Motor City Bowl, Detroit, 7:30pm Florida Atlantic vs Central Michigan. Lines, CMU -7.5, O/U 69.5 Bowl season kicks into a second gear tonight with the first of nine straight days of bowl games with tonight being one of the few days where there's not more the one game being played. And, nothing says 'bowl season' more than the long awaited matchup between the third best team in the MAC, Central Michigan, and the second best team in the Sun Belt, Florida Atlantic. If you think this matchup is lame, then blame our own beloved Big 10 Conference. After putting two teams into the BCS, the league was unable to qualify its requisite teams (I'm looking at you Illinois and Michigan) and, as a result, the Owls from Miami were imported up to Detroit for this game. Surprisingly, I consider this a pretty solid game between equal mid majors. The spread should be about a field goal, so with one team favored by a smidge more than a TD, I think we have a solid bet tonight with FAU. I love this QB matchup between the Chips Dan Lefevour and the Owls Rusty Smith. Both teams were preseason favorites to win their leagues and are looking to cap off relatively disappointing seasons with a bowl win. Both teams ought to be urgent, they're both well coached and they both have NFL prospects playing quarterback. Translation: This should be a fun, high scoring, close contest that wont be decided until very late in the contest. Defense will be optional in this one. When the Owls have the ball, FAU's QB Rusty Smith will lead one of the nation's better passing attacks against CMU's 118th ranked passing D. That's next to last in the country for those keeping score at home. The Chips allow more than 30 points per game, never a good stat for a team favored to win by a touchdown. Smith threw for over 2,900 yards, and that was considered a disappointing season for the junior. However, he enters the game on a roll with 14 TD passes in his final four games. I expect him to have a big game tonight to set the stage for a huge senior campaign next fall. Meanwhile, we all know about the Chips offense. LeFevour puts up Tebow-esque stats and is as dangerous running as he is throwing. Injuries derailed him a bit this year, but he enters this game as healthy as ever, and, like Smith on the other side, he wants to make a statement tonight heading into his wown senior season next year. Statistically, FAU's D is better than CMU's, but they're still in the bottom third is categories like passing D and scoring D. CMU will be able to do damage. Both teams come into this game having allowed 50 points in their final regular season game of the season. I'd say expect a shootout tonight. I like the Owls to cover the number for a variety of reasons. First, lets consider bowl history. If you're looking for some basic bowl wagering strategy, jot this one down: Before Christmas, take favorites; after Christmas, take underdogs; and once January rolls arounds, hop back on the favorites. Bowl dogs betweem Xmas and New Years have covered the number 58% percent of the time since 1990. So, if you take every dog from now through 12/31, you will likely turn, at worst, a small profit. Why not start tonight with an offense that wont be stopped getting a TD head start? Two, within that history is the following juicy tidbit: Bowl dogs of +7 to +16.5 are 60-34-1 after Christmas Day since 1998. So, if we limit our 'play dogs on the blind' theory to within those numbers, we will increase our likely profit. We have several bowls to close December that fit this bill, and I will be on all of them. Hopefully, history holds true. There's been only one season where this produced a losing record and it was in 2001 when it netted a 2-3 mark. Third, FAU's coach Howard Schnellenberger has never lost a bowl game. This guy is one the greatest coaches in our lifetime and he specializes in long term reclamation projects. He has created FAU from scratch. He knows how to win, and he knows how to win bowls games. Against Central, he is not facing a more talented team. He's the more proven coach, in my mind, tonight and his gameplan will reflect that. I would be surprised if FAU did not take a level of control of this game early on. CMU will be fine in catchup mode, they wont fade. But, getting a seven point head start with a equally talented Schnellengerger team is too tempting to pass up. Fourth, while both Defenses are sub par and will be on the run all night, I do like FAU's defense a little bit more. CMU is a bit banged up in the secondary. More importanly is the fact that I feel FAU has better individual talent on that side of the ball and, as a result, might be able to get more stops as the game wears on into the second half. Watch Owl LB Franz Joseph. He will be the best defender on the field tonight. A tackling machine, he has played his best against dual threat type QBs such as the one he'll play against tonight. He had more than 14 tackles against the three spread type teams they faced this year in Minnesota, ULL and UAB. I think his presence will be able to neutralize the running part of Lefevour. That will be enough to keep CMU from running away in this one. Meanwhile, the strength of CMU's D is its pass rush, but that plays into a big strength of FAU's offense, its pass protection. Smith, thanks to his OL and his own quick release of the ball, has only been sacked 12 times this season. Central has played nothing but close games this season regardless if they're playing a top notch foe from their league or one of the bottom wrung MAC teams. Its too much to ask of them to win this going away against a team that is probably faster and more athletic than your typical MAC team. Smith will match Lefevour throughout the game. The Owls might just pull the upset and this CFB fan would not be surprised. The Pick: FAU +7.5, 2 Units; Over 69.5, 1 Unit.....someone is going to win this game 41-38 with a field goal at the buzzer