breakout vs disappointing performers
Im curious to find out who everyone predicts will perform other than as to expectation. i would have put this on the board, except iv been very lazy in recent months and have limited myself to reading and not so much posting, so i dont have enough points...anyhow my predictions are as follows:
perform above expectation:
van bergen - my reasoning here is somewhat limited. for some reason i just like his potential, and i think he will be overlooked as a large portion of attention will be on graham and martin
stevie brown - (unless ur expecting first team all big ten at db) a lot of people have predicted this and i tend to agree. coaches have always been very high on this kid, and his skill level is superb. i think the position switch will really pay off.
troy woolfolk - he performed relatively well in his time in at corner. i think he will perform very well for us at safety
junior hemingway - i think hell bounce back from injury very strongly
stonum - he still wont block worth shit, but i think he will have flashes of the brilliance that many expected when he was recruited. maybe its just wishful thinking but stonum could be the downfield threat that our offense desperately needs in order to spread the field for our speedsters (althou iv heard some rumblings about roundtree being that guy for us, i just dont think his upside is as high as stonum)
schilling and the O-line in general - i think schilling will finally live up to his initial 5* hype now that he is in a position that better fits his abilities. i think all across the board our oline will be vastly improved from last yr. my only concern is at LT but i have faith
donovan warren - i think he will revert to his freshman form after a seriously disappointing season
performs below expectation:
mike martin - simply put i think the bar has just been put way too high for this kid and expectations will ultimately come back down to earth now that he wont be lining up next to will johnson and terrence taylor
brandon graham - i dont think he will have a bad season by normal standards, but i do think there will be a significant drop off from last yr as he will almost certainly be facing constant double team
will campbell - if he even plays, i think he will be less than stellar. but i still think his upside is incredible.
obie ezeh - i hope to god im wrong, because this will have a serious impact on the overall effectiveness of our defense, but his season last yr was simply unimpressive. i think he will prove to be no better than the 3rd best lb on the team, behind stevie brown (if considered a lb) and mouton
major questionmarks:
booboo - i really love the kids game and he sticks like a wet tshirt in coverage (it killed me to watch morgan trent and his 15 yard cushions.) but i fear that due to his vertical limitations he might be abused by bigger recievers.
tate - i really think that his deadly accuracy and his ability to scramble make him nearly ideal for this type of offense. he can throw on the run, spread the ball to our electrons, hit recievers on the slant routes, thrown the long ball...my only concern is that he had the reputation of being a bit of a gun slinger, and his decision making might be an issue. if he can minimize the turnovers i think he will solidify his starting role and really shock people with his ability to manage this offense
odoms - he, or whoever is in at slot, will be vital to the flow of our offense. odoms, afterall, was our leading reciever last yr (in terms of receptions.) he played pretty solidly last yr, but i still have concerns about his hands.
perform above expectation:
van bergen - my reasoning here is somewhat limited. for some reason i just like his potential, and i think he will be overlooked as a large portion of attention will be on graham and martin
stevie brown - (unless ur expecting first team all big ten at db) a lot of people have predicted this and i tend to agree. coaches have always been very high on this kid, and his skill level is superb. i think the position switch will really pay off.
troy woolfolk - he performed relatively well in his time in at corner. i think he will perform very well for us at safety
junior hemingway - i think hell bounce back from injury very strongly
stonum - he still wont block worth shit, but i think he will have flashes of the brilliance that many expected when he was recruited. maybe its just wishful thinking but stonum could be the downfield threat that our offense desperately needs in order to spread the field for our speedsters (althou iv heard some rumblings about roundtree being that guy for us, i just dont think his upside is as high as stonum)
schilling and the O-line in general - i think schilling will finally live up to his initial 5* hype now that he is in a position that better fits his abilities. i think all across the board our oline will be vastly improved from last yr. my only concern is at LT but i have faith
donovan warren - i think he will revert to his freshman form after a seriously disappointing season
performs below expectation:
mike martin - simply put i think the bar has just been put way too high for this kid and expectations will ultimately come back down to earth now that he wont be lining up next to will johnson and terrence taylor
brandon graham - i dont think he will have a bad season by normal standards, but i do think there will be a significant drop off from last yr as he will almost certainly be facing constant double team
will campbell - if he even plays, i think he will be less than stellar. but i still think his upside is incredible.
obie ezeh - i hope to god im wrong, because this will have a serious impact on the overall effectiveness of our defense, but his season last yr was simply unimpressive. i think he will prove to be no better than the 3rd best lb on the team, behind stevie brown (if considered a lb) and mouton
major questionmarks:
booboo - i really love the kids game and he sticks like a wet tshirt in coverage (it killed me to watch morgan trent and his 15 yard cushions.) but i fear that due to his vertical limitations he might be abused by bigger recievers.
tate - i really think that his deadly accuracy and his ability to scramble make him nearly ideal for this type of offense. he can throw on the run, spread the ball to our electrons, hit recievers on the slant routes, thrown the long ball...my only concern is that he had the reputation of being a bit of a gun slinger, and his decision making might be an issue. if he can minimize the turnovers i think he will solidify his starting role and really shock people with his ability to manage this offense
odoms - he, or whoever is in at slot, will be vital to the flow of our offense. odoms, afterall, was our leading reciever last yr (in terms of receptions.) he played pretty solidly last yr, but i still have concerns about his hands.
because I'm pretty sure the apostrophe key is sticking. Among others.
hey man, summer break...im resting my brain
but my favorite line is: "stonum - he will wont block."
Since you're resting your noggin, I will wont knock you for it, but it still cracks me up.
Key might be broken as well.
I find it interesting all the attention Ezeh seems to have gotten/be getting from the regional and national outlets. Nobody's saying he'll be a world-beater, but it seems everyone has him plugged as the second-best player on the defense simply because he's a 3rd year starter, but anyone who followed Brian's UFRs last season knows he's been something of a disappointment.
Mouton OTOH, made tremendous progress in the second half of last season, but has gotten very little attention outside the Michigan blogosphere. Hopefully the injury that kept him out of spring ball won't set him too far behind.
I'm excited that we have them both for two more years, and if they can play up to their potential, the Glorious Revolution could show results sooner than some think.
i think mouton will have a great yr, despite the injury. the only reason i didnt mention him was because i think expectation is already pretty high
concern is the need for stability on the D line. My HOPE is that Campbell is ready to contribute early on, as I believe we will need size and playmakers there... With as highly touted as Campbell was coming in, why do people think it will take a while for him to contribute on a regular basis?
that much because he was out of shape and overweight when he arrived, because he is at a position that rarely sees a true freshman make an impact, and he has gotten by with superior genetics but poor technique. Conditioning and technique improvement should see him become all Big Ten by the time he is finished, but probably not for a few years. Martin was considered a tremendous success because he was a true freshman, but his technique and conditioning were far superior to Campbell's and he had four seniors on the line so that when he came in to give someone a rest, he could go full out. Campbell will see playing time, but I expect his contribution to be less than Martin's last year.
based on what he did in spring camp, I get the feeling that Vincent Smith will break a couple long ones this year and make an excellent contribution for a freshman.
Y'know, there may be some pressure, so to speak, on some of the kids. The bar may be set high for some of them.
But this team is in Year 2 of Rodriguez and BARWIS. This team will be playing in an almost completed Big Hoose. This team is talented, though young, energetic, and now almost entirely of the makeup of the coach and his staff.
GERG is going to make a HUGE difference, even in Year 1. I use the precedent of not just one, but TWO Year 1's with Bo Pellini at Nebraska. What a difference a solid DC can make. What a difference a true leader at DC can make. And if these players aren't buying into GERG and his Super Bowl rings, they need labotomies. And heart transplants. All aspects of the defense will be better. He is more important than any recruit--even George Morales.
Offensively, the OL will be dominant. The team will not commit silly penalties. Turnovers will decrease.
In short, the entire team will play above expectations. One factor I cite is their youth--they are too young to give a shit, and too young to worry about anything.
Barring injury, the ever present X-Factor, improvement and performing beyond expectations is going to be certain. I have studied this and thought about it, and daydreamed about it intensely over the last few weeks (always at the expense of paying attention to my family), and that is my conclusion.
The University of Ohio State.
What players justify their mid-Top 10 ranking?
Terrelle Pryor? Kurt Coleman?
And on to Penn State. Not nearly as much hype there, I'm thinking, but they have to replace about half of their starting units, including all WRs and three OL.
(Ignoring Iowa, which is returning well-intact...)
Michigan State? The not-so-potent 2008 offense has to replace Ringer & QB Hoyer and two OL. The D is well-intact featuring Greg Jones.
Illinois? Wisconsin?
That's not exactly murderers' row. I think there's quite a chance that in aggregate the strength of our opponents will underachieve. And just based on talent mean-reversion increase (other than Terrance Taylor we won't see much of a drop-off), I think Mich might really surprise this year.
Regarding Tate: I don't THINK decision making will be much of an issue, but consider this:
If our team still has some building to do to grow into something great (a given. They're on their way, but not there YET), then it might be nice to have a guy looking to make plays when things just aren't quite working. Could it hurt us sometimes? Sure, but I think more often it would help.
Plus I'm not sure if the sweatervest would be very good at dealing with such a character. He's used to playing it pretty tight.
He did throw 15 picks his senior year.
At least he is completing passes to SOMEONE and not throwing the ball into the ground or 30 feet over his receivers head. Just give our receivers a chance, thats all he has to do.
coachBT OR erocwolverine? The FONDNESS for random CAPS is very telling.
Here are what players must do in my epinion to exceed or not exceed e-epectations:
Exceed:
1. Low pad level
2. Play hard
3. Play to whistle
3b. Play hard to whistle
4. Be fast
5. Get stronger
6. Everyone redshirts (including starters)
7. S. Brown plays good
8. Tate not a freshman
Unexceed:
1. High pad level (pads higher than grass=fail)
2. Play soft
3. Stop before whistle
4. Receivers don't block lineman (our should be so good each WR can block entire DL)
5. No hustle
6. Not able to sprint for 60 minutes (no more country club Carr)
7. No redshirts
8. S. Brown plays
9. Tate is freshman
...
Depth!
I just laughed out loud in my cubicle.
much more than his brains.
I think the question mark for Tate is warranted as far as his living up to expectations, if our expectations are for him to be the next McCoy or Tebow this year.
However, I'm much less worried about him being a true freshman for the following reason: our QBs last year were as inexperienced as he is now, just with less talent. So many screen passes and short throws would have been completed with anything resembling competence.
I don't expect him to set the world on fire, but I do expect him to avoid (for the most part) the blown screens and missed wide open receivers.
I don't expect Tate to be the guy beating teams, but I expect him to do what we're most excited about, throw completions. For Tate to meet my expectations, he merely has to have a decent completion percentage and throw a 25+ yard pass every now and then. As long as he does that, I'll be very happy with him. And I think as long as he does that, our offense as a whole will be beating teams (with Minor probably as the "feature" player).
To exceed my expectations, he'll have to be able to get the first down with his feet when we need it and there's nobody open. I was at the spring game so I have some idea of what he can do, but honestly I think of him much more as QB with an arm that happens to have legs rather than the other way around.
about his feet, making an ad lib play, is something the coaches seem pretty confident he (and/or Denard) can get done. Even if Tate/Denard can keep 1 to 2 more drives a alive a game (not an unreasonable clip, is it?), those kinds of plays seem to yank the heart out of defenses.
I've been so sick of mobile QBs doing this to Michigan for years. The idea M might turn the tables on someone? Yes please, I'll have the cosmic justice special and a side of Monty Burns "Ehhxcellent"
if the entire d-line ex Van Bergen under performs.
Will he ever live up to his hype? Every year so far there has been some article about how Brown was going to be awesome....and then we see him getting burned by Toledo WR's. I'm hoping that with the switch in position to Robinson's hybrid role that Brown will actually be successful. Brown has always shown flashes of being great but then other times it was almost as if he was just playing a different position. Hopefully he works out this year because we really need him and his leadership.
I remember Brian making a comment last season along the lines of, they've got Stevie rushing the QB every play and telling him to forget about coverage, and this role suits him. (I think it was in one of the UFRs, but I'm not sure which one.) Stevie could do well in this defensive role, when the guys he'd have to cover in passing situations are RBs or TEs, never a slot...
*I decided "Stevie" would be better than "Brownie"...just saying.
August 3rd, 2009 at 12:35 AM ^
behind him. Take advantage of his athleticism but lose the last-line-of-defense responsibilities.
(Yeah, a LB can make TD gift-wrapping mistakes, but it's less likely.)
The nice thing about gunslingers is that they're entertaining. Look at Favre. Is there anyone in the world who didn't like watching him play when he was at his peak? And supposedly Romo is built in the same mold.
Gunslingers may not always pick the best option, but they believe in themselves and are willing to try things that others aren't willing to do. This helps improve game time maturity and leadership. This helps helps them become great leaders.
All this means they are usually sucessful. And I wouldn't be surprised if RR has a little room in there for gunslinging.
