Miles leaves LSU for Michigan.
January 10th, 2011 at 10:21 AM ^
Yeah cuz like everybody murders....
January 10th, 2011 at 10:08 AM ^
Think Dee Hart wasn't told of the practice at Alabama? He want anyway. Les Miles was hired to win football games, not be some teens Dad. Life is gonna get a whole lot harder kid. Get used to it.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:01 PM ^
The top-rated, all-purpose RB in the country (I believe) very likely doesn't think he'll be a victim of this practice at any point during his college career. I would extend that to most of, say, Alabama's commits, who are mostly 4- and 5-stars (only five 3-stars in 21 total commits).
I've read that coaches (Saban, Miles) supposedly told so-and-so player that he could be greyshirted. But the exuberance of youth makes every highly-rated recruit think that he won't get the Saban treatment.
January 13th, 2011 at 12:01 AM ^
Brandon and our new coach don't agree with you
January 10th, 2011 at 10:08 AM ^
1) It's how the SEC operates, and he wouldn't be fulfilling his job requirements at LSU by not being competitive without this.
2) The recruits know this before hand. I mean, how long did this analysis take you and you aren't even considering playing for an SEC team? If he recruits willingly know this and still sign with LSU, well then that's the chance they are willing to take. Why do you care?
January 10th, 2011 at 10:33 AM ^
Florida and Georgia don't oversign. Even if they did, it wouldn't make it right.
January 10th, 2011 at 10:47 AM ^
that they don't oversign and we'll see about Florida.
The point is that the recruits have to know this. Just google oversigning college football, and you will find http://oversigning.com
If a recruit knows this, yet signs with a school, why does anybody have a problem with this?
January 10th, 2011 at 10:58 AM ^
Obviously, neither one of us is going to be able to prove our side here...That said, I really doubt that Nick Saban says, "Look Dee, this is only a one year contract, so don't assume that you'll be here for year number two." Oversigning also isn't really a very publicized practice, or at least not until recently. I doubt that many kids would think to Google "oversigning." Finally, we're talking about eighteen year-olds who probably can't imagine that it will happen to them...We're not talking about a business here, despite the analogies that people have been using in the last couple of days. We're talking about a representative from an institution of higher education (a man in his fifties) dealing with teenagers.
January 10th, 2011 at 10:21 AM ^
that people who don't want Miles are taking.
It amuses me.
I'm a better person than you because I want the other guy to be the Head Coach!
January 10th, 2011 at 10:30 AM ^
People, myself included, don't want Miles because there are very good reasons - reasons more important than wins and losses - not to want him. I don't think any of us care about being better people than anyone else. That's not the point at all. The point is Michigan living up to being the "leaders and best."
I have no other coach who I'm rooting for to get the job (though I have to admit that the pipe dream that is Gruden sounds good).
January 10th, 2011 at 10:28 AM ^
are pretty accurate and both sides of the argument are pretty correct. Also pretty negative too. Just depends on what side of the coin you're looking at.
The one thing we can all agree on is Les Miles (or any coach for that matter) is better than our current situation. I believe Michigan has a better support system (especially now) as a whole than almost every team in the nation. In other words...Les will have his back watched.
DB, if he chooses to hire Les, is well aware of his shortcomings. He will have protocol in place to offset these potential pitfalls.
Be happy people, this will be a good week. Let's get back to optimistically supporting our AD, future coach, and program.
January 10th, 2011 at 10:43 AM ^
What it comes down to is that oversigning is a weak argument about why we shouldn't have a coach. It happens. It is sad to see some less talented kid get "kicked off the team" but everyone does it. You don't hear about it at Michigan because we don't kick six kids out we kick only one or two. I understand 6>2 but the practice is there. So stop bitching about it. What is really sad, no matter who we get the Michigan fan base will always be divided..."united we stand divided we fall".
*numbers are not real they are solely examples to help my argument :)
January 10th, 2011 at 11:00 AM ^
Name one kid who Michigan flat-out cut from the team.
January 10th, 2011 at 11:33 AM ^
Artis Chambers "left the team" http://www.umvarsityblue.com/2008/11/artis-chambers-leaves-michigan/
James Mckinney "had medical problems" http://michigansportscenter.com/2007/08/james-mckinney-to-transfer-to_1…
come on man these are the same euphemisms LSU uses as well as every team in the NCAA.
and and former cornerback Chris Richards says this about the Michigan coaching staff, "'But I wanted to go to a place where I could really trust the coaches,' Richards said, admitting 'that wasn't always the case at Michigan'." http://www.newsday.com/sports/college/richards-finds-home-at-stony-broo…
I am not trying to make my favorite team sound like a bad place I am just saying it happens. I love my Michigan and whoever we get everyone should back.
January 10th, 2011 at 11:41 AM ^
I don't remember McKinney...Anyway, saying that their reasons for leaving are euphemisms for what you assume really happened is not the same as proof. An appeal to cynicism is no better than an appeal to unquestioning belief in authority...Michigan has kept around plenty of players who were less than stellar. Circumstantial evidence is on Michigan's side as much as your inferences can be used against Michigan.
January 10th, 2011 at 11:54 AM ^
Look guy, we do not really know what happens to anyone. We get information from the media who talks to scorned players who then diss the university. Elliot Porter was mad about how he was treated and went to the media. Yet Tony Clemons felt the same way and most got mad at him for what he said about the University and Coach Rod. I understand Michigan is a great school I have been a fan since birth. I know our reputation but shit happens and people are "asked to leave". So saying that we should not hire Les because he oversigns is just stupid. Saying he is unethical because he gives players releases to transfer or even other opportunities to still play at the desired school is also stupid. He has a problem with a lot of people wanting to play for him. It is sad that we are arguing over a guy who may or may not be our next coach. I bet if we hire someone else, people will always find a negative, it's just sad.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:17 PM ^
There's nothing wrong with a kid being asked to leave if he's breaking team rules and generally being a bad influence. But with oversigning, coaches are required to cut kids when they don't have sufficient reason to otherwise, these kids have often done nothing wrong.
January 10th, 2011 at 11:53 AM ^
Chambers was academically inellegible when he decided to transfer so it was a grade issue not a skill issue
January 10th, 2011 at 11:57 AM ^
Actually it seemed it was probably both, "When Rich Rodriguez became the head coach in Ann Arbor, Chambers was moved to linebacker, and was reportedly doing well in the spring prior to an injury. While he was returning to health, fellow safety Michael Williams was also moved to linebacker, where he improved enough to beat out Chambers when he returned, healthy. During the season, Chambers played primarily on special teams, with limited action at linebacker."
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