Your diary to the selection committee's ears. Appreciate the crib notes for what to watch for.
I did not make this headline up
Michigan and all the other teams on the NCAA bubble saw some chips fall their way last night with the Irish losing on their home court to Villanova. The 17-point loss likely drops ND out of any serious at-large contention save for a major run in the Big East Tournament that involves upwards of three wins when the field convenes in New York City next week. According to the latest BE Tourney projections, those wins would have to come against, in order, Rutgers, Syracuse and Louisville, with those last two foes both coming off a bye. Impossible? No. But, it would still be improbable.
The only negative of the outcome was to my bank account. My prediction of an ND win went down in flames, as did the profit I made on Michigan's pointspread cover Sunday afternoon. Sigh. At least I took one for the cause. Kinda like Brian and the abololition of the Live Blogs, right?
That brings us to tonight. While there are several games that will impact the bubble, it's bound to be a frustrating night for Michigan fans. Their fellow bubble mates tipping off tonight are mostly playing second division teams or favored in their game. Or, both. If form holds, Michigan won't gain much traction in the chase.
But, its March. The possibilities are endless, and there is no better time than now to be pulling for the underdog.
Ohio State at Iowa, 9pm, BTN. Line, OSU -1
What happens if Ohio State keeps losing? They’ll be hosting a NIT game, that’s what. For the second straight season, the Buckeyes tournament hopes come down to the final week of play. The Bucks, a solid NCAA pick all winter, are finding their bid in jeopardy as they slump to close the season. After losing four of five games, Ohio State can’t really afford to drop too many more and stay in anybody’s good graces. Winning at Iowa should be a cakewalk, right? Tell that to Badger and Wolverine fans. If OSU can’t take care of business tonight, they will be facing a must win home game this weekend against a Northwestern them that just beat them. Ohio State is a 9-seed according to the Matrix, but they need to do the same thing Michigan needs to do in order to get into the field: Win 2 more games between now and the end of the league tournament.
Cincinnati at South Florida, 7pm, ESPN U. Line, Cincy -2.5
Georgetown at St. John's, 7:30pm, ESPN 360. Line, GT -6.5
I link these games together because of how similar the situations are to one another: Favored Big East bubble team hits the road to play a league lightweight.
On one hand, I recall USF upsetting Marquette and handing the Eagles their first league loss. On the other hand, I see the Bulls have not won a game since. And, in all those games, the margin of defeat exceeded double digits. If the Bearcats lose tonight, it would be much worse than Michigan’s loss to Iowa last month and a fatal blow to their at large hopes. After being run out of the Carrier Dome two days ago, the Bearcats are out of excuses and need to start impressing the tournament committee. As of now, the Bearcats are fifth-to-last out according to the comprehensive Bracket Matrix, one slot ahead and in two more brackets overall the Michigan.
With Georgetown, a deeper look into the Matrix reveals how valid a threat the Hoyas are to steal an at-large from Michigan or any of the other bubble teams. While the Hoyas are only placed in six total brackets (putting them at eighth-to-last out and two spots behind Michigan), all six of those brackets have been updated since the weekend. Compare that to Michigan and Cincinnati which remain in just 6 and 5 respectively of the most recently updated brackets. Translation: The Hoyas aren’t yet getting the overall support of the Bearcats and Wolverines, but they are getting at least as much more recent support. They wont gain any additional support in their game tonight against St. John’s, but they lose all that they do have with a loss.
Both CU and GU close at home against more league patsies (CU hosts Seton Hall, GU hosts Rutgers) this Saturday. Finishing 2-0 to close out probably won’t elevate them into the field, unless massive bubble chaos ensues. However, winning both games this week sets both schools up to advance only as far as the Big East quarterfinals to likely get a bid. Taking a look at the projected Big East Tournament brackets shows both playing more lightweights in the opening round. Wins there would advance both in the second round to play in the afternoon session next Wednesday with the Hoyas playing Villanova and the Bearcats playing West Virginia. Could those be play in games for both schools? I don’t know. But, I do know that each has to win out until that game for it to happen in the first place.
Wake Forest at Maryland, 9pm, no TV. Line, Wake -1.5
Somebody needs to explain to me why this game is not on television? http://www.testudotimes.com/2009/3/2/778436/maryland-wake-forest-previ
“>Deacons vs. Terrapins should be a blast and worth tuning in to, if only to see if Greivas Vasquez can continue to shoot the Terps to a tournament berth. Without him, the Terps don’t beat NC State the other night, let alone their show stopping upset over UNC 10 days ago. But, because of those efforts, Maryland not only controls its own tournament fate, but probably does not need to notch this win tonight to make the Dance. A win might lock them in, but even with a loss, the Terps have a chance at a .500 ACC record with a win at Virginia on Saturday. Like Michigan, two more wins from here on out may do the trick. Maryland is a 12-seed according to the Matrix consensus, but unless they get completely embarrassed tonight, I don’t think they’ll fall out of too many brackets with a loss.
Kansas State at Oklahoma State, 7:30pm, ESPN2. Line, OSU -6
The Bubble Game of the Night takes place in Stillwater when Kansas State hooks up with Oklahoma State. The Cowboys currently sit as a 10-seed in the overall Bracket Matrix. Kansas State, meanwhile, is one spot behind Michigan as the seventh-to-last team out. I tend to think Michigan fans need to pull for KSU in this one. The Wildcats do close with a lay-up at home against Colorado this weekend, but by every metric available, I think Michigan’s resume remains stronger. A win in Stillwater would be impressive, but Michigan can match that by winning at Minnesota later in the week. The Wildcats would still have to advance farther in their own league tournament than Michigan does in theirs to pass Michigan. The Cats will need a big game out of Denis Clemente if they want win this one tonight. Oklahoma State is a different situation. They play at Oklahoma on Saturday. Folks, they are not winning that game. A loss tonight will mean a 0-2 final week. That’s never good for a bubble team. Its senior night in Stillwater, and its hard to believe they’re highly touted 2005 recruiting class is about the . A win tonight will go a long way in preventing that from happening.
Blantantly stealing a trick from Brian and his football game previews, but here goes......Three things to make me look stupid in the morning:
*Iowa beats Ohio State
*Oklahoma State beats KSU, but closer than the experts think.
*And, in a game not featured above, take Florida State +12.5 over Duke. Dont sleep on FSU. They've won twice for me in recent weeks in games against Miami and Clemson. They will give Duke all they can handle this evening. The games tips at 8 and is on ESPN Full Court.
Your diary to the selection committee's ears. Appreciate the crib notes for what to watch for.
Great work, as always. I hope your third prediction doesn't come true, though, since we really want Duke to be as highly ranked as possible.
Should probably add Florida State at Duke, not for bubble consequences, but rather keeping our OOC wins looking impressive. With 17 minutes to go, Duke trails by 2.
Georgetown loses to St. John's; their tournament hopes have to be 100% dead barring a Big East Tournament Championship.
Here's an update of what went down last night and whether it was good or bad for Michigan. I think we can all agree that ultimately, M's chances hinge on their own performance, but teams around us losing certainly doesn't hurt.
Ohio State - Won 60-58; Bad
Cincinnati - Lost 70-59; Good
Georgetown - Lost 59-56; Good
Maryland - Lost 65-63; Good
Kansas State - Lost 77-71; Good
But I think OSU winning might have actually been a good thing because if we get lumped in with them when it comes time to argue who goes to the dance and who doesn't we'd obviously lose that one. I'd rather the argument be between us, PSU and Minn. Once you throw OSU in there it makes us look really bad...
Kinda reminds me of the whole UT-OU-TT thing. If you just compared UT and OU it was obvious but adding TT threw a wrench into the whole thing. So, we're the UT, PSU and Minn are OU and OSU is TT. Let's pray OSU/TT doesn't get brought into the conversation!
So I've been going back and forth on who to root for on this one. Rooting for Wisc would help us with the post Wednesday updated brackets but won't provide quite as much of a bump if we manage to win on Saturday but that would also be a make or break game for the gophers so they might be really pumped for that. Now, if Minnesota wins they will get a bump in the Wednesday brackets but are likely to be in less serious trouble when it comes to playing us. From everything I've read they are much in the same situation as we were on Sunday - win 2 of the next 3 and you're probably in. Now, would a Minnesota win ease them up a little bit and make them easier to pick off since the game against us isn't a *must* win or would the momentum from beating Wisc keep them on a high. I tend to be a fan of the teams we play playing well so it makes us look better but since we're all in the same conference and we just played Wisc it's almost a push in this scenario... Hmm... Thoughts?