And that's exactly how it played out for Rex Grossman.
The problem with the offense if that you have a true frosh at QB and not a lot of experience to protect him. Henne could always just throw the ball up and let Braylon do the rest, but there isn't that go to guy right now, either at RB or WR. Hopefully, Minor emerges and becomes a reliable guy who can get at least 4 yards on each play.
I expect a lot of protection for Tate in the form of an easy playbook and what not, for him and for the rest of the inexperienced offense. Ideally, a speedback can emerge alongside Minor on offense to take some of the pressure off.
Tate is a spread QB but has opposite qualities to Pat White. He's accurate and can throw on the run, but he's not as fast or elusive as White. It'll be very interesting to see how RR adjusts to this, though he does have D. Rob. in case. Hopefully, D. Rob. can see some action just to elude defenses as well.
Defensively, there is poor talent/inexperience or both at the important spinner position and the safety core. There will be a lot of pressure on Graham and the D-Line to get max pressure and stop the run immediately before the LBs get involved. I've never been a big Ezeh fan because he's too slow and he always gets burned by TEs. The corners must improve as well and can't get injured because there is little depth at that position.
Health will be very important next year. There isn't a lot of depth at most positions so it's vital that key pieces don't go down to injury.
Let me say this about Henne as a freshman, yes, all he had to to was throw the ball 30-60 yards to a spot and Braylon would catch it, but give him some credit, he got the ball there, many senior QB's can't do that.
Minor averaged 5 yards per carry last year. We have a better OLine, a QB that can throw so defenses can't put 8 in the box the whole time, and he now has two arms. He should be a lot better.
Good diary. One comment I would like to make is in regards to Brandon Graham. IMO if he does end up facing constant double teams, yes, his numbers will see a decrease, but this does not imply that he will perform below expectations. It's a great thing if your players require double blocking/coverage/etc because that frees up space for your other teammates to penetrate. If he breaks through those double teams and still produces TFLs and sacks (which he will undoubtably do), then that's even better. If BG only makes 5 sacks on the year but our DTs and deathbackers are shooting into the backfield and piling up great stats, then he's done his job.
But yes, if you mean that he will not meet the expectations of fans who are hoping for a 15-sack season, then I'm inclined to agree with you.
that is precisely what i was referring to. i dont think his skills or abilities have decreased. in fact, he was one of the players who benefited the most from a yr with barwis, so as an individual player he should only be better. but if fans are expecting his numbers to improve or even match last season, i think they will be sadly mistaken.
I don't agree with all of the OP, but regarding Martin I think he has a good point. I was impressed by Martin last year, but I think it's likely a different situation for him this year due to the graduations on the line. Having said that, he should be much improved, but without the guys he had around him last year it will be a challenge.
I say Koger's gonna have a big season for us. He has a lot of potential, he caused the coaches to go to OK to learn more about the TE, and their gameplans. He's too big safeties, and too fast for LB, and I say he's gonna be a pretty damn good TE for Michigan. I'm thinking around 40 rec, 500 rec yards, and 5 TD's
the ability is def there. in my opinion, it will really come down to how he is utilized. i think he can be a go to guy on 3rd down or in the redzone. but i also think he could be a great bailout reciever when plays break down
I remember a lot of people being pretty excited about Fitzgerald Toussaint and his potential, and quite concerned when it was rumored that he might not be eligible this year. Now, I don't hear too many people talking about him. He's obviously passed the clearinghouse because he was given a number, and I am hoping to see him contribute this year, too.
I definitely agree with tomhagan about Vincent Smith, with the only caveat being that Smith can be caught from behind on occasion. On the other hand, he starts fairly quick, changes directions extremely quick, is deceptively fluid, and is extremely intelligent at reading the field and following blocks.
I also hope he gets some chances to return kicks. He changed the field position of a very close HS championship game in the late fourth quarter with a kickoff return of 38 yards to "beyond midfield" (Since I don't take notes while watching games on TV, I don't remember the exact location, and had to rely on the newspaper account), and Pahokee was able to pull the game out with 55 seconds left. I also remember Smith getting a pick in the second half, but nobody mentions that he ever played defense, at least in 2008.
Anyway, if anyone is interested, here is the game story:
http://www.varsitygridiron.com/index.php/Football-News/State/pahokee-ga…
What's really exciting about this year is that there are probably ten players who could have breakout seasons, and many of them are freshmen.
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