All numbers included in this preview are using my PAN metric, Points Above Normal. PAN is essentially how many points above an average FBS team was a team/unit/player worth. For reference, an average FBS is approximately equal to Illinois or a top team from the MAC.

All games against FCS teams are excluded, as well as any plays in the second half where one team leads by more than 2 touchdowns or any end of half run out the clock situations.

Post Game Notes

I noted in the preview it would be tough to reach the +18 projected on the ground for Michigan. In “countable” plays (basically the first half) Michigan only reached +13 and if you count the whole game it was a staggering +31, and that’s just on the ground.

In the first two games Denard put up matching +12’s on the ground. Against Bowling Green he must have pretended to be hurt to keep that number in tact. In only five carries Denard managed to add +11.5 in value. Before adjusting for strength of opponent, Denard now owns the #5, 7 and 8th best ground performances of the year. Of the other five performances, all but Daniel Thomas’s work against UCLA were against defensive patsies such as Washington St, New Mexico, Nevada and Tulane.

Adding to the damage running backs Smith, Toussaint, Cox & Shaw were all at least +2, as were both of the other QB’s. The QB’s were all highly effective through the air, as well. Robinson was +4.5, Gardner +5 and Tate was +8.

The defense allowed Bowling Green to hit +5 on the day, with the difference between break even and where they finished being almost exactly equal to the screen that broke for the long TD. Apart from that play, the defense kept Bowling Green equivalent to their expected points during both regular and garbage time.

Projections

Team projections are still pretty fluid after 4 weeks but are beginning to come into a bit of focus.

Michigan’s win total projection is still hovering in the 8-9 range with no Big 10 teams separating from the pack outside of Ohio State. With so many games near toss-up status, there are still quite a few scenarios showing 10+ wins or 6-7, but the odds of missing a bowl game at this point are less than the odds of going 12-0.

Remaining Schedule

@ Indiana – rank 58, 65% chance of winning

Michigan State - 36, 66%

Iowa - 17, 57%

@ Penn State - 28, 44%

Illinois - 70,90%

@ Purdue - 83,76%

Wisconsin - 34, 65%

@ Ohio State - 6, 17%

Most of the win odds are pretty similar to last week with the exception of Purdue which went from a toss-up to strong lean after another poor showing by the Boilermakers.

Projected Big 10 Standings

I currently have the Big 10 projecting to be Ohio State, then two groups of 5 teams. Iowa, Penn St, Michigan, Michigan St and Wisconsin are all projecting out to around 5-3 while NW, Indiana, Minnesota, Illinois and Purdue are all in the bottom bunch at 2-3 conference wins.

Ballot

Teams that have played 4 FBS opponents are now fully based on in-season results (although opponent strength adjustment still partially includes last season). Most of the rest of teams have played 3 FBS games and are 75% in season results and 25% pre-season.  

Two WAC teams at the top obviously won’t last but for now their wins are as strong as most teams as the “computer” tends to overinflate big wins against bad teams early in the season.