With most of the mid-major conference tournaments now in the books, it’s time for the BCS leagues and the like to begin their postseason sectionals.
Not a ton of drama exists in the today’s games as it pertains to the Bubble. In the afternoon sessions of the Atlantic 10 and Conference USA, nobody is a true at large contender. St. Louis/Lasalle, UNCC/St. Joseph’s, Rice/Marshall and Southern Miss/UCF are pure elimination games. The winners advance into league quarterfinals tomorrow afternoon. The loser gets ready for baseball season. All of these teams need to win out for the automatic bid in order to make the field. None are even in the NIT projections, but if teams like the St. Louis, Lasalle and St. Joseph’s win a couple of games this week, they might be able to extend their season and play in the Invitational instead.
In the Big 12, Texas, a team safely in the field, plays last place Colorado. The tournament begins with an intriguing 8/9 between Nebraska and Baylor. Both need to win out to make the field, although a case might be made for Nebraska, whose 9-9 league mark is the best they’ve done in 10 years, for an at large should they advance all the way into the league finals.
The marquee bubble game of the day session is taking place now, as you read this, when the Providence Friars, the league’s 8-seed, plays Depaul, the 16-seed. Providence will be a team discussed all week as far as their NCAA merits are concerned. As of this morning, the Friars are fifth-to-last out of the Bracket Matrix. Only 9 Bracketologists include Providence in their field. One of them is B101, which has projected the most accurate fields over a three-year period, so there might be more to PC’s candidacy than meets the eye.
Heading into the game, the Friars have already lost. By virtue of Depaul’s upset yesterday over Cincinnati, Providence misses a chance to book a nice looking win on its resume this afternoon. A loss to the Blue Demons would be lethal. However, a win won’t force people to take a second look at the Friars. Depaul won for the first time since December yesterday and became the first team in Big East history to go winless in league play, but rebound to win a BE Tournament Game. For the Friars to get over the hump and impress the selection committee, they need to take care of business today and beat top-seeded Louisville tomorrow afternoon.
While everyone expects the Friars to beat the Blue Demons today, Providence has to overcome its own Big East Tournament Demons in the process. They’ve lost five straight BE Tournament games, 10 of their last 11 and have not won a game in this sectional since 2003. Nobody questions the Friars offense, but their defense needs to shore up if they want to win a couple of games and have a chance at making the NCAAs. In eight of their last 14 games, Providence has given up at least 90 points. In Big East play, they allow just over 80 points per game.
Today against Depaul, the Friars are heavy chalk. The line closed at PC -10. The only way Depaul advances is to play the complete opposite of Providence and slow the game down, limiting the total number of possessions. Providence should win, but I can’t bite on that big number. Depaul played them within single digits in slow paced game earlier in the season. How will PC respond to the letdown of playing Depaul? Will they be looking ahead? Do the Demons have an advantage because they got their tourney feet wet? We’ll find out.
In the second game, Marquette plays St. Johns, who put the final nail in the Hoyas coffin yesterday. The winner advances to play Villanova. In addition to the ESPN broadcasts, Card Chronicle will be live-blogging the day's action over at the Louisville's SB Nation Blog. With the winner of the first game up next for the Cards, it might be worth checking out their take.
Predictions, Wednesday Day Session
I do like one game in the noon session today: I have Nebraska in a pick ‘em over Baylor. Nebraska’s great defense against the Bears great offense, I’ll take the defense every time. These clubs come into the game headed in opposite directions with the Huskers having covered three games in a row, while Baylor has covered only three times this calendar year and are on a 1-10 ATS run. Nebraska will not wow anyone with their talent or athletes, but they might be the most intense team in the Big 12. Baylor might be the least intense team and are just playing out the string. Nebraska just went into Waco and beat the Bears by four points. No reason to think they cant do that again this afternoon.
The Pick: Nebraska, pick ‘em, over Baylor. Game starts at 12:35.
In the next round of games beginning during the 2 o'clock hour, I will be taking St. Joe's over UNC Charlotte. The Hawks are solid enough to win a couple of games in this field. Bottom line, I have a soft spot for St. Joe's, probably because I like their mascot, which never stops flapping its wings. They'll have enough firepower to ease by the Miners.
The Pick: St. Joe's -2 over UNCC. After the CSU cover last night, the March record is 19-12-2. Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler!